Article: Hector "Houdini" Santiago: New Pitcher Excels With Runners On

[Tom Froemming]

In the wake of the Twins acquiring Hector Santiago from the Angels, some have questioned how big of an upgrade he'll be over Ricky Nolasco, mainly pointing to Nolasco's vastly superior numbers in terms of FIP (fielding independent pitching). While the peripheral stats may be in Nolasco's favor, they don't tell the whole story.The biggest divide between these two players is how they bear down when things start to not go in their favor. If you take a look into how each pitcher performs with runners on, it's clear that while Nolasco crumbles, Santiago shines

 

Career FIP vs. ERA

Santiago: 4.63 FIP, 3.68 ERA (0.95 worse)

Nolasco: 3.85 FIP, 4.58 ERA (0.73 better)

 

So you can see that both pitchers have been FIP busters, with Santiago looking a great deal worse than the ERA he has pitched to. These kinds of gaps are abnormal for veteran pitchers. Just for reference, Ervin Santana's FIP and ERA are only off by a difference of 0.11 over his career (4.24 FIP, 4.13 ERA).

 

FIP is a great indicator of pitcher performance because it only looks at home runs, walks, hit batsmen and strikeouts. As the name indicates, any plays in which defense is a factor are not taken into account. Another thing FIP doesn't take into account, however, is game situation. Obviously, it's better to not allow batters to reach safely, but Santiago has limited damage with runners on at an elite level. Even just skimming the surface it's easy to see this is where Santiago gains a considerable amount of value over Nolasco.

 

Career with men on base

Santiago: .216/.322/.336 (.658 OPS)

Nolasco: .294/.345/.448 (.793)

 

Career with RISP

Santiago: .184/.300/.271 (.571)

Nolasco: .287/.347/.437 (.784)

 

Career with 2 outs and RISP

Santiago: .173/.310/.248 (.558)

Nolasco: .264/.355/.397 (.752)

 

To put some perspective on just how excellent these numbers are for Santiago, Johan Santana was only slightly better over his career with men on base (.647 OPS) but not nearly as good with RISP (.623) or with RISP and two outs (.606).

 

Santiago's greatest weakness is walks, and looking at his excellent July it's a wonder how he managed to put up such great results with how many free passes he issued. But, while he did walk 21 batters, in the following at-bat opponents went just 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts and two walks (for those of you tallying things up at home, he was pulled for a reliever after one of those walks). That is a small sample, but it shows a slice of how effective Santiago can be at stepping up, wiggling out of jams and neutralizing the walks.

 

There are people who don't believe in the concept of clutch, or even pitchers adjusting their approach based on game situation (pitching to the score for example). But after over 650 career innings, it seems like a stretch to look at Santiago's excellent track record in adverse situations and just say he's just been lucky. He clearly is unfazed by the pressure of pitching with men on base.

 

Hector Santiago plays with fire but rarely gets burned. If he can continue to demonstrate this skill, he should also continue to outperform Ricky Nolasco with ease.

 

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[The Wise One]

Santiago's LOB% is better than Nolasco's but not dominatingly  better than league average. The league average was brought down by Nolaco. His LOB needs to be better  than league average because he gives up league average hits and walks.

[Tom Froemming]

Santiago hasn't been quite as impressive in the LOB% this year. His 75.9 LOB% is 39th among the 98 pitchers with at least 100 innings. Nolasco is 95th at 64.5%.

 

But if you look back to when he became a starter (2013), there have been 81 pitchers who've thrown 500 innings and he ranks 14th with a 76.8 LOB%. Also over that stretch ...

He has the highest fly ball rate at 49.0%
Second lowest line drive rate at 17.5%
Sixth highest infield fly ball rate at 12.6%
Sixth lowest BABIP at .271

He is elite in the areas he excels in. On the ugly side, only Liriano and Ubaldo have a worse BB/9 than Santiago's 3.94 over that span. But I think that may be part of his strategy. He keeps guys off balance and doesn't challenge hitters when the count's in their favor.

 

Obviously, that's a dangerous game to play, and I'm sure will be infuriating to watch from time to time, but it has been working for him.

[hybridbear]

Could it be that he is more comfortable pitching from the stretch than the windup & that the change in delivery impacts him? What does his delivery look like?

[tobi0040]

First let me say this was a really good article Tom. Good stuff.

 

The k rate could help explain the LOB % gap between him and Nolasco. He is about a full k higher per 9. But there has to be some secret sauce to it, maybe it is he excels out of the windup like hybrid mentioned, maybe he dials up his velo a bit in those situations. Justin Verlander is a guy that seems to pick up 3-4 mph when he needs to.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Could it be that he is more comfortable pitching from the stretch than the windup & that the change in delivery impacts him? What does his delivery look like?

 

There's probably something to this. Not sure if it's comfort level. Perhaps the different motions generate enough of a different movement on the pitch making them less hitable?  I don't know.

[Tom Froemming]

Thanks tobi, secret sauce is a good way to put it. What I wonder is if the Twins should just kinda let him do his thing and hope for continued success or if they should try to uncover what that secret sauce is and see if they can help him take the next step.

 

Personally, I hope they do as little tinkering as possible. My worry is that they'll try to get him to lower that walk rate/pitch count in the hopes that he can go deeper into games. I fear if he stays in the zone more and tries to attack hitters he'd just get clobbered.

[tobi0040]

Thanks tobi, secret sauce is a good way to put it. What I wonder is if the Twins should just kinda let him do his thing and hope for continued success or if they should try to uncover what that secret sauce is and see if they can help him take the next step.

 

Personally, I hope they do as little tinkering as possible. My worry is that they'll try to get him to lower that walk rate/pitch count in the hopes that he can go deeper into games. I fear if he stays in the zone more and tries to attack hitters he'd just get clobbered.

Our track record improving guys via tinkering is not good. So I tend to agree with you here. I still think we view him as a non-tender anyway

[jorgenswest]

Angel Stadium was the perfect park for an extreme fly ball lefty like Santiago. Target Field may not be very friendly. Angel Stadium is one of the more difficult places for right handed batters to hit home runs. Saniago still gave up more home runs than any other pitcher last year. Right handed batters see an increase in home runs in Target Field. This combination could prove difficult for Santiago and his future value.

[DJL44]

A lefty who is good out of the stretch would make an excellent reliever even if he isn't great in the rotation.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Angel Stadium was the perfect park for an extreme fly ball lefty like Santiago. Target Field may not be very friendly. Angel Stadium is one of the more difficult places for right handed batters to hit home runs. Saniago still gave up more home runs than any other pitcher last year. Right handed batters see an increase in home runs in Target Field. This combination could prove difficult for Santiago and his future value.

I agree with everything you're saying, but the numbers shocked me.

 

Over the past three seasons with the Angels he's given up more homers at home (34) than on the road (30) with a huge split this year (13 home vs. 7 road).

 

And it's not like he has pitched more at home, it's 43 home appearances vs. 42 on the road.

[Dantes929]

While I liked Milone and didn't really care for Nolasco replacing them both with Berrios and Santiago has to be viewed as a plus.     Of course the way the Twins have been hitting the pitchers just have to keep the other team in single digits.

[tobi0040]

There's probably something to this. Not sure if it's comfort level. Perhaps the different motions generate enough of a different movement on the pitch making them less hitable?  I don't know.

If his mechanics improve or he is more comfortable out of the stretch, then maybe we should just have him pitch out of the stretch all of the time.

[jorgenswest]

I agree with everything you're saying, but the numbers shocked me.

 

Over the past three seasons with the Angels he's given up more homers at home (34) than on the road (30) with a huge split this year (13 home vs. 7 road).

 

And it's not like he has pitched more at home, it's 43 home appearances vs. 42 on the road.

Home runs stabilize at around 1250 plate appearances. Splits, each in a smaller sample, might not be very informative. I would think that Santiago would have given up a greater number of home runs at home had the park over the last three years been Target Field.

 

I did look at the partial home run data for 2016 and see that Angel Stadium was giving up home runs at a much greater rate than the three year stretch from 2013-2015 when they were among the most difficult places to hit home runs in the AL. I don't think they made stadium changes And it is a small sample of the partial season. In any case, Santiago's difficulty with home runs at home this year coincides with his increase in ERA.

[amjgt]

Clearly the beard is a push. They are almost identical.

[goulik]

On the year Santiago is immediately the team leader among starters in Strike outs and wins and second on the team in ERA, K/9 and innings pitched. I am immensely overjoyed at our upgrade in Starting Pitching with his acquisition

[Tom Froemming]

 

Could it be that he is more comfortable pitching from the stretch than the windup & that the change in delivery impacts him? What does his delivery look like?

It's possible, but I don't believe that to be the case. I think it has more to do with his approach. I think with bases empty he tries to kinda save his arm and let hitters get themselves out and with men on he really bears down. Whether that means he adds some velo, puts some more snap on his breaking balls or somehow alters his pitch selection I'm not sure.

 

For his career, he's given up a homer 4.12% of the time with the bases empty (68 HR over 1,654 PAs) but only 1.99% of the time with runners on (23 HR over 1,161 PAs).

[alarp33]

Saving his arm to let people on base before bearing down, would be a heck of an approach.  Best of luck to him with that. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did Carlos Santana not read this article?

[Tom Froemming]

 

Did Carlos Santana not read this article?

LOL 

[clutterheart]

If i were a betting man id wage Twins fans will be hoping Santiago is non tendered at the end of the year.

[mikelink45]

Let's hope for better than he seems.  I am not impressed nor am I confident our pitching coach can get the most out of any of our arms.  We the staff results we have shouldn't there be some discussion about getting a new person to work with the pitchers?

[Mike Sixel]

 

If i were a betting man id wage Twins fans will be hoping Santiago is non tendered at the end of the year.

 

That's been my guess all along......

[jorgenswest]

That 9 million buys a pitcher the level of Pelfrey in free agency. It is hard to imagine they can spend it on someone who will have more trade value than Santiago at the deadline next year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That 9 million buys a pitcher the level of Pelfrey in free agency. It is hard to imagine they can spend it on someone who will have more trade value than Santiago at the deadline next year.

 

And? Who says they will use it on a pitcher? Who says they will use it at all? 

[alarp33]

 

That 9 million buys a pitcher the level of Pelfrey in free agency. It is hard to imagine they can spend it on someone who will have more trade value than Santiago at the deadline next year.

 

It doesn't have to be spent on a starting pitcher.  Catcher, Bullpen, and potentially LF are all needs. 

[ashbury]

That 9 million buys a pitcher the level of Pelfrey in free agency. It is hard to imagine they can spend it on someone who will have more trade value than Santiago at the deadline next year.

A couple of other contracts also come off the books. We don't know who the next general manager will be. This 9M is additional flexibility, and need not be used by itself on a similar player, but can for example be combined. It also could make a trade for a more expensive player palatable.

[Rosterman]

In all likelihood the Twins will have some minor money to spend next year, depending on arbitration with Plouffe and Santiago. Suzuki will be gone, There's not a lot of prospects out there. Santiago, like Santana/Hughes/Nolasco/Milone can be dreamed of as a piece that could still have value at trading time next year, at least for a prospect of sorts or in another Nolasco-like trade. At worst, he can be Tommy Milone, but more expensive.

 

It's too bad we do have Perkins and Hughes eating up a lot of salary without looking to open the season with the Twins, as well as the Mauer problem blocking certain players from having a place to play (if only Joe could play third base.....). 

 

I'm still waiting to see how the 40-man roster ultimately plays out. As well as any August moves!

[Deduno Abides]

If i were a betting man id wage Twins fans will be hoping Santiago is non tendered at the end of the year.

Or traded through waivers next week.

[jorgenswest]

And? Who says they will use it on a pitcher? Who says they will use it at all?

 

Whether they use it or not it does give an exemplar of what 9 million dollars buys.

 

To win this trade the Twins need to get more value out of the 9 million and Busenitz than the Angels get from Meyer and Nolasco's 2017.