Do the Twins promote their college relievers too slowly?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Here's a link to a thing I've been working on.  Link here.  Warning: it's long. Chargois should be in the majors, and the TL;DR answer is, yes they probably promote too slowly, but it depends. 

 

Also, promote Hildenberger and maybe some others to AAA. They have pitched well and need better competition. The Twins are taking it too slow with those guys, in my opinion. Relievers are not like starters, with innings counts to watch. 

 

However, there is good evidence the Twins had Burdi on a fast track to be promoted last year if his season didn't go in the tank. Absent any direct confirmation or denial from someone in the front office, I would say early on, during their hot start but before they demoted him, they had Burdi in mind for a September call up. 

 

Anyway, this study is in the same vein as what LENIII and a couple other TD posters did a few weeks ago with the Twins and developing starting pitchers. I had fun with it. Plenty of data and words so probably a keystroke is off somewhere. I am still fact checking it but hope no more corrections are necessary at this point. Comments welcome.

[old nurse]

If in how many years of base ball you can find but a few college relievers to compare Chargois and others to then the sample size renders it as interesting at best.  Cherry picked names at worst.  Similar players starting out?  Not by draft position. One would expect relievers drafted in the first round to move through faster. 2 pitches is all they need. If a reliever is that talented a team is taking them in the first or second round they ought to be up quickly.

[h2oface]

Yes

[old nurse]

By the way, Kevin Chapman says he other college pitchers that were relievers throughout college did you miss? Comparable to Chargois in that he was a later round draft pick

[twinssouth]

YES,YES, YES. There's no reason to have a Rameriz or Burnett block AA promotions. Both those guys are journeyman AAA relievers. Zack Jones, Hildenberger after his DL stint, Jake Reed should all be moved up to Rochester. They all can polish their craft at a higher level, let them sink or swim in AAA

 

 

This pattern the Twins have where pitchers toil in the lower levels, then spend shorter time in AAA and either get promoted or jettisoned, to me, makes no sense. I'd rather have a prospect spend a couple of years or less in AAA to make the case for promotion. Seems to me, other teams, like the Cardinals or White Sox to name a few, feel that way.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, Milone being on the roster right now is pointless.  Nothing against Milone, but with the acquisition of Santiago, he has virtually no chance of being on the team in 2017.  He's not going to build any waiver trade interest as a mop-up reliever either.  He's only owed $1.5 mil at this point, if no one claims him, just send him outright to AAA again if he accepts.  He can reinforce Rochester's rotation for the stretch drive, or if he elects to forfeit the salary, he can get a head start on free agency.

 

Chargois, Mejia, Light, and Melotakis are all on the 40-man roster and more worthwhile investments of MLB innings for the 2016 Twins at this point.  Jones, Baxendale, and Wheeler will all be eligible for the Rule 5 draft too if they are not added to the roster in November, so one or more could deserve a look right now.  You could probably even make a case to look at former first rounder Wimmers, or re-evaluate the magic LOOGY potential of O'Rourke, both of whom will be minor league free agents this winter if not added to the 40-man roster.

 

(By the way, nice article.  I'm not sure the sample size lends itself to much analysis, but I appreciate the effort!)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

By the way, Kevin Chapman says he other college pitchers that were relievers throughout college did you miss? Comparable to Chargois in that he was a later round draft pick

I wouldn't call Chargois a "later round pick" but you raise a good point. There are some assumptions I didn't make explicit enough. What do MLB organizations consider a valuable draft pick? No idea, so I spitballed it here as top two rounds. You could then ask why the Twins draft guys like Chargois in the second round when there are guys like Chapman available to draft in the fourth round.

[diehardtwinsfan]

In all honesty, I think this 'Twins promote too slow' has been pretty thoroughly debunked at this point, especially given the number of guys who have been promoted of late that were clearly not ready.  There's definitely a case to be made for pitchers more than hitters, but I'd hardly argue that a guy like Berrios has been moved slowly. Yes, we get frustrated when we see a guy putting up good numbers and not getting moved up as quick as we'd like, but we can find plenty of people who are. This comes down to the simple fact that a lot of this happens on case by case basis, and not everything a player needs to do necessarily shows up in a box score. You also have to add in the fact that with every promotion, a corresponding roster move needs to be made both above and below said player, which includes player cuts and having someone below that can move up to take the promoted player's place.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

YES,YES, YES. There's no reason to have a Rameriz or Burnett block AA promotions. Both those guys are journeyman AAA relievers.

Yup.  Ramirez in particular doesn't seem to be contributing much to any Rochester playoff push, and he will be a minor league free agent at season's end if not added back to the 40-man roster.

 

It seems beyond obvious to drop Milone and Ramirez, and promote Chargois and Jones or Melotakis in their place.  You could even make a case for dropping Dean, he's had a poor season at AAA and will be dropped from the 40-man in a couple months anyway.  (Unfortunately, Darnell is hurt, but they could start Baxendale in his place, or promote a AA starter -- Hurlbut, Slegers, or Eades.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In all honesty, I think this 'Twins promote too slow' has been pretty thoroughly debunked at this point, especially given the number of guys who have been promoted of late that were clearly not ready.

It could be both things -- the Twins could be poor at developing talent, and they could promote too slowly.  It's hard to separate the two, though, and obviously the first one takes precedence!

 

I generally agree, though -- I don't think there is a systematic problem of "too slow" promotions.  I think the Twins do have a problem with stacking rosters with dead-enders though (see my posts above).  A team in the Twins position can and should be looking at more useful pitchers at AAA, and in MLB before September.  They tend to inexplicably hold on to guys like Milone and Aaron Thompson for too long, denying opportunities for more interesting pitchers, and leave a lot more questions for themselves every November (around Rule 5 protection time) and every spring.

[nicksaviking]

If I had one issue (aside from Chargois not being on the 25-man now) it's that I don't like regularly sending the college pitchers from big time programs to the Rookie Leagues.

 

And a few of them don't, but it just seems to me that these guys aren't really being pushed when they go from playing 22-year-olds in the SEC and PAC 12 to 19-year-olds in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian League.

[bird]

 

In all honesty, I think this 'Twins promote too slow' has been pretty thoroughly debunked at this point, especially given the number of guys who have been promoted of late that were clearly not ready.  There's definitely a case to be made for pitchers more than hitters, but I'd hardly argue that a guy like Berrios has been moved slowly. Yes, we get frustrated when we see a guy putting up good numbers and not getting moved up as quick as we'd like, but we can find plenty of people who are. This comes down to the simple fact that a lot of this happens on case by case basis, and not everything a player needs to do necessarily shows up in a box score. You also have to add in the fact that with every promotion, a corresponding roster move needs to be made both above and below said player, which includes player cuts and having someone below that can move up to take the promoted player's place.

 

 

 

First of all, Hosken, I applaud the massive effort you put into this! Thank you!

 

That said, I'm in the camp that sees the "slow promotion" thing as a complexity that makes comparative analysis a nightmare. But moreso, I just don't view it as a critical determinant in the big picture. The goal isn't to move guys quickly, it's to get them ready for success in MLB against very steep odds.

 

The most daunting challenge for these guys is health. Almost 30% of these pitchers suffer injuries that set them back or totally derail them. I may be slightly inaccurate here, but I count 7 relief prospects selected by the Twins between 2011 and 2014. One of them flunked out, Madison Boer. You may recall that he was a bit of a problem child for them, and had trouble staying in shape and dedicating himself to the game. The other 6 have all had significant time away due to injury or illness. Aside from the fact that it's impressive that all 6 are still considered viable prospects, delays due to injury and illness deserve proper acknowledgment, and that's usually ignored to a huge extent when people lambast the Twins because they have nothing to show for all those high draft picks used on relievers. There are a lot of teams that would love to have delayed the advancement and still have the possibilities of Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis, Cedaroth, Corey Williams, and Bard, the other 6 prospects taken by the Twins between 2011 and 2014 in Round 3 or earlier.

 

If one fails to take into consideration this extraordinary rash of serious injuries, one is going to conclude two things: 1. the Twins systemically are slow promoters, and 2. they suck at talent evaluation and/or at developing talent. I personally don't believe this organization is either exceptional at these things or is deficient compared to the competition. And I don't see evidence of a systemically slow promotion process. This research isn't conclusive in my opinion. 

 

I think people have a legitimate complaint in some cases. Chargois right now for example. But in general, we have statistics at our disposal and usually nothing else. We don't know if Hildenberger, to throw a name out there, is working with the AA staff on specific things which are driving a decision to keep him in Chattanooga. Maybe the next guy is having a hard time keeping his watch functioning right around curfew, or cries in the clubhouse after he's pulled from a game. There are very likely other important factors at play in these promotion decisions that we just don't know about or maybe don't care to consider if we're in the mood for fault-finding.

[bird]

 

Yup.  Ramirez in particular doesn't seem to be contributing much to any Rochester playoff push, and he will be a minor league free agent at season's end if not added back to the 40-man roster.

 

It seems beyond obvious to drop Milone and Ramirez, and promote Chargois and Jones or Melotakis in their place.  You could even make a case for dropping Dean, he's had a poor season at AAA and will be dropped from the 40-man in a couple months anyway.  (Unfortunately, Darnell is hurt, but they could start Baxendale in his place, or promote a AA starter -- Hurlbut, Slegers, or Eades.)

 

 

These are all very legitimate complaints in my view.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, we only know what we know......but no one has said Hildenberger is anything other than a good team mate, and he's utterly dominating talent that is not a challenge for him at all. If the AAA coaches can't work with him as well as the AA coaches, that is a problem......

 

I think RP are promoted too slowly, and not trusted enough. They seem willing to trust bad veterans, in lost seasons......there is no reason for both Milone and Boshers to be on that roster right now. There is no reason for Hildenberger to be in AA right now. There are guys in AAA that aren't part of the future.....there are more than enough guys in the lower levels to move guys up in the system. 

 

I think the hitters have been slow played thru lower levels, and rushed thru higher levels. I think the RPs have wasted their innings to some degree in the minors, but birdwatcher is correct, there have been a lot of injuries. I think the SPs look like they are on reasonable paths right now. 

 

Looking at the MLB, AAA and other rosters, it is reasonable, imo, to question some of the placement right now.

[bird]

 

If I had one issue (aside from Chargois not being on the 25-man now) it's that I don't like regularly sending the college pitchers from big time programs to the Rookie Leagues.

 

And a few of them don't, but it just seems to me that these guys aren't really being pushed when they go from playing 22-year-olds in the SEC and PAC 12 to 19-year-olds in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian League.

 

 

I think this is to a large extent a fallacy, nick. I've been periodically comparing the bios of the opposing starters versus the Twins in both the Appy and GCL to satisfy my own curiosity, and I'm just not seeing a pattern. However, if in a given year one team has a larger number of DSL graduates to promote and another team loaded up on late round college guys in this year's draft (and this happens), it might be a short-term thing. But I don't believe you're going to discover that some teams are placing college guys in general at a higher level. That said, I suppose there may be a chance that the Twins draft more college guys from obscure programs and fewer from the Vandy's of the world and that this could factor in to placement decisions. But again, I'm just not seeing a difference when I compare our guy to the other guy regarding age, draft order, signing date, and # of IP's.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It could be both things -- the Twins could be poor at developing talent, and they could promote too slowly.  It's hard to separate the two, though, and obviously the first one takes precedence!

 

I generally agree, though -- I don't think there is a systematic problem of "too slow" promotions.  I think the Twins do have a problem with stacking rosters with dead-enders though (see my posts above).  A team in the Twins position can and should be looking at more useful pitchers at AAA, and in MLB before September.  They tend to inexplicably hold on to guys like Milone and Aaron Thompson for too long, denying opportunities for more interesting pitchers, and leave a lot more questions for themselves every November (around Rule 5 protection time) and every spring.

 

I'm sure the two are tied together in some way; I cannot really argue there. I do think though that development is a bit bigger of a problem with this organization, and I hope that the new GM adds some resources in that area in particular.

[alarp33]

Yes. 

 

To use Chargois as an example - what exactly is he learning at AAA right now? He's almost 26 years old, he's a 1 inning per outing pitcher, who throws 2-3 pitches. I'm assuming its nothing mechanical.. what is being gained by having him in AAA?  The pitcher he is at 25/26, can't be much different than the pitcher he's ever going to be (especially in terms of "stuff"), right?  

 

I certainly understand bringing 18 year old starters (Stewart, Berrios, etc) along slowly, they have tons to learn in the minors.  But for the life of me I can't understand why college relievers need a full year per level. 

[bird]

 

Well, we only know what we know......but no one has said Hildenberger is anything other than a good team mate, and he's utterly dominating talent that is not a challenge for him at all. If the AAA coaches can't work with him as well as the AA coaches, that is a problem......

 

I think RP are promoted too slowly, and not trusted enough. They seem willing to trust bad veterans, in lost seasons......there is no reason for both Milone and Boshers to be on that roster right now. There is no reason for Hildenberger to be in AA right now. There are guys in AAA that aren't part of the future.....there are more than enough guys in the lower levels to move guys up in the system. 

 

I think the hitters have been slow played thru lower levels, and rushed thru higher levels. I think the RPs have wasted their innings to some degree in the minors, but birdwatcher is correct, there have been a lot of injuries. I think the SPs look like they are on reasonable paths right now. 

 

Looking at the MLB, AAA and other rosters, it is reasonable, imo, to question some of the placement right now.

 

 

I agree that it's reasonable to question some of the placement right now.

 

I don't completely agree with the generalization about the slow promotion as a part of the development process and there being a lack of trust. There are many times when it's frustrating to see these washed up AAAA guys in AAA. They weren't blocking Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Jones. Peterson, Hildenberger, or even Chargois to begin the 2016 season. Boshers and Kintzler probably had success with the big club when Reed and Melotakis would have failed them earlier in the season. But now, in August, it's tough to see Ramirez and Burnett in AAA while Hildenberger and Reed are looking very good statistically speaking. And it's hard to see Chargois in AAA when they're parading Boshers and Milone out there.

[Kwak]

If we limit discussion to college-aged relief pitchers who are planned to be a relief pitcher--then a clear yes!

The minor leagues aren't about "learning" it's about "proving". The guy either has "it" or he doesn't have it. Without "it", the pitcher is not a prospect he is a project--filler to be used for each minor league team. If, by chance, a guy tries a trick pitch (splitter, fork ball, whatever) then he grinds his way slowly. Those pitchers should not be used as your "development method"--they are the 2nd and 3rd chance-type guys that occasionally make it to the majors.

 

Comparison to the position players, starting pitchers is not useful--apples/oranges argument.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If one fails to take into consideration this extraordinary rash of serious injuries, one is going to conclude two things: 1. the Twins systemically are slow promoters, and 2. they suck at talent evaluation and/or at developing talent. I personally don't believe this organization is either exceptional at these things or is deficient compared to the competition.

Couldn't the injury thing play strongly into issue #2 (evaluation and development)?  The Twins by their own admission were not properly factoring health into their draft selections prior to 2012, it's quite possible that they still aren't doing it well or that the weakness extends into the development side.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is no reason for Hildenberger to be in AA right now. 

Actually, there might be reason for Hildenberger to be in AA.  There are probably about 6-9 guys ahead of him in MLB/AAA evaluation priority right now (guys on the 40-man roster, or guys that could be lost this winter).

[Jham]

So I asked this question in the game thread the other day, is Chargois better than Michael Tonkin?  We burned through all of Tonkin's option years bringing him up when he wasn't ready but had "nothing to prove" in the minors.  If he's not better than Tonkin, is Chargois being moved too slowly or too quickly?  He's burned option year 1 for 1 appearance at this point...

If Chargois isn't better than Tonkin, AND he's the best reliever in the system... are we moving guys up too slow, or does it just seem that way because we don't have actual elite prospects in the pen to compare to, and the major league squad is so dysfunctional that it's hard not to get anxious.  

In short, I think the overall hope and plan with college relievers is that you can advance them quickly.  But then you have to draft the right ones, which we haven't.  Hopefully we hit on one in the near future and the discussion will be less hypothetical.

[kellyvance]

I fully expected Burdi and Reed to be with the big club by now. Same with JT.  Its not like the guys we have in the show are better. We are going with a youth movement. I've said for 2 years now that it is time to let the kids play and get some major league experience. Maybe that would allow them to start 2017 off better than 0-9. 

[kellyvance]

I fully expected Burdi and Reed to be with the big club by now. Same with JT.  Its not like the guys we have in the show are better. We are going with a youth movement. I've said for 2 years now that it is time to let the kids play and get some major league experience. Maybe that would allow them to start 2017 off better than 0-9. 

[bird]

 

Couldn't the injury thing play strongly into issue #2 (evaluation and development)?  The Twins by their own admission were not properly factoring health into their draft selections prior to 2012, it's quite possible that they still aren't doing it well or that the weakness extends into the development side.

 

It could. It likely was, prior to 2012, something that led to a mistake or two, Luke Bard perhaps most glaringly. But I would think that if there are lingering weaknesses at either talent evaluation or in development of pitching, we have to literally explain away a few dozen really compelling success stories. We can find multiple successes at all levels within the organization, from Tonkin, to Rogers, to Hildenberger, and on down. There are a ton of later round draft picks delivering impressive results and advancing at a good pace. We can't just consider these to be cases where this is happening despite of poor evaluation and coaching instead of because of good evaluation and coaching. The amazing thing is that a lot of these guys will still stall out or become forgettable major leaguers, but this is the case with every organization of course.

 

[Mike Sixel]

In fairness.....they didn't make Rogers a RP until very recently, when some here thought he should be up last year as a RP. To me, that was a great example of not trusting young players last year (or even this year) as RPs, while leaving bad veterans in MN. But, to bird's point, it might be more situation specific than I am giving them credit for. OTOH, we have seen teams like STL and CHISOX have great success bringing guys like Rogers up to pitch out of the pen a bit faster than MN does it.

[bird]

 

I fully expected Burdi and Reed to be with the big club by now. Same with JT.  Its not like the guys we have in the show are better. We are going with a youth movement. I've said for 2 years now that it is time to let the kids play and get some major league experience. Maybe that would allow them to start 2017 off better than 0-9. 

 

 

Reed had an ERA over 5 most of the year. In AA. Burdi has been injured virtually all year. Still is. 

[tobi0040]

I feel like the Twins are in limbo and Antony knows his job is temporary, so he is punting all the bigger decisions to the next GM. So I really hope they fill the role before the end of the season, and sooner rather than later.

 

The guys moved at the deadline were no-brainers. But I am not sure we will see any guys that have a chance at being here next year DFA’d or traded. Ervin, Dozier, Plouffe, likely even Milone.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I feel like the Twins are in limbo and Antony knows his job is temporary, so he is punting all the bigger decisions to the next GM. So I really hope they fill the role before the end of the season, and sooner rather than later.

The guys moved at the deadline were no-brainers. But I am not sure we will see any guys that have a chance at being here next year DFA’d or traded. Ervin, Dozier, Plouffe, likely even Milone.

 

I don't agree.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It could. It likely was, prior to 2012, something that led to a mistake or two, Luke Bard perhaps most glaringly. But I would think that if there are lingering weaknesses at either talent evaluation or in development of pitching, we have to literally explain away a few dozen really compelling success stories.

There aren't that many "really compelling success stories" or we probably wouldn't be in this position today.

 

I suspect you could put a chimp who can read BA's pre-draft rankings in charge of the draft, and staff the minor league coaching spots somewhat randomly from within the industry, and you'll still wind up with a few "really compelling success stories" on the level of Tonkin over time.