July 25, 201610 yr Diamondbacks are apparently shopping Shelby Miller.Obviously this year has been a disaster for Miller, but he is still only 25 years old, and won't be a free agent until 2019 or 2020 I believe. His previous 3 seasons he averaged 187 IP and a 3.27 ERA. The upside is certainly still there, and the cost shouldn't be "huge" at this point due to Arizona's willingness to move on. Would you consider trading Gibson+Nunez for Miller? Gibson steps in and because a solid mid rotation guy for them moving forward (plus he has a couple years left of team control as well)Nunez provides some up the middle and INF depth (Nunez seems ideal for an NL team anyways) Arizona though doesn't lack bats, so maybe Nunez would have to be swapped out for someone else?Thoughts?
July 25, 201610 yr Diamondbacks are apparently shopping Shelby Miller.Obviously this year has been a disaster for Miller, but he is still only 25 years old, and won't be a free agent until 2019 or 2020 I believe. His previous 3 seasons he averaged 187 IP and a 3.27 ERA. The upside is certainly still there, and the cost shouldn't be "huge" at this point due to Arizona's willingness to move on. Would you consider trading Gibson+Nunez for Miller? Gibson steps in and because a solid mid rotation guy for them moving forward (plus he has a couple years left of team control as well)Nunez provides some up the middle and INF depth (Nunez seems ideal for an NL team anyways) Arizona though doesn't lack bats, so maybe Nunez would have to be swapped out for someone else?Thoughts? Not in a million years would I deal Gibson for Miller. No.
July 25, 201610 yr And I'm the complete opposite. I'd deal Gibson for Miller in a heart beat. I don't want either. Is that an option? :-)
July 25, 201610 yr I probably wouldn't do that. Shelby Miller is a mess right now, and that's with the luxury of pitching in the NL. Also he's got a career 4.02 FIP, compared to Gibson's 4.07.
July 25, 201610 yr Author I probably wouldn't do that. Shelby Miller is a mess right now, and that's with the luxury of pitching in the NL. Also he's got a career 4.02 FIP, compared to Gibson's 4.07.FIP 3.45 in 2015, 3.67 in 2013. He also is 3 years younger than Gibson and has a lot more upside than Gibson.
July 25, 201610 yr Author Not in a million years would I deal Gibson for Miller. No.Why? Miller is 3 years young, has more upside and has better results overall in the major leagues than Gibson has. (This isn't getting into injury issues with Gibson)
July 25, 201610 yr Shelby Miller:644 IP, 3.64 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9 Kyle Gibson:496 IP, 4.46 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9 Why would I want to give up the second guy and Eduardo Nunez to get the first guy?
July 25, 201610 yr FIP 3.45 in 2015, 3.67 in 2013. He also is 3 years younger than Gibson and has a lot more upside than Gibson.Miller's upside makes it a consideration, but he has been a little underwhelming in his career so far. He had an 8.8 K/9 in 2013, then 6.2, 7.5, and back down to 6.5 this year. How does that translate to the AL? And him being absolutely awful this year is worrisome too.
July 25, 201610 yr Author Shelby Miller:644 IP, 3.64 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9 Kyle Gibson:496 IP, 4.46 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9 Why would I want to give up the second guy and Eduardo Nunez to get the first guy?Miller is 3 years young, has more upside, is significantly more healthy and has better results. (Trot out FIP all you want, but when you have a 644 IP sample size your ERA tells a good chunk of the story IMO.Nunez has turned back into a pumpkin anyways, he is a decent hitting but poor fielding Util guy (and it opens up a spot for Polanco)Basically you flip a 28 year old #4 (with injury history) and Nunez for Miller, a guy who at worst will be a 4 for you, is only 25, has more upside and could potentially be a #2 type.
July 25, 201610 yr Let's see: Miller's career numbers against the AL: 4.60 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.88 K/BBGibson's career numbers: 4.46 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.04 K/BB. Plus Miller is on the decline. Plus he is making much more ($4.5M this season, plus a couple more arb seasons.) I think that Gibson is too much. If they want someone else like Nolasco (to balance the $ situation) who is a rebound candidate in the NL, plus a prospect, sure.
July 25, 201610 yr Author Miller's upside makes it a consideration, but he has been a little underwhelming in his career so far. He had an 8.8 K/9 in 2013, then 6.2, 7.5, and back down to 6.5 this year. How does that translate to the AL? And him being absolutely awful this year is worrisome too.That's sort of why you take the chance on him now.If he was posting a 3.05 ERA like he did last year at this time, then Arizona likely wouldn't be shopping him or the cost would be much higher. It's also his third team, (and thus 3rd pitching coach) in the last 3 years, he won't turn 26 until the year is over, so there is still plenty of time to have him reach his potential. There is a reason why he was a perennial top 10 prospect for BA, and he has had pretty solid success in 3 of his first 4 years.
July 25, 201610 yr Does he have more upside? He is largely what he is.....a guy with a good number of innings of being below average in FIP. He quite literally has alternated between being good and being replacement level or worse every year.I don't see this great pitcher....
July 25, 201610 yr Miller is 3 years young, has more upside, is significantly more healthy and has better results. (Trot out FIP all you want, but when you have a 644 IP sample size your ERA tells a good chunk of the story IMO.Nunez has turned back into a pumpkin anyways, he is a decent hitting but poor fielding Util guy (and it opens up a spot for Polanco)Basically you flip a 28 year old #4 (with injury history) and Nunez for Miller, a guy who at worst will be a 4 for you, is only 25, has more upside and could potentially be a #2 type. "has more upside".....what does that mean? Miller has been terrible 2 of the 4 years he has been in the majors full time. What is this upside, and where is it hiding?
July 25, 201610 yr Does he have more upside? He is largely what he is.....a guy with a good number of innings of being below average in FIP. He quite literally has alternated between being good and being replacement level or worse every year.I don't see this great pitcher....You talking about Miller or Gibson? :-)
July 25, 201610 yr Author Let's see: Miller's career numbers against the AL: 4.60 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 1.88 K/BBGibson's career numbers: 4.46 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.04 K/BB. Plus Miller is on the decline. Plus he is making much more ($4.5M this season, plus a couple more arb seasons.) I think that Gibson is too much. If they want someone else like Nolasco (to balance the $ situation) who is a rebound candidate in the NL, plus a prospect, sure.He has pitched exactly 13 games against the AL, I think that is a bit of a SSS, and looking deeper into the numbers he fared well against everyone but the Yankees and A's in who he faced in the AL (in Oakland he gave up 6 runs in one inning) so that skews things a bit.I think its a little silly to say Miller is on the decline as well, considering last year he posted his best ERA, FIP, k/9 etc in his career. Plus he is only 25!
July 25, 201610 yr Miller is 3 years young, has more upside, is significantly more healthy and has better results. (Trot out FIP all you want, but when you have a 644 IP sample size your ERA tells a good chunk of the story IMO.Nunez has turned back into a pumpkin anyways, he is a decent hitting but poor fielding Util guy (and it opens up a spot for Polanco)Basically you flip a 28 year old #4 (with injury history) and Nunez for Miller, a guy who at worst will be a 4 for you, is only 25, has more upside and could potentially be a #2 type.Miller would not be a #2 in the American League. His K% has been on decline for several years (down to 15.7% this season from a peak of 23.4%). You say Miller would be "at worst a #4"... Have you looked at his stats this season? He's awful. If he was in the AL, he's Ricky Nolasco or Tommy Milone. And, sure, go ahead and use ERA over FIP. That's actually okay with me... But only if you adjust Miller's ERA to the American League, which brings it within a few points of Gibson. And we're back to square one. The only thing Miller has going for him is his age. I'd be interested in taking a flyer on the guy but not for Gibson. The Twins need pitchers and swapping Gibson for Miller is shuffling deck chairs and possibly losing in the process (as Miller has been terrible this season while Gibson appears to be turning it around after the injury).
July 25, 201610 yr "has more upside".....what does that mean? Miller has been terrible 2 of the 4 years he has been in the majors full time. What is this upside, and where is it hiding?This year he's been bad, but where's his other year he's been terrible?
July 25, 201610 yr Author Does he have more upside? He is largely what he is.....a guy with a good number of innings of being below average in FIP. He quite literally has alternated between being good and being replacement level or worse every year.I don't see this great pitcher....You could say the exact same about Kyle Gibson, except for the good number of innings of course (and 3 years older with injury issues)
July 25, 201610 yr I'd trade Mike Sixel AND Vanimal46 for a Miller in a heartbeat. Edited July 25, 201610 yr by HitInAPinch
July 25, 201610 yr This year he's been bad, but where's his other year he's been terrible? two years ago he had a .3 WAR......replacement/ terrible, which is what I said in teh earlier one, but left off that one, my bad.
July 25, 201610 yr I'd take Miller if it's a steal of a deal and knowing Dave Stewart and the Diamondbacks, it probably will be. I'd like to hang on to Gibson for another year though. I think he's getting bad advice based on old philosophy. He has a sinker and it always seems to me the Twins think if a guy has a sinker he should use it to get ground balls as frequently as possible. However Gibson's slider and change are better pitches and I'm of the opinion he should be using those to miss bats with two strikes instead. He still has good velocity, I'd like to see if a new GM overhauls some of the approaches and fixes Gibson.
July 25, 201610 yr Funny how in the offseason this topic also came up, and the proposals back then were Kepler for Miller... http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20785-shelby-miller-trade/?hl=%2Bshelby+%2Bmiller
July 25, 201610 yr You could say the exact same about Kyle Gibson, except for the good number of innings of course (and 3 years older with injury issues) Right, so why trade Gibson for Gibson?
July 25, 201610 yr Funny how in the offseason this topic also came up, and the proposals back then were Kepler for Miller... http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20785-shelby-miller-trade/?hl=%2Bshelby+%2Bmiller We have more data, should we ignore that data?
July 25, 201610 yr And here is post 2, by a brilliant person: I think he's reached his peak.....not sure i"m a believer. Some days I am, some I am not......so I'm not sure I would use their resources on him, but I wouldn't crucify them if they did.... Edited July 25, 201610 yr by Mike Sixel
July 25, 201610 yr I think Miller could be a great buy-low option. However, as people pointed out Miller and Gibson have fairly similar peripherals, despite Miller's pedigree as a former prospect and the National League pitcher effect. I would deal Nunez for Miller. But I doubt the D-backs would be open to that trade since they looking to reload for next year as Nunez would probably have more appeal for a contender, plus Arizona is deep in the middle infield.
July 25, 201610 yr I'd trade Mike Sixel AND Vanimal46 for a Miller in a heartbeat.Unfortunately my agent negotiated a full no-trade clause just like Mauer. I'm here for life!
July 25, 201610 yr Author Miller would not be a #2 in the American League. His K% has been on decline for several years (down to 15.7% this season from a peak of 23.4%). You say Miller would be "at worst a #4"... Have you looked at his stats this season? He's awful. If he was in the AL, it's likely he's Ricky Nolasco or Tommy Milone. And, sure, go ahead and use ERA over FIP. That's actually okay with me... But only if you adjust Miller's ERA to the American League... And then it's within a few points of Gibson. The only thing Miller has going for him is his age. I'd be interested in taking a flyer on the guy but not for Gibson. The Twins need pitchers and swapping Gibson for Miller is shuffling deck chairs and possibly losing in the process (as Miller has been terrible this season while Gibson appears to be turning it around after the injury).Yes, I have acknowledged that he is having a bad year for Arizona, thank you for acting like I didn't say that, everyone knows he is having a bad year for them, that is why they are looking to trade him. You don't need to clear this up anymore!His K rate was 19.9% last year. Not bad.Gibson has a 4.67 ERA and a 4.30 FIP this year, let's stop acting like he is some real asset to this team. You say he has turned it around since his injury? He has given up 4 or more runs in 5 of the 8 games!!!! since he has come back from his injury.
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