Article: Ryan Dismissal Leaves Many Questions

[Han Joelo]

It almost seems like the most qualified Twins employee for choosing a new GM just got fired.  The caricatured comments about Pohlad, St. Peter, and even Anthony suggest to me their knowledge of baseball is about that of 12 year olds.  Sigh.

 

I've said this before, but as a (former) Miami Dolphins fan, I remember how Huizenga bought the team from the Robbie's who had owned it forever.  Huizenga dumped the mediocre stability and past glory of Shula and Marino, brought in the hot item--Jimmy Johnson, and after that didn't produce a quick championship like what Dallas experienced, it's just been one failed regime after another.

 

Exciting times, I guess.  We'll see.  I'm afraid the second half is now going to really suck, organization wide, as everybody has to be wondering and worrying about the future.

 

 

[wsnydes]

 

Seth, my first thought was here comes a salary dump. In the short term by the trade deadline, followed by additional moves in the off-season to minimize payroll. Do you think I'm overreacting?

Payroll should go down just by virtue of going younger.  I don't think it's really something to be paranoid or upset about, it should be expected.  I would say if that is how you're reacting, that would be overreacting.  

[KirbyDome89]

 

Fact:  The Twins had a better record under Bill Smith (or any other GM) than they did under Ryan.   

 

So are you saying that Antony will lead the Twins in more wins than Ryan?   I am not that sure.  What made Smith a good GM is that he was willing to delegate and listen to baseball people about baseball decisions. And that he had the guts to make those decisions.  What made Smith a bad GM was that he was listening to the wrong people about those baseball decisions (the likes of Gardenhire & Radcliff & Rantz.)

The Twins were in 2 very different places when Ryan and Smith took over so I'm not sure overall record is a fair assessment of their tenure. I believe he was talking about the slew of terrible trades/baseball decisions Smith made during his time as GM. Whether or not he had people in his ear, the final decision was his and he ultimately had to bear responsibility. His time was totally negative, the Twins signed and drafted most of the young talent we're seeing right now under Smith's watch. Acquiring talent wasn't an issue for him, the problem was assessing the value of it and holding onto it. 

[Rosterman]

We will find out if the Twins do have a plan.

 

Maybe they aren't doing a total retool, ala Atlanta Braves. But the number of possible prospects is mind-boggling. What has to be decided is the direction the franchise wishes to take.
 

Looking at the players the Twins overpaid, they are probably seeing that no one is knocking down the door to get players from them. Why trade when the Twins might release. Why get someone expensive when someone equally as good is available at a lower price. Why get someone that is being pushed aside by a Twins prospect.

 

Every single season a team makes a signing mistake. A player gets injured and their career downslides. You are forced to cover a bad contract. The Twins have been hit hard...Ryan getting the blame for spending Pohlad's money in free agency (as we all wanted him to do rather than let them keep it) on a half-dozen failed starters.

 

On the flipside, he didn't keep "our" free agents, with the money Target Field was sending our way...which to me reads that a player shouldn't expect a home town discount anymore. We lost Nathan, Cuddyer, whatever. 

 

I do admire when Ryan picks up those minor league free agents. Problem is, the AAA (and AA) roster is full of more of these guys than necessary, and if you find space for them in the majors, then you have something wrong when the worst of another team's players can find space on your roster. Sure, a percentage will shine...because they like playing in the majors and want to play in the majors. But that doesn't necessarily create a winning team.

 

Right now, we will cry if the Twins trade away the contracts. But we will be getting salary relief. And 2015 was a box-office success for the Twins, this year we have yet to see what the doldrums of August and definitely September will do to the Twins coffers. But any money saved...what happens to it. Will they overspend down the road, still harp at that magic 55% nuber (although you can be assured that they won't be at 55% the next couple of seasons). We hear words from Pohlad that he never prevented Ryan from signing a player, but why did Ryan feel handcuffed to make his money go further with many middle-line players.

 

The team may be a glorious grab for a general manager who wants to do something. but will he get carte blanc with the prospects, no payroll constraints. Does he really have to keep the same field staff next season. Will management look and listen when a guy talks about building towards 2018 and 2019...who is that "remain competitive within the division" mindset still there for 2017 and just as long as butts show up for the seats, the powers-that-be remain happy.

 

And, sad to say, the Twins have to address the Joe Mauer issue. Is he still the face of the franchise? Is he blocking us from playing equally as good players (and cheaper) at first or DH. Is this the field playing salary cog that the Twins have to live with for a couple more years, and then make a decision again to keep him around for another 4-5 years in case he does remain a Hall of Famer or All-Star.

 

Who will be the next great players on the Minnesota Twins? Can they afford to keep them? Will they continue to look towards solid team players who play "The Twins Way" (hummm...Tom Kelly in the GM decisionmaking process). Or will they gamble, take REAL chances. The flurry of past signing endeavors add up to quite a few failures that could've ben one Big success, if played correctly.

 

Two weeks. We find out if the Twins overvalue their players or not. The month of August, we see if anyone cares to pick up salaries, or if the Twins eat a lot of crow.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's a interesting interview, from February 2011, with Rob Antony (by Jesse Lund at Twinkie Town, summary via MLBTR):

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/antony-on-nishioka-hardy-pavano-liriano-more.html

 

"Tsuyoshi Nishioka first popped up on the team's radar after Antony mentioned to his agent that the team was looking to get more athletic on the infield." -- does that sound like Antony had healthy skepticism about Gardy's request?

 

"Hardy was expected to make $5MM+ in 2011 (he eventually signed for $5.85MM), and the team "just decided that we wanted to put that money into other areas." The Twins had conversations with other teams about Hardy, but there were never any real offers. The trade with Baltimore was "by far [their] best opportunity to make a deal." -- does that sound like Antony really understood the value of Hardy as an asset?

 

Now, maybe Antony has learned from those experiences, and the spring of 2014, but the fact that he made these decisions after many years experience in the front office doesn't inspire confidence that they were just simple rookie adjustments that needed to be made.  I suspect that he simply doesn't have the mindset and skill set of an effective MLB GM, which is no shame -- not many people do.  But that concern shouldn't be dismissed out of a sense of loyalty or fairness in our current GM search.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tommy Milone got expensive but I'd still place him in the "well-done" pile as I'm confused why Oakland gave him away. With the way that starting pitching cost has escalated, it isn't until next year that it becomes a no-deal to pay Tommy Milone.

The "no-deal to pay" threshold is a lot lower in Oakland.  Also, that threshold appears to have been met by most teams this year, as no one was interested in claiming Milone and his salary on waivers.  We'll see if it interests anyone at the deadline...

 

(That said, I agree the trade was a solid move for the Twins.  Just probably not due to any special skill on TR's part. Same with Grossman, who was signed as the insurance outfielder after David Murphy suddenly retired. Although I worry that a GM like Smith or Antony would somehow manage to fall behind on these type of "standard GM" moves...)

Edited July 19, 2016 by spycake

[Riverbrian]

Yes Terry Ryan has done a good job finding talent out of the castoff pile but that's all about opportunity.

 

The Twins have simply had more opportunity to give opportunity and I believe that is a major factor in what seems like success.

 

I love that Grossman is getting a chance for Grossmans sake but at the same time... I'm kinda upset that we needed him. Grossman isn't a TR success story no matter how well he plays going forward... Grossman is a symptom of the failure because he is here.

 

On Antony... No idea what kind of GM he would make and Seth is right when he says it isn't fair to judge him because of his relationship to Ryan. However... Ryan is either ignoring good advice or taking bad advice from those under him and that's why it can't be Antony. Way to risky to reach into that barrel of Apples when something is clearly spoiled.

 

Hire from the outside just to be safe.

[d-mac]

 

I think I explained that pretty well... in the non-on-field baseball things. The Twins do a great job in PR, in Marketing, in the stadium itself... all the non-baseball stuff... 

 

That's why I'd be good with someone taking a president of baseball operations job and keep St. Peter doing those things that he does well. 

 

By what, making the gameday experience less about the game and more about the "experience?"

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On Antony... No idea what kind of GM he would make and Seth is right when he says it isn't fair to judge him because of his relationship to Ryan. However... Ryan is either ignoring good advice or taking bad advice from those under him and that's why it can't be Antony. Way to risky to reach into that barrel of Apples when something is clearly spoiled.

This is a decent summation of my posts on Anthony too.  It would be one thing if Antony was a relative newcomer himself, but he's been assistant GM for almost 9 years now.  He's had plenty of opportunity to make his GM case beyond "respected at negotiating contracts".  The fact that he hasn't in any clear way is probably a sign that there isn't much case to be made.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think Pohlad let TR know that he was done at the end of the year and TR said 'screw it, I'm out of here, fire me now'. 

That's how I read it too, and I bet Pohlad is already regretting he did this.

[Blackjack]

 

Not acting out of fear is a terrible way to lead a business (or your life).

I didn't see where I mentioned fear in my post.....  I was pointing out the reality of changing GM's/coaches etc., its a crapshoot.  Only time will tell whether it was the right move. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't see where I mentioned fear in my post.....  I was pointing out the reality of changing GM's/coaches etc., its a crapshoot.  Only time will tell whether it was the right move. 

 

I must have read it wrong.....it seemed, to me, to imply that change was risky and shouldn't be made. Reader error, I guess.

[Blackjack]

 

I must have read it wrong.....it seemed, to me, to imply that change was risky and shouldn't be made. Reader error, I guess.

Lots of guessing and speculation going on here !!!!

 

[Deduno Abides]

I think making general comments on how good Rob Antony would or wouldn't be as GM aren't fair. Yes, he worked for Ryan, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he would do everything exactly like Ryan. He may pick some things that worked well, and he may have other ideas for other things. Guilt by Association is a bad thing.

 

I'm not saying Antony is or isn't the right person, but writing him off because he worked for Terry Ryan isn't right either. 

 

I'm not going to pretend to know who the right person is. I know certain things I would like to see from a candidate. But if Theo Epstein came to the Twins, it doesn't mean they would be a perennial playoff team. Maybe, but not necessarily. 

 

"Proven" or experienced GMs won't guarantee anything, and maybe hiring someone we've never heard of will prove to be the best thing. Who knows?

 

This is exactly why Antony would not be a good pick, regardless of his audition. After all his time, his abilities are unknown? Around the league, assistant GMs, directors of player personnel and scouting directors can point to contributions to team accomplishments and have developed good reputations. Antony, after all this time, has not. What he has apparently touched was not successful. Even assuming he does OK in a few months as an interim, his accomplishments and known abilities would pale in comparison to many external candidates. To then get the job because of familiarity and a decent three months would be a bad message and a failure to get the best person.

[Deduno Abides]

I think I explained that pretty well... in the non-on-field baseball things. The Twins do a great job in PR, in Marketing, in the stadium itself... all the non-baseball stuff...

 

That's why I'd be good with someone taking a president of baseball operations job and keep St. Peter doing those things that he does well.

 

Keep Matt Hoy for internal ops, not St. Peter. St. Peter has been part of creating the current team culture, particularly on the administrative side, which is a large reason they're in this mess. Even the last year of Ruben Amaro, Jr. with the Phillies was way better than this - he made good trades for the future, an actual transition plan was in place before he left, etc. A real team president would have pushed for well-prepared transitions. After all, it shouldn't have come as a surprise that TR might leave during the season. In this unplanned, ad hoc transition, however, it seems that the only thing St. Peter has taken care of is St. Peter, such as by angling to have the next GM report to him.

[Deduno Abides]

Here's a interesting interview, from February 2011, with Rob Antony (by Jesse Lund at Twinkie Town, summary via MLBTR):

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/antony-on-nishioka-hardy-pavano-liriano-more.html

 

"Tsuyoshi Nishioka first popped up on the team's radar after Antony mentioned to his agent that the team was looking to get more athletic on the infield." -- does that sound like Antony had healthy skepticism about Gardy's request?

 

"Hardy was expected to make $5MM+ in 2011 (he eventually signed for $5.85MM), and the team "just decided that we wanted to put that money into other areas." The Twins had conversations with other teams about Hardy, but there were never any real offers. The trade with Baltimore was "by far [their] best opportunity to make a deal." -- does that sound like Antony really understood the value of Hardy as an asset?

 

Now, maybe Antony has learned from those experiences, and the spring of 2014, but the fact that he made these decisions after many years experience in the front office doesn't inspire confidence that they were just simple rookie adjustments that needed to be made.  I suspect that he simply doesn't have the mindset and skill set of an effective MLB GM, which is no shame -- not many people do.  But that concern shouldn't be dismissed out of a sense of loyalty or fairness in our current GM search.

 

The TR staff rarely admitted to mistakes, even after bad outcomes, instead saying they would do the same thing again, and then doing it again, with similar bad outcomes. How does someone learn from mistakes if they don't agree they are mistakes?

[alarp33]

 

I think making general comments on how good Rob Antony would or wouldn't be as GM aren't fair. Yes, he worked for Ryan, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he would do everything exactly like Ryan. He may pick some things that worked well, and he may have other ideas for other things. Guilt by Association is a bad thing.

 

I'm not saying Antony is or isn't the right person, but writing him off because he worked for Terry Ryan isn't right either. 

 

 

Can we agree on this basic premise... Terry Ryan was fired because; 1) his team has been a total failure for the better part of 6 years now.  2) his team/ organization is universally considered woefully behind the times in terms of 21st century Major League Baseball.  3) Lack of innovation, new ideas, etc. has this team falling further and further behind their counterparts in each year that goes by.  

 

Like or Dislike Terry Ryan, I don't think those points are all that much up for debate.  

 

Now tell me how an organization that is so adverse to change, who finally realized those 3 points (amongst other things) and fired Terry Ryan... would be better off hiring the person who has been the #2 to Terry for so long, over practically anyone else from any other organization in baseball.  

 

I will not even go into Rob Antony's baseball knowledge (or lack thereof), he could be the next great General Manager of another MLB franchise 3 years from all for all I know (I highly highly highly doubt this but I'll play along).  

 

There is still ample evidence to suggest he should be no where near the next person in charge of fixing this organization.  

 

And I don't know how any reasonable person can make an argument that THIS organization, that needs so much changing to keep up with the times and catch up to the rest of baseball.. will get that from hiring the guy who has been in the #2 seat all along

 

- Sorry for rambling on, I may have talked in circles.  But to sum it up.  You like Rob Antony personally or are scared of change if you think he deserves the job.  There's literally no other reason

Edited July 19, 2016 by alarp33

[howieramone2]

 

I'm OK with a salary dump simply because the only players I still want on this team come next year don't make much. Plouffe, Santana, Perkins, Nolasco, Mauer, Hughes? Man, if Anthony had some kind of magic potion and was able to lose those last four, even I might be on board with giving him a real shot.

Anyone with 7000+ posts should know some of those contracts are not movable. My concern is those who will help us win in the near future, many of whom are board scapegoats. I would prefer not  hearing next year at this time, our favorite team has lost 90 games 6 of the last 7 years.

[mlhouse]

The need to go outside the organization for the GM is about the most obvious answer to a question out there.  If this were Jeopardy it would be a $100 question.

 

The entire organization needs to be revamped because the incumbents, led by Terry Ryan, are not equipped to rebuild a baseball franchise.  We need a GM and maybe a manager that can work with and develop young players.  I don't know if we have people in the management structure up and down the minors and major leagues that can do that because they have all been ingrained in the very conservative approach that Ryan had.  

 

This team is on a a 58-104 record pace yet we only have one pitcher under the age of 28 in our starting rotation, Of the remaining pitchers, 3 are marginal prospects 25/26  years of age (Rodgers, Mays, Tonkin), two are 27 (Pressley, Ramirez), and two journeymen over the age of 30.  

 

But we leave Berrios, JT Chargois, and Hildenberger in the minor leagues.  

 

HOw much worse can they be?  And the answer to that unasked question is why Terry Ryan is out of a job.

[Mike Sixel]

In reading the BA piece.....

 

the Twins don't have a minor league hitting coordinator? Is that real?

[howieramone2]

 

The need to go outside the organization for the GM is about the most obvious answer to a question out there.  If this were Jeopardy it would be a $100 question.

 

The entire organization needs to be revamped because the incumbents, led by Terry Ryan, are not equipped to rebuild a baseball franchise.  We need a GM and maybe a manager that can work with and develop young players.  I don't know if we have people in the management structure up and down the minors and major leagues that can do that because they have all been ingrained in the very conservative approach that Ryan had.  

 

This team is on a a 58-104 record pace yet we only have one pitcher under the age of 28 in our starting rotation, Of the remaining pitchers, 3 are marginal prospects 25/26  years of age (Rodgers, Mays, Tonkin), two are 27 (Pressley, Ramirez), and two journeymen over the age of 30.  

 

But we leave Berrios, JT Chargois, and Hildenberger in the minor leagues.  

 

HOw much worse can they be?  And the answer to that unasked question is why Terry Ryan is out of a job.

I don't understand your fascination with age. All of them look just about average.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Anyone with 7000+ posts should know some of those contracts are not movable. My concern is those who will help us win in the near future, many of whom are board scapegoats. I would prefer not  hearing next year at this time, our favorite team has lost 90 games 6 of the last 7 years.

 

You were among those most vocal about the "next year" stuff for quite some time.  At some point, you have to accept how things are likely to play out and this team would have to improve by 10-15 games next year just to be .500, much less a playoff team.  This team, at best, should be hoping to go back to being a .500 team on the rise next year. 

 

And all those unmovable contracts are Ryan's fault.  Would it surprise anyone if he refused to concede that they were mistakes and the team was further away than he thought?  It'd match his rhetoric all year long and he's never been one to admit/reverse a mistake until it's well past the point of harming the team.

 

Hopefully we will be dumping some of these guys, this 25 man roster needs serious turnover, regardless of who oversees it happening.

[nicksaviking]

I think I explained that pretty well... in the non-on-field baseball things. The Twins do a great job in PR, in Marketing, in the stadium itself... all the non-baseball stuff...

 

That's why I'd be good with someone taking a president of baseball operations job and keep St. Peter doing those things that he does well.

 

I agree. St Peter is just fine for PR, promotions, community outreach etc.

 

I still don't feel comfortable with him heavily involved in this GM call. If I'm Pohlad and I'm serious about getting the best candidate, I call the commissioner and the owners of the high revenue clubs and tell them that if they don't want me being a revenue sharing sieve, they need to lend a layman like me a hand.

 

If there is no search firm, and the call all falls to St Peter and Pohlad, they'll deserve all the criticism about how the decision was about money, not winning, that will certainly ensue.

 

Even if it's not true.

[alskntwnsfn]

Fun fact... the Twins have 19 people in their "front office" that focus somewhat on player development/evaluation, outside of coaches. Probably even less that actually do "front office" type work.

 

The Rays appear to have at least 37. The Pirates have about as many. Every team I looked up appear to have far more than the Twins. Not shocking stuff, but still I was kind of surprised to see how much personnel other teams were putting toward their player development/evaluation. The Cubs have several people who work on a "mental skills program". 

[ThejacKmp]

The "no-deal to pay" threshold is a lot lower in Oakland.  Also, that threshold appears to have been met by most teams this year, as no one was interested in claiming Milone and his salary on waivers.  We'll see if it interests anyone at the deadline...

 

(That said, I agree the trade was a solid move for the Twins.  Just probably not due to any special skill on TR's part. Same with Grossman, who was signed as the insurance outfielder after David Murphy suddenly retired. Although I worry that a GM like Smith or Antony would somehow manage to fall behind on these type of "standard GM" moves...)

He hasn't had a good enough year to get anything at the deadline. At this point he's just depth. But it wasn't crazy to think he could have a good/lucky start to the season and be moved if some twins minor league guys seemed ready. Didn't work out but the concept want awful.

 

Hopefully those moves are based on scouting structures that go beyond one gm - they have guys they like in a list somewhere.

[tobi0040]

Here's a interesting interview, from February 2011, with Rob Antony (by Jesse Lund at Twinkie Town, summary via MLBTR):

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/antony-on-nishioka-hardy-pavano-liriano-more.html

 

"Tsuyoshi Nishioka first popped up on the team's radar after Antony mentioned to his agent that the team was looking to get more athletic on the infield." -- does that sound like Antony had healthy skepticism about Gardy's request?

 

"Hardy was expected to make $5MM+ in 2011 (he eventually signed for $5.85MM), and the team "just decided that we wanted to put that money into other areas." The Twins had conversations with other teams about Hardy, but there were never any real offers. The trade with Baltimore was "by far [their] best opportunity to make a deal." -- does that sound like Antony really understood the value of Hardy as an asset?

 

Now, maybe Antony has learned from those experiences, and the spring of 2014, but the fact that he made these decisions after many years experience in the front office doesn't inspire confidence that they were just simple rookie adjustments that needed to be made.  I suspect that he simply doesn't have the mindset and skill set of an effective MLB GM, which is no shame -- not many people do.  But that concern shouldn't be dismissed out of a sense of loyalty or fairness in our current GM search.

You have to love an emphasis on athleticism. It brings up so many questions. What is athleticism? How is it measured and how does that correlate to MLB success? And why does a 6-1 200 pound guy capable of both hitting 30 HR a year and playing SS not qualify as athletic?

 

Are Nelson Cruz or Miguel Cabrera considered athletic? Bartolo Colon? David Wells? CC Sabathia? I bet Ben Revere is considered really athletic though.

[howieramone2]

 

You were among those most vocal about the "next year" stuff for quite some time.  At some point, you have to accept how things are likely to play out and this team would have to improve by 10-15 games next year just to be .500, much less a playoff team.  This team, at best, should be hoping to go back to being a .500 team on the rise next year. 

 

And all those unmovable contracts are Ryan's fault.  Would it surprise anyone if he refused to concede that they were mistakes and the team was further away than he thought?  It'd match his rhetoric all year long and he's never been one to admit/reverse a mistake until it's well past the point of harming the team.

 

Hopefully we will be dumping some of these guys, this 25 man roster needs serious turnover, regardless of who oversees it happening.

TR didn't do Mauer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you were one of the ones screaming the loudest for free agents in 2013.

 

In August of 2013, I coined the phrase, the parade starts in 2015. I missed by 3 games. I predicted 90-72 this season. In 2010 or 2011, BA had an extensive article, by their standards, on the process of rebuilding small/mid-market teams. They said it would take a minimum of 5 years. 2017 is year 6. If we don't contend next year, I'll join The Dark Side.

[TheLeviathan]

 

TR didn't do Mauer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you were one of the ones screaming the loudest for free agents in 2013.

 

In August of 2013, I coined the phrase, the parade starts in 2015. I missed by 3 games. I predicted 90-72 this season. In 2010 or 2011, BA had an extensive article, by their standards, on the process of rebuilding small/mid-market teams. They said it would take a minimum of 5 years. 2017 is year 6. If we don't contend next year, I'll join The Dark Side.

 

Absolutely, I wanted us to spend money.  I've also never been shy to share what I would do, sometimes it's been horribly wrong.  Last offseason I was pretty much batting 1.000, but that's rare.  Either way, I'm not paid to get these decisions right.  Ryan is.  And he's been getting them wrong for awhile now.

 

You, under the guise of optimism, were setting unfair expectations for our prospects.  You can search my posts, you'll never find me advocating rushing prospects or predicting MVP awards for second year players, or any of that.  I preach patience because that's usually most fair.  

 

But there need be no Light Side/Dark Side.  I'd prefer just being fair - that means when it's time to criticize, you do.  When it's time to be reasonable/understanding - you do.