Article: The Next Wave

[Jeremy Nygaard]

These last three games against the Indians have really been something. It might make you wonder how things would be different had the offense clicked earlier this year. It might also make you look at the contributions of Max Kepler and not feel so bad about Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano. It might also make you think about the future.Let’s look back a little bit first. Though fans suffered through all the 90-loss seasons, 2014 was when the lights started to flicker brighter and we were introduced to the first wave of prospects. Oswaldo Arcia used the season to build on a successful 2013 campaign. Danny Santana debuted and put up a ridiculous .824 OPS while stealing 20 bases. Kennys Vargas teased us with his power in a 53-game cameo. All were 23 years old.

 

Kyle Gibson spent his first full season in the major leagues and was a 13-game winner. Trevor May started nine games - and while he struggled - he showed fans an ability to strike hitters out with a K/9 of 8.7 in 45.2 innings.

 

Last season, 2015, was more of the same. We witnessed the duo of Miguel Sano, 22, and Eddie Rosario, 23, push the team to the brink of the playoffs. Sano with his power (18 home runs and an OPS of .916) and Rosario with his speed and defense (a league-leading 15 triples and 16 outfield assists).

 

Tyler Duffey joined the rotation, got roughed up in his debut, but was 5-0 down the stretch and the club’s best pitcher.

 

Also seeing time in 2015 were members of the next wave: Byron Buxton who debuting at 21, battled injuries and remained a prospect by one at-bat, Jorge Polanco, who debuted at 20, and always hits, and Max Kepler, last year’s Southern League Player of the Year, who joined the team in late-September.

 

Jose Berrios, who turned 22 earlier this summer, has rejoined the team (hopefully) permanently and it’s not hard to imagine that many of the pieces of the next competitive team are in place.

 

But who’s next?

 

THE POWER BATS

 

With Kepler firmly entrenched in right field and Buxton the future of centerfield, it would be easy to stick Rosario in left field and call it a day.

 

Not so fast.

 

Daniel Palka, 24, has 26 home runs this year between Chattanooga and Rochester. His left-handed power will play at any stadium and though he isn’t on the 40-man roster, could be a September call-up. He’s not alone. Adam Brett Walker, also 24, has 21 home runs for Rochester this year. Walker’s right-handed power will play anywhere. The catch, obviously, is that both players have a massive amount of swing-and-miss in their game. But that doesn’t mean that either (or both) should be cast aside.

 

Byungho Park, who had 12 home runs for the Twins before being demoted in late June, also offers a ton of power from the right-handed batter’s box, but he is limited to first base or DH in the lineup (and he’s 29 and not a prospect).

 

THE NEXT PIRANHAS

 

There will never be another set like the originals, but there’s some potential with this next wave: Zach Granite, 23, and Engelb Vielma, 22, are both hitting just shy of .300 in Chattanooga and both offer premium defense and a lot of speed. Granite has 34 walks and 34 strikeouts on the season along with 38 stolen bases. Coming into the year with a 65% success rate, Granite has improved and has been successful in 81% of his attempts this year. Vielma has battled hamstring injuries this season and only has six swipes, but he had 35 last year and we’ll see his numbers trend north as the season progresses and his legs get all the way back to 100%.

 

THE NEXT CATCHER

 

After trading for John Ryan Murphy, the future appeared set. Until Murphy forgot how to hit (worse than you can imagine with the Twins before becoming a .210/.266/.283 hitter for Rochester).

 

So who’s next? Mitch Garver, a 25-year-old at Chattanooga, has improved his defense and made greater strides with his bat. Garver has an OPS over .800 supported with 11 home runs. He 20% strikeout-percentage is higher than normal, but his walk-rate remains over 11%. He’s also thrown out more than 50% of would-be base-stealers on the season.

 

THE TURNING OF THE ROTATION

 

The minor-leagues contain a number of pitchers who could find time in the rotation including Jason Wheeler, a 25-year-old, who is on his way to being named the organization’s pitcher of the year with a 10-3 record between Chattanooga and Rochester and Aaron Slegers, 23, and David Hurlbut, 26, who are potential back-end arms, as well currently pitching in Chattanooga.

 

Recently-acquired Adalberto Mejia, 23, will make his organizational debut for Rochester tomorrow. He’s not far off and has a chance to make the Opening Day rotation next year.

 

Sometime later in 2017, we could be introduced to the cream of the pitching prospect crop: Stephen Gonsalves, 21, has continued to dominate every level, including AA, with a K/9 in excess of 10.0 (though he’s still walking too many), Tyler Jay, 22, started to come into his own with Fort Myers before his promotion, move to the bullpen and subsequent shut-down in Chattanooga, and Kohl Stewart, 21, who’s been an enigma but still has lots of potential. Felix Jorge, also 22, has struggled a bit since his promotion to Chattanooga, but he’s been compared to current Twin Ervin Santana.

 

THE POWER ARMS

 

We saw J.T. Chargois earlier this summer (and it wasn’t pretty), but between him and newly-acquired Pat Light, the Target Field radar gun will hit triple-digits in the top of an inning sometime yet this season. (Light did it twice for Rochester on Wednesday night, according to reports.)

 

2010 first-round pick Alex Wimmers, 27, doesn’t throw that hard, and neither does Trevor Hildenberger, 25, but both could make their major-league debut this year. Hildenberger was recently placed on the DL with elbow tendinitis, but no one in baseball has numbers as good as he does.

 

Jake Reed, 23, has bounced back with a really good 2016 after a disappointing 2015 (EDIT: According to an AL scout, Reed also hit 100 mph on the radar gun last night) and Zack Jones, 25, continues to strike batters out since his return from the Brewers (after they decided not to keep him as a Rule 5 draft pick).

 

Nick Burdi is another arm who throws it really hard… when healthy, which he currently isn’t.

 

THE RECAP

 

The Twins have been a lot of fun to watch these last few days. And they have plenty of young players who are making it so fun. But they have more young players knocking on the door and that makes it exciting. We’re going to see some guys get a(nother) chance before many of these prospects get their turns, but this next wave is going to be fun to watch.

 

Who excites you?

 

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[troyhobbs]

I don't follow prospects too closely but its good to see the present wave having some fun. Sorta looks like the young guys are taking over the dugout and the vibe of the team is a lot less sterile. Suppose that comes with winning too. Interesting too that Buxton and Sano are getting outshined.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Don't forget Nick Gordon

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Don't forget Nick Gordon

 

Gordon will spend all of 2017 in AA. All of the guys mentioned above have a chance to debut in 2017.

 

But yes, Gordon is definitely a prospect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, lots of potential impact sitting in the high minors. This team will turn around faster than some people suspect, especially if some of the guys currently up there can take some big steps. It still really hinges on Sano and Buxton figuring things out I suppose. Not that Sano hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the star we hoped for. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Granite really intrigues me, mostly because he's never gotten the attention of the top prospects in the organization. His numbers have been great this year. I know the SB isn't what it used to be, but with Granite, it's a weapon for sure.

 

While he may not have the potential/ceiling of someone like Buxton, if both continue trending like they have into next season, I think Granite might getr a chance at a late season call up and have the opportunity to stick.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I really think there's something special with Gonsalves. He should be going through some "growing pains" in AA but with a 2.79 ERA and a K rate of 10 k per 9 that tells me he transitioned quite well and maybe is more than what scouts originally thought. Also Gonsalves does not give up very many home runs or hits for that matter. I look forward to see him up sometime in 2017, and by then I'd assume he will have worked more on his control as well.

[wavedog]

 

Granite really intrigues me, mostly because he's never gotten the attention of the top prospects in the organization. His numbers have been great this year. I know the SB isn't what it used to be, but with Granite, it's a weapon for sure.

 

While he may not have the potential/ceiling of someone like Buxton, if both continue trending like they have into next season, I think Granite might getr a chance at a late season call up and have the opportunity to stick.

I agree!   I have been following his performance this year and I will caveat this with I have never seen him play and I am certainly no expert  but I have a hunch that Granite's skill set will translate well to the majors and we could really use a leadoff hitter like him.

[Vanimal46]

Just looking at Granite's numbers he reminds me of Ben Revere. What's his defense like? Hopefully a little better than Revere's arm! 

[alarp33]

The next wave of hitters is not very inspiring to say the least... here's to hoping they aren't needed because Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco are doing great. 

[Platoon]

Vielma. By all accounts he can pick it. I am seriously waiting for a SS who is judged more so by his glove than his bat. Lord knows we have enough bat first players.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Just looking at Granite's numbers he reminds me of Ben Revere. What's his defense like? Hopefully a little better than Revere's arm! 

 

Your comp seemed right, though I was hoping Granite had a little better OBP than Revere. Revere's minor league OBP was .382. Granite's so far is .351. He also has a lower SLG than Revere had.

 

So yeah, Revere 2.0 might be his best-case.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Garver might be the most important of the prospects listed above. He seems to have a good balance of ability with the glove and the bat. I've never heard anyone really complain about his defense. It was always underrated because they compared him to Turner, who seems to be elite defensively. But Garver's bat blows Turner's away.

 

I would love to see Garver get the Kepler treatment. September call up. AAA to start next season. If he performs get him up quickly.

[Mike Sixel]

I am much more excited about the pitchers than the hitters in AA or AAA.....but if Buxton can't hit at all, Granite or Wade MIGHT hit enough, though I am skeptical. I don't see Walker doing much in the majors, and I think the jury is out on Vielma's ability to hit.....

 

OTOH, I think Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay and Jorge area all legit MLB prospects, and Meija will start games in MN next year. The RPs need something to change in development, but there is talent.....

 

 

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[bird]

 

Yeah, lots of potential impact sitting in the high minors. This team will turn around faster than some people suspect, especially if some of the guys currently up there can take some big steps. It still really hinges on Sano and Buxton figuring things out I suppose. Not that Sano hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the star we hoped for. 

 

Yes, first things first. It would be nice to see signs from Sano, Buxton, Duffey, Santana, and Vargas yet during 2016 that they're getting it and will be consistent contributors, and sure, maybe a couple of them stall out.

 

I think the key to the next wave is the progress of the Outlook rotation, and those guys probably need this year and at least half of next season before we can even think about them as possible MLB contributors. I'm not particularly excited about Wheeler, Slegers, Hurlbut et al.

 

The earliest arrivals of note from the next wave will clearly be relief pitchers. It's a strength for us, not just because we have J.T. Chargois, but because we have an astounding number of prospects with real promise. Jeremy didn't even mention Mason Melotakis, or any of the guys maybe a notch below him, such as Brandon Peterson or Baxendale. I'm excited about the potential of that 2017 bullpen.

 

As much as I'd love to see Rosario as a 4th OF, I don't want it to be at the expense of Palka or Walker. Part of my viewpoint on this has to do with my personal distaste for a lineup crammed with strikeout prone, station-to-station players. I like speed, and defense, and smart base-running, and triples. 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I think the FO (whoever that may be) this offseason should focus on thinning out the logjam in the OF and at DH between MLB / AAA.

 

In the OF, the Twins have Kepler, Grossman, Rosario, Buxton in the majors right now. In AAA, there's Palka and Walker. At DH, Sano and Vargas are in the majors with Park in Rochester.

 

I would say Sano and Kepler are untouchable (probably Buxton too). I hope the GM could package one or two of the others, maybe along with Plouffe and get a decent pitching prospect in return.

[HitInAPinch]

Teams are built differently, depending largely on their home ballpark.  The World Series Twins were built upon a ping-pong table.  

 

I believe the Twins need more OBP / OPS guys in the lineup and on the bench.  They've got Sano as the scary guy in the lineup [ he will make a comeback as the DH ], Kepler looks to be legit. Add Dozier as a surprising OBP / OPS guy.

 

I've always liked Rosario in LF and really hope someone can get Buxton straightened out, soon.

 

I'm just not convinced there's a spot for Palka or Walker right now.  As someone else recently commented,  "I like speed, and defense, and smart base-running, and triples."

 

Really like the development of skilled, defensive, infielders.  And I really like Polanco.  Polanco @3rd, Sano @DH the rest of the year.

 

The patching of the bullpen should be over.  Those veterans have servered their purpose:   filling an MLB spot so MiLB prospects and continue there development without pressure.  They're ready:  time is now.

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Just looking at Granite's numbers he reminds me of Ben Revere. What's his defense like? Hopefully a little better than Revere's arm! 

My arm is better than Revere's!  OK, that's a lie....

But I can hit better that Revere!   T-ball.  T-ball......

 

[Rosterman]

17 guys the Twins should be protecting and advancing shortly.

 

The depth is nice. It makes you wonder about the real need for Park, and if Buxton could be another centerfield tradechip.

 

I like Granite. I like Palka. I wish we didn't have the roadblock of Mauer, and have no idea what to do with Park.

 

Players will start getting passed by. Walker may be bypassed soon. We can forget about names like Michael and Harrison, it seems. Baxendale and Darnell and Dean will be passed by any number of Lookouts.

 

Will be most interested in seeing how many minor league free agents the Twins go after this coming season. Seems the Lookout could advance in total to Rochester, not leaving many spots. 

 

Also means the Twins CAN cycle out people like Dozier and, though we may call foul, not resign their free agents.

 

Oh, and besides Gordon, Cederoth should be faster tracked next season.

 

 

And remember we have a couple of guys jsut drafted...Ben the catcher and Alex the outfielder, both of whom could be fast-tracked.

 

With the shutdowns of Jay and Hildenberger, you can never have enough pitching, or so it seems.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Rosterman

[Vanimal46]

 

Your comp seemed right, though I was hoping Granite had a little better OBP than Revere. Revere's minor league OBP was .382. Granite's so far is .351. He also has a lower SLG than Revere had.

 

So yeah, Revere 2.0 might be his best-case.

Revere 2.0 wouldn't be so bad considering the Twins are lacking a true leadoff hitter. 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Vanimal46

[troyhobbs]

 

TO follow up on that, how about Polanco as the lead off hitter now with Dozier moving back into the 4 spot and Sano 5?  Seems like a better use of each one's particular talents in the lineup.  

I've been thinking that too. Polanco takes good at bats, sees a lot of pitches, seemingly a good base runner, etc.  Makes more sense to have Dozier in the middle of the lineup.

[birddog]

The future always comes down to the present, and with the Twins above .500 in our last 60 games baseball is fun now and should be even brighter in the coming years. Nice to read about our future players though I look at their box scores every day. We have been talking future for way too long so I hope that the new GM will package some of our young players this off season for established talent.

 

The thought of trading Buxton scares me as I am sure he will translate his minor league numbers to the majors soon. Way too much talent and way too young for people to write off. Would love to see AB Walker and Palka here in September and crush enough balls that other GMs fall in love with them enough to give us what we need in a trade. 

[kellyvance]

Polanco

Mauer

Kepler

Sano

Dozier

Rosario

Eddie

Zuke

Bux

[FargoFanMan]

I don't know how anyone could write off buxton. The guy may not be hitting yet but he's an elite defensive talent. Unless he continues to hit .200 you don't let this guy go. The only thing that worries me about buxton is the injuries. Defensively though he's probably top 3 and that makes up for offense. He'll come around. Might not challenge for a batting title but who cares. As a former pitcher you adore a guy like this. Makes your job easier.

[SarasotaBill]

The following will be unpopular but Twins should send Buxton down to AAA to play everyday, work on bunting and everything else. At the same time, tell him he's going to play every day in September when he comes back. Maybe that will give him the freedom to relax, enjoy baseball, and build up his confidence. 

 

Only bring up those who are no-brainers to be added to the 40 man this year. 

[Platoon]

I would hope that no FO would even remotely consider trading Buxton. He is what? 23? He is already one of the top defensive OF in baseball. As for sending him down to AAA, I wouldn't. He has hit at that level already, there are very few SP on the Twins staff who do not need an elite CF.

[Jordan1212]

I would like to see us shop Buxton I believe we could get what we truly need and that's starting pitching and I'm not talking number 6 starters like what we have a ton of in our minors let alone our major league team. Some team would dump the farm for Buxton. I like Tyler Jay he has potential they need to stop baby our pitchers he threw 78 innings whoo big deal let him pitch. We need catching mitch Garver is not the answer so stop pretending. Finally we all should pray that Joe Mauer decides to hang it up. Great guy great teammate but he is being selfish making that money when he can't even play half of what he was and that year before his contract sure funny he hit 30 hr's but never again hmmm interesting. But we have some promise in some up and comers but we need to be patient because they fed us some hype that we were gonna be a playoff team but we all know where that led...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Should Melotakis count as a "power arm"?

 

Zack Jones, 25, continues to strike batters out since his return from the Brewers (after they decided not to keep him as a Rule 5 draft pick).

I'm not predicting future greatness for Jones, but it feels like maybe the Brewers made a mistake on this one?  Looks like they had to the perfect opportunity to keep Jones with minimal effort, first half of the season on the DL, second half active on a team well out of playoff contention.

 

Will be interesting to see if we protect him this winter, or I guess the Brewers or someone else might get another Rule 5 crack at him.

[DocBauer]

While it's off the topic somewhat, I also love Polanco hitting up top and Dozier sliding down to an RBI slot.

 

I disagree with an earlier statement, can't remember now who said it, that this next wave is not nearly the caliber or excitement of the most recent wave of prospects. It's just different. We heard so much about Buxton, Sano, Kepler and Rosario and all their potential and big numbers previously. But this next round/wave is filled with rotation and bullpen arms.

 

I have been a Gonsalves fan since day one and he's starting to look like everything we could have hoped for.

 

Also excited for Palka. I know he strikes out more than you'd like, but he does hit, hit for power, and he still takes a fair share of walks as well.

 

The third guy I'm excited about is Garver. He and Turner were the top two for the Johnny Bench top college catcher award coming out of college. He guns down runners. While still maybe a work in progress, I've heard nothing but positives about his ability and work behind the plate. And he flat out looks like a better than average offensive catcher. My only concern is how much time he's had to share at catcher with Turner vs playing almost daily there.

[DJSim22]

 

I don't know how anyone could write off buxton. The guy may not be hitting yet but he's an elite defensive talent. Unless he continues to hit .200 you don't let this guy go. The only thing that worries me about buxton is the injuries. Defensively though he's probably top 3 and that makes up for offense. He'll come around. Might not challenge for a batting title but who cares. As a former pitcher you adore a guy like this. Makes your job easier.

 

I completely agree.  It's scary to think fans actually want to trade him for a box of baseballs...