Article: Official Trade Deadline Day Thread

[gocgo]

Liked the Abad trade.

 

Nolasco trade is a wash...he was owed 12 million next year.  We are paying 4 million and if Santiago goes to arbitration, it is estimated he will get 8 million.  So, even from the money standpoint.  I think Santiago and Nolasco are pretty similar other than the arms they throw with.  Meyer for the a AA flamethrower isn't bad.

 

Disappointed in not moving Suzuki.

 

Overall, a C+ for Antony.

Edited August 1, 2016 by gocgo

[Vanimal46]

I'll give Antony a B today. Made 3 necessary trades for the types of returns we were expecting. Getting Nolasco off of this team is a yuge win in my book.

 

Hopefully once we're in the dog days of August Suzuki, Milone, Plouffe, and Kinzler are added to the departure list.

Edited August 1, 2016 by Vanimal46

[drivlikejehu]

Maybe it was all smoke, but there were persistent rumors that multiple teams were interested in Suzuki. He is worthless to the Twins. There was no reason to hold onto him . . . same with Kintzler.

 

It's not just about return - the Twins need to be playing young guys. Yet they are still holding over too many veterans in the pitching staff.

 

Granted, they have no one at catcher . . . if they were literally offered 0 talent for Suzuki I guess that would be fine. But there's no objective reason to believe that was the case.

[DaveW]

I give him a C+ overall, but an A compared to what Ryan likely would have done.

[big dog]

I'm mostly disappointed that yesterday Eduardo Nunez got his first stolen base with the Giants, and his helmet stayed on all the way through the slide.  What's up with that?

[big dog]

 

I give him a C+ overall, but an A compared to what Ryan likely would have done.

Oh, the old "it's a 75 out of 100 but the top score so you get an A" curve.

[Vanimal46]

 

I give him a C+ overall, but an A compared to what Ryan likely would have done.

That's fair. My B grade is probably inflated a bit because we've been used to the 1 minor deal or zero activity the last 5-6 trade deadlines. 

[wsnydes]

 

Also, not thrilled about Meyer.  I'd rather have DFAd Nolasco personally. 

This is the way I lean as well.

[tobi0040]

Santiago is better than Nolasco and he is cheaper as well.

 

I loved Meyer but after command issues. Multiple shoulder issues. We have no idea the status of him. I like the move. To be quite honest I am worried he won't pass a physical, which will put Ricky back here (after hearing he is going to LA and have it fall through, someone may need to take his shoe laces).

 

The FIP for Santiago is not very concerning to me, as he has had a fair amount of innings under his belt.

Edited August 1, 2016 by tobi0040

[LaBombo]

 

Well, if you look at it that way, why would any contending team trade for him??

Because Drew Butera something something something.

 

I'm not taking sides. I just know that whenever/however Suzuki leaves the Twins, I'm going to miss making motorcycle sounds as he rounds the bases

[nicksaviking]

Liked the Abad trade.

 

Nolasco trade is a wash...he was owed 12 million next year.  We are paying 4 million and if Santiago goes to arbitration, it is estimated he will get 8 million.  So, even from the money standpoint.  I think Santiago and Nolasco are pretty similar other than the arms they throw with.  Meyer for the a AA flamethrower isn't bad.

 

Disappointed in not moving Suzuki.

 

Overall, a C+ for Antony.

Even if the only difference is which arm they throw with, it gives them a lefty in the rotation which the Twins always seem to want. This trade then eliminates the need for Milone too.

[LaBombo]

 

I give him a C+ overall, but an A compared to what Ryan likely would have done.

There's no way to know what Ryan would have done.

 

And yet somehow I agree with this completely.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The FIP for Santiago is not very concerning to me, as he has had a fair amount of innings under his belt.

 

Not nearly enough to be confident in his ERA over his FIP and xFIP. It's certainly possible, but the walk rate and fly ball % is a worrisome combination.

[tobi0040]

This trade then eliminates the need for Milone too.

True, but only in the Twins alternate universe where you absolutely need one lefty in your rotation at all times. Because, well. You just do.

[gunnarthor]

Seems like Anthony did a good job for the new GM.  He knows he's not getting the job - per Reusse - but is still probably remaining in the org.  So the new GM can decide this winter what to do with the two biggest potential trade chips - Santana and Dozier.  And he added starting depth while clearing out Nolasco.

 

I wish he had moved Suzuiki but that's the only negative and, as others said, he could be moved later.

[nicksaviking]

Also, with a decent year Santiago has a chance to be the Twins first ever QO offer!

[tobi0040]

Not nearly enough to be confident in his ERA over his FIP and xFIP. It's certainly possible, but the walk rate and fly ball % is a worrisome combination.

Depends on your definition of confident. His ERA plus of 107 has a long way to regress to match the 61, 73, and 81 ol Ricky threw up here

[gunnarthor]

 

Not nearly enough to be confident in his ERA over his FIP and xFIP. It's certainly possible, but the walk rate and fly ball % is a worrisome combination.

He's outperformed them for over 100 starts.  When is the sample size large enough? 

[Intramural Legend]

 

He's outperformed them for over 100 starts.  When is the sample size large enough? 

 

Probably around the same amount of starts that Nolasco's are ignored too

[Jham]

How Buster Olney analyzes the Nolasco deal: "At its heart, Twins' deal with Angels is essentially Meyer for Busenitz, with Angels getting an additional year w/ Nolasco vs. Santiago."

We also pay $4 mil to Angels next year.  Busenitz is more than a throw in.

[Vanimal46]

 

How Buster Olney analyzes the Nolasco deal: "At its heart, Twins' deal with Angels is essentially Meyer for Busenitz, with Angels getting an additional year w/ Nolasco vs. Santiago."

We also pay $4 mil to Angels next year.  Busenitz is more than a throw in.

It's also getting rid of a guy who, probably deep down, chased the cash and didn't want to be in Minnesota, who's been nothing short of really really bad the last 3 years... 

[Jham]

 

True, but only in the Twins alternate universe where you absolutely need one lefty in your rotation at all times. Because, well. You just do.

Milone is relatively cheap, modestly effective, and requires almost no commitment.  He's the perfect pitcher for a rebuilding team waiting for someone to replace him.  It's not his fault we have 4 other replaceable starters being paid more and for longer.  

[Monkeypaws]

 

As much as I don't like Suzuki not traded......I think I'd give Antony a B or B+ for this deadline.......which is a really high grade for me.

Suzuki is below average defensively to be sure, but here he is again being above average offensively. He sits right now at 251 plate appearances, about 200 away from him being vested. Ain't gonna happen. He's been a solid guy for this team, despite his shortcomings. With no heir apparent, why fret?

 

You can't wish for him to be gone for something good, and be mad that he didn't fetch something good, if you don't think he's good. 

 

Other GMs probably are on the same page as you sir, which I mean as a compliment.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Milone is relatively cheap, modestly effective, and requires almost no commitment.  He's the perfect pitcher for a rebuilding team waiting for someone to replace him.  It's not his fault we have 4 other replaceable starters being paid more and for longer.  

He's no longer the token lefty though. Makes his spot all the more tenuous.

[Major League Ready]

 

Because he has been a terrible defensive catcher and the Twins have the worst ERA in baseball with him as their catcher? That leadership would be sorely missed?

Can you explain how it is inexcusable that they did not trade him when your evaluation of him is that he is "terrible"?   What exactly were they supposed to get for a terrible player?  Given your general assessment of Suzuki, why would you think he should have been easy to trade?

[Jham]

 

Probably around the same amount of starts that Nolasco's are ignored too

Except in reverse...  Maybe the Twins analytics team is using a projection other teams don't have, or maybe the Angels fell into the same trap the Twins did waiting for Nolasco to "rebound" to his FIP numbers...  My favorite part of analytics is figuring out what variables lead some players to break the mold, so to speak.  In a modern game where everyone is looking at stats, correctly assessing the outliers is the only way to stay ahead.

One question I have regarding FIP and xFIP is how much steadier they are than ERA as a stat from year to year and even throughout the year.  Like it's pretty much agreed that it's a better stat than ERA in most cases, but HOW much better?  

[drivlikejehu]

 

He's outperformed them for over 100 starts.  When is the sample size large enough? 

 

Well, every start gives you more information. He has enough experience that I'd bet the under on his FIP and xFIP - but the question is, by how much? His FIP and xFIP are awful, so he needs to blow them away to be effective.

 

So far he's done that, but so did Matt Cain for a long time. Now he's in his 4th consecutive year with an ERA being worse than his defense-independent stats. 

 

Santiago is doing it with BABIP - his home rate is normal. So I suppose the question is whether you think Hector Santiago essentially has the BABIP skill of Mariano Rivera or not. I'm guessing not. And this year even a super-low BABIP isn't enough for him to have a good ERA.

[gunnarthor]

 

Except in reverse...  Maybe the Twins analytics team is using a projection other teams don't have, or maybe the Angels fell into the same trap the Twins did waiting for Nolasco to "rebound" to his FIP numbers...  My favorite part of analytics is figuring out what variables lead some players to break the mold, so to speak.  In a modern game where everyone is looking at stats, correctly assessing the outliers is the only way to stay ahead.

One question I have regarding FIP and xFIP is how much steadier they are than ERA as a stat from year to year and even throughout the year.  Like it's pretty much agreed that it's a better stat than ERA in most cases, but HOW much better?  

I'm not sure it's all that much better - at least as a predictive stat.  There's a lot of noise in it.  Guys like Radke and Santana have career FIP and ERA very close together but have seasons where they are both over and under by over .5 and even close to a run.  I suspect Santiago has larger variables in part b/c he pitches few innings but I'm not sure.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm not sure it's all that much better - at least as a predictive stat.  There's a lot of noise in it.  

 

FIP and xFIP are much better as predictive stats, except over very large sample sizes. The entire point of them is to remove noise. In exchange they lose the ability to distinguish certain factors that ordinarily are close to the league mean.

[LaBombo]

 

Milone is relatively cheap, modestly effective, and requires almost no commitment.  He's the perfect pitcher for a rebuilding team...

And also the ideal college girlfriend, apparently.