Article: Ryan Dismissal Leaves Many Questions

[Brock Beauchamp]

I understand why they did it but if they wanted to give a legit candidate an opportunity to be GM for 3-4 months, why not go with Radcliff?

 

I'm not a fan of the organization hiring anyone from within but if they're going to hire a person from 1 Twins Way, Radcliff is the least offensive option available.

[tobi0040]

And I am OK with that. Dave St. Peter runs the show and does his job well, but he readily admits that he doesn't deal much with the baseball side of things. Jim Pohlad is fine when he stays out of the way, and I"m OK with that from an owner. I don't necessarily want them budding in on things. But obviously these two are the ones that need to hire a good candidate which is why they need to get outside help. In my opinion...

I guess I don't understand how a guy that doesn't deal much with the baseball side of things has a say in who the GM will be. That is basically the biggest baseball side of things decision, no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When Antony’s name comes up, fans like to bring up the spring training when Antony took over the reigns when Ryan was working through his cancer treatments and recovery. They like to bring up the decision to keep Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett on the Opening Day roster. First, that’s a very small sample size.

Seth, you're ignoring the Bill Smith era here.  Antony likely had more power/influence from October 2007 to November 2011 as the #2 in command under admitted "administrator" type GM Smith than he did in the spring of 2014 in place of TR.  And there is evidence that Antony contributed to major blunders (the costly acquisition of Delmon Young and Antony's public comments on the predictive power of RBI, for example), or at the very least, failed to see and communicate the obvious problems in moves driven by others (the Gardenhire-led Hardy-for-Hoey swap, for example).

 

I view that as Antony's chief negative in terms of gauging his ability to take over the top spot, and his limited spring 2014 performance is simply confirmation of the earlier exposed issues (chiefly, allowing Gardy to roster Bartlett against all logic and reason).

 

 

All other reports indicate that Antony has done a nice job as Ryan’s assistant GM. He is well respected among players and scouts for his negotiations in arbitration and free agencies. He’s being given a lot of credit, by Eduardo Nunez, for bringing him to the Twins. And yes, he has been involved in the current ‘regime,’ but that doesn’t mean that things would be exactly the same under Antony’s leadership. Maybe they would be, but my assumption is that Antony would be willing to do some things differently. In general, I just don’t like the idea that it has to be someone from outside the organization.

 

Also, the fact that Antony is respected in contract negotiations is nice, but that's the work of an assistant GM.  As Bill Smith demonstrated, it is largely immaterial to his ability to be an effective GM.  Sure, Antony might finally demonstrate previously unseen dynamic, aggressive, original ideas about talent procurement, roster construction, and front office organization, just like Juan Centeno may begin hitting HR at the rate of 1 per week.  But evidence overwhelmingly suggests that neither is likely the case, and Centeno will continue to perform like a backup catcher, and Antony will continue to perform like an administrative-minded assistant GM.  To deny that and say "anything's possible!" with no evidence doesn't feel like a substantive point.

[nicksaviking]

Seth, my first thought was here comes a salary dump. In the short term by the trade deadline, followed by additional moves in the off-season to minimize payroll. Do you think I'm overreacting?

I'm OK with a salary dump simply because the only players I still want on this team come next year don't make much. Plouffe, Santana, Perkins, Nolasco, Mauer, Hughes? Man, if Anthony had some kind of magic potion and was able to lose those last four, even I might be on board with giving him a real shot.

[nicksaviking]

I understand why they did it but if they wanted to give a legit candidate an opportunity to be GM for 3-4 months, why not go with Radcliff?

 

I'm not a fan of the organization hiring anyone from within but if they're going to hire a person from 1 Twins Way, Radcliff is the least offensive option available.

I really have no clue what Krivsky does for this team, but he's been a GM before, I would have preferred him over Anthony as well.

[Mike Sixel]

People fear a salary dump?

 

Mauer, E San, Nolasco, Hughes, Plouffe, Dozier, Perkins, Dozier.....

 

who on that last would be bad to get rid of?

[Thrylos]

 

 Dave St. Peter runs the show and does his job well

 

Based on what?  Twins wins?  Bottoms on the seats?

 

Because if his performance metric is to get people to use his "brand", he has been failing, really... 

[Thrylos]

 

People fear a salary dump?

 

Mauer, E San, Nolasco, Hughes, Plouffe, Dozier, Perkins, Dozier.....

 

who on that last would be bad to get rid of?

 

The second Dozier

 

You can add a few names to the list as well...

Edited July 19, 2016 by Thrylos

[ThejacKmp]

 

It shouldn't be hard to acquire young talent when you have a top 5 pick every year and practically every attempt TR made to supplement that talent went bad. I think it's all PR about going outside the organization for the next GM and will be genuinely shocked if Antony isn't the GM in 2017.

 

Your top 5 thing makes no sense:

 

- Few of the Twins best prospects in the high minors/majors were drafted in the Top 5. Berrios was picked late 1st, Rosario/Gonsalves were picked in the 4th and Kepler/Sano/Jorge/Polanco/Thorpe were astute international signings. Yes the Twins have Buxton but to say that the Twins prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks is naïve.
- And TR should get credit for the Top 5 picks he’s made. Picking in the MLB Top 5 isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where most guys turn out to be at least rotation players. Baseball is more of a crapshoot, even in the top 5. Less than half of top 5 picks become successful players. The Twins should actually get credit for some very astute drafting in the top 5 or 6 as Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart and Buxton all are still legitimate prospects who look to play key roles in the future of the Twins. That isn’t a given and TR and the Twins should get some props for that.

 

I also think it’s incorrect to say that “practically every attempt TR made to supplement [Top 5] talent went bad.” Terry Ryan has also done many good things acquiring talent in other ways:

 

- His trades for May and Meyer were good trades. The Twins got legitimate prospects while trading from a place of depth (Revere especially - replacement level player). Just because Meyer has been hurt and May has stagnated a bit this year doesn’t make the value gained in those trades any less. Both players are still part of the Twins plans for the future and besides, you can’t judge a move on how much WAR the player gets. Injuries happen and there are no givens – both of those trades were good value and were smart moves I would do again.
- Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him) is actually pretty amazing at getting value for useless players. TR got Daniel Palka for Chris Hermann (amazing to get anything!), Tommy Milone for Sam Fuld and Nunez for Butera (via Miguel Sulbaran). That’s not super sexy but being able to get something for basically nothing is really pivotal for building a 25 man roster. The Twins have to hope that Anthony is as good getting useful parts for players with limited upside like Plouffe and Suzuki.
- TR’s done a pretty good job not losing players via the Rule 5, which is harder than it seems when you have lots of young unproven players. TD has slammed him for this but Jones came back from the Brewers and Sean Gilmartin has pretty conclusively shown that last year was a fluke. TR even picked up Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham from the Rule 5 – Pressly at least seems like a good bullpen option for the Twins to come.
- Robbie Grossman was a nice pickup who might have some value either as small trade bait or as a 4th OF in the future.

 

This isn’t to say that you couldn’t highlight mistakes TR has made but it’s really unfair to say that (A.) anyone can pick well in the top 5, (B.) that the Twins enviable prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks and (C.) that TR was unable to add talent outside of high draft picks.

 

It is likely time for TR to go (though if the Pohldad’s don’t stop being cheapskates I don’t see how the next guy is going to do better than TR – not sure why that isn’t the story) but I think we should give credit where credit is due: TR has done an admirable job restocking the Twins minor league system after it bottomed out in the early 2010s. The Twins are a year or two away from contention but the fact that the future looks that rosy is a testament to TR.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The second Dozier

 

You can add a few names to the list as well...

 

I'd rather have two Dozier's than 1 of some guys, but oooops!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, my first thought was here comes a salary dump. In the short term by the trade deadline, followed by additional moves in the off-season to minimize payroll. Do you think I'm overreacting?

 

I don't think a salary dump has anything to do with this decision. And I don't think letting Ryan go would hurt the Twins in terms of payroll. Ryan kept it down. 

[alarp33]

 

Your top 5 thing makes no sense:

 

- Few of the Twins best prospects in the high minors/majors were drafted in the Top 5. Berrios was picked late 1st, Rosario/Gonsalves were picked in the 4th and Kepler/Sano/Jorge/Polanco/Thorpe were astute international signings. Yes the Twins have Buxton but to say that the Twins prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks is naïve.
- And TR should get credit for the Top 5 picks he’s made. Picking in the MLB Top 5 isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where most guys turn out to be at least rotation players. Baseball is more of a crapshoot, even in the top 5. Less than half of top 5 picks become successful players. The Twins should actually get credit for some very astute drafting in the top 5 or 6 as Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart and Buxton all are still legitimate prospects who look to play key roles in the future of the Twins. That isn’t a given and TR and the Twins should get some props for that.

 

 

 

You do realize that Kepler, Sano, Jorge and Polanco were all signed by Bill Smith, right? 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Based on what?  Twins wins?  Bottoms on the seats?

 

Because if his performance metric is to get people to use his "brand", he has been failing, really... 

 

I think I explained that pretty well... in the non-on-field baseball things. The Twins do a great job in PR, in Marketing, in the stadium itself... all the non-baseball stuff... 

 

That's why I'd be good with someone taking a president of baseball operations job and keep St. Peter doing those things that he does well. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really have no clue what Krivsky does for this team, but he's been a GM before, I would have preferred him over Anthony as well.

Just to show how much I don't know what Krivsky does for the Twins, I completely forgot he was with the team even though I was reminded of it just yesterday.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand why they did it but if they wanted to give a legit candidate an opportunity to be GM for 3-4 months, why not go with Radcliff?

 

I'm not a fan of the organization hiring anyone from within but if they're going to hire a person from 1 Twins Way, Radcliff is the least offensive option available.

Interesting idea.  5 years ago, MLBTR had a similar idea:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/gm-candidate-mike-radcliff.html

 

Of course, shortly thereafter the Orioles inquired about interviewing Radcliff for their GM opening, and the Twins declined (rumor suggesting the Radcliff simply wasn't interested):

 

http://www.twincities.com/2011/11/03/twins-deny-orioles-access-to-radcliff-report-says/

[Thrylos]

 

 

I hope everyone involved are smart enough to bring external help and guys like Radcliff/Johnson into the conversation. While Radcliff and Johnson may have ulterior motives (keeping their jobs), they've both forgotten more about baseball than DSP or Pohlad will ever know.

 

Johnson was responsible for the Twins amateur drafting and scouting.  Here are the people he drafted in the first 2 rounds of the draft in all Twins drafts 5 year and older (the expectation here is that you need about 5 years to develop someone)  :

 

Hicks, Gutteriez, Shooter Hunt, Ladendorf, Gibson, Bashore, Bullock, Wimmers, Goodrum, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Boer

 

Do you trust him to make decisions for the club?

 

Radcliff has been responsible for scouting players who come as free agents with the Twins

(the list here is longer and started with Nishioka and ends with Park, with a few Nolascos, Correias, Pelfrys thrown in.)

 

Do you trust him to make decisions for the club?

 

I don't...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Johnson was responsible for the Twins amateur drafting and scouting.  Here are the people he drafted in the first 2 rounds of the draft in all Twins drafts 5 year and older (the expectation here is that you need about 5 years to develop someone)  :

 

Hicks, Gutteriez, Shooter Hunt, Ladendorf, Gibson, Bashore, Bullock, Wimmers, Goodrum, Michael, Harrison, Boyd, Boer

 

Do you trust him to make decisions for the club?

 

Radcliff has been responsible for scouting players who come as free agents with the Twins

(the list here is longer and started with Nishioka and ends with Park, with a few Nolascos, Correias, Pelfrys thrown in.)

 

Do you trust him to make decisions for the club?

 

I don't...

When it comes to hiring someone into a baseball-first position, I trust them a hell of a lot more than DSP or Pohlad.

[DaveW]

 

When it comes to hiring someone into a baseball-first position, I trust them a hell of a lot more than DSP or Pohlad.

That's basically the same argument as:

 Well X would be better than Sidney Ponson

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

- Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him) is actually pretty amazing at getting value for useless players. TR got Daniel Palka for Chris Hermann (amazing to get anything!), Tommy Milone for Sam Fuld and Nunez for Butera (via Miguel Sulbaran). That’s not super sexy but being able to get something for basically nothing is really pivotal for building a 25 man roster. The Twins have to hope that Anthony is as good getting useful parts for players with limited upside like Plouffe and Suzuki.

I won't enter your larger debate, but most every team finds a few interesting guys like this occasionally.  Usually it's more about the other team needing to unload the player, like the DFA'd Eduardo Nunez or the soon-to-be-expensive Tommy Milone, and less about any "amazing" skill on the part of the acquiring team.

[howieramone2]

 

Your top 5 thing makes no sense:

 

- Few of the Twins best prospects in the high minors/majors were drafted in the Top 5. Berrios was picked late 1st, Rosario/Gonsalves were picked in the 4th and Kepler/Sano/Jorge/Polanco/Thorpe were astute international signings. Yes the Twins have Buxton but to say that the Twins prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks is naïve.
- And TR should get credit for the Top 5 picks he’s made. Picking in the MLB Top 5 isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where most guys turn out to be at least rotation players. Baseball is more of a crapshoot, even in the top 5. Less than half of top 5 picks become successful players. The Twins should actually get credit for some very astute drafting in the top 5 or 6 as Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart and Buxton all are still legitimate prospects who look to play key roles in the future of the Twins. That isn’t a given and TR and the Twins should get some props for that.

 

I also think it’s incorrect to say that “practically every attempt TR made to supplement [Top 5] talent went bad.” Terry Ryan has also done many good things acquiring talent in other ways:

 

- His trades for May and Meyer were good trades. The Twins got legitimate prospects while trading from a place of depth (Revere especially - replacement level player). Just because Meyer has been hurt and May has stagnated a bit this year doesn’t make the value gained in those trades any less. Both players are still part of the Twins plans for the future and besides, you can’t judge a move on how much WAR the player gets. Injuries happen and there are no givens – both of those trades were good value and were smart moves I would do again.
- Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him) is actually pretty amazing at getting value for useless players. TR got Daniel Palka for Chris Hermann (amazing to get anything!), Tommy Milone for Sam Fuld and Nunez for Butera (via Miguel Sulbaran). That’s not super sexy but being able to get something for basically nothing is really pivotal for building a 25 man roster. The Twins have to hope that Anthony is as good getting useful parts for players with limited upside like Plouffe and Suzuki.
- TR’s done a pretty good job not losing players via the Rule 5, which is harder than it seems when you have lots of young unproven players. TD has slammed him for this but Jones came back from the Brewers and Sean Gilmartin has pretty conclusively shown that last year was a fluke. TR even picked up Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham from the Rule 5 – Pressly at least seems like a good bullpen option for the Twins to come.
- Robbie Grossman was a nice pickup who might have some value either as small trade bait or as a 4th OF in the future.

 

This isn’t to say that you couldn’t highlight mistakes TR has made but it’s really unfair to say that (A.) anyone can pick well in the top 5, (B.) that the Twins enviable prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks and (C.) that TR was unable to add talent outside of high draft picks.

 

It is likely time for TR to go (though if the Pohldad’s don’t stop being cheapskates I don’t see how the next guy is going to do better than TR – not sure why that isn’t the story) but I think we should give credit where credit is due: TR has done an admirable job restocking the Twins minor league system after it bottomed out in the early 2010s. The Twins are a year or two away from contention but the fact that the future looks that rosy is a testament to TR.

Bingo!

[Blackjack]

 

I think you are spot on Seth about why TR resigned when he did. To give Antony an audition.

I think Pohlad let TR know that he was done at the end of the year and TR said 'screw it, I'm out of here, fire me now'. 

 

Think about it, motivation is the key to most people's success, would you want to be TR and work 20 hour days leading up to the trade deadline, when you know that you're gone in October??

 

Pohlad should have just kept his mouth shut until October and then let TR know it was time to go. That would have been the smart and classy way to go. Plus you'd have the ex-scout making trades at the deadline instead of a front office wonk.

[Blackjack]

One more thought. Be careful what you wish for, as in TR being fired.

 

How many YEARS and coaches and GM's and wasted first round draft picks has it taken for the Timberwolves to get to this point?  Until Flip took over they were in a continual spiral, up and down, mostly down.  Then he died....

 

Finding a new GM that will turn the Twins around is going to be  a crap shoot.

[howieramone2]

 

You do realize that Kepler, Sano, Jorge and Polanco were all signed by Bill Smith, right? 

You do realize they were teenagers when TR took over, right? When the new Angel GM took over he inherited Trout and Pujols. When the new Tiger GM took over he inherited Miggy and Verlander. The new Seattle GM inherited Cano. Who got the short end of the stick?

Edited July 19, 2016 by howieramone2

[alarp33]

 

You do realize they were teenagers when TR took over, right? When the new Angel GM took over he inherited Trout and Pujols. When the new Tiger GM took over he inherited Miggy and Verlander. Who got the short end of the stick?

 

I don't understand your point but that is not new.  My response was directly related to the poster arguing that the system was rebuilt by Ryan not only because they picked top 6 every year.  The farm system was rebuilt nearly solely on Bill Smith international signings and top 6 picks, evidenced by the top prospects nearly all fitting into one of those categories

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's basically the same argument as:

 Well X would be better than Sidney Ponson

No, it's not. Someone from the Twins has to be involved with the hiring of a baseball operations manager. The actual baseball guys should weigh in on the subject.

 

That doesn't mean you listen to everything they say and you cross-examine their choices with outside consultants but they're the people who actually understand the game.

[Mike Sixel]

 

One more thought. Be careful what you wish for, as in TR being fired.

 

How many YEARS and coaches and GM's and wasted first round draft picks has it taken for the Timberwolves to get to this point?  Until Flip took over they were in a continual spiral, up and down, mostly down.  Then he died....

 

Finding a new GM that will turn the Twins around is going to be  a crap shoot.

 

Not acting out of fear is a terrible way to lead a business (or your life).

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, it's not. Someone from the Twins has to be involved with the hiring of a baseball operations manager. The actual baseball guys should weigh in on the subject.

 

That doesn't mean you listen to everything they say and you cross-examine their choices with outside consultants but they're the people who actually understand the game.

 

I'd like this, but your sw won't let me....

[ThejacKmp]

 

You do realize that Kepler, Sano, Jorge and Polanco were all signed by Bill Smith, right? 

 

Yeah, that's why I use the TR/Twins throughout. I also think it's impossible to think of the Bill Smith era without including TR. He was a senior advisor involved in the decision-making process and the guy making the final call was his protege. I think it's fair to give TR some credit/responsibility for the Smith era.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I won't enter your larger debate, but most every team finds a few interesting guys like this occasionally.  Usually it's more about the other team needing to unload the player, like the DFA'd Eduardo Nunez or the soon-to-be-expensive Tommy Milone, and less about any "amazing" skill on the part of the acquiring team.

 

Agreed. I'm not sitting here saying that TR should still be there or is a genius. Just saying that it's naïve to say that TR wasn't skilled at finding talent outside of the draft. Every GM does some of it and TR is no exception.

 

To those points:

 

Tommy Milone got expensive but I'd still place him in the "well-done" pile as I'm confused why Oakland gave him away. With the way that starting pitching cost has escalated, it isn't until next year that it becomes a no-deal to pay Tommy Milone. He hasn't worked out too well this year but $4.5 million is a pretty cheap price to pay for back of the rotation left-handed depth. If he'd had a better start (and the Twins had better options) he could've been flipped for a minor prospect too. Not saying Tommy had a bright future but he was nice depth at a cheap price.

 

Eduardo Nunez is more interesting but with the Twins looking to potentially flip him for something interesting at the deadline, he could turn out to be a nice little move.

[troyhobbs]

 

Your top 5 thing makes no sense:

 

- Few of the Twins best prospects in the high minors/majors were drafted in the Top 5. Berrios was picked late 1st, Rosario/Gonsalves were picked in the 4th and Kepler/Sano/Jorge/Polanco/Thorpe were astute international signings. Yes the Twins have Buxton but to say that the Twins prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks is naïve.
- And TR should get credit for the Top 5 picks he’s made. Picking in the MLB Top 5 isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where most guys turn out to be at least rotation players. Baseball is more of a crapshoot, even in the top 5. Less than half of top 5 picks become successful players. The Twins should actually get credit for some very astute drafting in the top 5 or 6 as Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart and Buxton all are still legitimate prospects who look to play key roles in the future of the Twins. That isn’t a given and TR and the Twins should get some props for that.

 

I also think it’s incorrect to say that “practically every attempt TR made to supplement [Top 5] talent went bad.” Terry Ryan has also done many good things acquiring talent in other ways:

 

- His trades for May and Meyer were good trades. The Twins got legitimate prospects while trading from a place of depth (Revere especially - replacement level player). Just because Meyer has been hurt and May has stagnated a bit this year doesn’t make the value gained in those trades any less. Both players are still part of the Twins plans for the future and besides, you can’t judge a move on how much WAR the player gets. Injuries happen and there are no givens – both of those trades were good value and were smart moves I would do again.
- Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him) is actually pretty amazing at getting value for useless players. TR got Daniel Palka for Chris Hermann (amazing to get anything!), Tommy Milone for Sam Fuld and Nunez for Butera (via Miguel Sulbaran). That’s not super sexy but being able to get something for basically nothing is really pivotal for building a 25 man roster. The Twins have to hope that Anthony is as good getting useful parts for players with limited upside like Plouffe and Suzuki.
- TR’s done a pretty good job not losing players via the Rule 5, which is harder than it seems when you have lots of young unproven players. TD has slammed him for this but Jones came back from the Brewers and Sean Gilmartin has pretty conclusively shown that last year was a fluke. TR even picked up Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham from the Rule 5 – Pressly at least seems like a good bullpen option for the Twins to come.
- Robbie Grossman was a nice pickup who might have some value either as small trade bait or as a 4th OF in the future.

 

This isn’t to say that you couldn’t highlight mistakes TR has made but it’s really unfair to say that (A.) anyone can pick well in the top 5, (B.) that the Twins enviable prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks and (C.) that TR was unable to add talent outside of high draft picks.

 

It is likely time for TR to go (though if the Pohldad’s don’t stop being cheapskates I don’t see how the next guy is going to do better than TR – not sure why that isn’t the story) but I think we should give credit where credit is due: TR has done an admirable job restocking the Twins minor league system after it bottomed out in the early 2010s. The Twins are a year or two away from contention but the fact that the future looks that rosy is a testament to TR.

That was a long post so I didn't read it all but didn't say his best 5 moves were top 5 picks just that it should be easy to find talented kids early in the draft. And who cares how good these kids perform in the minors if they can't play in the bigs? Because unless they can, they're nothing. Buxton, for one, is actually looking like a pretty bad pick. 300 at bats in the bigs and he's flirting w/ the Mendoza line. Saying May and Meyer were good trades is a stretch.