Article: Commitment Issues

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think there should also be some criticism around succession planning at the catcher position.

It should have been apparent that Mauer was not going to be catching at 31/32 with that contract obligation. So the lack of investment in that position is the real issue. That leads folks to defend the signing of Suzuki because we had no other options.

 

I don't know that you can say that it should be apparent that Mauer wouldn't be able to catch at 31/32. There are tons of catchers still active at that age. They don't tend to be as good but Mauer as a catcher was amazing (if he was a catcher right now, no one would be complaining about his hitting, he'd be a very good option at catcher). He suddenly and unexpectedly couldn't catch and I think it's hard to blame the Twins for not being ready for this - you can't prepare for everything. Trading Ramos made sense for a team with eyes on the postseason - they just needed to get more than Fat Craps. Stupid Bill Smith.

 

I also don't think you can say the Twins haven't invested in the position - they have, it just hasn't turned out perfectly, which happens in a world where we don't have the benefit of hindsight. The Twins have drafted some high-upside catchers in Garver and Turner who have taken some time (as catchers tend to). They also had Pinto* set up and concussions and fielding issues just never quite put him into the mix on the MLB level. The Twins even traded for JRM - it hasn't worked (yet) but was the right move to make. They didn't do the stupid thing and go sign a Russell Martin (woof to that contract BTW - a warning sign about pursuing Ramos this offseason). Suzuki hasn't been amazing but he's been an okay stop gap and likely worth the money invested as he has certainly better over the past three or four years than anyone else in his pay slot on the free market.

 

Catcher is a probably the hardest position to be set at (maybe shortstop too?) so sometimes you have trouble with it. I like (but don't love) the future options for the position and understand the reasonable moves that left the Twins in this position. It happens, we'll be better in the future.

 

* Was looking at Pinto because I'd forgotten about him. He's tearing it up in AAA for the Brewers (.965 OPS with lots of doubles) but only catching about half the time, playing first the rest. I don't know if that's a catching depth thing or a "he's not much more than an emergency backup catcher" type thing. Would love to see him do well, always enjoyed the way he played.

[tobi0040]

I don't know that you can say that it should be apparent that Mauer wouldn't be able to catch at 31/32. There are tons of catchers still active at that age. They don't tend to be as good but Mauer as a catcher was amazing (if he was a catcher right now, no one would be complaining about his hitting, he'd be a very good option at catcher). He suddenly and unexpectedly couldn't catch and I think it's hard to blame the Twins for not being ready for this - you can't prepare for everything. Trading Ramos made sense for a team with eyes on the postseason - they just needed to get more than Fat Craps. Stupid Bill Smith.

 

I also don't think you can say the Twins haven't invested in the position - they have, it just hasn't turned out perfectly, which happens in a world where we don't have the benefit of hindsight. The Twins have drafted some high-upside catchers in Garver and Turner who have taken some time (as catchers tend to). They also had Pinto* set up and concussions and fielding issues just never quite put him into the mix on the MLB level. The Twins even traded for JRM - it hasn't worked (yet) but was the right move to make. They didn't do the stupid thing and go sign a Russell Martin (woof to that contract BTW - a warning sign about pursuing Ramos this offseason). Suzuki hasn't been amazing but he's been an okay stop gap and likely worth the money invested as he has certainly better over the past three or four years than anyone else in his pay slot on the free market.

 

Catcher is a probably the hardest position to be set at (maybe shortstop too?) so sometimes you have trouble with it. I like (but don't love) the future options for the position and understand the reasonable moves that left the Twins in this position. It happens, we'll be better in the future.

 

* Was looking at Pinto because I'd forgotten about him. He's tearing it up in AAA for the Brewers (.965 OPS with lots of doubles) but only catching about half the time, playing first the rest. I don't know if that's a catching depth thing or a "he's not much more than an emergency backup catcher" type thing. Would love to see him do well, always enjoyed the way he played.

I think it should have been obvious that Mauer, with the contract obligation going out to age 35/36 and past knee isssues was not going to be a full time catcher at 31/32. He should have been at best a 50% catcher. So any strategy that leaves Drew Butera catching 80 games deserves to be ridiculed.

 

We may not agree on the succession planning. But we never made a large free agent commitment or top draft pick on the position, post Mauer. With the hole the Ramos trade left, I don't think we have done enough.

Edited July 13, 2016 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Jepsen's 2015 in TB wasn't particularly good. His K rate was plummeting and his walk rate FIP and WHIP were all rising. He had one really nice year in LA and a couple pretty good ones.

 

The Twins struck gold when he put on a career best performance for them last year, but he had no track record of that kind of pitching prior and he was on the wrong side of 30. At the time of the trade the Twins really should have had no illusions about what kind of pitcher he was and where his numbers were trending.

To be fair, I remember reading he had fought a minor injury early in the 2015 season and wasn't healthy until July, when he turned back into a good pitcher (and similar to what he had done in previous seasons).

 

The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa.

 

But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher.

[FargoFanMan]

I love it! The twins weren't a playoff team last year? Turns out they were right in the hunt. A couple of breaks the other way and they would have been in it. I hated the trade at the time because they should have went out and got more. The pieces they gave away for jepsen were never and still more than likely never figured into our plans. Especially if you are trying to win now. In baseball you should always be trying to win now unless you are where the twins are this year. In baseball as well as any other sport playoffs are so much about getting hot at the right time. Or as a former coach always preached it's about working towards playing your best ball at the end of the season. How often in any sport does the favored team or team with the best record win it all? Hardly ever. If you continually hold on to your pieces and hope for the future you end up like the 2000's twins. Always 1 or 2 pieces away hoping for prospects that never amount to anything to help you win it all next year. I would rather watch a handful of "great" prospects get traded away for players to help us win a World Series than to watch the twins for 10 years continually lose in the first round or barely not make it there year after year. You can argue prospects and numbers all day everyday and pretend that Major League Baseball is the same thing as your favorite video game but the fact of the matter is is that prospects and numbers rarely win you anything but fancy awards as you watch someone else winning a ring.

[jimmer]

 

I love it! The twins weren't a playoff team last year? Turns out they were right in the hunt. A couple of breaks the other way and they would have been in it.

They had more than their fair share of breaks.  The sequencing they had last year was unsustainable that's why many people saw that their roster was mostly the same going into this year and we'd see a fall back (though not THIS far of a fall).  Can't blame them not making the playoffs on a few breaks not going their way, you can say they had a lot of things go their way to put this team even in the 2nd wild card race last year to begin with.

Edited July 13, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

I don't know that you can say that it should be apparent that Mauer wouldn't be able to catch at 31/32. There are tons of catchers still active at that age. They don't tend to be as good but Mauer as a catcher was amazing (if he was a catcher right now, no one would be complaining about his hitting, he'd be a very good option at catcher). He suddenly and unexpectedly couldn't catch and I think it's hard to blame the Twins for not being ready for this - you can't prepare for everything. Trading Ramos made sense for a team with eyes on the postseason - they just needed to get more than Fat Craps. Stupid Bill Smith.

 

 

 

How many of those Catchers still catching at 31/32 are 6'5" with knee issues in their 20's?

[alarp33]

 

To be fair, I remember reading he had fought a minor injury early in the 2015 season and wasn't healthy until July, when he turned back into a good pitcher (and similar to what he had done in previous seasons).

 

The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa.

 

But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher.

 

Not clear what side you are arguing exactly here, but I don't know about "similar to what he had done in previous seasons"

 

Aug 2nd - End of Season 2015:  .224 BABIP, 84.8% LOB%  2.25 BB/9, 3.1% HR/FB

 

Career:  .311 BABIP, 72.1% LOB%, 3.52 BB/9,. 7.7% HR/FB

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not clear what side you are arguing exactly here, but I don't know about "similar to what he had done in previous seasons"

 

Aug 2nd - End of Season 2015:  .224 BABIP, 84.8% LOB%  2.25 BB/9, 3.1% HR/FB

 

Career:  .311 BABIP, 72.1% LOB%, 3.52 BB/9,. 7.7% HR/FB

Yes, but Jepsen was much worse the first two months of 2015, good the next month, even better the following two months.

[wsnydes]

 

Yes, but Jepsen was much worse the first two months of 2015, good the next month, even better the following two months.

I believe that's why he gave you numbers from August 2nd to the end of the season compared to his career numbers.  At least that is how I interpreted it.

[big dog]

 

Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster.

 

And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor.

 

I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.

Pointing out the value of rankings...that's a top 100 prospect who never made it above AA and has been in independent leagues since age 26.  That kind of thing makes me feel even more that I probably overvalue prospects like Hu.

 

Garza and Bartlett for Young struck me at the time as a worse decision than releasing Ortiz, and far worse than Ramos and Testa for Capps.

 

Abad, Kintzler, etc: just flip 'em.  Do it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I believe that's why he gave you numbers from August 2nd to the end of the season compared to his career numbers.  At least that is how I interpreted it.

Ah, my bad. I missed that.

[troyhobbs]

Adding Jepsen was a pretty weak move regardless. Either go all out for a playoff push or throw in the towel and focus on the future. Despite what any of us think the fact is Terry Ryan is on the bad end of deals time and time again.....and he gets paid to make those bad decisions. There is at least a dozen posters on this site that I'd hire as GM before Terry Ryan and have every confidence that they could do a better job.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa.

 

There you go again, saying the Twins need to rely more on analytics and less on the scouts

[markos]

 

Not clear what side you are arguing exactly here, but I don't know about "similar to what he had done in previous seasons"

 

Aug 2nd - End of Season 2015:  .224 BABIP, 84.8% LOB%  2.25 BB/9, 3.1% HR/FB

 

Career:  .311 BABIP, 72.1% LOB%, 3.52 BB/9,. 7.7% HR/FB

Sure, but those stats are the difference between Jepsen with a 1.60 ERA and a 3.00 ERA. With the Twins, his K% (23%), BB% (7%) and swinging strike rate (12%) were all similar to his 2012-2014 run (25%, 8%, 10%).

 

I'm just an armchair analyst, so maybe I'm missing something obvious. But right now I don't see obvious reasons why there was any expectation (other than normal reliever randomness) for Jepsen to not be his usual solid but unspectacular self (3.00-3.50 ERA) and instead be the worst reliever in baseball.

[alarp33]

 

Sure, but those stats are the difference between Jepsen with a 1.60 ERA and a 3.00 ERA. With the Twins, his K% (23%), BB% (7%) and swinging strike rate (12%) were all similar to his 2012-2014 run (25%, 8%, 10%).

 

I'm just an armchair analyst, so maybe I'm missing something obvious. But right now I don't see obvious reasons why there was any expectation (other than normal reliever randomness) for Jepsen to not be his usual solid but unspectacular self (3.00-3.50 ERA) and instead be the worst reliever in baseball.

 

I was only commenting on his unsustainable end of 2015 numbers, I may have misunderstood the discussion people were having.  Specifically this; 

 

"To be fair, I remember reading he had fought a minor injury early in the 2015 season and wasn't healthy until July, when he turned back into a good pitcher (and similar to what he had done in previous seasons)."

 

And was disagreeing with the end of 2015 "healthy" Jepsen was what could be expected as it was career norms... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nobody could of forseen Jepsen falling off the face of a cliff so sharply after August / September of last year even at the Winter Meetings just months ago.

Wait, so we're giving credit to the Twins for foreseeing Jepsen's two months of dominance, and giving them a pass because they couldn't have foreseen his 2016 performance?

 

 

Jepsen's career ERA- was 96 when he came to the Twins.  His ERA- in his 5 months with the Twins was actually slightly better than that, 93.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Giants have done with Posey what we should have done. In the 27-29 range, they have Posey catching just over 100 games and playing first about 40 times (DH in the AL parks). They have Susac in AAA and a backup with a .680 OPS. They could have easily traded either their current backup (.680 OPS) or Susac who is in AAA for a reliever.

The Twins actually did do that with Mauer -- just without Ramos in the equation.

 

Age 27, Mauer only started 107 games at catcher.  Age 29 he only started 72, and age 30 he was on a full season pace of 96 when he got his concussion.  Outside of his "lost season" at age 28, there were no DL stints suppressing those numbers, he just wasn't starting that frequently at catcher anymore after signing his mega-deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm just an armchair analyst, so maybe I'm missing something obvious. But right now I don't see obvious reasons why there was any expectation (other than normal reliever randomness) for Jepsen to not be his usual solid but unspectacular self (3.00-3.50 ERA) and instead be the worst reliever in baseball.

See my numbers above -- Jepsen was basically his solid but unspectacular self overall in his Twins tenure.  It's just that he way over performed for two months, then underperformed for three.  For all we know, he probably would have settled in to that solid but unspectacular groove over his final 3 months if we had given him a chance, but it didn't really matter anymore.

 

Were the Twins really expecting that he'd be so great to finish 2015?  Or did they get a bit lucky in that?  Otherwise, if we go by expectations based on his career numbers, we probably would have lost an extra game or two in the final two months of 2015 (Jepsen not quite so good), and won an extra game or two or three in the first half of 2016 (Jepsen not quite so bad).  Without the luck/randomness/variation, the trade looks even worse. 

[USAFChief]

Personally, I'm GLAD TR traded for help last year.  That's exactly what he SHOULD have done.  

 

"Sequencing," "luck," whatever you want to call it...it doesn't matter.  They were solidly in the postseason hunt last July, and stayed there until the last weekend of the season.  They needed BP help. 

 

Now who they traded for, how much they paid, and if they should have done more are all fair question, IMO. 

 

But I would have been supremely angry had TR done nothing.  Jeesh...

 

People are seriously advocating "they shouldn't have done anything when they WERE in contention, in the hopes they can maybe do something IF they get into contention in a couple years"?

 

Seriously?

 

That's...the opposite of how it should be done.

[DocBauer]

I didn't like the Capps trade because I felt they already had an equivalent pitcher on board and I liked Ramos a lot. Though, to be fair, they did have a pretty good catcher at the time.

 

Like any young prospect, particularly one not in your top 10, there is no guarantee that he will turn out excellent and you will later regret the move. My problem with trading for Jepsen is I just wanted a better arm, sooner, and another addition and not move May. ( Pelfrey to the pen may have accomplished the same thing)

 

Regardless of how good, or not so good, Jepsen ultimately is, I don't think anyone could have predicted him being this poor in 2016. I initially liked having him for a second year, and the lack of any additional moves besides Abad, or relying on Perkins, are not Jepsen 's fault.

[tobi0040]

Personally, I'm GLAD TR traded for help last year. That's exactly what he SHOULD have done.

 

"Sequencing," "luck," whatever you want to call it...it doesn't matter. They were solidly in the postseason hunt last July, and stayed there until the last weekend of the season. They needed BP help.

 

Now who they traded for, how much they paid, and if they should have done more are all fair question, IMO.

 

But I would have been supremely angry had TR done nothing. Jeesh...

 

People are seriously advocating "they shouldn't have done anything when they WERE in contention, in the hopes they can maybe do something IF they get into contention in a couple years"?

 

Seriously?

 

That's...the opposite of how it should be done.

I think the fair criticism is did he go bold enough? Jepsen effectively just replaced the reps when Perkins went down.

[Vanimal46]

I think the fair criticism is did he go bold enough? Jepsen effectively just replaced the reps when Perkins went down.

What other bold options were available last year? I was all on board for a Tulo trade, but that wasn't very realistic. They weren't going to be in the running for Price or Hamels.

 

That leaves... Papelbon? Mark Lowe?

[Jham]

I think there should also be some criticism around succession planning at the catcher position.

 

It should have been apparent that Mauer was not going to be catching at 31/32 with that contract obligation. So the lack of investment in that position is the real issue. That leads folks to defend the signing of Suzuki because we had no other options.

Criticism doesn't end with catcher. But I'm not going to let past mistakes influence making present necessary decisions.

[USAFChief]

 

What other bold options were available last year? I was all on board for a Tulo trade, but that wasn't very realistic. They weren't going to be in the running for Price or Hamels.

That leaves... Papelbon? Mark Lowe?

I think the Twins' biggest single problem is...the idea that a Tulo trade isn't (wasn't) very realistic.

 

Why?

 

Same for a Price or Hamels.  Competing for top level free agents.  etc etc etc

 

Why?  Why can Toronto or Texas pull that off, but it's unrealistic to think the Twins can swim in those waters?

 

I'm not picking on you here, Van, because you're absolutely right...it IS unrealistic.

 

That's the Twins biggest problem, and that's the biggest problem with Terry Ryan.

 

IMO, he dreams small, and worse, he's got most of us thinking that's ok.

[wsnydes]

 

Personally, I'm GLAD TR traded for help last year.  That's exactly what he SHOULD have done.  

 

"Sequencing," "luck," whatever you want to call it...it doesn't matter.  They were solidly in the postseason hunt last July, and stayed there until the last weekend of the season.  They needed BP help. 

 

Now who they traded for, how much they paid, and if they should have done more are all fair question, IMO. 

 

But I would have been supremely angry had TR done nothing.  Jeesh...

 

People are seriously advocating "they shouldn't have done anything when they WERE in contention, in the hopes they can maybe do something IF they get into contention in a couple years"?

 

Seriously?

 

That's...the opposite of how it should be done.

As someone that didn't really want them to do anything, I didn't really get bent out of shape when they did.  I understood the why.  I DID get irritated that they didn't do more.  If you're going to commit to making a run, you need to be fully committed.  That didn't happen, IMO.  That bothered me much more than the fact that they were doing anything at all.  That goes back to my "stuck in neutral" comment earlier in this thread.  That lone move just came off as half-a**ed and that bothers me infinitely more.

 

One of the bigger knocks lately for me on TR is that he appears willing to simply appease the fan base instead of making solid moves to build a winner.  Make sound baseball moves.  Build a real winner and that will appease the fan base.  That's what the fan base wants.  People see through the half hearted stuff. 

Edited July 13, 2016 by wsnydes

[Nick Nelson]

I think some people are missing the core point here.

 

The problem, in my mind, is not that they traded a prospect for a midseason upgrade despite being a very borderline contender -- I commend that.

 

The problem also was not a lopsided transaction. Hu was a fair price for ~1.5 years of Jepsen. 

 

The problem is in the flawed fundamental thinking. Should they have even been seeking ~1.5 years of any (non-elite) reliever, rather than seeking a straight-up two month rental? Teams that are out of the race don't need to be offered much for guys who are set to be free agents. Look at how much less it cost the Twins to acquire Brian Fuentes a few weeks after they got Capps in 2010.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think some people are missing the core point here.

 

The problem, in my mind, is not that they traded a prospect for a midseason upgrade despite being a borderline contender -- I commend that.

 

The problem also was not a lopsided transaction. Hu was a fair price for ~1.5 years of Jepsen. 

 

The problem is in the flawed fundamental thinking. Should they have even been seeking ~1.5 years of any (non-elite) reliever, rather than seeking a straight-up two month rental? Teams that are out of the race don't need to be offered much for guys who are set to be free agents. Look at how much less it cost the Twins to acquire Brian Fuentes a few weeks after they got Capps in 2010.

 

I'm with Nick.....there are disconnects between what seems to be the plan, and how they act. I'm with chief, they dream small (Hicks for Murphy) when could dream big. Remember when they preached throwing strikes, because walks kill, and they didn't teach hitters to walk more? Just a series, imo, of a lack of a clear strategy and execution of said strategy. A disconnect between being unwilling to sign a FA RP for real money and multiple years, but wanting to trade for such a RP. This disconnect, to me, is THE issue for this team. And a lack of going all in or all out, which I view as a similar disconnect.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was only commenting on his unsustainable end of 2015 numbers, I may have misunderstood the discussion people were having.  Specifically this; 

 

"To be fair, I remember reading he had fought a minor injury early in the 2015 season and wasn't healthy until July, when he turned back into a good pitcher (and similar to what he had done in previous seasons)."

 

And was disagreeing with the end of 2015 "healthy" Jepsen was what could be expected as it was career norms... 

To be fair to my post, here were the paragraphs following the one you quoted:

"The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa.

But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher."

 

The Twins got the best two months of Kevin Jepsen possible but there was no reason to expect him to implode the following season. He had a solid track record of something just north of mediocrity.

[TheLeviathan]

Great article Nick.  The real problem here is that Ryan bristles at the notion of spending 15M on the open market but he's willing to deal a solid prospect (and money!  What did we end up giving Jepsen for 1.5 seasons?  7-8 million? It's not like Jepsen didn't end up costing money too) to get a reliever.

 

Is there anyone here that wouldn't give up 6 million dollars for Hu?  No?  Because that's exactly what we did, we decided we'd rather give up Hu to save a handful of millions.

 

That's just so fundamentally flawed as a strategy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think some people are missing the core point here.

 

The problem, in my mind, is not that they traded a prospect for a midseason upgrade despite being a very borderline contender -- I commend that.

 

The problem also was not a lopsided transaction. Hu was a fair price for ~1.5 years of Jepsen. 

 

The problem is in the flawed fundamental thinking. Should they have even been seeking ~1.5 years of any (non-elite) reliever, rather than seeking a straight-up two month rental? Teams that are out of the race don't need to be offered much for guys who are set to be free agents. Look at how much less it cost the Twins to acquire Brian Fuentes a few weeks after they got Capps in 2010.

And it's a great point. We often talk about how volatile relievers are (excepting the elite guys) and use that as leverage to avoid signing anyone to more than a two year contract (and often, no more than one year). Ryan is notorious for offering one year deals to relievers only to have them reject the offer.

 

But Ryan didn't only trade for the value of 1.5 seasons of Jepsen, he lauded the move because "he'll be here next year, too".

 

Does. Not. Compute.