Article: Rob Antony's Audition

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The evidence is never conclusive in these instances and even if it was you would not be privy to it so no wonder you have not seen it.  Man, why do so many sports fans such a difficult time recognizing they simply don't have access to critical information?

 

People keep saying why would anyone want this job?  Are you kidding me?  For starters, there are only 30 such jobs in the world and it pays a couple million bucks/yr..  If you are a past GM or an aspiring GM, this job is of interest.  They are basically where KC was a few years ago with a little more revenue to work with.  We also have substantial  depth in the farm system that should feed the ML club for several years not to mention a top pick next June.

 

Edit:  I should have also said these jobs generally don't open up when everything with the team is perfect.  Any qualified candidate would expect there will be obstacles to overcome.

 

ok I buy your edit, but how can you be absolutely sure a good candidate would be interested in this job without being privy to critical information yourself?

[Willihammer]

 

Nope.

 

The main problem with this theory is that there's no way to determine whether a trade works or not in the weeks or months after the trade is made.

 

Again, this is not an audition for Rob Antony. It's not his job to lose. He is a known commodity, and the Twins' history suggests that he would simply be given the job if the team thought he was good enough for it. At best, he's working to stay in the organization after whomever is named to be the GM or the POBO or whatever we're calling it these days.

You might remember that after Bill Smith was fired, TR carried the interim label for years until it became apparent that he was never the interim guy at all.

 

I think Reusse is right insofar as the question is more about what would excite the fanbase than it is about finding the best candidate. A splashy trade would accomplish that as much, maybe more, than a splashy outside hire. The Span-Meyer trade as exhibit A. Pretty much everyone thought it was a good move at the time. It would be very hard not to remove the "interim" label if Antony did something similar IMO.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't see the conclusive evidence that most (seemingly) do that they are going outside the organization for the next GM. Plus, who would want the job if they're going to be handcuffed right off the bat with their manager selection (and likely financially, relatively speaking).

 

Also, reports are that more calls have been coming in since Ryan's departure, could actually be a fortuitous scenario that I'm looking forward to watching play out. Maybe we could see some drama at the deadline for once....

I think I am with you on this. I am not sure the requirements that a new GM must roll with Molitor, and that his (or her) activities/spending will need the approval of St. Peter, will encourage any of the really good candidates to pursue this.

[troyhobbs]

 

The evidence is never conclusive in these instances and even if it was you would not be privy to it so no wonder you have not seen it.  Man, why do so many sports fans such a difficult time recognizing they simply don't have access to critical information?

 

People keep saying why would anyone want this job?  Are you kidding me?  For starters, there are only 30 such jobs in the world and it pays a couple million bucks/yr..  If you are a past GM or an aspiring GM, this job is of interest.  They are basically where KC was a few years ago with a little more revenue to work with.  We also have substantial  depth in the farm system that should feed the ML club for several years not to mention a top pick next June.

 

Edit:  I should have also said these jobs generally don't open up when everything with the team is perfect.  Any qualified candidate would expect there will be obstacles to overcome.  

I see the same info as the posters exclaiming it's not an audition and there is no way Antony is a serious candidate. So you could reply your same snarky post to those as well. Comparing the last 30 years of action to the past week of lip service it is my opinion that Antony is the GM, at least for 2017.

 

My comments of no GM wanting the position because they'd have to work for the Pohlads might be off base but if they're a qualified candidate their career is probably headed in a good direction already so they may not be as desperate as some might assume for any GM position. Of course I don't know, it's only speculation which is sorta what this site is meant for fans to enjoy doing.

[beckmt]

Am hoping for a director of baseball operations and a GM under that person, removing them from being under the president. That would let stay for a while until new person became familiar with the organization.

[Major League Ready]

 

ok I buy your edit, but how can you be absolutely sure a good candidate would be interested in this job without being privy to critical information yourself?

Fair point!  I think this medium has a tendency to blur the degree of certainty implied.  You are correct in that I can’t know this in absolute terms.  It’s not a math problem where we can prove it.  This sort of question does not lend itself to an absolute conclusion as is the case with most business issues.

 

On the other hand, the very limited number of available positions implies something that is absolute enough to be called a law (Law of Supply and Demand).  Which is also why the position pays so well.  The GM position in MLB pays quite a bit more than positions with similar responsibility in most corporations.  It’s also something I am very familiar with because I inherited relatively dysfunctional organizations every time I was hired into a similar role.  Problems and challenges are to be expected.  It goes with the territory.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with MLR.....any* GM position is a good GM position.

 

*unless the owner is crazy odd / hands on.....are there any like that in MLB? the Angels? Miami?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think Antony is a serious candidate, but this is the type of thing that can get his attention for one of the other jobs when they come available, or even an assistant job should Antony lose his (which with a new GM is possible).

 

That said, I doubt that assets are frozen.  Pohlad might have more say in it now than what he did, but I suspect his say is "get rid of the expensive ones."  I'd hope that Pohlad defers to the baseball people on the "Trade Abad for player X type deals"

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I agree with MLR.....any* GM position is a good GM position.

 

*unless the owner is crazy odd / hands on.....are there any like that in MLB? the Angels? Miami?

 

Not sure I'd want to be the GM of the Dallas Cowboys but yeah, for the most part they are good roles.   There will be interest.  The real issue is whether the most qualified candidates will be interested.  Hungry ones certainly will be, but qualified ones might be a bit reticent for a few reasons. Ownership can have a play there, as a smart qualified GM candidate will know the ownership scenario is one of the more important pieces. Sure, inheriting a team with a bunch of good MLB ready prospects and  a nice pipeline will look good, but if your owner is insistent on keeping the manager that refuses to play them... well, you'll have lots of future Arcia moments too. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I agree with MLR.....any* GM position is a good GM position.

Concur, but is this a good enough position, right now, for a #2 in an organization like the Cubs to leave for, right now? I guess that's what we're going to find out.

[Rosterman]

Money-wise, two things spring to mind.

 

In the scheme of things, WHY do you still want the same worthless players collecting a salary next year. Especially if there is a smidgen of an opportunity to move them and shed all or some salary, and still get a possible viable player option back in return.

 

Even with waiver-August, if another team will absorb a contract, is it better to part company with said player for less than nothing, or to keep that salary (and possible position_ tied up next season. You should have a pretty good idea of what a player will do for your team (Nolasco, Santana, even Mauer) next season. Now you just decide if you want to pay for that, and if keeping said player will continue to make you a better team in the longrun.

 

The problem with shredding payroll today, and not spending it next year too, is that monies seem not to carry over (like would the Twins go from, say, a $70 million payroll in 2017 to a $180 million payroll in 2019, because they saved money for two years or so.) Somehow, it doesn't work that way. And if us fans force the front office to spend by complaining about the lining-of-the-pockets of ownership, then we get what we deserve, i.e. $178 million spent on a rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Santana who are solid vets, but didn't really bring anything to the team except our sense that ownership was willing to spend money on free agents.

 

Anthony IS auditioning for the job. But then someone has to take his place, too. A General Manager is not the guy who does everything anymore. It is a multiple person job. You have to have a strong overall presence and manage people well. You might also be reporting to a president of baseball operations. What are the different titles that Pohlad is seeing in this media guides: President of On-Field Operation, General Manager, Director of Player Personnel, Minor League Coordinator, Assistant General Manager in charge of contracts, Assistant General Manager of player development, Assistant General Manager in charge of assistant general managers.

 

You look for someone who has a vision (that might agree with ownership) and can manage the different pieces to pull it all together. The actual field manager has gone from a coaching staff of four to upwards of 7 and 8, all doing certain duties that the manager pulls together into one big picture. Minor league staffs have increased from an average of three guys to numerous roving instructors, the people who oversee the entire coaching direction of the team in the minors, and even trainers and strength-and-conditioning coaches at the minor league levels. So many teams do have former players helping out (from Oliva making the rounds, to Carew working on bunts/base-running, to Hrbek showing how to lift a runner off the base, to Tom Kelly and even Gardy making the rounds of the teams and offering advice, via the fieldstaff, to players.)

 

But back to money. What happens in the next days will tell us alot about the Twins. Are they afraid of eating salary? Do they hope to squeeze every dollar paid, and to be paid, out of their current players. What kind of return are they happy with if they do trade. Who advances and to where? Who gets a looksee in September. Who sits and who plays. So many of us will be sad if the Twins hold and the roster is still full of Nolasco, Santana, Plouffe, Suzuki next year. If payroll stays the same. If prospects are shoved aside by players making monies that management feels justified in putting on the field. Already, we go into 2017 knowing we will have Hughes and Perkins on payroll but not necessarily starting the season on the field. We have Joe Mauer not producing and blocking players who MIGHT put up equal numbers at a fraction of the cost. We have players like Suzuki having another career moment. We have solid players eating up salary and questionable if we can do better keeping them or letting them go elsewhere (Dozier, Plouffe).

 

I'm not sure how much a new vision will be taken by management from an outside candidate, how long it would take them to bring in their own structure and work with the ownership to absorb all those longtime employees that can't find work elsewhere, and the whole question of the field staff...and then going forwards with x-amount of dollars ("55% of revenue is what you get to spend" - "Okay JP, then rest assured that people will only come to see what that revenue will buy for the field...you have to be flexible and take some hits and try some things.")T

 

he Twins also need to work harder than ever in the community. They will be fighting the Vikings and their new stadium. They are being blown out of St. Paul by the Saints. They need to figure out a way to get better media presence instead of a game broadcast shoved between music for a new hip audience that is still on the rail about coming to Twins games. they have to keep the dwindling fan base happy. They have to think ways to get the television audience cutting their cable ties back into the fold. TC Bear is great for the kids and that guy works harder than anyone in the organization, but the organization has to work so hard to bring, what Dave St. Peter likes to focus on, the Twins Brand back to the forefront. 

 

Twins Brand. That is the real Total System Failure that shows it goes beyond Terry Ryan and all across the front office and the field staff and the minor league staff. The Brand has suffered bigtime. There is no trust in the future. There is the attempt to squeeze every penny possible out of current assets. There is the fear to gamble in a business that is a gamble, but ultimately increases in value no matter what happens, for some odd reason.

 

Unfortunately, what we are seeing is a waiting and watching game that won't put people into the seats in greater numbers for the rest of the season and might make next season one of the worst ever for attendance at Target Field and also see a dip in on-field excitement if we going into total rebuild years after it should've been done in the first place.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Concur, but is this a good enough position, right now, for a #2 in an organization like the Cubs to leave for, right now? I guess that's what we're going to find out.

 

As opposed to a position that isn't open right now? Why would you wait?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As opposed to a position that isn't open right now? Why would you wait?

 

If you're being setup to fail. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Ryan could see that Pohlad wants new blood, from outside the organization.

 

So, he fell on his sword hoping to give Antony a shot at changing Pohlad's mind. 

 

Ryan is ultimate organization man, and he wants Antony to have the job.

 

That's all this is about. 

 

Kind of alarming that Pohlad would allow a temporary replacement GM make key decisions that could affect the team's future for a very long time.  But, that's the kind of feckless owner he is.

 

I was with you until the last paragraph.

 

Would you have simply hired someone immediately?

Antony knows the game. He will not ruin his future in MLB by making foolish changes and trades.

 

I think having Antony take the reins for a couple of months while they try to find the best possible candidate is the smart business move and the smart baseball move.

[tobi0040]

As opposed to a position that isn't open right now? Why would you wait?

Outside of an unlimited payroll, the next best thing I would expect a GM would want is good, cost controlled young starters.

 

Between AA and AAA, we have Berrios, Jay, Jorge, and Stewart. That has to be somewhat appealing. Santana is a mid level starter and Gibson should be able to be a back end starter. We could be looking at a June 2017 rotation that consists of a few talented arms and outside of Ervin, nobody would be making any money at all.

[alarp33]

 

If you're being setup to fail. 

 

I would say you're being set-up to have a position for life with even a tad bit of success, not a bad situation.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

As opposed to a position that isn't open right now? Why would you wait?

or if you want to stick with your present team for the satisfaction of being part of a World Series winner.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would say you're being set-up to have a position for life with even a tad bit of success, not a bad situation.  

 

Potentially yes, but job security doesn't motivate talented people nearly as much as success.  Don't get me wrong, a 2M/yr salary with job security is nice, but these individuals want to carve out name/career for themselves just as much, and they are already well paid. 

 

My biggest concern for the next GM is how much of our speculation regarding Pohlad is true. If for instance, he won't let the new GM replace Molitor, or if all of those strange budget issues weren't just TR. 

[Mr. Brooks]

(Warning: in the following post, I have quoted my own thoughts of what may have been actual words. These are not quotes you can find elsewhere, just in my brain)

 

So Ryan was dismissed right after the All Star break which is when many trades come to fruition.

 

TR was told a few weeks ago that he's leaving after this season, he sticks around a little while longer and two weeks before the deadline, out of the blue says "Well, if that's the case, I might as well go now!". Just two weeks to deadline!

 

Reusse's reports that its all about PR!

 

My thought: Who did Ryan try to trade that Pohlad said "no" about leading to Terry saying "Well, if that's the case, I might as well go now!" If Ryan was unable to make those big trades we are all hoping for, it makes no difference if Antony is in charge now or after the deadline. If TR had big trades brewing that could still happen if he sticks around, why leave everyone in the lurch?

My guess on the month delay would be that Ryan wanted to eat most of Ervins salary to try to get a really good prospect back and Pohlad said no way am I paying that much for him to pitch somewhere else.

[Mr. Brooks]

Is it possible that Pohlad just decided to freeze all assets and let a new GM start fresh? Not saying this would be very smart, but it's safer than letting Antony make any deals

No, that would be many times WORSE than just about any mistake Antony could make, IMO. The Twins have real assets to trade this year and freezing them would be almost like punting an entire year of a rebuild.

[alarp33]

 

Potentially yes, but job security doesn't motivate talented people nearly as much as success.  Don't get me wrong, a 2M/yr salary with job security is nice, but these individuals want to carve out name/career for themselves just as much, and they are already well paid. 

 

My biggest concern for the next GM is how much of our speculation regarding Pohlad is true. If for instance, he won't let the new GM replace Molitor, or if all of those strange budget issues weren't just TR. 

 

Job security, low pressure environment... and you can look ahead to say 2019 when Mauer, Santana, Nolasco's contracts will all be off the books. Guys who could potentially be All Stars by then just entering arbitration (Buxton, Sano, Kepler), Young cost controlled pitchers (Berrios, Stewart, Jay, Gonsalves, etc), Nick Gordon, Jorge Polanco, etc. 

 

It's not a bad job. As much as I dislike Jim Pohlad, and found his Molitor comments moronic, he does stay out of the way and leave baseball to the baseball people.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

or if you want to stick with your present team for the satisfaction of being part of a World Series winner.

 

The argument being made is that this team isn't a good idea for a good candidate.....you raise a 100% different argument.....

[wsnydes]

 

The argument being made is that this team isn't a good idea for a good candidate.....you raise a 100% different argument.....

Not to mention the fact that even if you take another job and your former team wins a WS, you still had a hand in that.  Your efforts aren't erased from history.

[Dman]

The Minnesota GM position should be pretty attractive.  Young players coming up.  Solid farm system.  Some core players like Kepler, Sano and Buxton just getting started at the MLB level.  A pretty hands off owner.  The only real concern might be payroll limitation.  Seems hard for me to believe even the top guys wouldn't be interested. I mean this isn't an Astros rebuild where you have to start with nothing.  A lot of the pain of building the farm system is already done.  Just have to make smart moves with the assets you have and continue to build the farm like everyone else.  With any luck there are enough pieces already in place you don't have to do much of anything to find some level of success. And once you have a solid core in a couple of years you should have pieces to trade to fill weak spots.  It would be hard to find a sweeter deal IMO. 

[tobi0040]

Potentially yes, but job security doesn't motivate talented people nearly as much as success.  Don't get me wrong, a 2M/yr salary with job security is nice, but these individuals want to carve out name/career for themselves just as much, and they are already well paid. 

 

My biggest concern for the next GM is how much of our speculation regarding Pohlad is true. If for instance, he won't let the new GM replace Molitor, or if all of those strange budget issues weren't just TR.

If you are speaking about the Twins job, I think $2m is quite a bit high. I think Terry was making around $500k and my guess is the new GM does not sniff much more than that. Salary will likely be the biggest issue with us attracting top talent, moreso than weather, roster, etc.

 

Cashman was the highest paid GM at $2m for some time. Now Epstein signed a 5 year, $18m deal and then Friedman signed a huge 5 year, $35m deal. I believe those guys may all have two titles though.

[Rosterman]

 

This is just my opinion and it obviously varies from yours.

But I don’t think the Terry Ryan tree is going to yield any offers for Rob Antony. This organization has had a terrible run here and he was the #2 for quite some time. And our reputation around the league is that of a front office that lags behind the rest of the league on many fronts. You have #2’s and #3’s at about 25 other organizations that would be more sought after than him. In fact, he has never been publicly even rumored elsewhere as a GM.

Could he find a job in another organization as a scout or something? Sure. But if he is relieved of his duties here his next role will almost certainly be a demotion.

Good point. Yes, if anything, he seemed to be groomed for the future Twins job. In the scheme of things, how many people in the Twins organization have moved onto other General Manager or even front office jobs? Krivsky? Gebhard? Is that it? 50+ years!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you are speaking about the Twins job, I think $2m is quite a bit high. I think Terry was making around $500k and my guess is the new GM does not sniff much more than that. Salary will likely be the biggest issue with us attracting top talent, moreso than weather, roster, etc.

Cashman was the highest paid GM at $2m for some time. Now Epstein signed a 5 year, $18m deal and then Friedman signed a huge 5 year, $35m deal. I believe those guys may all have two titles though.

 

I didn't realize GM positions paid that little... regardless, I'm arguing more that a qualified candidate may not be interested if they are setup to fail.

 

Everyone is right in that the job SHOULD be an attractive one...  However, job security is hardly the reason why a talented candidate would be interested in coming here.  They want to be successful. I don't know how much of TR's failure falls on ownership, but the last few weeks have told me that it's probably more than we realize. You'll get a hungry candidate if that's the case, but not necessarily the best one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bingo. Dozier for Meyer 2.0. Maybe Kyle Zimmer, something along those lines, don't you think?

You think if Antony trades Dozier for Kyle Zimmer, he will get the permanent job?

 

I don't get it.  Dozier seems to be a favorite of management and fans, and is productive, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and would enter a rather crowded field of AA SP prospects.  (Also, Zimmer has been hurt much of the year, and is set to undergo thoratic outlet surgery now.)

 

Such a trade would get blasted by media and fans ("they're still cheap", "here we go again with rebuilding..."), and possibly other Twins players too.  And for pretty good reason -- Dozier is productive and earning his salary, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and enters a crowded field of AA level SP prospects.  I think it would more likely hurt Antony's chances (not to mention, it would be helping a division rival for this and future years).

 

I'd guess that Antony would have to get something significant for our lesser assets (Santana, Milone, Abad, etc.) to help his case much, although I'm under no delusions that anyone is that kind of miracle worker.

[twinsnorth49]

I don't care what splashy trade he might end up making, you're not going to pass an audition for GM in only 3 months.

 

It doesn't make much sense.

[Willihammer]

 

You think if Antony trades Dozier for Kyle Zimmer, he will get the permanent job?

 

I don't get it.  Dozier seems to be a favorite of management and fans, and is productive, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and would enter a rather crowded field of AA SP prospects.  (Also, Zimmer has been hurt much of the year, and is set to undergo thoratic outlet surgery now.)

 

Such a trade would get blasted by media and fans ("they're still cheap", "here we go again with rebuilding..."), and possibly other Twins players too.  And for pretty good reason -- Dozier is productive and earning his salary, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and enters a crowded field of AA level SP prospects.  I think it would more likely hurt Antony's chances (not to mention, it would be helping a division rival for this and future years).

 

I'd guess that Antony would have to get something significant for our lesser assets (Santana, Milone, Abad, etc.) to help his case much, although I'm under no delusions that anyone is that kind of miracle worker.

 

I doubt another Fuld-for-Milone or Herrmann for Palka type deal would move the needle for potential ticket buyers. If ticket sales are linked to excitement, than a big trade would help Antony's chances, whether that is Dozier or someone else (there's not many other trade chips). Just as fans considered the 2012 offseason a success when TR traded two starting players including Revere (who was somewhat of a fan favorite too). Almost universally lauded at the time, lots of buzz. The only question in my mind is whether a big trade would generate more excitement than an outside hire of someone like Ben Cherington. Maybe it wouldn't. But it would certainly pressure JP to remove the interim label just as he did after TR made those trades in 2012 IMO. Moves like that give the impression you have a plan and are working swiftly to execute it.