Article: Rob Antony's Audition

[old nurse]

 

So that's... one example of an organization, one that's not even a major league baseball team, that hired an 'outsider' and failed.

 

And it's interesting that you chose an executive whose most noteworthy and defining trait was not that he came from outside the organization that hired him, but rather that he came from outside the ranks of executives with player personnel experience, and with predictable results.

 

Maybe it would be more compelling, or at least relevant, to list the major league baseball teams that have achieved noteworthy success with a GM who was promoted from an executive spot that he held through over half a decade of averaging more than 90 losses per season.

 

Finding those names may take a good long while, but my guess is that typing them all probably won't.

Kahn was a local example of a miserable fail. The point that sailed past you is that hiring outside is not a sure answer. The Reds hired the assistant GM of a mid market team that was doing well. It didn't work out. They then hired  an experienced GM from a team with a winning tradition, it still hasn't worked.  San Diego hired a bright assistant GM .  3 bad drafts, trades that produced only one prospect it would be hard to say Hoyers time in San Diego was anything special yet some say he should be hired here.  If Antony can in a couple months on the job articulate the strengths and the weakness of the Twins system  and how the fixes will work he might be the best candidate. He certainly had a front row seat as to what went wrong, nor was he in a position to change it.  It would not be certain either way because I don't think anyone here knows what he knows. I know he can articulate the company line, I don't know if he had ideas on how to do things differently.  I have worked with people who could espouse the company line and when they went into management changed the garbage in tolerable. Had one who turned the place into hell. You just don't know.

[alarp33]

Not every hire ever made in professional sports has worked out? I never would've guessed

[jokin]

 

  If Antony can in a couple months on the job articulate the strengths and the weakness of the Twins system and how the fixes will work he might be the best candidate.  You just don't know.

 

I do know that heads will explode if that's the best the Twins' braintrust can come up with. Sure there's always a possibility that Antony might work out, but to suggest that, in the most objective of analyses, that there aren't multiple better, more highly qualified candidates for GM is a major stretch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Whether he is named GM or not, Antony is under contract for 2017, DSP says.

Was TR under contract for 2017 too?  Gardy was definitely under contract after 2014.  I don't really see how Antony being under contract for 2017 is meaningful, assuming that Antony would be owed a far smaller "severance package" than either of those guys.

[LaBombo]

 

Kahn was a local example of a miserable fail. The point that sailed past you is that hiring outside is not a sure answer. The Reds hired the assistant GM of a mid market team that was doing well. It didn't work out. They then hired  an experienced GM from a team with a winning tradition, it still hasn't worked.  San Diego hired a bright assistant GM .  3 bad drafts, trades that produced only one prospect it would be hard to say Hoyers time in San Diego was anything special yet some say he should be hired here.  If Antony can in a couple months on the job articulate the strengths and the weakness of the Twins system  and how the fixes will work he might be the best candidate. He certainly had a front row seat as to what went wrong, nor was he in a position to change it.  It would not be certain either way because I don't think anyone here knows what he knows. I know he can articulate the company line,  ....

It's not that I missed your point. It's that your point is a flawed, straw man argument and that you failed to back it up with relevant examples. And now you've done so again, but at least you switched to bad baseball examples, so that's something.

 

You found two examples of relatively unsuccessful outside hire GMs. And?

 

Given that just based on odds alone, GMs in general are not successful in MLB, what does that prove, especially when I can effortlessly name two recent outside hire GMs that are currently among the more successful in MLB?

 

So my previous question remains unanswered.  How many MLB teams have hired a GM from within who was a part of a run of futility like the ones the Twins have seen since 2010?

 

And if it is in fact a rarity to promote an assistant GM or the like from within an endemic culture of failure, why is Antony the man to break out of that pattern and set a new precedent?

 

The only reason I can imagine would be his ability to bring something new to the table, like... oh, maybe the rigorous application of new analytical tools to player evaluation. Antony's most notable difference from his peers, by contrast, is probably his apparent disinterest in analytics.

 

 

[Rosterman]

Okay, let's keep everyone under contract for 2017.

 

Nolasco

Santana

Hughes

Gibson arbitrate

 

Perkins

Kintzler arbitrate

Abad arbitrate

Milone arbitrate

 

Mauer

Nunez arbitrate

Escobar arbitrate

Plouffe arbitrate

Dozier

Park

 

Look at that. 14 guys WE NEED to keep around because of contracts to go with Anthony, Molitor and whomever.

[old nurse]

 

It's not that I missed your point. It's that your point is a flawed, straw man argument and that you failed to back it up with relevant examples. And now you've done so again, but at least you switched to bad baseball examples, so that's something.

 

You found two examples of relatively unsuccessful outside hire GMs. And?

 

Given that just based on odds alone, GMs in general are not successful in MLB, what does that prove, especially when I can effortlessly name two recent outside hire GMs that are currently among the more successful in MLB?

 

So my previous question remains unanswered.  How many MLB teams have hired a GM from within who was a part of a run of futility like the ones the Twins have seen since 2010?

 

And if it is in fact a rarity to promote an assistant GM or the like from within an endemic culture of failure, why is Antony the man to break out of that pattern and set a new precedent?

 

The only reason I can imagine would be his ability to bring something new to the table, like... oh, maybe the rigorous application of new analytical tools to player evaluation. Antony's most notable difference from his peers, by contrast, is probably his apparent disinterest in analytics.

You still missed the point. Your comment in Antony disinterest  in analytics is also unfounded.

 

Edited July 28, 2016 by old nurse

[old nurse]

 

 

I do know that heads will explode if that's the best the Twins' braintrust can come up with. Sure there's always a possibility that Antony might work out, but to suggest that, in the most objective of analyses, that there aren't multiple better, more highly qualified candidates for GM is a major stretch.

I would doubt that they are not going to get a successful  GM to come here. They could get  a candidate with past failures to come in. Any of the assistant  GMs it then comes down to subjectivity in determining  who is better qualified.  If there is some charming individual out there with a strong player development track record, great. Go get him. Number crunchers as your best candidates, it will be a crapshoot.

[Mike Sixel]

another great outing from Boshers last night.....but there is no room Chargois....

[Vanimal46]

We should all feel pretty good. After 10-ish days of RA taking over as interim, we all have as many completed transactions as he does. 

[jokin]

 

another great outing from Boshers last night.....but there is no room Chargois....

 

We should all feel pretty good. After 10-ish days of RA taking over as interim, we all have as many completed transactions as he does. 

 

Don't you think there's at least a Small Chance that the roster gets a bit of a shake-up by Monday?

[jokin]

Dear Rob-

 

Isn't there anybody on the roster that the Orioles might want to leave town with tonight?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Don't you think there's at least a Small Chance that the roster gets a bit of a shake-up by Monday?

 

Of course I do.....doesn't mean I have to endorse having Chargois in the minors, and three LHP in the bullpen, does it?

 

And, why wait? Why is Duffey here, and not Berrios? Why isn't there room for Chargois?

[jokin]

 

Of course I do.....doesn't mean I have to endorse having Chargois in the minors, and three LHP in the bullpen, does it?

 

And, why wait? Why is Duffey here, and not Berrios? Why isn't there room for Chargois?

 

Because Rob is trying to ease into things, and is totally focused on possible deadline deals? (Probably not a lot of real-time multi-tasking skills...)

[LaBombo]

 

You still missed the point.  Your comment in Antony disinterestin analytics is also unfounded.

First, at no point did I say that hiring outside is "a sure answer", so you're just dead wrong there.

 

Second, you've again failed utterly to explain how two unsuccessful outside hires prove anything, or even why you brought them up.

 

Third, you still haven't even acknowledged that you don't have a SINGLE example of an assistant GM from a failed front office who's succeeded as GM of his team or even been promoted to that team's GM position for that matter.

 

Fourth, what's your source to dispute the multiple interviews with Antony in which he displays a clear lack of knowledge of relevant, widely accepted baseball metrics?

 

Other than that, though, spot on reply.

Edited July 29, 2016 by LaBombo

[old nurse]

 

First, at no point did I say that hiring outside is "a sure answer", so you're just dead wrong there.

 

Second, you've again failed utterly to explain how two unsuccessful outside hires prove anything, or even why you brought them up.

 

Third, you still haven't even acknowledged that you don't have a SINGLE example of an assistant GM from a failed front office who's succeeded as GM of his team or even been promoted to that team's GM position for that matter.

 

Fourth, what's your source to dispute the multiple interviews with Antony in which he displays a clear lack of knowledge of relevant, widely accepted baseball metrics?

 

Other than that, though, spot on reply.

You still missed the point. 

 

As far as Antonyy not understanding metrics, you haven't shown that he does not understand the metrics that Jack Goin presents or works on. It is what have you said lately sort of thing. I know it is a real difficult concept for some here to grasp but even past 30 one still can learn

 

You should know the answer to your question on successful assistant from a failed GM. The team he was an assistant on in the 5 years previous lost over 90 games twice. Had the benefit of strike shortened seasons so as to not lose even more. Pretty famous guy, too. Got promoted to executive vice president recently. Had a book written about him. Movie, too. Similarities to Antony end there

[LaBombo]

 

You still missed the point. 

 

As far as Antonyy not understanding metrics, you haven't shown that he does not understand the metrics that Jack Goin presents or works on. It is what have you said lately sort of thing. I know it is a real difficult concept for some here to grasp but even past 30 one still can learn

 

You should know the answer to your question on successful assistant from a failed GM. The team he was an assistant on in the 5 years previous lost over 90 games twice. Had the benefit of strike shortened seasons so as to not lose even more. Pretty famous guy, too. Got promoted to executive vice president recently. Had a book written about him. Movie, too. Similarities to Antony end there

No. You've still failed to make a point, or even really post anything coherent.

 

Antony didn't know an xFIP from an Orange Whip in 2010, and had nothing but a USAToday counting stat factoid to explain the Twins' valuation of Dozier when discussing his contract extension last season. Feel free to post contrary references, but otherwise I have less than zero interest in your opinion of him, let alone your sarcasm.

 

And then you called McPhail's five year run with a small market team that included a world championship and 90 win season a FAILURE that equates to Ryan's FIVE (since you're counting McPhail's incomplete '94) 90+loss seasons in six years, which is beyond laughable, so we're done here.

Edited July 29, 2016 by LaBombo

[old nurse]

 

 

And then you called McPhail's five year run with a small market team that included a world championship and 90 win season a FAILURE that equates to Ryan's FIVE (since you're counting McPhail's incomplete '94) 90+loss seasons in six years, which is beyond laughable, so we're done here.

Please copy and paste where I said McPhail was a failure as a Twins GM. McPhail did not have success with the Cubs or Orioles. He is a great example of hiring success from outside your company to a higher level doesn't always work. If your comment was your retort to which GM was promoted from assistant GM,  you should know what assistant GM was promoted from a failure, I would have expected you to know that Ryan was never an assistant GM, nor was he  recently promoted,. There to my knowledge was never a book or movie of him.

Sandy Alderson's last 5 years with a team were an abject failure. His replacement was his assistant

Edited July 29, 2016 by old nurse

[Otto von Ballpark]

So as not to distract from Seth's article on the Nunez-Mejia trade, I'll comment on this here.

 

For Rob Antony's first move as the interim GM, I would think this would go down in the "Pro" column for his candidacy for the full-time job.

Absolutely not.  It's a nice move, but the absence of this move was not the problem for the Twins.  Thus, it shouldn't really matter in finding the next head of baseball ops.

 

 

Is there even much evidence that TR wouldn't have made this move?  Yeah, TR has been a fairly conservative trader, but Nunez was a pretty obvious trade candidate compared to past guys TR didn't deal (i.e. Willingham 2012, Perkins, etc.).  And it was a little early but not particularly so (3 games before the deadline) -- I hope TR wouldn't have waited until later than this to start actively looking to deal.

 

Even if we give Antony credit for this as a move that TR wouldn't have necessarily made, again it doesn't matter in relation to the full-time job.  This difference from TR, while nice, isn't particularly meaningful compared to the larger differences we need to be looking for.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, it was a good move, so it has to be a plus in my book.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, it was a good move, so it has to be a plus in my book.

It's not really whether it's a good move or bad move, or plus/minus on his resume, it's about the type of move this is, and its degree of importance in fixing the issues in Twins baseball ops.

 

It's like if I was temporarily put in charge of my office, because we had some long-term under-performance under my old boss.  And I clean out some old file cabinets and arrange the furniture better, maybe I staff an open clerical spot with what looks like a solid employee.  That's great, but it really doesn't address the issues of the long-term under-performance, hence it really shouldn't matter if I am making a case for the permanent job.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's not really whether it's a good move or bad move, or plus/minus on his resume, it's about the type of move this is, and its degree of importance in fixing the issues in Twins baseball ops.

 

It's like if I was temporarily put in charge of my office, because we had some long-term under-performance under my old boss.  And I clean out some old file cabinets and arrange the furniture better, maybe I staff an open clerical spot with what looks like a solid employee.  That's great, but it really doesn't address the issues of the long-term under-performance, hence it really shouldn't matter if I am making a case for the permanent job.

 

Well, it's not like he can do a lot else right now, is it?

 

If you are going to criticize good moves, because they don't fix every problem, no one can win....

 

In no way would this one move change my thoughts on him, but it was a good move, and it should be acknowledged as such. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, it's not like he can do a lot else right now, is it?

 

If you are going to criticize good moves, because they don't fix every problem, no one can win....

 

In no way would this one move change my thoughts on him, but it was a good move, and it should be acknowledged as such. 

I'm not criticizing the move.  I'm on record as fully endorsing the Nunez trade, and giving Antony credit for getting it done (even if I probably over-rated the prospect on first glance).

 

I'm criticizing those who suggest it should matter in Antony's bid for the full time job.  I agree that there's pretty much nothing that Antony can do publicly right now to make his bid for the job --  his case, if he has one, would have to come privately in the form of a thorough and comprehensive plan for re-organization and evaluation throughout the front office and player development systems.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To those that think this trade suggests Antony, as leader, might offer meaningful change from the TR era, and helps his case for the full-time job: does it cancel that out if he has indeed promoted Polanco again to sit on the bench, perhaps behind Danny Santana?

[jimmer]

I'm pretty sure most people here are wanting a GM hired from outside the organization.  I'm not sure I've read anyone argue other-wise.  This trade of Nunez, IMO, was a good move and I'm not going to temper my opinion of it because it gets followed up by the decision to sit a prospect like Polanco on the bench again.

 

Just like this Nunez trade doesn't say to me, 'Hey, maybe we should seriously consider Antony to permanently get the GM job.'

 

If I had to guess, Antony said what he said about Polanco after talking to Molitor, who should have been let go with Ryan.

 

Edited July 29, 2016 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

There wasn't a book about Ryan to my knowledge either, but figured that he must have been mentioned in something and that you were mistaken about Ryan's position, because the more obvious conclusion to your scavenger hunt answer, Billy Beane, would mean...

 

...that you were comparing Rob Antony to Billy Beane.

 

BWAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

 

Setting aside the fact that Alderson's last 5 seasons in Oakland were not even remotely as bad as Ryan's last 5.5 in Minnesota, and that his budget was a fraction of Ryan's available payroll relative to the league, and that Beane is therefore absolutely not an answer to my question about who fits the profile of promotion from a Ryan-esque disaster....

 

...you just compared Rob Antony to Billy Beane.

 

BWAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

 

Guy whose front office played key role in revolutionizing the game of baseball through the use of metrics = guy who has no idea what batting average on balls in play is.

 

Got it. Thanks for clearing that up.

 

And also comparing a guy who may or may not have reached his baseball experiential zenith among Patrick Henry HS's finest, vs. an actual, honest-to-goodness 1st Round MLB draft pick.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator note, tone down the bickering. 

[The Wise One]

Antony as I said elsewhere was an assistant to Ryan , not a clone. Ryan was his mentor. I have learned from more than one teacher what not to do. He has had 2 to learn from as he should have also learned from Smith.

 

I do love the criticism of Antony talking to USA Today.  Newspapers are written for the masses. Any PR depart will know that and keep their message on a simple level.  As to what stats he knows are does not know I would guess that every team has their own stats and measures that they use. St Louis hacked Houston to find out if Luhnow was using  what he learned in St Louis and likely signed a proprietary agreement not to use. Jack seems like a smart man. I would bet he has his own statistics.  Does he have any idea about statistics. No one here ever bothered much with him to talk. . He has been the liaison  between the technical department and  baseball department for 10 years.  It would be reasonable to think he would have learned something. Reason and fans can be a fickle thing here. Descriptive statistics should not be what causes Antony not to get the job.

 

 Nobody has ever mentioned in this thread that when Antony was promoted to Assistant GM bother to look at what his duties were then.

Here from mlb.com's Twins site

 

Rob Antony, a member of the Twins organization since 1988, has been named Assistant General Manager. In Antony's new role he will focus on MLB rules, waivers and the negotiation of player contracts. He will continue to assist longtime Twins Director of Minor Leagues Jim Rantz in providing player evaluation throughout the minor league system.

 

I think Antony was part of the problem unless he was not listened to when there was a problem with player development. No GM for you.

[The Wise One]

Anyway, the others ide to the coin is the other club in town was accused of being a country club and tumbled down. in organization and performance. House was cleaned. 4 years later, the answer to who had a vision was actually a member of the country club. It is hard to know what Antony really knows about baseball, business, or likeability (Beware, Tim Brewster was likeable). When Pohlad made the comment about looking at where things went wrong the answer to what he find will lie in the type of GM he hires. A number crunching starts guy/gal. A minor league operations guy?  What system churns out the most prospects from the middle of the pack drafts and rounds? One of the stats guys on this site should be able to sort and tally from baseball reference. 

[Platoon]

I like the Nunez trade, and while I don't know if Antony talked and talked the Giants into it, or whether the Giants really wanted Nunez. The bottom line is it seemed a no brainer. We sent a position we did not need in the future, for position we do need. As far as impacting Antony's future as a Twins GM, he has been around for years. If they haven't formed a solid opinion as to his viability in that position in that time, a few common sense moves at this time aren't going to make any difference. Antony is sort of like Nunez. As the late, great Denny Green would have said, 'they are who we thought they were!'

Edited July 30, 2016 by Platoon