Article: Parting Gifts: Ryan's 5 Best Final Moves

[Nick Nelson]

In the wake of his dismissal as general manager, there has been much discussion of Terry Ryan's missteps. Rightfully so.

 

But despite the poor results this year, Ryan did make a few notably good moves, and many were the apparent result of savvy scouting. Amidst the focus on his shortcomings, we'll take a look at a few instances where Ryan's instincts paid off (and may continue to pay off long after he's gone).These five low-key decisions, dating back to the end of last season, all worked out better than anyone would have suspected. Three of them involve bullpen pickups, which is somewhat ironic considering that Ryan's lack of action on that front was a primary source of offseason criticism.

 

Let's give the man his due:

 

Believing in Fernando Abad

 

Most fans, including myself, rolled their eyes when Abad became the highest-profile addition to the Twins bullpen during the offseason. For a team badly needing impact left-handed relievers, bypassing the big names on the market and settling for a guy who couldn't get a major-league deal left something to be desired.

 

As it turns out, the Twins were astute in preferring Abad over the high-priced free agent alternatives. His numbers have been vastly superior to Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp, and he came with only a fraction of the contractual commitment. Now, Rob Antony may be able to flip Abad ahead of the deadline for a decent prospect.

 

Signing Robbie Grossman

 

Following a 2015 campaign that was poor across the board, the Astros released Grossman in November. He went on to sign a minor-league deal with the Indians. After six weeks with Cleveland's Triple-A affiliate, seeing no path to the majors, Grossman opted out and became a free agent. Ryan liked what he saw and snagged him, and now the outfielder is looking like a potential piece for the future.

 

He certainly can't be counted on to maintain an .850 OPS long-term, but Grossman brings a skill set that offers good value off the bench. He's a switch-hitter. He's a solid fielder and runner. He has a keen eye at the plate, and walks enough to keep his OBP afloat through hitting slumps. And finally, he's only 26 with plenty of team control left.

 

Uncovering Buddy Boshers

 

Last year, Boshers was pitching in an independent league. He performed very well for the Somerset Patriots, and after the season he drew interest from a few different MLB clubs. No one pushed harder than the Twins, who landed him on a minor-league deal in December. What a find he is turning out to be.

 

The 28-year-old southpaw has excelled consistently this year, whether in Rochester or Minnesota. In 20 appearances with the Red Wings, he has a 1.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 26-to-8 K/BB ratio. In 17 appearances with the Twins, he has a 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 18-to-3 K/BB. He misses bats, stays in the zone and devastates left-handed hitters. What's not to like?

 

Boshers and Abad have become legitimate lefty bullpen options for the Twins going forward, along with Taylor Rogers who was drafted in TR's first year back at the helm. Give the exiled GM this much: he addressed this particular area effectively, albeit in characteristically subtle fashion.

 

Trading Chris Herrmann for Daniel Palka

 

It's safe to say that Chris Herrmann was not in Minnesota's plans this year, right? He was out of options, with a .530 career OPS, and his fringy receiving skills weren't exactly appealing to a team in need of help behind the plate. Somehow, Ryan managed to flip Herrmann for Palka, whose power-hitting skills have only grown more prolific in a new system.

 

Palka's homer last Wednesday in Rochester was his 25th of the year in the minors. No Twin has more than 17. The 24-year-old put on a show in spring training with his long-ball theatrics and is reinforcing his power-hitting prowess with dominant numbers in Double-A and Triple-A. Acquiring Palka for a player who was on his way out will go down as a big win for Ryan.

 

Betting on Brandon Kintzler

 

Kintzler was once a very effective setup man for the Brewers, but had fallen off in recent years. Ryan believed that there was still something left, and it looks like he was right.

 

With Glen Perkins out for the year, and Kevin Jepsen released, Kintzler has taken over the closer role. He has done a damn good job, converting all eight of his save chances despite lacking dominant stuff. Clearly he isn't a long-term ninth-inning solution but he does have the makings of a quality bullpen arm. The Jared Burton parallels are obvious.

 

Click here to view the article

[Brandon]

Does tendering Nunez count as a parting gift?  a lot of people here wanted him non-tendered. 

[DocBauer]

Ryan missed the mark big time in various areas the past few years, which is why he is gone now. But to be fair, he has done a very nice job picking up very useful bits and pieces here and there over the years that have turned out to be real contributors. These are some fine examples. (Might have had a 6th had the kept catcher Hicks)

 

But to be equally fair, I don't know if Ryan can be complimented entirely for these moves, and past moves. Surely various Twins scouts also had a hand in at least discovering and recommending these guys.

 

Not that he is old, but he is old enough, and had some health issues, that I wonder if the life time baseball man will hang it up for good? If not, I could easily see another team bringing him on as a scout or advisor.

[old nurse]

He gets the blame when the scouts guess wrong, Ryan can get some credit for scout being right.

[mazeville]

The trade for Milone was pretty solid, too. Don't forget that.

 

The common denominator here is that they are under-the-radar deals. TR works best on small finds and small trades. He doesn't do well with major free agent signings. Or at least he hasn't since his return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now, Rob Antony may be able to flip Abad ahead of the deadline for a decent prospect.

 

...

 

Acquiring Palka for a player who was on his way out will go down as a big win for Ryan.

These kind of statements seem to be getting out ahead of things.  I don't think we can give credit for flipping Abad for a decent return before it actually happens, and while Palka is an interesting prospect, he might have to become more than that for the Twins to win that trade, as Herrmann has finally looked like he could hold his own with the bat in Arizona.  (Perhaps Herrmann was never going to achieve that with the Twins, but that to me suggests a problem with our coaching staff rather than a guy who should have been "on his way out").

 

Also, while the Twins deserve some credit for signing Grossman, it appears that David Murphy deserves an assist for deciding to retire (but not before we lost John Hicks from a catching-starved organization).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Give the exiled GM this much: he addressed this particular area effectively, albeit in characteristically subtle fashion.

I think this also misinterprets much of the criticism leveled at TR and his bullpen plan.  I don't think anyone denied the Twins could have a decent bullpen, whether it was the guys already on the team or a few contributors cropping up from minor league signings, etc.

 

I think the big criticism was TR's plan made it very difficult to have a plus bullpen, which could have been an important part of our plan to contend.  He was counting on a lot of iffy guys at the outset, carried over from a suspect group last year, guys would be given an ample chance to fail first before they could be replaced.  Then once the reinforcements came (mostly after we were out of the race), they were guys like Abad and Kintzler, lower upside guys who could certainly have a nice run of results, but were never likely to see sustainable dominance.

 

Indeed, our bullpen is 13th in the AL by ERA-, 12th by FIP-.  Not a big deal given the other failures on our team, but hardly an asset deserving of praise for a team that was hoping to compete in modern MLB either.  We were 9th and 11th in those measures last year, 8th and 11th in 2014, 6th and 7th in 2013, etc.  I'm not sure that TR really addressed it particularly effectively, given our hopes of contention -- his plan was likely to produce a more or less repeat of our recent years bullpen performance, rather than an asset.

[Thrylos]

I don't know about the Palka trade.  I think that the Twins could use a catcher who is hitting .290/.350/.503 in the majors more than they can use an outfielder who is hitting .279/.354/.557 between AA/AAA.

 

The fact that the Twins did not trust Herrmann or can get that out of him, is a totally different conversation, and definitely does not look good for Ryan (and Co)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, the Twins could use Herrmann this season but are people really convinced the real Chris Herrmann has suddenly emerged from the ether?

 

That's... Kinda insane, IMO.

 

Chris Herrmann has 161 plate appearances this season. Well, that's... Not a lot. A guy can rake for a few weeks and look great with that sample size.

 

Oh, wait, then we look at his splits:

 

April: 31 PAs, .607 OPS, .118 BABIP

May: 67 PAs, 1.122 OPS, .472 BABIP (whoa!)

June: 48 PAs, .697 OPS, .344 BABIP

July: 20 PAs, .824 OPS, .500 BABIP

 

His 2016 BABIP total is .371.

 

Maybe it's just me but my Magic 8-Ball reads "Reply Hazy, Try Again".

[Mike Sixel]

All nice minor moves, I don't think anyone doubts his ability to do minor moves. Seems to be his specialty.

[Thrylos]

 

Sure, the Twins could use Herrmann this season but are people really convinced the real Chris Herrmann has suddenly emerged from the ether?

 

That's... Kinda insane, IMO.

 

Chris Herrmann has 161 plate appearances this season. Well, that's... Not a lot. A guy can rake for a few weeks and look great with that sample size.

 

Oh, wait, then we look at his splits:

 

April: 31 PAs, .607 OPS, .118 BABIP

May: 67 PAs, 1.122 OPS, .472 BABIP (whoa!)

June: 48 PAs, .697 OPS, .344 BABIP

July: 20 PAs, .824 OPS, .500 BABIP

 

His 2016 BABIP total is .371.

 

Maybe it's just me but my Magic 8-Ball reads "Reply Hazy, Try Again".

 

Interestingly enough if you look at Herrmann's career BABIP with the Twins organization, up to and including 2012 and in AAA in 2014 (i.e. the seasons he did not have Brunansky as his hitting coach) is not out of line with the above .371 annual.  Herrmann at some point was a top-10 Twins' prospect and had a great ability for hitting LDs in both fields.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Thrylos

[alarp33]

I was not a Terry Ryan guy in the least, but have no problem admitting he did make the occasional move that worked out better than expected.  

 

However, these are some odd examples.  If he believed in Abad so much, why didn't he get a Major League contract, he wasn't concerned another team would swoop in with one?  

 

Boshers is a dime a dozen and has pitched a whopping 16 innings.  I'm also not ready to anoint Kintzler as some bullpen savior.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, the Twins could use Herrmann this season but are people really convinced the real Chris Herrmann has suddenly emerged from the ether?

 

That's... Kinda insane, IMO.

 

Chris Herrmann has 161 plate appearances this season. Well, that's... Not a lot. A guy can rake for a few weeks and look great with that sample size.

 

Oh, wait, then we look at his splits:

 

April: 31 PAs, .607 OPS, .118 BABIP

May: 67 PAs, 1.122 OPS, .472 BABIP (whoa!)

June: 48 PAs, .697 OPS, .344 BABIP

July: 20 PAs, .824 OPS, .500 BABIP

 

His 2016 BABIP total is .371.

 

Maybe it's just me but my Magic 8-Ball reads "Reply Hazy, Try Again".

I don't think anyone is claiming Chris Herrmann is now an .853 OPS hitter in MLB.  But he doesn't have to be for the Twins to be losing this trade right now, or to raise the bar for Palka.  He's showing signs of life at the plate beyond pure BABIP -- give him a league average BABIP and his OPS goes down to .761, but that's still better than a resurgent Suzuki this year (although it would probably be a hair behind Suzuki in OPS+, given Arizona's ballpark).

 

That could easily be useful going forward with team control and arbitration salaries for the next 3 years, especially if he really can be a backup OF too (imagine if our backup catcher could help push Danny Santana off the roster...).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think anyone is claiming Chris Herrmann is now an .853 OPS hitter in MLB.  But he doesn't have to be for the Twins to be losing this trade right now, or to raise the bar for Palka.  He's showing signs of life at the plate beyond pure BABIP -- give him a league average BABIP and his OPS goes down to .761, but that's still better than a resurgent Suzuki this year (although it would probably be a hair behind Suzuki in OPS+, given Arizona's ballpark).

 

That could easily be useful going forward with team control and arbitration salaries for the next 3 years, especially if he really can be a backup OF too (imagine if our backup catcher could help push Danny Santana off the roster...).

Sure, Herrmann has improved in some important, and sustainable, ways.

 

But my point was really found in the last line of the post. "Reply Hazy, Try Again".

 

We're excited about Palka. The Diamondbacks are surely excited about Herrmann.

 

But there's a lot of short-term fluctuation going on here and we don't know if any of it is sustainable, both from Herrmann and Palka. As with most trades involving prospects, the real winner won't be known for a few years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Interestingly enough if you look at Herrmann's career BABIP with the Twins organization, up to and including 2012 and in AAA in 2014 (i.e. the seasons he did not have Brunansky as his hitting coach) is not out of line with the above .371 annual.  Herrmann at some point was a top-10 Twins' prospect and had a great ability for hitting LDs in both fields.

That BABIP is still pretty far out of line -- Herrmann's BABIPs:

 

2009 R .330

2010 A+ .270

2011 AA .305

2012 AA .317

2013 AAA .292

2014 AAA .368

 

That last one also featured the smallest number of plate appearances among these seasons.

 

But see my post above -- Herrmann doesn't need to sustain this great BABIP to be a valuable contributor.

 

[jorgenswest]

Chris Herrmann is not a good framer this year or previous. On a per game basis though, he is in the neighborhood of some regular catchers like Navarro and Vogt. Centeno (in samples over 1000) has the poorest per game framing numbers in baseball. Herrmann did pretty well throwing out runners with the Twins and has continued to do well with the Diamondbacks. Seth argued at the time that he could be an average major league hitter relative to catchers. This is not the kind of player the Twins could afford to give up for a corner guy.

 

I am not convinced that Herrmann has the defense to be a regular catcher or enough bat to have a Doumit type role. It is quite possible that he is a better option than either Centeno or Murphy. The same personnel that recommended the Murphy and Herrmann moves are the people advising Antony right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That BABIP is still pretty far out of line -- Herrmann's BABIPs:

 

2009 R .330

2010 A+ .270

2011 AA .305

2012 AA .317

2013 AAA .292

2014 AAA .368

 

That last one also featured the smallest number of plate appearances among these seasons.

 

But see my post above -- Herrmann doesn't need to sustain this great BABIP to be a valuable contributor.

Expecting a .371 BABIP from any player that isn't elite is unreasonable... Hell, it's even unreasonable to expect it from the vast majority of elite players.

 

Miggy has something like a .350 career BABIP (don't feel like checking right now). Expecting Herrmann to top that number is crazy talk.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sure, Herrmann has improved in some important, and sustainable, ways.

 

But my point was really found in the last line of the post. "Reply Hazy, Try Again".

 

We're excited about Palka. The Diamondbacks are surely excited about Herrmann.

 

But there's a lot of short-term fluctuation going on here and we don't know if any of it is sustainable, both from Herrmann and Palka. As with most trades involving prospects, the real winner won't be known for a few years.

 

I'm more intrigued by Palka than excited........

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, Herrmann has improved in some important, and sustainable, ways.

 

But my point was really found in the last line of the post. "Reply Hazy, Try Again".

 

We're excited about Palka. The Diamondbacks are surely excited about Herrmann.

 

But there's a lot of short-term fluctuation going on here and we don't know if any of it is sustainable, both from Herrmann and Palka. As with most trades involving prospects, the real winner won't be known for a few years.

Exactly.  That's why we take issue with the article's assertion that the trade "will go down as a big win" for TR (while not mentioning Herrmann at all).  I said that Palka "might have to become more than an interesting prospect for the Twins to win that trade."  Thrylos said "I don't know about the Palka trade."

 

It sounds like your issue is with Nick too, not us.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm more intrigued by Palka than excited........

Yeah, same here. Excited is the wrong word.

 

Well, maybe I'm a *little* excited.

 

For example, I'm intrigued by Adam Brett Walker. I don't think he'll be a good MLB hitter but he's an interesting case to follow and see how it all plays out in time.

 

Whereas Palka looks a bit more legit.

 

Eh, either way, it's nothing to rave about.

[Thrylos]

 

That BABIP is still pretty far out of line -- Herrmann's BABIPs:

 

2009 R .330

2010 A+ .270

2011 AA .305

2012 AA .317

2013 AAA .292

2014 AAA .368

 

Forgot:

2011 A+ .317
2011 AFL .405
2012 AFL .556
2012 Twins .077

and this one:

2013 AAA .292

was with Brunansky as his hitting coach.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Expecting a .371 BABIP from any player that isn't elite is unreasonable... Hell, it's even unreasonable to expect it from the vast majority of elite players.

 

Miggy has something like a .350 career BABIP (don't feel like checking right now). Expecting Herrmann to top that number is crazy talk.

Who the heck are you responding too?  No one is expecting a .371 BABIP from Herrmann.

I think Thrylos probably overstated Herrmann's batting history, but I doubt even he thinks this is a sustainable BABIP, or he wouldn't have started his first post with "I don't know about the Palka trade" -- it would be a clear win for Arizona if he thought that BABIP was remotely sustainable.

 

Please read these comments in the context of Nick's "big win" statement in the article.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Forgot:

2011 A+ .317
2011 AFL .405
2012 AFL .556
2012 Twins .077

and this one:

2013 AAA .292

was with Brunansky as his hitting coach.

Them are some very small samples.

 

I think the most encouraging thing about Herrmann's past batting history is the K/BB rates.  He's still not looking good in MLB in the K department, although he's better than 2015.  But if he can add some power to the mix, and holds his own in the BABIP department, he could be solid.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Who the heck are you responding too?  No one is expecting a .371 BABIP from Herrmann.

 

I think Thrylos probably overstated Herrmann's batting history, but I doubt even he thinks this is a sustainable BABIP, or he wouldn't have started his first post with "I don't know about the Palka trade" -- it would be a clear win for Arizona if he thought that BABIP was remotely sustainable.

 

Please read these comments in the context of Nick's "big win" statement in the article.

I wasn't arguing with you, I was putting Thrylos' comments about Herrmann's BABIP into context of other MLB hitters, specifically Miguel Cabrera.

 

I think we can both agree that a .371 BABIP is completely out of line with what we can expect from Herrmann going forward.

 

But that doesn't mean he can't be a useful and productive player for the Diamondbacks.

 

And we haven't even touched on his defense, which pretty much prevents him from ever being anything more than a backup catcher with relatively unknown hitting potential.

 

In the context of the trade, both teams should feel good about themselves as of today. How it goes tomorrow, well, dunno.

[Nick Nelson]

Bottom line is that Herrmann was on his way out, and rightfully so. Ryan got something of actual value for him, which is a win, regardless of what happens going forward.

It's pretty amusing to watch some of the hindsight judgments playing out here, though. I had completely forgotten what big Herrmann supporters you all were!

[Thrylos]

 

 

 Thrylos said "I don't know about the Palka trade."

 

Yeah.  I am not sure that it is a win for the Twins.  And I think that Palka is great and should be on the Twins' roster by September.

 

Herrmann is probably better than any catcher the Twins currently have above A ball.

 

And, effectively the Twins did not trade Herrmann for Palka.  You have to see the trade in the context of the off-season after a season that were close to contending.  They traded:

 

Herrmann for JR Murphy and

Hicks for Palka

 

Did that trade help them in 2016?  Nope.  So I don't think that it should be listed among Ryan's high points, esp. if you add the context that he got rid of Hicks who is hitting .301/.346/.508 for Detroit, mostly in AAA and a bit in AA...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I had completely forgotten what big Herrmann supporters you all were!

I openly admit I strongly disliked Chris Herrmann from day one. I also admit my dislike was kinda irrational.

[Kwak]

Certainly people should not infer that Ryan was a hopeless fool--he had ability and tangible good (or very good) results. An article highlighting (some) of the good results is definitely in order. But to quote the article: "These five low-key decisions dating back to the end of last season, all worked out better than anyone would have expected." I respond: low-key decisions are the small stuff. One big decision that is correct can surpass many "low-key" decisions that ended badly--and conversely, one big decision that is wrong can surpass many (more than five!) low-key decisions that ended above expectations. "...better than anyone...[else]". Hopefully Ryan did expect this outcome since he made the decision. The ""anyone elses" might mean little more than fans who post their opinions.

 

Summing up, it's the big decisions that make the difference, not the "low-key" decisions. It was the "lack of success" on the big decisions that ultimately led to Ryan's downfall.

[Hrbek70]

Bottom line is that Herrmann was on his way out, and rightfully so. Ryan got something of actual value for him, which is a win, regardless of what happens going forward.

It's pretty amusing to watch some of the hindsight judgments playing out here, though. I had completely forgotten what big Herrmann supporters you all were!

 

+1

We had Murphy and Hermann couldn't throw out Prince Fielder in a dream. At the time of the trade we were all happy and I still am. I doubt opposing pitchers spend too much time worrying about Herrman when going over the lineup

[ThejacKmp]

 

These kind of statements seem to be getting out ahead of things.  I don't think we can give credit for flipping Abad for a decent return before it actually happens, and while Palka is an interesting prospect, he might have to become more than that for the Twins to win that trade, as Herrmann has finally looked like he could hold his own with the bat in Arizona.  (Perhaps Herrmann was never going to achieve that with the Twins, but that to me suggests a problem with our coaching staff rather than a guy who should have been "on his way out").

 

Also, while the Twins deserve some credit for signing Grossman, it appears that David Murphy deserves an assist for deciding to retire (but not before we lost John Hicks from a catching-starved organization).

 

1.) Chris Hermann = small sample size. He's never done this in the majors or the minors and it's in only 145 at bats. He's never profiled as even a decent backup catcher defensively. I'm ready to call it a win for the Twins even if Palka never pans out. Hermann had no place with the Twins going forward (especially with the JRM, Centeno and Hick deals - no one would have wanted Hermann over any of those guys this last offseason). Trading someone with Hermann's ground-level ceiling for anything decent is a good idea.

 

2.) It's time we stopped bemoaning John Hicks. You can sign a John Hicks caliber player in the offseason any time you want. The Twins have internal options in Centeno, Garver and JRM that are sufficient. Never has a bit player been so mourned as the case of the late John Hicks.

 

3.) Even if they never trade Abad he's been a great boon for this year. I shudder to think how much worse the dregs of the first half would have been without him. And while he hasn't been traded yet, I don't think it's crazy to say the Twins will deal him - he has to be the Twin most likely to be dealt. Even if we don't know the quality of prospect we get for him, something is always better than nothing. Especially when you consider that most people on TD wanted Bastardo/Sipp and we'd owe them $16 million over the next two years. Definitely a TR win.