Article: Miguel Sano's Defensive Future

[beckmt]

 

That's my point, which seems to be your point from earlier.  The rebuild needed to come 4 years earlier.  They could have unloaded veterans to acquire younger talent.  Instead, they continued to sign decline phase vets and augment them with average prospects from a barren farm system.  That simply prolonged the middling of this squad and delayed the inevitable.  If they would have simply blown things up earlier, we may not be at this point now.  They've never actually started a rebuild.  They're still not in the midst of a rebuild, TR is trying to contend.  His moves and lack thereof show it.  His in-season moves and roster management still show it.  The managers distribution of playing time shows it.  The words that come out of their mouths show it.  None of the guys in charge understand where they sit.  None of them appear committed to right the ship.  Back to back 90+ loss seasons doesn't trigger a rebuild and five of six seasons 90+ losses doesn't, how am I as a paying fan supposed to believe that a 100+ loss season will be any different?  The FO certainly doesn't give me any hope that such a thing is understood by them.  

 

Most of the Twins players 4 years ago had less value than the Twins players have now.  You cannot sell if there are no buyers.

[jimmer]

Took Ryan 7-8 years to rebuild last time.  Mark your 2020 calendars people! 

 

Then again, many people with seemingly unlimited faith in Ryan's ability and moves were pretty sure that, after last year's record, the rebuilding was practically done and this year the younin's would sweep in and that would be the start of something awesome. Ryan got us there early, see he can do it. Yeah, unfortunately (and predictably), not so much.

Edited June 21, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

At that time they were a long ways away, and no pitching help in sight.  Gibson would be a fourth or fifth starter on most good clubs unless you were in the Royal mode of cheap starters and a lights out bullpen.

To be competitive the Twins would have to have bought 3 front line starters.  Bill Smith lost his job over recommending the Twins up payroll into the $130 million range.  Ryan did not have that budget.   The difference was buying midrange starters, rather than ace or aces.  Twins will have to develop those, and they may be coming, but results are still out and it may be two years before we know how successful this was.

 

I'm still not understanding your argument.  Ryan couldn't rebuild because he didn't have the budget or front line starting pitchers?  You rebuild by trading off mediocre veterans, not doubling down and signing more.  He chose not to rebuild - he chose to attempt to stay semi competitive.  The results speak for themselves

[troyhobbs]

 

I can't agree that last year upped expectations.  They overachieved with what they had, added virtually nothing and played it off as "we're going to contend."  It was a sell job that many around here saw right through.  Last season was possibly the worst thing that could have happened.  It made the FO complacent.  This club should have been in full rebuild mode 4 years ago and wasn't.  

Ya,it was the month of May and Sano carrying the team on his back the 2nd half of the season that made the difference, they were clearly not as close to being good as their record indicated last season. Not that I would've predicted they'd be this bad but plenty of folks were leery about last season's "success."

[beckmt]

 

Ya,it was the month of May and Sano carrying the team on his back the 2nd half of the season that made the difference, they were clearly not as close to being good as their record indicated last season. Not that I would've predicted they'd be this bad but plenty of folks were leery about last season's "success."

If you read the number of victories the Twins expected this year, most publications (except Fangraphs which had the Twins at 72) where between 78-85.  That is the raised expectations.

[wsnydes]

 

Most of the Twins players 4 years ago had less value than the Twins players have now.  You cannot sell if there are no buyers.

Included on the 2012 Twins roster that finished 5th in the ALC:

Justin Morneau

Josh Willingham

Denard Span

Ryan Doumit

Francisco Liriano

Brian Duensing

Glen Perkins

Matt Capps

 

Admittedly, those aren't all great names.  Some would have been sell low.  Some were traded later including Ben Revere who was on the team, but I didn't include in this list.  They certainly could have been unloaded to replenish a lagging farm system.

[Jgcarew]

The experiment was ploof at 3rd. The hope was that he'd make himself trade bait worthy of a return. I'm sure TR's hope was to get something for ploof. His plan was to move ploof out and Sano to 3rd. He'll follow that same plan. And settle for no return. His only mistake was in not trading plouffe years ago, when there was value in doing so

[SwainZag]

 

Included on the 2012 Twins roster that finished 5th in the ALC:

Justin Morneau

Josh Willingham

Denard Span

Ryan Doumit

Francisco Liriano

Brian Duensing

Glen Perkins

Matt Capps

 

Admittedly, those aren't all great names.  Some would have been sell low.  Some were traded later including Ben Revere who was on the team, but I didn't include in this list.  They certainly could have been unloaded to replenish a lagging farm system.

 

Liriano was traded during the season, Span was traded right after the season.  Capps never pitched in the majors after the 2012 season, that should show you his value.  Duensing never had any value and 2012 could be considered his worst as a pro.

 

That leaves Morneau, who was still a former shell of himself making $14M.  Josh Willingham who signed the richest FA contract in team history before the season, which kinda meant he wasn't going anywhere.   Doumit, a poor catching, poor fielding 31 year old OF who at best probably would have netted a C prospect.  The only player who probably would have fetched anything was Perkins, who was cheap and just coming into his own in 2012.  He had good numbers at the trade deadline and had just started closing games.  

 

It's fun to look at names and scoff at the front office for not "loading up" on prospects for those big names, but in reality, there wasn't much there.  

[wsnydes]

 

Liriano was traded during the season, Span was traded right after the season.  Capps never pitched in the majors after the 2012 season, that should show you his value.  Duensing never had any value and 2012 could be considered his worst as a pro.

 

That leaves Morneau, who was still a former shell of himself making $14M.  Josh Willingham who signed the richest FA contract in team history before the season, which kinda meant he wasn't going anywhere.   Doumit, a poor catching, poor fielding 31 year old OF who at best probably would have netted a C prospect.  The only player who probably would have fetched anything was Perkins, who was cheap and just coming into his own in 2012.  He had good numbers at the trade deadline and had just started closing games.  

 

It's fun to look at names and scoff at the front office for not "loading up" on prospects for those big names, but in reality, there wasn't much there.  

I don't disagree with any of what you said, but to say that there was nothing there simply isn't correct.  Also, I said that the vets could have been unloaded, not that the Twins would load up on prospects.  My initial point is that in order to rebuild, you have to start somewhere.  This team still hasn't.  2012 was the second consecutive 90+ loss season.  That was the time to unload anything that could be dealt even if its a bag of balls.  If you have eat salary to do it, so be it.  Get what you can with what you do have.

Edited June 21, 2016 by wsnydes

[wsnydes]

 

Sano comes back to play 3B/DH and Rosario plays himself backs to the majors.  Both  happen within the next 2 weeks.  Who goes?  I would vote for Santana to DFA ( and then to AAA when no team wants him) and Park to AAA, with Plouffe playing DH/!B/3B until he can be traded, but Molitor's unhealthy man crush on Santana makes that seem unlikely to me. More likely: trade of either Plouffe or Nunez and Park to AAA. What do you guys think?

I wouldn't even bring Santana back, they have other options to fit his role that would likely be better at it.  Sano can DH until Plouffe is dealt.  I'd deal Nunez and Dozier as well.  I don't really think Park would benefit from being sent down, but wouldn't be up in arms if he did.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

It's fun to look at names and scoff at the front office for not "loading up" on prospects for those big names, but in reality, there wasn't much there.  

 

So just throw up your hands and say "Oh well!" then?  That has not exactly worked.  

 

Willingham, Perkins and Doumit absolutely could've been traded.  

[beckmt]

 

Included on the 2012 Twins roster that finished 5th in the ALC:

Justin Morneau

Josh Willingham

Denard Span

Ryan Doumit

Francisco Liriano

Brian Duensing

Glen Perkins

Matt Capps

 

Admittedly, those aren't all great names.  Some would have been sell low.  Some were traded later including Ben Revere who was on the team, but I didn't include in this list.  They certainly could have been unloaded to replenish a lagging farm system.

Liriano netted Escobar, so was a win or a wash, Span netted Meyer, looks like this may not work out, but it looked OK at the time.  Willingham had one great year and was expected to be a placeholder until the younger player arrived.  Outside of Morneau and Perkins who was local, rest were worth very little.  Willingham was probably an error not to trade, but he was the only Twins player hitting the ball, it would have made it worse than it was.  You seen to forget the fans who will abandon the team until they win again, except it would have started years earlier.  So why not mention, just let Mauer walk and reallocate that money elsewhere. Very 20/20 hindsight, subjective comments.

[wsnydes]

 

So just throw up your hands and say "Oh well!" then?  That has not exactly worked.  

 

Willingham, Perkins and Doumit absolutely could've been traded.  

I think Morneau could have too.  The shell of him former self still played in 134 games, swatted 19 HRs with 77 RBI and a .773 OPS.  MVP numbers?  No, but certainly marketable.  He had a similar 2013.  The Twins got Alex Presley for him when they did finally move him.

Edited June 21, 2016 by wsnydes

[alarp33]

 

 You seen to forget the fans who will abandon the team until they win again, except it would have started years earlier.  

 

Right - so they should've tried winning again as soon as possible (by rebuilding, rather than doing nothing).  We're now in the 5th season of TR 2.0, and they are on pace to lose 112 games. 

Edited June 21, 2016 by alarp33

[tobi0040]

Liriano netted Escobar, so was a win or a wash, Span netted Meyer, looks like this may not work out, but it looked OK at the time.  Willingham had one great year and was expected to be a placeholder until the younger player arrived.  Outside of Morneau and Perkins who was local, rest were worth very little.  Willingham was probably an error not to trade, but he was the only Twins player hitting the ball, it would have made it worse than it was.  You seen to forget the fans who will abandon the team until they win again, except it would have started years earlier.  So why not mention, just let Mauer walk and reallocate that money elsewhere. Very 20/20 hindsight, subjective comments.

The only possible TR defense here is that he may have felt pressure from ownership to not completely rip the team apart and start over.

 

Personally though, given his tendancies over the years. The fact that he just can't help himself from the dumpster, signing vets over going young, over-valuing defense, signing #5 starters, etc. I don't think this was likely the case. If it was it played a very minor role.

[wsnydes]

 

Liriano netted Escobar, so was a win or a wash, Span netted Meyer, looks like this may not work out, but it looked OK at the time.  Willingham had one great year and was expected to be a placeholder until the younger player arrived.  Outside of Morneau and Perkins who was local, rest were worth very little.  Willingham was probably an error not to trade, but he was the only Twins player hitting the ball, it would have made it worse than it was.  You seen to forget the fans who will abandon the team until they win again, except it would have started years earlier.  So why not mention, just let Mauer walk and reallocate that money elsewhere. Very 20/20 hindsight, subjective comments.

So you'd DFA Mauer and let him leave for nothing?!

 

I sat through those years in Section 102 at Target Field.  Patiently, I might add.  Just as I do this season.  Was I happy about it then?  No.  Did I keep going to games?  Yes.  Why?  I'm not sure anymore.  That loyalty certainly isn't being repaid.  I'm well aware of what a fan base does in losing seasons.  Being a season ticket holder through four straight 90+ loss season tends to wear a guy out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There was no farm system to rebuild from 4 years ago.  That was the legacy of the Bill Smith era.  (with Gardy's help).  It has taken this long and the Twins have been forced with half measures to keep the fan base as much as they have.  It will be interesting to see how many players are moved this trading deadline and I (like most) will be disappointed if it is less than 4).

 

Besides Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Gibson, and others, you mean, right?

[Mike Sixel]

 

At that time they were a long ways away, and no pitching help in sight.  Gibson would be a fourth or fifth starter on most good clubs unless you were in the Royal mode of cheap starters and a lights out bullpen.

To be competitive the Twins would have to have bought 3 front line starters.  Bill Smith lost his job over recommending the Twins up payroll into the $130 million range.  Ryan did not have that budget.   The difference was buying midrange starters, rather than ace or aces.  Twins will have to develop those, and they may be coming, but results are still out and it may be two years before we know how successful this was.

 

If there were no young players close (or in the majors)....and it takes 4 years to develop......and Smith was in charge for less time than that.....who was the GM when those young players should have been close, that had a farm system with nothing to show for it?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Liriano was traded during the season, Span was traded right after the season.  Capps never pitched in the majors after the 2012 season, that should show you his value.  Duensing never had any value and 2012 could be considered his worst as a pro.

 

That leaves Morneau, who was still a former shell of himself making $14M.  Josh Willingham who signed the richest FA contract in team history before the season, which kinda meant he wasn't going anywhere.   Doumit, a poor catching, poor fielding 31 year old OF who at best probably would have netted a C prospect.  The only player who probably would have fetched anything was Perkins, who was cheap and just coming into his own in 2012.  He had good numbers at the trade deadline and had just started closing games.  

 

It's fun to look at names and scoff at the front office for not "loading up" on prospects for those big names, but in reality, there wasn't much there.  

 

Who ran the FO when they "built" that team of players that wasn't there to trade? Not Smith.....he inherited that team.

[wsnydes]

 

The only possible TR defense here is that he may have felt pressure from ownership to not completely rip the team apart and start over.

Personally though, given his tendancies over the years. The fact that he just can't help himself from the dumpster, signing vets over going young, over-valuing defense, signing #5 starters, etc. I don't think this was likely the case. If it was it played a very minor role.

He has a tendency to be sentimental with long term Twins.  That's coupled with holding onto signees too long as well.  Not a great combination.

[SwainZag]

 

Who ran the FO when they "built" that team of players that wasn't there to trade? Not Smith.....he inherited that team.

 

I'm not trying to place blame on anyone, I am just saying looking at the 2012 team there wasn't a treasure trove of players that would bring back a net of prospects.  

 

No one could have predicted the sheer amount of injuries which directly led to regression and career lows by so many players to the 2011 team.  3 players played in at least 100 games.  2012 was a direct fallout of the perfect storm that was 2011.  If people need to find solace in blaming Smith, Ryan or whoever else in the front office go for it.  

Realistically how much would have Doumit, Perkins and Willingham netted the Twins in trades in 2012? I have no idea how to assess Josh's value.  A 33 year old poor fielding OF having a career year in the 1st year of a $21M dollar deal.  Maybe a Top 200 prospect if the right team was out there? I really don't think at the time Doumit or Perkins bring back much.  But to each their own.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not trying to place blame on anyone, I am just saying looking at the 2012 team there wasn't a treasure trove of players that would bring back a net of prospects.  

 

No one could have predicted the sheer amount of injuries which directly led to regression and career lows by so many players to the 2011 team.  3 players played in at least 100 games.  2012 was a direct fallout of the perfect storm that was 2011.  If people need to find solace in blaming Smith, Ryan or whoever else in the front office go for it.  

Realistically how much would have Doumit, Perkins and Willingham netted the Twins in trades in 2012? I have no idea how to assess Josh's value.  A 33 year old poor fielding OF having a career year in the 1st year of a $21M dollar deal.  Maybe a Top 200 prospect if the right team was out there? I really don't think at the time Doumit or Perkins bring back much.  But to each their own.

 

Ah, got it......it seemed like people were blaming Smith for their not being trade-able assets when he was gone....that would be almost impossible to be his fault.....

 

I think Perkins would have netted something nice. That's the one that sticks in my craw*

 

* not that I know the etymology of that one....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well played.

 

On a related note, I imagine that Buxtion and his agent are thrilled beyond words that Byron will no longer be patrolling center field next to a guy whose name probably translates in some language to "charging bison".

In both the Dominican (Sano) and Venezuelan (Arcia) dialects, no less.

[alarp33]

 

 

Realistically how much would have Doumit, Perkins and Willingham netted the Twins in trades in 2012? I have no idea how to assess Josh's value.  A 33 year old poor fielding OF having a career year in the 1st year of a $21M dollar deal.  Maybe a Top 200 prospect if the right team was out there? I really don't think at the time Doumit or Perkins bring back much.  But to each their own.

 

Realistically how much were Doumit, Perkins, Willingham going to help the Twins make the playoffs in the future I think is also a worthwhile question.  Not much at all? then trade them for the best possible offer.  

 

And you don't think a 30 year old all star closer with multiple years of team control had value?  I would argue he had more value than anyone but Zach Greinke of those who were dealt at the 2012 deadline

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Willingham had one great year and was expected to be a placeholder until the younger player arrived.

Uh, that is kinda the point of the criticism. The Twins were stockpiling placeholders, and adding/extending more.

[SwainZag]

 

Realistically how much were Doumit, Perkins, Willingham going to help the Twins make the playoffs in the future I think is also a worthwhile question.  Not much at all? then trade them for the best possible offer.  

 

And you don't think a 30 year old all star closer with multiple years of team control had value?  I would argue he had more value than anyone but Zach Greinke of those who were dealt at the 2012 deadline

 

During the 2012 season Perkins hadn't reached all star game, he wasn't even put in the closers role until mid-July of 2012. 

[wsnydes]

 

During the 2012 season Perkins hadn't reached all star game, he wasn't even put in the closers role until mid-July of 2012. 

While that could limit his value, it's not as though a team in need of a late innings guy wouldn't have dealt for him.  

 

Clearly his value between then and now is a lot of hindsight.  But at the same time, that is what the FO guys are paid to foresee and account for.

[alarp33]

 

During the 2012 season Perkins hadn't reached all star game, he wasn't even put in the closers role until mid-July of 2012. 

 

Sorry, mixing up deadlines.  Replace 2012 with 2013.  The rest of the post remains unchanged, still multiple years of team control

Edited June 21, 2016 by alarp33

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't disagree with any of what you said, but to say that there was nothing there simply isn't correct.  Also, I said that the vets could have been unloaded, not that the Twins would load up on prospects.  My initial point is that in order to rebuild, you have to start somewhere.  This team still hasn't.  2012 was the second consecutive 90+ loss season.  That was the time to unload anything that could be dealt even if its a bag of balls.  If you have eat salary to do it, so be it.  Get what you can with what you do have.

 

The point is that most of the vets couldn't be unloaded, and the ones that were able to be were traded.  My only beef with Ryan's rebuild during that timeframe is not going after lottery tickets and stocking his minors with AAAA type guys.  He did that a bit with guys like Colabello.  The high minors were pretty baren of talent, and the major league level was awful to say the least.  At that point, I'm loading up with guys with a former track record coming off of injury.  In other words, go get the Feldman and Pelfrey's of the world and not the Kevin Correias.  Yeah, some of those guys flame out, which is what you have your AAAA guys for, and the guys that succeed get flipped for talent at the deadline... and that's where the AAAA guys come in.  If you're lucky, one of those AAAA guys figures it out and you have more trade bait or a core piece... Rinse and repeat until the kids are ready.

[wsnydes]

 

The point is that most of the vets couldn't be unloaded, and the ones that were able to be were traded.  My only beef with Ryan's rebuild during that timeframe is not going after lottery tickets and stocking his minors with AAAA type guys.  He did that a bit with guys like Colabello.  The high minors were pretty baren of talent, and the major league level was awful to say the least.  At that point, I'm loading up with guys with a former track record coming off of injury.  In other words, go get the Feldman and Pelfrey's of the world and not the Kevin Correias.  Yeah, some of those guys flame out, which is what you have your AAAA guys for, and the guys that succeed get flipped for talent at the deadline... and that's where the AAAA guys come in.  If you're lucky, one of those AAAA guys figures it out and you have more trade bait or a core piece... Rinse and repeat until the kids are ready.

That approach is at least a rebuilding effort of sorts.  It's still bringing in decline stage veterans, but they're at least cheap.  Kevin Correia's of the world never made much sense.  Signing a bunch of AAAA type guys could have at least bridged the gap and possibly paid off higher returns over what they ended up doing.  

 

My criticism is aimed at the efforts made to basically maintain a mediocre level rather than try to go young and start fresh.  I have a hard time believing that Morneau and Perkins couldn't have been dealt.  Willingham I can agree with, but if the team ate some of his salary he may have been.  

 

Either way, my broader point has always been that this team didn't then and still hasn't now ever started a true rebuilding.