Article: Twins Trade Deadline Tidbits

[Nick Nelson]

The August 1st non-waiver trade deadline is only five days away. Here's a rundown of the relevant rumors and rumblings regarding the Minnesota Twins and interim general manager Rob Antony.* Since dismissing Terry Ryan as GM, Twins ownership has made some remarks that I would generously refer to as "tone deaf." Antony, for his part, seems a bit more interested in saying the right things.

 

During a Q&A with MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger this week (well worth reading), Antony suggested that he will "use advanced statistics as the first tool to evaluate players before relying on the club's scouts." He also talked about the prioritization of bulking up the analytics department.

 

Whether this is lip service or an actual indication of Antony's evolution on the subject remains to be seen. But at least he recognizes the problematic perceptions of the front office regime under his predecessor, and is actively trying to draw a distinction.

 

* Speaking of the general manager search, the Twins announced that they are hiring search firm Korn Ferry to assist with the process. It's good news, ensuring that the they plan to conduct a comprehensive search for their next baseball ops leader.

 

Most recently, Korn Ferry assisted with the GM hirings of David Stearns by the Brewers and Ross Atkins by the Blue Jays.

 

Stearns, 30, became the youngest general manager in the game when Milwaukee fished him away from Houston. For three years, he had been the right-hand man to Jeff Luhnow with the Astros, helping craft one of the league's most talented young rosters. It was a bold hire.

 

In the case of the Blue Jays, Atkins beat out internal candidate Tony LaCava, the other finalist who had been serving in an interim capacity following the departure of Alex Anthopoulos. Atkins came over after spending 15 years in the Indians organization. It's hard to believe this choice wasn't heavily influenced by Toronto's new president Mark Shapiro, who was very familiar with Atkins having brought him up in Cleveland's front office.

 

* Switching to trade rumblings, it sounds like the Twins won't trade Ervin Santana unless they're overwhelmed by an offer. Given the uncertainties surrounding Phil Hughes (health) and Ricky Nolasco (performance), that's a logical approach, if the team does indeed have aspirations of returning to contention in 2017.

 

He threw nine good innings on Tuesday night against the worst lineup in ball, but Santana just isn't the kind of arm that's going to entice someone to give up a haul.

 

* As for Nolasco, based on everything I've been hearing and reading, the front office would happily ship him to any willing recipient, but interest in the veteran right-hander is undoubtedly low. Nolasco's 5.40 ERA ranks as fifth-worst among qualified MLB starters, and he has tallied more walks than strikeouts this month. Even if the Twins are throwing in a wad of cash, why bother?

 

* A source from a contending team told Mike Berardino that the Twins are in "listening mode--at best" on Kyle Gibson. That's probably the right mindset. Gibson is a fairly reliable rotation piece going forward and his value is depressed right now thanks to a poor start and a shoulder injury that cost him a chunk of the season. The righty quietly has posted a 3.03 ERA over his last five starts.

 

* One club that may be expressing interest in Twins pitchers is Miami. In a column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo wrote that the Marlins had scouts at Fenway last week to watch Nolasco and Tommy Milone.

 

Both got shelled, but regardless of how they pitched in those outings, no one was going to form any illusions about either hittable hurler.

 

* Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted on Tuesday that Eduardo Nunez is among options the first-place Indians have evaluated as they seek to bolster their offense. Presumably, they would install Nunez as their regular third baseman. Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis are holding down the middle infield, while Juan Uribe has done little to distinguish himself at the hot corner.

 

This is one worth keeping an eye on.

 

* Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote last week that Minnesota's trade chips drawing the most attention are Nunez, Kurt Suzuki, Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler.

 

This list isn't surprising, but sort of encapsulates why it's hard to get too jazzed up about this deadline period. The Twins have assets that are intriguing to contenders, but we're talking about a career bench player (prior to this year), a decent-at-best catcher, and a pair of relievers on minor-league contracts.

 

The only opportunity that Antony has to make a major splash would be a shocking move involving, say, Brian Dozier or one of the kids he feels is expendable. But is the interim GM really going to uproot the long-term roster foundation, not to mention the clubhouse dynamic, by taking such a gamble? Hard to envision.

 

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[tobi0040]

Good update Nick

 

I love that we have an outside search firm. It is nice to see the last two hires being external and from Houston and Cleveland

 

If you expand Ricky's numbers back to 2014 he has the highest ERA among qualified starters by more than a half a run. So I think you just might be right. Nobody will be trading for him.

[Rosterman]

Man, I shake my head that Anthony feels he can be competitive in 2017. Maybe he can, but it would be a fluke and having no system failure. Right now, prospects are being delayed, you have a bunch of overpaid starters not producing, the Joe Mauer problem, and something isn't going right on the field,.

 

No, you won't give away Santana. If he was a free agent this winter, he could possibly get the same as owed him by the Twins.

 

You do move Suzuki. Unless you wish to resign him. But try try try to get something and then worry about resigning him.

 

Dump Plouffe. If you do, he becomes another teams arbitration problem. Unless you wish to pay him $10 million in 2017. And then you might as well sign him long term.

 

Figure out what to do with Mauer. At this point, I would ALMOST rather have three more years of Plouffe playing first, or happily have multi years of Vargas and even Park and wish I could go back and get Arcia. He was the face of the franchise, but no more. If someone, anyone would offer him a home...do it. I will admit that he is hitting pretty darn good if it is an eye issue. But putting him at the top of the order and his production pop compared to others isn't working out.

 

You need 40-man roster spots this off-season. If they aren't going to be there come November, no need to have them here this September!

 

 

[Darius]

They'll do nothing of significance again, which is almost comical for me at this point.

 

Wake up. Trade Santana for a decent return along with Dozier, Nunez, Suzuki, Kinzler, and whoever else can be shipped out. If you're serious about competing, don't be so Godawful cheap, take that 13.5 you ship out with Santana, tack another 15-20 onto it, and go sign a couple of guys like Moore, Cashner, Gio Gonzalez to go along with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffey. Go sign a Neil Walker, Prado, or Escobar for the infield. Sign some competent guys for the pen, (or get Chagrois, Hildenberger, etc up at the beginning of the year, instead of pinching another year of service).

 

After you bring in a some decent prospects and adequately replace the departures you'll have more ammo to beef up the roster for a playoff run without raving your while system. If you're on your way to another 90-loss season, you unload this year's signed replacement for more prospects, and on goes the cycle until you find a winner. You have your main guys like Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, etc to build around.

 

I'm of the belief that they have to maximize the value on some of these guys that have contributed to 5 years of futility, if at all possible.. By value I don't mean in terms of the Pohlad's bank account as much as what can be done to set this team up next year, and long into the future.

[KirbyDome89]

I'm not going to lose my mind if Santana sticks around and I didn't think Gibson would be dealt. I will say though, with the exception of Milone, all these starters are coming back next season. Will the Twins finally remove Nolasco from the rotation? Will May finally start some games? What are they doing with Hughes? Berrios should be a lock along with Duffey and Gibson. If the correct decisions are made and the starting rotation reflects the future of the team rather than who on the team is owed the most money,  I'm fine with holding onto Santana and/or Gibson. If we're subjected to another season of below average veterans pitching with a longer leash than they should have, and blocking younger players then sadly I would have to say I'm on the "trade them for what you can get," side. Santana might not bring a ton back, but his value definitely isn't declining right now and most importantly, moving him frees up a rotation spot. Gibson has been up and down as usual but he's younger and much cheaper than Santana. It isn't an ideal scenario, but if you don't have confidence in the Twins to clear the "logjam," (can the worst pitching staff in baseball really have a "logjam?") in the rotation, then the position of trading Santana or Gibson makes complete sense. They may not receive a haul in return, but a spot opens up for a guy like Trevor May, and there is value in that. 

 

[Tibs]

I'm not going to lose my mind if Santana sticks around and I didn't think Gibson would be dealt. I will say though, with the exception of Milone, all these starters are coming back next season. Will the Twins finally remove Nolasco from the rotation? Will May finally start some games? What are they doing with Hughes? Berrios should be a lock along with Duffey and Gibson. If the correct decisions are made and the starting rotation reflects the future of the team rather than who on the team is owed the most money, I'm fine with holding onto Santana and/or Gibson. If we're subjected to another season of below average veterans pitching with a longer leash than they should have, and blocking younger players then sadly I would have to say I'm on the "trade them for what you can get," side. Santana might not bring a ton back, but his value definitely isn't declining right now and most importantly, moving him frees up a rotation spot. Gibson has been up and down as usual but he's younger and much cheaper than Santana. It isn't an ideal scenario, but if you don't have confidence in the Twins to clear the "logjam," (can the worst pitching staff in baseball really have a "logjam?") in the rotation, then the position of trading Santana or Gibson makes complete sense. They may not receive a haul in return, but a spot opens up for a guy like Trevor May, and there is value in that.

I'll have to disagree with that last part. I don't see value in replacing Gibson/Santana with Trevor May. You're breaking even in performance in that scenario at best. Trevor May isn't a Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Julio Urias, or Jose Berrios even. Trevor May provides value to the rotation if he is replacing Nolasco, Milone, or possibly Hughes.

 

And the logjam comes from having pitchers no one really wants. At some point the Twins are going to have to at least try Nolasco in the bullpen or suck it up and cut him.

[The Wise One]

 

They'll do nothing of significance again, which is almost comical for me at this point.

Wake up. Trade Santana for a decent return along with Dozier, Nunez, Suzuki, Kinzler, and whoever else can be shipped out. If you're serious about competing, don't be so Godawful cheap, take that 13.5 you ship out with Santana, tack another 15-20 onto it, and go sign a couple of guys like Moore, Cashner, Gio Gonzalez to go along with Berrios, Gibson, and Duffey. Go sign a Neil Walker, Prado, or Escobar for the infield. Sign some competent guys for the pen, (or get Chagrois, Hildenberger, etc up at the beginning of the year, instead of pinching another year of service).

After you bring in a some decent prospects and adequately replace the departures you'll have more ammo to beef up the roster for a playoff run without raving your while system. If you're on your way to another 90-loss season, you unload this year's signed replacement for more prospects, and on goes the cycle until you find a winner. You have your main guys like Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, etc to build around.

I'm of the belief that they have to maximize the value on some of these guys that have contributed to 5 years of futility, if at all possible.. By value I don't mean in terms of the Pohlad's bank account as much as what can be done to set this team up next year, and long into the future.

Cashner had a couple good seasons a couple of years ago, why would you want another pitcher declining and breaking. Gio is over 30 and not having a good year. Glory days have passed him by.  Middle of the road players are not going to get you top prospects anymore. If you can find the undervalued player in someone else's system that is high risk but high reward and it works, great. When it doesn't you get the teeth gnashing that get prevalent on fan sites who seem to expect perfection.

[The Wise One]

Antony was the assistant to Ryan. He is not a clone of Ryan.  If he had aspirations for a GM job and has a reasonable amount of intelligence, I would think he would have looked at what others do. I wouldn't begin to know how he views talent evaluation. We will find out. 

The search firm lined up an experienced person for Toronto who brought his people with him. I guess country clubs can move.

I looked on the Brewer front office page. The reassigned regime of Melvin and Ash still have prominent roles. I really would not bet on wholesale changes to the front office.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'll have to disagree with that last part. I don't see value in replacing Gibson/Santana with Trevor May. You're breaking even in performance in that scenario at best. Trevor May isn't a Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Julio Urias, or Jose Berrios even. Trevor May provides value to the rotation if he is replacing Nolasco, Milone, or possibly Hughes.

And the logjam comes from having pitchers no one really wants. At some point the Twins are going to have to at least try Nolasco in the bullpen or suck it up and cut him.

That was exactly my point; if they aren't willing to push aside some trash because they're paying them larger salaries, then moving Santana or Gibson would at least bring back some sort of prospect and give May/Berrios a secure spot in the rotation. It isn't the most desirable situation, but standing pat at the deadline and rolling into next season with basically the same starting staff is even worse IMO. 

 

Judging by Antony's comments regarding Santana it doesn't sound like he is going anywhere. I honestly am not sure if the Twins just don't want to move him but are afraid to admit it and face some backlash, or they're actually delusional enough to think he's worth a top prospect. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

One other tidbit....Twins prioritizing pitching, and not limiting the search to buyers only. So if they are looking at sellers, that means they would be giving up prospects or players with years left (Ervin or Mauer)?

 

Teheran, Shelby Miller?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've said it before, I'd have problems keeping Santana.  If they cannot find anyone for milone/Nolasco, then DFA one or both.  I'd rather have Berrios pitching here than one of them.  I'd rather DFA one of them than trade Santana for what will likely be an underwhelming return and still have Milone and Nolasco on the roster next season. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

One other tidbit....Twins prioritizing pitching, and not limiting the search to buyers only. So if they are looking at sellers, that means they would be giving up prospects or players with years left (Ervin or Mauer)?

Teheran, Shelby Miller?

Excuse me?  A team trading for JOE Mauer?  The Mauer with $46M still on contract over the next 2 years?

 

If you find a team like that, we'd probably be able to get the next Babe Ruth back. 

[alarp33]

 

Antony was the assistant to Ryan. He is not a clone of Ryan.  If he had aspirations for a GM job and has a reasonable amount of intelligence, I would think he would have looked at what others do. I wouldn't begin to know how he views talent evaluation. We will find out. 

The search firm lined up an experienced person for Toronto who brought his people with him. I guess country clubs can move.

I looked on the Brewer front office page. The reassigned regime of Melvin and Ash still have prominent roles. I really would not bet on wholesale changes to the front office.

 

It's not going to be up to the search firm to clean house, it will be up to whoever is hired to lead the Baseball Operation.  

[NapoleonComplex]

Any talk of trading Joe is a complete waste of keyboard typing energy. We can discuss hypothetical scenarios with him gone, but why bother?

 

I don't mind the idea of keeping Santana for some veteran presence in the rotation. He's surrendered 10 earned runs over his last six starts, dating back to his Father's Day win at home against the Yankees. Normally I'd be thrilled with his performance bolstering his trade value. However, I'm more thrilled he has put us in positions to win games than other SPs in the rotation. It's also important to have a mentor for our young guys, more especially for Spanish speaking top pitching prospects ... cough, cough, wink, wink. 

 

If we can't find a trade partner for Nolasco and/or Milone, which is very likely, one or both need to be DFA'd to make room for Berrios. At this point I also feel like Wheeler should be given a shot in the rotation. He's putting up numbers similar to Berrios in Rochester.

[tobi0040]

I wish we could move past any hope for trading Nolasco. Even "if we can't trade Nolasco".....

 

We can't trade him. My guess is we have tried for 18 months.

 

He has the worst ERA of any qualified starter over 2.5 years and it isn't close. And he makes more than all but 33 starters in the league.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/starting-pitcher/

[NapoleonComplex]

 

He has the worst ERA of any qualified starter over 2.5 years and it isn't close. And he makes more than all but 33 starters in the league.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/starting-pitcher/

Ugh ... depressing to look at the list of starting pitchers with a lower salary than Nolasco this year: Arrieta, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Sale ... Y U DO DIS!?

[Blackjack]

You'd think some contender (from the National league?) would consider Milone or Nolasco an upgrade to their fifth starter position, they both have more good games than bad. 

 

Keep Santana, unless you can get a good starting pitching prospect that can be inserted into the rotation. Same with Gibson. Face it, the Twins need starting pitching. Beyond Berrios, who should be called up if you start trading all your starters??

 

Dozier, especially with Polanco in the wings, is the one that should be traded, he would bring back the best (starting pitcher!!!) prospect but it won't happen with an interim GM. Thank you Jim Pohlad.

 

Suzuki should also get traded, the young catchers Garver or Murphy should be playing just to see what they have.  But the Twins seem to value/protect/treasure veteran players, I doubt they will trade him.

 

In conclusion, my guess is that they don't make any trades.

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I REALLY like the fact the Jim Pohlad asked around for advice and followed that advice and hired Korn Ferry.  That makes me believe he'll be hiring from the outside.  Ever now and then, it's a good idea to shake things up.

 

The team makeup?  Blah, blah, blah.  I'm leaving that to the new GM.  All players can be moved.  Or do I need to bring up Kevin Correa again?   

[Vanimal46]

I'm prepared to be completely underwhelmed, again, come August 2nd. Nolasco and Milone will have to be DFA'd because the odds of someone else trading for them are slim and none. If they can move the 4 players that have drawn the most attention (Suzuki, Nunez, Abad, Kintzler) that will be a start. 

[Dman]

I think the Twins will trade Abad.  I think they can get a return that will allow them to pull the trigger.  I think they keep Kintzler unless blown away because he has solidified the closer role.  Also I don't think other teams value him that highly.  He sort of is who he is.  He doesn't have a long track record as a closer or dominant relief pitcher.

 

They will keep Santana primarily because they are just too thin on starting pitchers and next years free agents don't look good and prices will likely high for the talent that is there. If they do trade him they do need a good return as they gave up a fairly high second round pick to get him in the first place and right now he might be the best pitcher on our team.  Doubtful that another team will pay the price needed to pry him from the Twins.

 

I am surprised more teams aren't interested in Nunez.  He has top 10 offensive tools and the flexibility to play almost anywhere on the field.  He is top 5 I think in stolen bases and average for the shortstop position and he can hit a home run if you need him too.  He could end up with 20 dingers by the end of the year.  I know defensively he can be a liability but I think his offense more than evens that out.  I would think he could be a valuable weapon or at least excellent insurance for some team willing to pay a price.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You'd think some contender (from the National league?) would consider Milone or Nolasco an upgrade to their fifth starter position, they both have more good games than bad.

Possibly. But at what cost?  I have no doubt that multiple teams would be interested in Milone and Nolasco at minimum salary, but at that point it doesn't make much sense for the Twins to dump them (particularly if they have a spot in the pen to stash them).

[bird]

 

I wish we could move past any hope for trading Nolasco. Even "if we can't trade Nolasco".....

We can't trade him. My guess is we have tried for 18 months.

He has the worst ERA of any qualified starter over 2.5 years and it isn't close. And he makes more than all but 33 starters in the league.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/starting-pitcher/

 

Nolasco's bad for sure, although not as bad as the ERA number suggests. Reports came out that the Orioles, and perhaps others, were scouting Milone and Nolasco, so I'd suggest there is at least a slim hope one or both could be moved for a little something maybe, depending on the willingness of the Twins to absorb some of their contract sins. The way I look at it, I'd very possibly think that Nolasco and Milone, as bad as they are, give me a better shot at winning a given MLB outing than Darnell, Dean, Greenwood, Albers, or even Wheeler, the guys at AAA who have helped Berrios keep that team in contention. So, if a team comes along, desperate for a 5th starter but with worse options than those guys, maybe they throw a bone our way and give Milone or Nolasco a try here.

[beckmt]

Two reasons for moving the starters.

1. You need to figure out over the next couple of years which younger pitchers will make it, the older ones are blocking and need to be moved.

2. After 2017 season there will be ace types available, money must be available to sign them

 

[troyhobbs]

Hoping all this competing in 2017 talk is just a ruse to try and improve offers and not look desperate. Hopefully Antony isn't looking for a king's ransom for these mediocre trade chips a la Terry Ryan. Cut bait, and move on....

 

On the flip side, I read that the Twins are seen as a backup plan for a lot of teams in case they don't end up getting the guys they really want so if the Twins will be involved in any deals (please, for the love of God, make some moves....) it might come down to the wire.

[Loosey]

If the Twins were willing to eat large portions of his salary I could see a team taking on Nolasco as 5th arm.  Yes he is pretty bad overall, but one thing he has done is pitch lots of innings and give the bullpen a rest.  If some team has a young back-end starter they aren't comfortable with down the stretch run I could see this. 

 

However, I put the likelihood of all these parts coming together to be at about 10%.

[Hrbek70]

Look at the crap TR brought in during the years we were contending. I have to believe there is at least one GM just as dumb and will take a chance on Nolasco if we pick up at least $10 million. Saving $6 million is better than nothing.

 

As for Santana, the horrible FA market has to play into his worth. When the top FAs have Helluckson and Hill towards the top of the list, you know the pickings are slim. I wouldn't even move him for someone the equivalent of Gonclaves.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Excuse me? A team trading for JOE Mauer? The Mauer with $46M still on contract over the next 2 years?

 

If you find a team like that, we'd probably be able to get the next Babe Ruth back.

I was just trying to think of who has long-term deals. Dozier probably fits the bill more.

 

Teams trade bad contracts, though. Mauer could be moved if a GM were creative.

[alarp33]

 

Teams trade bad contracts, though. Mauer could be moved if a GM were creative.

 

No he couldn't, he has a no trade clause. Enough already

[tobi0040]

I will give four to one odds that short of paying all but 2.5 million of his salary and getting very little in return, the deadline comes and goes without a Nolasco trade.

[mikelink45]

I am skeptical that they will trade anyone of value - the Twins just don't do that. What ultimately might be the key to the future is jettisoning bad contracts.  Berrios needs to be here, who else?  I don't know.  But right now we have Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco ready for another year or more.  These are albatrosses that hang from Ryan's neck no matter how nice a guy he is supposed to be.  With them and Mauer what are our chances of moving on?  We have some great young players who can grow in the majors, but pitching does not show any potential.  Gibson is inconsistent and getting older than most people think.  Duffey had a great year last year, but would not be in the rotation for any good team.  He has been very bad more than very good.  So what do we have for the future?  Berrios and Santana.  Beyond that I am not excited.  DFA is our option for clearing the deck unless Antony demonstrates that he is genius.