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Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago


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Looking more into this xFIP-ERA P Alan Busenitz-

since 2014 Angels starters have outperformed xFIP by .29 runs/game.

 

Weaver, Santiago, Tropeano, and Heaney have outperformed the most. Interestingly they are all fly ball guys.

Richards has also outperformed it being an extreme ground ball guy. Shoemaker being a 50/50 guy, has matched his ERA to his xFIP.

 

Since 2014 Twins starters have underperformed xFIP by .54 runs/game.

May (+1.52, 40.6% FB),

Nolasco (+1.21, 36.4% FB)

Duffey (+1.08, 28.6% FB)

Hughes (+.34, 40.4% FB)

Santana (-.56 runs/9. 36.7% FB)

 

Since 2014 the Angels have had the 3rd best defense, the Twins the 3rd worst. Roughly 100-150 runs separated them.

Actually between 2006-2013 the Marlins defense was pretty bad too, 4th worst.

 

Safe to say that a significant portion of Ricky's xFIP-ERA underperformance is defense-related IMO.

The issue I have with this is Ricky has always had pretty big split between ERA and FIP, xFIP and that is across 1,600 IP and four franchises.

 

It has went from about 70 basis points to a full run here. I think a portion of that is defense and the other the fact that he is getting hit really hard. But if you cut 30 basis points off his 5.50 ERA you still have a really, really terrible pitcher.

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Not sure where you get 150 in that range.  I see a 107 run difference since the start of 2014 by both DRS and UZR:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

Nolasco has pitched 8.4% of the Twins innings since 2014.  His proportional share of the DRS/UZR deficit would be about 9 runs.  That would drop his Twins ERA from 5.44 to 5.19.  His Twins FIP is 4.20.

 

I don't think your conclusion is "safe" at all.

The difference in DEF scores in that frame is 139.5.

 

I don't know what a statistically significant variation would be for the number of IP. Maybe a quarter run isn't enough to come to any conclusions.

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Repeating the exercise for his Marlins career (I'll ignore 2013 as it was split between Miami and LA)....

 

2006-2012 Marlins: -139 UZR, -313 (!) DRS

 

2006-2012 Nolasco pitched 11% of the Marlins innings

 

His "share" of the larger DRS under-performance would have been 35 runs, dropping his ERA from 4.49 to 4.21.  By UZR, it's only 15 runs, dropping his ERA from 4.49 to 4.37.  His FIP in those years was 3.83.

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The issue I have with this is Ricky has always had pretty big split between ERA and FIP, xFIP and that is across 1,600 IP and four franchises.

It has went from about 70 basis points to a full run here. I think a portion of that is defense and the other the fact that he is getting hit really hard. But if you cut 30 basis points off his 5.50 ERA you still have a really, really terrible pitcher.

 

Per the fangraphs xFIP explanation page: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/xfip/

Most often a pitcher's ability to outperform xFIP exists because they can limit HR.  Particularly HR/FB%.  Additionally, some pitchers tend to give up solo blasts while cruising with a 3-5 run lead (common for aces) which obviously hurt less than 3 run blasts.  Those pitchers would be expected to have low walks.  To me, this explained a lot of Trevor May's under-performance last year.  He limited walks and HR to a degree he never had before, but still gave up big innings and 3 run HR at a larger than expected rate for his walk and HR totals.  Nolasco seems to fall into the big inning trap as well.  Anecdotaly, he is pitching somewhat deep into games but is giving up a lot of runs.  He may be sacrificing hits for walks which will look darn nice in FIP or xFIP terms, but as the few remaining BA fans out there will tell you, a single produces a much better outcome than a walk.  

Without reviewing the stats, my hypothesis is that Santiago is really good at limiting HR or giving up solo HR, a skill that Fangraphs acknowledge exists that throws off xFIP.  It also appears Santiago walks a lot of guys.  But the walks must hurt him at a less than expected rate which could mean he doesn't give in to guys, has a knack of following up with a K, or has above average ability to convert 1 base walks into double plays.  Now I need a team of interns to check the stats.

 

Edited by Jham
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That is the bigger one. If he is throwing up a mid 5.00 ERA, another team isn't going to give him the leash that he had here.

We kept throwing him out there because of his salary. The Angels paid Hamilton $63m to play somewhere else. I don't think that $12m is going to buy him reps there.

 

We also kept throwing him out there because lots of other guys sucked. It's not like Milone/Hughes/Gibson ran away with jobs or May made a compelling case for the rotation. They were able to move him so I guess it worked out? Ugh.

 

My bigger question is what would Ricky Nolasco have to do next year for you to want that extra year to kick in? Would a 3.00 ERA do it? Huge spike in K rate? Does it take legitimate Cy Young votes to make you forget his past?

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Yeah. Interesting. Some analysis below.

The nice part is the flexibility. A new GM can analyze Santiago and if he fits in 2017. If not, he is non tendered or traded and we found someone to pay Nolasco about $8m next year

The really odd thing about this is I think a majority of us would be happy in reverse. Had the Twins ate some salary and moved a back of the rotation starter in order to take a flier on a potential front of the rotation guy we may be intrigued. I think it speaks to us watching Ricky for 50 plus starts and drip by drip over two years lose hope in Meyer. Angels fans haven't endured either of those. https://www.google.com/amp/www.halosheaven.com/platform/amp/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade?client=safari

Agree. Also, interesting that Meyer will go to spring training in 2017 with a chance to win a starting job. That will be something to watch. He was not given that chance here, for whatever reason.
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The difference in DEF scores in that frame is 139.5.

Interesting.  Now I'm curious what DEF is, I assumed it was basically just UZR plus a positional adjustment (which should be roughly the same for all the teams in the AL), but now I'm not so sure.  UZR is already the sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR so I'm not sure why the Angels UZR gets a 10 run boost to DEF, while the Twins UZR gets a 23 run demerit to DEF.

 

In any case, defense as measured by the metrics doesn't seem to explain much of Nolasco's ERA-FIP discrepancy.

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Agree. Also, interesting that Meyer will go to spring training in 2017 with a chance to win a starting job. That will be something to watch. He was not given that chance here, for whatever reason.

"whatever reason" was either inability to locate a strike zone or insufficient health care coverage.

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We also kept throwing him out there because lots of other guys sucked. It's not like Milone/Hughes/Gibson ran away with jobs or May made a compelling case for the rotation. They were able to move him so I guess it worked out? Ugh.

 

My bigger question is what would Ricky Nolasco have to do next year for you to want that extra year to kick in? Would a 3.00 ERA do it? Huge spike in K rate? Does it take legitimate Cy Young votes to make you forget his past?

Here is a list of starters who had a lower ERA than Ricky.

 

2014 – Hughes, Gibson, Correia, Pino, Deduno, Swarzak, and Kris Johnson. Ricky was third in IP.

 

2015 – Gibson, Pelfrey, Santana, Hughes, Milone, Duffey, and May.

 

In 2015 we also moved May to the pen and had Graham in the long role all year, with a better ERA (he also made a start). We probably had countless guys on the waiver wire that would have pitched better too. But the fact that we pulled about anyone from AAA and they also pitched better than Ricky shows me he was starting because of the money. To your point, maybe it would not have lasted as long if Berrios for example didn't falter out of the gates. But they also didn't need to leave May in the pen or send Berrios down for 16 additional starts.

 

In hindsight, they were probably hoping and praying Ricky would string a few starts together and get out of a good chunk of his salary for next year. It appears that worked, although I am not sure long term it was worth it with May/Berrios not starting up here.

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Here's the Angel's forum's reaction:
http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade

Interesting takeaways:
1) Halos fans think they won, or at least tied in this trade.
2) Angels fans are more frustrated than Twins fans somehow.
3) They hate Santiago, his walks, and his pitch count.
4) They love Meyer's upside, 1 poster even suggesting that Antony got fleeced and taken advantage of.
5) The Angels have one of the worst ranked farm systems in the game, Busentiz was unranked, and despite their lack of prospect talent, Meyer ranks only 12 in their system.  

They make a good point about our salary dump.  If we arbitrate with Santiago and pay him $8-$10 mil next year, along with $4mil of Nolasco, we didn't really shed any salary at all.  They speculate that our intention is to non-tender Santiago after the season.  Basically both sides got rid of frustrating players and are snickering waiting for the other to realize their mistake.  Sort of funny actually.  From a homer standpoint, I think they don't know how well they had it with Hector.

Edited by Jham
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Interesting.  Now I'm curious what DEF is, I assumed it was basically just UZR plus a positional adjustment (which should be roughly the same for all the teams in the AL), but now I'm not so sure.  UZR is already the sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR so I'm not sure why the Angels UZR gets a 10 run boost to DEF, while the Twins UZR gets a 23 run demerit to DEF.

 

In any case, defense as measured by the metrics doesn't seem to explain much of Nolasco's ERA-FIP discrepancy.

Yeah, it's mostly about positional adjustments.  It's why even the best 1Bs have negative DEFs (but 19 shortstop has positive DEFs).  Only one 1B has a positive DEF this year, for example.

Edited by jimmer
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Here's the Angel's forum's reaction:http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade

Interesting takeaways:

1) Halos fans think they won, or at least tied in this trade.

2) Angels fans are more frustrated than Twins fans somehow.

3) They hate Santiago, his walks, and his pitch count.

4) They love Meyer's upside, 1 poster even suggesting that Antony got fleeced and taken advantage of.

5) The Angels have one of the worst ranked farm systems in the game, Busentiz was unranked, and despite their lack of prospect talent, Meyer ranks only 12 in their system.  

They make a good point about our salary dump.  If we arbitrate with Santiago and pay him $8-$10 mil next year, along with $4mil of Nolasco, we didn't really shed any salary at all.  They speculate that our intention is to non-tender Santiago after the season.  Basically both sides got rid of frustrating players and are snickering waiting for the other to realize their mistake.  Sort of funny actually.  From a homer standpoint, I think they don't know how well they had it with Hector.

You have just described sports fans of all kinds, U.S. in particular.

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Without reviewing the stats, my hypothesis is that Santiago is really good at limiting HR or giving up solo HR, a skill that Fangraphs acknowledge exists that throws off xFIP.  It also appears Santiago walks a lot of guys.  But the walks must hurt him at a less than expected rate which could mean he doesn't give in to guys, has a knack of following up with a K, or has above average ability to convert 1 base walks into double plays.  Now I need a team of interns to check the stats.

 

He's average at allowing HR. His delta is almost entirely due to extremely low BABIP.

 

My hypothesis is that it's a mix of defense, luck, and skill, and that in front of a subpar defense he's a decent #4 starter at best, probably more of a #5.

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When all is said and done we got rid of Nolasco's contract for a modest $4 million in payroll expense.

 

We gave up on Meyer, who has been his own worst enemy this and last season when he could've should've made the turn to major league play.

 

We got a starter who will cost us about the same as Tommy Milone. If we can get a waiver claim on Milone, then it is a wash and we earn that salary back. Just think, offering Santiago arbitration will be similar to doing the same with Tommy.

 

e got a hard-throwing AA prospect.

 

Hey, we got rid of Nolasco!!!!!!!

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Here's the Angel's forum's reaction:

http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade

 

Interesting takeaways:

1) Halos fans think they won, or at least tied in this trade.

2) Angels fans are more frustrated than Twins fans somehow.

3) They hate Santiago, his walks, and his pitch count.

4) They love Meyer's upside, 1 poster even suggesting that Antony got fleeced and taken advantage of.

5) The Angels have one of the worst ranked farm systems in the game, Busentiz was unranked, and despite their lack of prospect talent, Meyer ranks only 12 in their system.

 

They make a good point about our salary dump. If we arbitrate with Santiago and pay him $8-$10 mil next year, along with $4mil of Nolasco, we didn't really shed any salary at all. They speculate that our intention is to non-tender Santiago after the season. Basically both sides got rid of frustrating players and are snickering waiting for the other to realize their mistake. Sort of funny actually. From a homer standpoint, I think they don't know how well they had it with Hector.

They are frustrated with Santiago's walks and pitch count. Ricky giving up 5.5 runs per 9 might frustrate them a little more.

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Interesting.  Now I'm curious what DEF is, I assumed it was basically just UZR plus a positional adjustment (which should be roughly the same for all the teams in the AL), but now I'm not so sure.  UZR is already the sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR so I'm not sure why the Angels UZR gets a 10 run boost to DEF, while the Twins UZR gets a 23 run demerit to DEF.

Yeah, one would think the difference should be the same between the Twins and Angels. I can think of a few things that might make a difference on the margins (# of away interleague games, for example) but nothing that would explain a 30 run gap. Weird.

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Let's revisit this in 2-3 years...

I think most would recognize Meyer has the physical capability to be a front end starter.  However, (and I don't know this, just assuming) he seems to be mentally fragile.  When things go wrong his whole demeanor would just change.  Maybe that is due to the way the Twins treated him and caused him to think perfection or your pulled, or maybe his psyche was never that strong.  Either way, I hope he does well in Anaheim, but I think this was a trade that recognizes sunk costs.

 

The new GM can then make the decision to non-tender Santiago or keep him this off-season.  Non-tendering is what I would do, and then use those funds to go out and get better players.

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He's average at allowing HR. His delta is almost entirely due to extremely low BABIP.

 

My hypothesis is that it's a mix of defense, luck, and skill, and that in front of a subpar defense he's a decent #4 starter at best, probably more of a #5.

Interesting.  It appears his BABIP is fueled by his rather extreme FB tendencies: 47% this year compared to 34% league average.  He's also been above average at getting infield fly balls (5% better this year).  He's right at average for HR/FB, meaning the difference probably isn't his ability to stay in the ballpark in general.  In fact, due to his FB tendencies, we'd expect greater than average HR allowed, a bad combination when combined with high BB's.  You would think the walks and HR's would more than compensate for the fact that fly balls turn into outs at the highest rate (Low BABIP).  Something other than pop ups and K's are keeping those walks from scoring apparently.  

New hypothesis: Santiago gives up a disproportionate amount of solo home runs, attacking hitters with no one on base.  Santiago then picks when a runner gets on, looking for the pop up or strike out.  He's good at getting both.  His high pitch counts and short outings indicate picking.  Basically, he'd rather walk in a run than give up a grand slam.  Which is fine as long as he doesn't walk in a run then give up a grand slam.  So you would look at total baserunners/9ip and multiply by HR/9ip, and that would be the expected amount of runs plated HR's.  Then compare with the actual number of runs plated by the HR to remove even more luck out of the equation (premise whether a ball is caught or HR is somewhat luck).  Then look for trends to see if a pitcher has a skill of avoiding more damaging HR or is more or less lucky.  I get most of this would be within expected ranges for normal calculation of FIP, but for situations where you're looking at potential outliers, figuring out where the missing runs have gone (or in Nolasco's case, where extra runs came from) could be a useful tool .


 

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Most people Meyer's size aren't frontline starters.  Not sure why that is. Maybe they have hard time consistently getting the ball in the low part of the zone, I don't know. There's obviously one glaring exception to the rule, but most people aren't inner circle HOF type pitcher like Big Unit.

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Here's the Angel's forum's reaction:
http://www.halosheaven.com/2016/8/1/12348720/breaking-down-the-hector-santiago-trade

Interesting takeaways:
1) Halos fans think they won, or at least tied in this trade.
2) Angels fans are more frustrated than Twins fans somehow.
3) They hate Santiago, his walks, and his pitch count.
4) They love Meyer's upside, 1 poster even suggesting that Antony got fleeced and taken advantage of.
5) The Angels have one of the worst ranked farm systems in the game, Busentiz was unranked, and despite their lack of prospect talent, Meyer ranks only 12 in their system.  

They make a good point about our salary dump.  If we arbitrate with Santiago and pay him $8-$10 mil next year, along with $4mil of Nolasco, we didn't really shed any salary at all.  They speculate that our intention is to non-tender Santiago after the season.  Basically both sides got rid of frustrating players and are snickering waiting for the other to realize their mistake.  Sort of funny actually.  From a homer standpoint, I think they don't know how well they had it with Hector.

Read them now...they are reading the reports that they got fleeced.  They thought Meyer was better than what he is.  They know Nolasco isn't as good as Santiago.  They are not happy with the trade now.

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Read them now...they are reading the reports that they got fleeced.  They thought Meyer was better than what he is.  They know Nolasco isn't as good as Santiago.  They are not happy with the trade now.

That's why you don't just throw guys in to the League and let them struggle their way through UNLESS you're convinced they can make it (hopefully Buxton).  If Meyer was fully exposed as a flawed MLBer, we may still have Nolasco, and no chance to assess Santiago.  I think we traded Meyer just in time.

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I'm not sure where to post my thoughts on the deadline- I've been M.I.A. for the past few days, since my father-in-law suddenly passed away over the weekend, so I've been disconnected from the Twins and the baseball world for a bit. 

 

I liked the Nunez trade, we sold high on a player that doesn't fit into the picture long-term and got back a young, cost controlled SP option for the next few seasons.

 

However, I'm definitely of the dissenting opinion in that I'm not a fan of either of the Abad or Nunez trades. Here's why: These moves didn't clear 40-man roster space that we needed and seem to be geared toward competing next year, which seems like utter fantasy. Despite what I think were fair returns, I don't agree with the direction they take the team.

 

While Abad got a C+ prospect close to the majors, It doesn't really fill an area of need- we've got plenty of our own internal relief options for next year and beyond. Chargois and Hildenberger look like they can be real late inning weapons as early as next year. Not to mention guys like Melotakis who could also help next year. I'd like to see the internal guys be given a chance first- thus I'd have preferred if the Twins would have targeted a player lower in the minors, with more upside and not one that requires a 40-man roster spot.

 

At first glance, I was actually pretty impressed that Antony got creative and was able to move Nolasco, as I figured he'd be dumped in August for a PTBNL and salary relief. However, once I dug into the trade, I didn't like it. We essentially swapped out our starting rotation deadweight for another team's deadweight- I'm sure it's been talked about, but Santiago's peripherals are UGLY. He's an extreme flyball pitcher that walks a lot of batters, has an average K%, allowed lots of hard contact, is going from a top 10 defensive team to a bottom 5 defensive team (Angels are +13 in DRS, Twins -34; Angels +3.4 UZR/150, Twins -4.8), and going to a less pitcher-friendly stadium and division. The only things Santiago has going for him are that he limits line drives and induces infield flies at an above average rate; SIERA has been a little bit kinder to him than xFIP.

 

He might be a marginal upgrade the rest of the year and next year, but that doesn't make up for the fact that he has only two years left of team control, and takes a rotation spot away from either May or Duffey, I would like to see them both get a shot in the rotation for the entire year next year before declaring them to be relievers for the rest of their careers. Yes, I realize Santiago could be non-tendered in the offseason, but when was the last time that the Twins non-tendered the centerpiece of a deadline trade the offseason after acquisition? Are the Twins that enamored with left-handed pitching in their rotation that they are willing to block out younger, cheaper options with more control and more upside? Or are they that delusional that they truly believe that this year is just a blip, and last year's record is more indicative of their true talent level that they are willing to make a marginal upgrade for next year at the expense of the long term future of the rotation?

 

And on top of that we exchanged Meyer, for arguably a lesser prospect: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-the-prospects-traded-yesterday/ According to Chris Mitchell's new and improved KATOH projection system for minor leaguers, Meyer, despite being slightly older and not-pitching much this year, still likes him better, pegging him to be worth 1.9 WAR over his career, vs 0.4 for Busenitz. Plus, the same criticisms I had for being against acquiring Light in the Abad trade I'd give here. If they were going to include Meyer, I'd have asked for a prospect lower in the minors (and yes, farther away), but with more upside. 

 

Furthermore, the fact that they didn't pull the trigger on Suzuki or Kintzler trades, which seemed like relative no-brainers (especially with demand as high as it is for C and RP this year) to me are huge failures. Plus, not selling Santana as pitching is always in demand at the deadline, despite getting Mejia and Santiago as rotation pieces seems incredibly short-sighted and gives additional credence to the idea that the Twins see themselves as competitors next year. 

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