Article: Brandon Kintzler: Proven Closer?

[Cody Christie]

Proven closer...

 

In a baseball world full of analytics and new statistical analysis, what does the term "proven closer" even mean?

 

Old-school baseball minds would tell you that a "proven closer" is the player a manager always turns to in the ninth inning of a close game. He has experience collecting saves and pitching in high leverage situations. It doesn't matter the match-ups for the final frame because the "proven closer" will be out there on the mound. However, not every team has a proven closer and every closer needs to start gaining experience somewhere to earn their "proven closer" badge of honor.Terry Ryan, the Twins recently fired GM, was no stranger to this adage. Entering the 2012 season, Glen Perkins had been dominant in relief the year before but he was hesitant to give him the closer role. "He doesn't have any experience in that role," said Ryan. "I think you're wise to ultimately see if you can find a guy with experience." Perkins would serve as closer that season and he has been a three-time All-Star since 2012.

 

Flash-forward to the 2016 season and the Twins have shuffled through multiple players at the back-end of the bullpen. Glen Perkins began the year with the closer title but he was limited to two appearances before requiring season-ending shoulder surgery. Kevin Jepsen was fantastic at the end of 2015 so he stepped back into the closer role. However, he posted a 6.16 ERA and was recently released by the club.

 

Enter Brandon Kintzler, a 31-year old who the Brewers organization didn't want in the off-season. Since earning his first save on June 8, Kintzler has posted a 1.69 ERA and a 10 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 appearances. Opponents are slashing .238/.262/.317 and he has yet to blow a save.

 

There's been a shift with the former 40th-round draft pick this season. In previous season's he stayed in the low to mid 90's but this season he has hit over 95 multiple times. Another significant change in 2016 has been his use of his sinking fastball. For his career, he has used this pitch 52.8% of the time but this season he has bumped that total up to 83.4%.

 

Kintzler's sinking fastball has also resulted in 15 strikeouts this season which is 75% of all of his strikeouts this season. Over the course of his career, this pitch has been the out pitch in 53.2% of his strikeouts. He ranks third in the American League in ground ball percentage. This pitch has also been effective because he has hit nearly 96 mph with it but he can also drop it all the way down to 87.6 mph.

 

The myth of the "proven closer" might still be out there in some baseball organizations. Kintzler has been good and hopefully someone would like to pay for Kintzler and his new closer title as the trade deadline approaches.

 

Because he seems to have "proven" himself.

 

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[Han Joelo]

As good as 1,2,3 innings are, the occasional escape like he pulled the other night help to provide proof of his resiliency and calm under pressure.  Given what relievers are going for, I could see Kintzler netting something at least as good as what the Twins gave up for Jepsen.  Probably better.  Then again, I know nothing.

[troyhobbs]

I keep waiting for the clock to strike midnight on Kintzler but he continues to pitch great. Even though he fills a position of need I'd still trade him if there is interest before he turns into a pumpkin and figure things out in the off season.

[dbminn]

Seems the Cubs believe in the myth of a "proven closer".

 

 

[DaveW]

Seems the Cubs believe in the myth of a "proven closer".

Or they believe in getting one of the most dominating pitchers this game has seen in a very long time...

[mikelink45]

Trade him.  Learn from the Jepsen experience.  Bullpen pitchers are notoriously unreliable from year to year.  Closing tor a losing team is not the same as it is for a winning organization and we need to experiment with our minor league flame throwers and see what else might be there for the future.  In this lost year it does not make sense to just pad Kinzler's stats. 

[dbminn]

 

Or they believe in getting one of the most dominating pitchers this game has seen in a very long time...

 

Chapman could become one of the most dominating RP in the game. He hasn't yet, not by any metric either last year or this year: ERA, FIP, WAR, WPA, Shutdown/Meltdown %. As of now, he's a proven closer - not the most dominant.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Chapman could become one of the most dominating RP in the game. He hasn't yet, not by any metric either last year or this year: ERA, FIP, WAR, WPA, Shutdown/Meltdown %.

Huh?  Are you seriously arguing the Chapman isn't one of the most dominating RP in the game?  He may not be the "most" dominant this year, but that wasn't the claim -- he is clearly one of the most dominant, and is valued according to that.

 

Chapman's K% ranks among qualified relievers after his rookie year:

 

2016: 6th

2015: 1st

2014: 1st

2013: 1st

2012: 2nd

 

K-BB% ranks (eliminating the overly wild strikeout guys)

 

2016: 6th

2015: 3rd

2014: 1st

2013: 3rd

2012: 2nd

 

Oh, and he has a 1.91 ERA since 2012, and a 1.76 FIP, lest you are concerned that his peripherals haven't led to results.  And a 2.01 ERA and 1.93 FIP this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As good as 1,2,3 innings are, the occasional escape like he pulled the other night help to provide proof of his resiliency and calm under pressure.  Given what relievers are going for, I could see Kintzler netting something at least as good as what the Twins gave up for Jepsen.  Probably better.  Then again, I know nothing.

Yeah, I don't see that.  When we acquired him last year, Jepsen had a career 0.6 HR/9 and 8.5 K/9 in consistently high leverage work.

 

Kintzler has stepped up nicely, but even this year he has a 1.2 HR/9 and a 5.9 K/9, and similar rates for his career (0.9 HR/9, 6.5 K/9).  For his career, he's been a neutral leverage pitcher.  He's more valuable than, say, Blaine Boyer, but I think his effectiveness is probably viewed as closer to Boyer on the spectrum than even Jepsen 2015, much less the arms that went before Jepsen last year and the arms that are being swapped and discussed so far this year.

[Willihammer]

 

Kintzler's sinking fastball has also resulted in 15 strikeouts this season which is 75% of all of his strikeouts this season. Over the course of his career, this pitch has been the out pitch in 53.2% of his strikeouts. This pitch has also been effective because he has hit nearly 96 mph with it but he can also drop it all the way down to 87.6 mph.

Well yeah, the sinker is all he throws. His offspeed stuff is so bad he can't go to it. He is what Mike Pelfrey would look like in the pen. Its a matter of time before hitters expose him because all they have to do is sit on the fastball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well yeah, the sinker is all he throws. His offspeed stuff is so bad he can't go to it. He is what Mike Pelfrey would look like in the pen.

Makes me wish we had actually tried that -- Pelfrey has managed 0.6 bWAR since he returned from surgery in 2013.  In that same time frame, Kintzler has managed 2.8 bWAR....

[dbminn]

 

Huh?  Are you seriously arguing the Chapman isn't one of the most dominating RP in the game?  He may not be the "most" dominant this year, but that wasn't the claim -- he is clearly one of the most dominant, and is valued according to that.

 

Chapman's K% ranks among qualified relievers after his rookie year:

 

2016: 6th

2015: 1st

2014: 1st

2013: 1st

2012: 2nd

 

K-BB% ranks (eliminating the overly wild strikeout guys)

 

2016: 6th

2015: 3rd

2014: 1st

2013: 3rd

2012: 2nd

 

Oh, and he has a 1.91 ERA since 2012, and a 1.76 FIP, lest you are concerned that his peripherals haven't led to results.  And a 2.01 ERA and 1.93 FIP this year.

Yeah, he strikes out a lot of people. He's up on the list but others have been more dominant. Britton, Jansen, Familia, Harris, Davis have all had better SD/MD ratios and WPA this year. Over the past two years, add Ziegler, Cody Allen and Kimbrel to the others. If you want to say all of these relievers are dominant, fine. He's currently at the end of the list.

 

Even Hector Rondon of the Cubs ranks higher in these categories over the last two seasons. Chapman is more proven and will close.

 

As for Chapman, I think he throws hard and he's an established closer. He also has shot more holes in the roof of his garage than any other reliever on this list.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Makes me wish we had actually tried that -- Pelfrey has managed 0.6 bWAR since he returned from surgery in 2013.  In that same time frame, Kintzler has managed 2.8 bWAR....

Sigh. Yes. I wasn't *entirely* against the Pelfrey contract (just mostly against it) because he profiled as an interesting bullpen piece. If you drop Pelfrey's curve (and maybe his splitter or slider, whichever is less effective in relation to the fastball) and let him reel back and throw one inning at a time, I suspect he turns into a much more intimidating pitcher.

 

But we all know how that played out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, he strikes out a lot of people. He's up on the list but others have been more dominant. Britton, Jansen, Familia, Harris, Davis have all had better SD/MD ratios and WPA this year. Over the past two years, add Ziegler, Cody Allen and Kimbrel to the others. If you want to say all of these relievers are dominant, fine. He's currently at the end of the list.

Win Probability Added is a counting stat. It does not indicate the frequency of performance because different players on different teams get a different number of opportunities to shine.

 

If you're the closer for a 95 win team, your WPA *should* be a lot higher than the closer for a 70 win team.

 

To an extent, the same applies to SD/MD. They're counting stats that largely depend on opportunity.

 

For example, Britton has 41 appearances. Chapman has 31 appearances. Don't you think using counting stats is a bit of a problem at that point?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, he strikes out a lot of people. He's up on the list but others have been more dominant. Britton, Jansen, Familia, Harris, Davis have all had better SD/MD ratios and WPA this year. Over the past two years, add Ziegler, Cody Allen and Kimbrel to the others. If you want to say all of these relievers are dominant, fine. He's currently at the end of the list.

SD/MD?  And WPA?  Sounds like you are the one who's looking at closer credentials, not the Cubs.

 

And you know that WPA is a counting stat?  And Chapman missed the first month of the season?  Chapman ranks 8th among relievers in WPA this year at Fangraphs, but has a higher WPA/IP rate than 6 of the guys ahead of him.   (Edit: Coke to Brock!)

 

If you want to diss Chapman because of the off-field stuff, that's fine, but it doesn't change the fact that he is clearly one of the most dominant relievers in the league (a reputation that isn't earned in a year or two by SD/MD and WPA).  And his trade to the Cubs is primarily based on that record, not his closer credentials, and thus has no bearing in the thread subject at hand (Kintzler).

Edited July 26, 2016 by spycake

[Parker Hageman]

Another significant change in 2016 has been his use of his sinking fastball. For his career, he has used this pitch 52.8% of the time but this season he has bumped that total up to 83.4%.

 

 

Before we get too excited about this, let's keep in mind that pitch f/x hasn't always categorized fastballs accurately. For instance, in 2014 they said he threw 17% 4-seam but he was almost exclusively sinkers. When you look at the game charts, the ones labeled "4-seamers" moved the same as the ones labeled "sinkers". 

 

The impressive part is that he is throwing very few secondary pitches in the mix. He's essentially a one-pitch pitcher. Only Kenley Jansen, Zach Britton and Sean Doolittle have leaned on one-pitch more than Kintzler. 

 

**Here's another thing: Britton probably has the best sinking fastball in the game right now. He grips it like a 2-seamer with a slight cross grip. Kintzler, who they categorize as a "sinker", holds his in almost the exact same way. They both have very similar vertical movement (Britton's is thrown much harder) resulting in sink but one is a sinker and the other is a 2-seamer. Shruggy guy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dbminn]

 

 

 

To an extent, the same applies to SD/MD. They're counting stats that largely depend on opportunity.

 

For example, Britton has 41 appearances. Chapman has 31 appearances. Don't you think using counting stats is a bit of a problem at that point?

 

I was talking shutdowns to meltdowns (percentage), which does not depend on number of opportunities. My observation stands on that metric.  Yes, WPA depends on opportunity and leverage. He still doesn't match up to Britton and others over the last two seasons.

 

The original comment was meant to tweak folks about the myth of the closer. Chapman has great stuff and the Cubs need that to win this year. And he's a proven closer. I just had to respond to righteous indignance.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was talking shutdowns to meltdowns (percentage), which does not depend on number of opportunities. My observation stands on that metric.Yes, WPA depends on opportunity and leverage. He still doesn't match up to Britton and others over the last two seasons.

Not only are these suspect stats, but some of this seems factually incorrect too.

 

2016 stats

Chapman 2.22 WPA, 17:3 SD/MD (85%)

Jansen 1.06 WPA, 23:5 SD/MD (82%)

 

2015-2016 stats

Chapman 4.85 WPA, 48:10 SD/MD (82.8%)

Allen 3.14 WPA, 50:11 SD/MD (82.0%)

Kimbrel 3.05 WPA, 57:13 SD/MD (81.4%)

 

Yup, Chapman is clearly at the end of this list...

 

Add to the fact that the Cubs already had a closer, and there were other closers being offered in trade, and none of these other "dominant" guys are pending FA being offered in trade (with the exception of the already traded and questionable record of Ziegler), I am pretty sure it was Chapman's dominance that made him an acquisition target, more than his closing mojo.

Edited July 26, 2016 by spycake

[Rosterman]

Kintzler is one of those guys.....no team is going to grab him to be a closer. They would grab him for depth, which is what the Twins did. Before trading, they would weigh their own minor league options.

 

So the chances are good that Kintzler will remain a Twin going into the of season and join the notorious group of Guerrier, Burton, Boyer, Fien and others that the Twins have stashed on their major league roster and we can't rpedict where they will eventually end up or how much wear we can get out of them.

 

Even a team seeking a lefty might punt for Abad. Maybe not. 

 

Face it...the Twins really don't have a lot of guys that teams will fight over. More so, tems will wait to see what direction the Twins do take and what they do with their pieces (don't offer arbitration to Plouffe in off-season, for example, or just release Nolasco and eat his salary next year).

 

More and more I don't see the Twins eating salary if they don't have to. But I see them parting ways with a player (i.e. Plouffe) rather than overpay.

 

So unless a few prospects don't fit into future plans (perhaps Polanco or Walker) and they can be packaged with a salary, we may have to wait to see if some guys can peak out and create interest in their arms, fer sure, in 2017 before that trade deadline, assuming the Twins aren't in the playoff hunt.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

In a baseball world full of analytics and new statistical analysis, what does the term "proven closer" even mean?
 

 

It's a guy who is so unhittable you'd trust him with the game on the line. 

 

Wade Davis was a proven closer even when he was an 8th inning guy. He had the stuff and the mindset.

 

Kintzler? He's having a great year and the new-found command is helping him. But proven? Eh. If the right offer comes around, he's highly movable.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it's a cool story!

[alarp33]

 

 

 

The original comment was meant to tweak folks about the myth of the closer.

 

I think most people on this site are aware of the myth of the closer.  You picked a very odd example to try and prove a point, one that doesn't actually work.  

[Han Joelo]

 

Yeah, I don't see that.  When we acquired him last year, Jepsen had a career 0.6 HR/9 and 8.5 K/9 in consistently high leverage work.

 

Kintzler has stepped up nicely, but even this year he has a 1.2 HR/9 and a 5.9 K/9, and similar rates for his career (0.9 HR/9, 6.5 K/9).  For his career, he's been a neutral leverage pitcher.  He's more valuable than, say, Blaine Boyer, but I think his effectiveness is probably viewed as closer to Boyer on the spectrum than even Jepsen 2015, much less the arms that went before Jepsen last year and the arms that are being swapped and discussed so far this year.

Perhaps Kintzler is an example of the rubber meeting the road--at what point, as a GM of a contending team, do you rely on long-term statistics vs. SSS theater?  I read in MLBTR that teams are looking hard at Huston Street and other "proven relievers" with good career numbers, with the caveat that these guys aren't having their best seasons ever.  

 

Kintzler's currently gettin' her done.  Obviously, no contender is trading for him to close or even pitch late innings.  For teams going all in, and luxury shopping for every eventuality, acquiring a Kintzler for your bullpen might be a smart move, and one that would be worth a Hu-level prospect.

 

Guy's who can get David Ortiz to ground into a DP, with the bases loaded, on the road, with no outs…again--I KNOW what his track record says.  But he's hot right now.  Relievers are lightning in a bottle. Grab it while you can.

[DaveW]

Kintzler is far from a "proven" closer, so his trade value at this point is minimal. Hold onto him, hope he keeps this up for the rest of this year and next year and then trade him if you don't contend next year.

 

id rather keep him for 2017 then have them

Overspend on the FA market for a "proven" closer. Maybe the next GM will be different, but the Twins have always put the closer role on a pretty high pedestal.

[Deduno Abides]

Trade him.  Learn from the Jepsen experience.  Bullpen pitchers are notoriously unreliable from year to year.  Closing tor a losing team is not the same as it is for a winning organization and we need to experiment with our minor league flame throwers and see what else might be there for the future.  In this lost year it does not make sense to just pad Kinzler's stats.

 

Yes, and throw something else against the wall next year. If it sticks, trade it, also. Closer is about the 15th position to fill on a winning team (maybe last, if you're Theo Epstein) and probably lower on a losing team.

[Cody Christie]

 

Trade him.  Learn from the Jepsen experience.  Bullpen pitchers are notoriously unreliable from year to year. 

I agree. It would be nice to get something for him.