Article: Commitment Issues

[Mike Sixel]

 

The question you have to answer before asking why they did not attempt such a trade is should they have been in the Price/Hamels market?  When you say “they   Thompson is a top 50 SP prospect.  Williams is #58 and Alfaro is a catcher ranked #86 prospect.  It would have taken Berrios, Kepler, and one other top 100 ranked plus a couple lower ranked guys like Chin-Wei Hu to equate to what the Rangers gave in trade. 

 

Are you really saying the team should have considered such a move when it is obvious they were not anywhere near the point of maintaining contention?  Should they have given up the very players that likely get them to contention to be a little better for 3 years if he does not regress as he will be 35 at the end of the contract.

 

I would prefer 6 years of Kepler + 6 years or Berrios + 6 years of Gordon or Jay or whoever else it would have taken for 6 years, plus the $67.5M over 3 years that could be spent on a very good FA SP.   I just don’t understand why so many posters here want us to give away our future for a player that makes us a little better than the terrible team we are now.  It’s a very good way to stay bad or mediocre.  I really don’t think there is not a GM in baseball that would consider this trade for 30 seconds given the Twins status.

 

Is there ever a time to trade the unknown future of prospects that rarely work out, for the more certain present? Last year may not have been that year (though I'd argue they could have acquired Tulo w/o selling off the farm), but is there ever a year where you'd try to go big? Or, should they just never do that?

[Riverbrian]

 

Actually, if you are going back in time anyway, wouldn't it be better to go back to before the 2015 season, and just sign someone like Neshek?  You could still have pursued Jepsen at the deadline, but maybe Tampa settles for something less than Hu knowing the Twins aren't quite so desperate.  (And once the 2015 season was over, I feel Tampa would have been the one more desperate to deal Jepsen, to avoid his 2016 salary obligation.)

 

Heck, knowing how quickly we were willing to bury Arcia, you could quite possibly have dealt Arcia to the Angels for Jepsen before the 2015 season, if you had your eye on Jepsen back then.

 

If I truly went back in time. Jepsen wouldn't have been my target. With or without hindsight. 

 

In all honestly... When I say that if I could go back in time... knowing what Jepsen would pitch like in 2016 and still make that trade.

 

I'm saying it from the standpoint of specifically Jepsen because that was the player acquired and the standpoint of needing bullpen help badly in June and July while the team was leading everybody else in the wild card chase. 

 

If I could truly go back in time to June and July 2015.. I would have been hell bent on acquiring two better relievers and getting it done long before the deadline to help the team as soon as possible. 

 

It was very difficult to watch July go by with nothing being done. Once the Jepsen trade was made... I was happy something... anything got done but that happiness was mixed with a dose of  being underwhelmed and pretty large dose of disappointment that it took so long to be underwhelmed. 

 

I was pleasantly surprised by his performance in 2015 but still knew in my heart of hearts that the overall ball was dropped. 

 

Then came the off-season... The same mistake again. Another chance to take a team that almost made the playoffs and support them with guys who can protect leads and another chance not taken. 

 

 

 

 

[tobi0040]

Then came the off-season... The same mistake again. Another chance to take a team that almost made the playoffs and support them with guys who can protect leads and another chance not taken.

That is the biggest issue for me. Terry just has the same playbook over and over and over again. It never changes, even after it fails for six years in a row.

 

The worst thing that can happen in the second half would be a surge, led by young players that will somehow validate this rebuild to the Pohlad's. Which would keep Terry around longer.

Edited July 14, 2016 by tobi0040

[ashbury]

 A couple of breaks the other way and they would have been in it.

A couple of breaks, more? Every break went their way as it was.

 

For example. League-wide 2015, OPS was .711 with bases empty and .753 with runners in scoring position. The Twins' numbers were .660 and .791 respectively. That differential is not a repeatable skill, it's just bunching your hits to maximum effect, resulting in runs being scored at a higher rate than your underlying abilities would sustain. Some of us were saying so at the time. The same batters, more or less, find it not so easy this year. Go figure.

 

It was fool's gold - not that I didn't enjoy the wins. Wins are good. But I'm glad Ryan didn't gut the farm system to go for it all.

[ashbury]

The worst thing that can happen in the second half would be a surge, led by young players

You're rooting against our prospects stepping up? Because it would be validation for positions you don't advocate? Remind me not to sit next to you at games.

 

I'm no fan of Nolasco but I'm still rooting for him to throw a no-no everytime he takes the mound. (Oops, did I just jinx him? )

[FargoFanMan]

A couple of breaks, more? Every break went their way as it was.

 

For example. League-wide 2015, OPS was .711 with bases empty and .753 with runners in scoring position. The Twins' numbers were .660 and .791 respectively. That differential is not a repeatable skill, it's just bunching your hits to maximum effect, resulting in runs being scored at a higher rate than your underlying abilities would sustain. Some of us were saying so at the time. The same batters, more or less, find it not so easy this year. Go figure.

 

It was fool's gold - not that I didn't enjoy the wins. Wins are good. But I'm glad Ryan didn't gut the farm system to go for it all.

A few more breaks could have just been Dozier not falling off a cliff the second half. Perkins not tanking and getting hurt. Mauer having a typical Joe month or even a week or two. Any one of these combined with a legit trade deadline deal might have pushed them over the edge and gotten them in. Once in the playoffs anything can happen. It wouldn't have taken gutting the system. Just something more than acquiring Jepsen. TR has continually done this and left the twins short handed for a stretch run aside from Shannon Stewart ages ago. I'm not talking last year blue jays go for it but damn. I believe it's totally worth it to part with a few prospects to watch the twins winning in October. I'm not asking for a 100 win team. Just one that wins in the postseason. And one that isn't 3 years or 5 years away. If we keep waiting for that we'll become the Pirates or royals for 20-30+ years. No thank you.

[ashbury]

 I believe it's totally worth it to part with a few prospects to watch the twins winning in October.

It wasn't there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If we keep waiting for that we'll become the Pirates or royals for 20-30+ years. No thank you.

And neither the Pirates nor the Royals won until they burned everything to the ground and rebuilt from the farm system.

 

The Twins, talent-wise, were about a 75-78 win team last season. They had almost everything break right for them... But you're saying that were everything to break entirely super-duper right for them, they could have made the postseason.

 

Luck is not a reason to push all your chips into the middle of the table. It's nearly a sure-fire way to lose over and over again until you're entirely broke.

 

I was fine with Ryan's moves last season, I only think they should have happened a month before they did (or, once May happened, he should have been more aggressive with bullpen fixes from the either the waiver wire or the farm).

 

But the 2015 Twins simply weren't a very good team. They were a mediocre, maybe slightly below mediocre, team that had a bunch of stuff go right for a month.

[tobi0040]

You're rooting against our prospects stepping up? Because it would be validation for positions you don't advocate? Remind me not to sit next to you at games.

 

I'm no fan of Nolasco but I'm still rooting for him to throw a no-no everytime he takes the mound. (Oops, did I just jinx him? )

I am not rooting against anyone. I actually have been taping and just watching Sano, Buxton, and Kepler bat! I am just saying any outcome that leads the owners to keep Terry Ryan around is a net negative for the franchise. I see this as one of those that could.

[Jham]

 

I am not rooting against anyone. I actually have been taping and just watching Sano, Buxton, and Kepler bat! I am just saying any outcome that leads the owners to keep Terry Ryan around is a net negative for the franchise. I see this as one of those that could.

Except I haven't seen that much evidence that Terry's plan is that different from most of the Twins Daily posters with the exception of playing time which he doesn't control.  His plan is starting to look like several years of hardcore rebuild starting when he retook his office, disguised by signing of mediocre vets who hopefully don't have to be relied upon when they go in decline but maybe buy us some time and trade value.  Hopefully this will produce enough wins and attendance to placate the masses and TD until the future arrives (a few months or a year too late).

Then when things went wrong (prospects took longer, vets lost trade value) the plan B is what would have happened anyway.  We just sit and wait for prospects to be MLB ready.  

Item 5 or 6 on TR's strategic rebuild 4 years ago may have been:
"No. 5 - weather the s*storm on Twins Daily if prospects fail to push out vets on schedule".  

But without that, it's like 6 straight years of horrible baseball with AAAA guys having to play, no one the average fan has heard of, no promise to our current team that we're trying, and no message to the fans that we're trying or that the Pohlads are anything but cheap.  They spent on teams that were likely to lose.  Last year was a bonus.  This year shows that we're probably a year behind schedule.  It might (hopefully!) only be half a year.

This year has been horrible.  Some see the FA signings as typical TR moves to block prospects.  I saw them as necessary signings to make the team watchable while we wait for guys to grow up.

Now, if the rest of this year and next year shows that the results aren't based on late blooming prospects, but rather a poor plan or poor execution, then that's a TR issue.  If his plan was to hold the ship together with duct tape (and fans in the seats) until the Buxton, Sano, Berrios Coastguard arrived, then I think Ryan deserves a chance to see that through to the point where such a notion would appear fool-hardy.  Granted, I'm skeptical the plan can work, but I haven't given up on it completely.  And if the team finishes strong and has a 2017 like a Cubs 2015 that would be who's success again?

[alarp33]

 

Except I haven't seen that much evidence that Terry's plan is that different from most of the Twins Daily posters with the exception of playing time which he doesn't control. 

 

I gotta be honest, you are watching a different team and reading a different message board than me if you think the only difference between every move TR makes and what people want is playing time

[Jham]

 

I gotta be honest, you are watching a different team and reading a different message board than me if you think the only difference between every move TR makes and what people want is playing time

Ok fair enough.  I did use a qualifier of "that much different", but I can't be all that specific since TD has a fairly diverse set of amateur general managers.  But if we can agree that the trade "X punching bag" for "whatever we can get" would probably not yield a serviceable piece, but rather offer nothing but playing time for a young player who probably isn't ready, a AAAA lifetime achievement award winner, an even worse veteran waiver claim, or salary relief for a billionaire owner, we're mostly left with those few extremists who think we should have either pushed all in last year or before this year, or start a new rebuild now and waste 3 years of Buxton, Sano, Kep, and Berrios.  

So, simple questions: WAS the idea to build around Buxton, Sano, (probably was also Meyer, May, Gibson, and Berrios)?  WAS this a terrible idea for which TR should be fired?  IS this still the best course of action?  If the answer is yes on all of these questions, the manner in which got from point A (horridness) to B (relevance) is less important than actually getting to B.  If B is still the destination, then what was so wrong with TR's plan?  If B is no longer the plan, then TR needs to go, but so probably do Buxton, Sano, and any other trade-able asset that can bring a slew of prospects.  Basically, if we're not giving up on the plan, why give up on the planner?
 

[Mike Sixel]

Has TR successfully built around them? Did he sign flyers and deal them? Did he keep a closer around, when he wasn't needed, or did he deal him to help the rebuild? How good have his trades been for guys that really matter? 

 

The idea of building around those two players is a fine idea.....how is he doing in putting 25-30 other players in place?

 

I think above you said 2017 was the goal.....so if they don't contend next year, are we ready to move on? The goal posts for those that think TR should keep his job keep moving (for these even willing to put a date on a goal, I always thought goals had to have a time component, but that's not apparently true for baseball contention).

Edited July 14, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[FargoFanMan]

And neither the Pirates nor the Royals won until they burned everything to the ground and rebuilt from the farm system.

 

The Twins, talent-wise, were about a 75-78 win team last season. They had almost everything break right for them... But you're saying that were everything to break entirely super-duper right for them, they could have made the postseason.

 

Luck is not a reason to push all your chips into the middle of the table. It's nearly a sure-fire way to lose over and over again until you're entirely broke.

 

I was fine with Ryan's moves last season, I only think they should have happened a month before they did (or, once May happened, he should have been more aggressive with bullpen fixes from the either the waiver wire or the farm).

 

But the 2015 Twins simply weren't a very good team. They were a mediocre, maybe slightly below mediocre, team that had a bunch of stuff go right for a month.

Correct. Not a soul thought they would be that close but the fact is they were. 3 games would have got them into the playoffs. 3 games. From there on who knows what happens. The playoffs are a crapshoot and the hot hand can ride to the World Series despite who's playing first base or how so and so hits versus left handed pitching in night games colder than 60 degrees or whatever you want to throw out there. What I'm saying is time and time again the twins front office has failed to deliver or under deliver help to this team for a stretch run. Not just last year but many years. Specifically in the 2000's. Holding on to these prospects promising a better tomorrow when help is needed today. That's my point I am trying to make here. Last year was a fluke. I agree. But to go out and only get Kevin jepsen when another piece might have gotten us to the big dance at the expense of a couple of prospects who won't amount to much if anything is why the twins have not brought a championship home in over 20+ years.

[Jham]

 

Has TR successfully built around them? Did he sign flyers and deal them? Did he keep a closer around, when he wasn't needed, or did he deal him to help the rebuild? How good have his trades been for guys that really matter? 

 

The idea of building around those two players is a fine idea.....how is he doing in putting 25-30 other players in place?

 

I think above you said 2017 was the goal.....so if they don't contend next year, are we ready to move on? The goal posts for those that think TR should keep his job keep moving (for these even willing to put a date on a goal, I always thought goals had to have a time component, but that's not apparently true for baseball contention).

 

To me, yes, next season is the put up or shut up year on several levels.  Even this second half has to give us reason to try to contend next year.  If next year isn't much better, then the plan carried a flawed premise regarding building around an unrealistic time frame or unrealistic evaluation of our players.  Literally, I think we just need to see if this wave of prospects is good enough.  Not every player has immediate success but Sano was a pro since 16, and Buxton since 18.  If they don't produce next season, then they shouldn't have been planned around, they shouldn't be planned around, and drastic changes need to be made.

If Sano hits 40 bombs, Buxton hits .300 with 12 hr, and Rosario and Kepler catch everything else...  Dozier and Nunez/ Esco play as they have the last couple years...  That's a more talented roster than we had last season.  Berrios, Gibson, Duffey and only 2 of Milone, Nolasco, May, Hughes need to be .500 pitchers assuming we trade Santana, would give a fairly balanced rotation.  At that point, we can evaluate whether TR put enough talent around or can add enough talent during the season.  In fact, if we don't play it like we're going to be good next season, then TR would be seemingly abandoning his plan, and for that I'd let him go.  Big 2nd half coming up.

[alarp33]

 

Ok fair enough.  I did use a qualifier of "that much different", but I can't be all that specific since TD has a fairly diverse set of amateur general managers.  But if we can agree that the trade "X punching bag" for "whatever we can get" would probably not yield a serviceable piece, but rather offer nothing but playing time for a young player who probably isn't ready, a AAAA lifetime achievement award winner, an even worse veteran waiver claim, or salary relief for a billionaire owner, we're mostly left with those few extremists who think we should have either pushed all in last year or before this year, or start a new rebuild now and waste 3 years of Buxton, Sano, Kep, and Berrios.  

So, simple questions: WAS the idea to build around Buxton, Sano, (probably was also Meyer, May, Gibson, and Berrios)?  WAS this a terrible idea for which TR should be fired?  IS this still the best course of action?  If the answer is yes on all of these questions, the manner in which got from point A (horridness) to B (relevance) is less important than actually getting to B.  If B is still the destination, then what was so wrong with TR's plan?  If B is no longer the plan, then TR needs to go, but so probably do Buxton, Sano, and any other trade-able asset that can bring a slew of prospects.  Basically, if we're not giving up on the plan, why give up on the planner?
 

 

How did he build around them? By ignoring the bullpen, littering the rotation with overpriced #4/ 5 starters.  Where did extending Phil Hughes with 2 years left on his deal fall in building around Buxton/Sano?  I could go on but I think you've got the point.  

 

The Twins haven't won a single playoff game in 12 seasons, and are about to lose 90 for the 5th time in 6 years.  If you think a GM who has been around for 20 years deserves MORE time, we probably aren't going to agree on much.  

 

In what other sport or what other organization would a front office be allowed to continue after showing this level of incompetence over such an extended period of time?

[tobi0040]

How did he build around them? By ignoring the bullpen, littering the rotation with overpriced #4/ 5 starters.  Where did extending Phil Hughes with 2 years left on his deal fall in building around Buxton/Sano?  I could go on but I think you've got the point.  

 

The Twins haven't won a single playoff game in 12 seasons, and are about to lose 90 for the 5th time in 6 years.  If you think a GM who has been around for 20 years deserves MORE time, we probably aren't going to agree on much.  

 

In what other sport or what other organization would a front office be allowed to continue after showing this level of incompetence over such an extended period of time?

We are basically close now to Kevin McHale’s, post 2004 run. Which is about six years of futility. But the 2005-2009 Wolves “Futility” consisted being about middle of the pack for two years and then kicking in a full rebuild with the KG trade. McHale lasted as GM five years and that 2004 run was obviously deeper that TR has ever been, with two playoff series wins and being a final four team.

 

Terry Ryan’s second run more resembles David Kahn’s tenure. That was a four year disaster and he was fired.

[alarp33]

 

We are basically close now to Kevin McHale’s, post 2004 run. Which is about six years of futility. But the 2005-2009 Wolves “Futility” consisted being about middle of the pack for two years and then kicking in a full rebuild with the KG trade. McHale lasted as GM five years and that 2004 run was obviously deeper that TR has ever been, with two playoff series wins and being a final four team.

Terry Ryan’s second run more resembles David Kahn’s tenure. That was a four year disaster and he was fired.

 

Probably a fair comparison.  They both started in the mid 90s, made playoffs (> half NBA teams make playoffs, Twins won a terrible division a few times) before quickly flaming out in all but 1 year for each franchise.  Only problem is McHale has now been gone for almost 8 years...Kahn = Billy Smith?  

 

I mean just imagine if after the Kahn tenure Glen Taylor had brought back McHale to be the GM... 

[Everyday Eddy]

The "need more time" argument for GM's is fine if there's a solid plan being executed and people can see light at the end of the tunnel.    Every GM that's been fired in history would probably say they need more time.    TR makes weird decisions that make no sense and then after tries to say they are all a part of a plan.    There is overwhelming evidence that there is no plan and never really was.    Also, there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

[tobi0040]

Probably a fair comparison.  They both started in the mid 90s, made playoffs (> half NBA teams make playoffs, Twins won a terrible division a few times) before quickly flaming out in all but 1 year for each franchise.  Only problem is McHale has now been gone for almost 8 years...Kahn = Billy Smith?  

 

I mean just imagine if after the Kahn tenure Glen Taylor had brought back McHale to be the GM...

Yeah. Another interesting comp between Kahn and Smith. Taylor did exactly what the Twins need to do, go out and find a well regarded GM from a good program and hire a good coach. Both of which were external.

[Major League Ready]

 

Is there ever a time to trade the unknown future of prospects that rarely work out, for the more certain present? Last year may not have been that year (though I'd argue they could have acquired Tulo w/o selling off the farm), but is there ever a year where you'd try to go big? Or, should they just never do that?

First, tell me how they would have traded for Tulo without giving up a top prospect.  The Jays gave up a top 50 pitching prospect plus two other pitching prospects.  Casto is already pitching at the ML level already and Hoffman is #46 on MLB.com.  Second, they have gotten equivalent product from current players at $20M less per year.  Third, do you think the back-end of Tulo’s contract is likely to be “Mauer like” in terms of value?

 

The high profile players that are part of these trades don’t always pan out either.  The Dbacks deal for Shelby Miller is a very is a good example because the scenario is so similar.  They are a team that had been very bad but had pieces in place.  They made the big deal you and others are so enamored with believing it will make the team a contender.   

 

How is that one working out?  Miller was just sent to AAA.  That’s how bad he has been and the Dbacks are under 500.  And, they would not be in contention even if Miller had performed at his career norm.  They were not ready which is what I keep saying about the Twins and you keep insisting they should go for it anyway.  The dbacks are going to have Grienke’s contract until he is just short of 38 years old.  That big deal will probably hurt this franchise for several years to come.  Just like Tulo’s contract is likely be an anchor for Toronto in the final couple years.

 

These deals can kill a franchise.  That's the disconnect between fans and the people responsible for the long-term health of an organization.   Why would you risk this now when the Twins when they are positioned to put a great product on the field for a decade or more? 

 

To answer your question.  Yes, there is a time.  The Twins are just absolutely not in that time.  You make these kind of deals when you are in a window of contention.  Posters here were ready to trade Kepler plus whatever else for Lucroy during the off-season.  He would have been gone after next year and the Twins will have Kepler who will likely be a better player for an additional five years.  We would have gained (arguably) nothing by trading for Tulo.  We would have picked up $20M in salary on an aging SS.  Gordon will be almost 26 years old when Tulo’s contract is up.  How is that not going to end up being a problem?  Plus, once we are finally out from under Mauer’s contract, we would have another boat anchor and you and others would be complaining that we can’t sign big name free agents or perhaps even keep our own players.  It all sounds wonderful if you ignore the almost certain long-term cost.

[Mike Sixel]

Remember, Tor also salary dumped Reyes in that deal.......it's like people can't recall that part.

 

It's amazing how people write entire paragraphs about 1 small part of a post, but barely anything on the actual point......which is that sometimes, a team should go all in, or trade from the future. Ryan has done that 1 time in his tenure, 1 time. But, hey, if Jason Tyner is your DH, that's no time to deal for help......

 

Using AZ as an example of bad management? That's like fishing in a stocked trout pond with corn......anyone can point out that stupidity. Most did at the time......

[Everyday Eddy]

 

First, tell me how they would have traded for Tulo without giving up a top prospect.  The Jays gave up a top 50 pitching prospect plus two other pitching prospects.  Casto is already pitching at the ML level already and Hoffman is #46 on MLB.com.  Second, they have gotten equivalent product from current players at $20M less per year.  Third, do you think the back-end of Tulo’s contract is likely to be “Mauer like” in terms of value?

 

The high profile players that are part of these trades don’t always pan out either.  The Dbacks deal for Shelby Miller is a very is a good example because the scenario is so similar.  They are a team that had been very bad but had pieces in place.  They made the big deal you and others are so enamored with believing it will make the team a contender.   

 

How is that one working out?  Miller was just sent to AAA.  That’s how bad he has been and the Dbacks are under 500.  And, they would not be in contention even if Miller had performed at his career norm.  They were not ready which is what I keep saying about the Twins and you keep insisting they should go for it anyway.  The dbacks are going to have Grienke’s contract until he is just short of 38 years old.  That big deal will probably hurt this franchise for several years to come.  Just like Tulo’s contract is likely be an anchor for Toronto in the final couple years.

 

These deals can kill a franchise.  That's the disconnect between fans and the people responsible for the long-term health of an organization.   Why would you risk this now when the Twins when they are positioned to put a great product on the field for a decade or more? 

 

To answer your question.  Yes, there is a time.  The Twins are just absolutely not in that time.  You make these kind of deals when you are in a window of contention.  Posters here were ready to trade Kepler plus whatever else for Lucroy during the off-season.  He would have been gone after next year and the Twins will have Kepler who will likely be a better player for an additional five years.  We would have gained (arguably) nothing by trading for Tulo.  We would have picked up $20M in salary on an aging SS.  Gordon will be almost 26 years old when Tulo’s contract is up.  How is that not going to end up being a problem?  Plus, once we are finally out from under Mauer’s contract, we would have another boat anchor and you and others would be complaining that we can’t sign big name free agents or perhaps even keep our own players.  It all sounds wonderful if you ignore the almost certain long-term cost.

 

Smart franchises know that you can DFA a guy that isn't playing up to his contract.    Sunk costs are a real thing and something smart GM's and owners plan for.    I'm sure toronto knows they'll be paying Tulowitzki while he's a bench player for some other team.  These big contracts do not kill smart franchises

[jimmer]

 

Remember, Tor also salary dumped Reyes in that deal.......it's like people can't recall that part.

 

It's amazing how people write entire paragraphs about 1 small part of a post, but barely anything on the actual point......which is that sometimes, a team should go all in, or trade from the future. Ryan has done that 1 time in his tenure, 1 time. But, hey, if Jason Tyner is your DH, that's no time to deal for help......

 

Using AZ as an example of bad management? That's like fishing in a stocked trout pond with corn......anyone can point out that stupidity. Most did at the time......

When was that time again? I can't recall.  I'm not joking. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

First, tell me how they would have traded for Tulo without giving up a top prospect.  The Jays gave up a top 50 pitching prospect plus two other pitching prospects.  Casto is already pitching at the ML level already and Hoffman is #46 on MLB.com.  Second, they have gotten equivalent product from current players at $20M less per year.  Third, do you think the back-end of Tulo’s contract is likely to be “Mauer like” in terms of value?

 

The high profile players that are part of these trades don’t always pan out either.  The Dbacks deal for Shelby Miller is a very is a good example because the scenario is so similar.  They are a team that had been very bad but had pieces in place.  They made the big deal you and others are so enamored with believing it will make the team a contender.   

 

How is that one working out?  Miller was just sent to AAA.  That’s how bad he has been and the Dbacks are under 500.  And, they would not be in contention even if Miller had performed at his career norm.  They were not ready which is what I keep saying about the Twins and you keep insisting they should go for it anyway.  The dbacks are going to have Grienke’s contract until he is just short of 38 years old.  That big deal will probably hurt this franchise for several years to come.  Just like Tulo’s contract is likely be an anchor for Toronto in the final couple years.

 

These deals can kill a franchise.  That's the disconnect between fans and the people responsible for the long-term health of an organization.   Why would you risk this now when the Twins when they are positioned to put a great product on the field for a decade or more? 

 

To answer your question.  Yes, there is a time.  The Twins are just absolutely not in that time.  You make these kind of deals when you are in a window of contention.  Posters here were ready to trade Kepler plus whatever else for Lucroy during the off-season.  He would have been gone after next year and the Twins will have Kepler who will likely be a better player for an additional five years.  We would have gained (arguably) nothing by trading for Tulo.  We would have picked up $20M in salary on an aging SS.  Gordon will be almost 26 years old when Tulo’s contract is up.  How is that not going to end up being a problem?  Plus, once we are finally out from under Mauer’s contract, we would have another boat anchor and you and others would be complaining that we can’t sign big name free agents or perhaps even keep our own players.  It all sounds wonderful if you ignore the almost certain long-term cost.

 

I'm sure TOR really regrets the playoff run last year, or the high possibility of being in the playoffs this year......But, I bet the Twins are loving the last 5 years and this year.

 

edit:

They saw a window, when NY and BOS were down, and traded and signed players to go for it. They were awesome last year, and are looking like serious contenders this year. By arguing they were stupid for doing this.....aren't you really saying there is no time to go all in? I mean, when should TOR go all in, if not when NY and BOS are down, and they are close?

Edited July 15, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Mike Sixel]

 

When was that time again? I can't recall.  I'm not joking. 

 

Kielty for Stewart, imo.

[jimmer]

 

Kielty for Stewart, imo.

ah, the trade from the future part.  I was stuck on the going all in part.  In that case, we can add Hu for Jepsen :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Remember, Tor also salary dumped Reyes in that deal.......it's like people can't recall that part.

It's also important to remember that Colorado actually wanted Reyes because the GM of the Rockies is a lunatic.

 

Almost everyone considered Reyes a drag on that deal... Except for Colorado.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's also important to remember that Colorado actually wanted Reyes because the GM of the Rockies is a lunatic.

 

Almost everyone considered Reyes a drag on that deal... Except for Colorado.

 

Well, he said he wanted him.....and it's possible that is true, but if it is, ouch. Big ouch.

[Major League Ready]

 

Remember, Tor also salary dumped Reyes in that deal.......it's like people can't recall that part.

 

It's amazing how people write entire paragraphs about 1 small part of a post, but barely anything on the actual point......which is that sometimes, a team should go all in, or trade from the future. Ryan has done that 1 time in his tenure, 1 time. But, hey, if Jason Tyner is your DH, that's no time to deal for help......

 

Using AZ as an example of bad management? That's like fishing in a stocked trout pond with corn......anyone can point out that stupidity. Most did at the time......

The entire content was relevant to why the Twins should not have done any of these deals last year or now.  Let’s not talk about ignoring elements of a post when …  

 

You ignored the part about explaining how the Twins could have gotten Tulo without giving up a top prospect given Colorado got a top 50 and two other pitching prospects.

 

You ignored the fact that Reyes had $48M remaining and Tulo had $109M.  You might not think this is relevant but anyone I have ever worked with that has every managed at $100M plus P&L would consider that omission a significant lapse in judgment.

 

You also ignored there is also a risk in acquiring a good player like Miller. 

 

You also refused to acknowledge that the Twins were not ready and giving up top prospects at this time would have been a bad idea, especially for Lucroy who would have been a FA after next year.

 

You ignored that the Twins would have very likely ended up with a couple years of a very bad contract with Greinke or Tulo and that those contracts would be bad when the Twins are much more likely to be contending.

 

Most importantly, you ignored the potential for these deals to kill a franchise for several years.  Perhaps you can explain how none of this was germane to your post.