Article: Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience

[mazeville]

 

Danny Santana has been the worst player in baseball since the start of 2015 by WAR, and is hitting .226/.254/.305 in that time frame.  

 

Yes he has. Not disagreeing. But he's young and it's one year. I'm making the same argument about Arcia. Give both a shot as part-time players this year, see what you have, and then make decisions in the offseason. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

One right decision at a time, no matter how long it takes. We need outfielders who can field AND hit. Not field or hit, not hit or field. We've seen that and done that too much. Kepler is a move in the right direction. He has speed and agility. He's good with the glove. He's a natural on defense. And he can hit. Dump those who can't play both ways and build a roster. Kepler's your cornerstone.

[alarp33]

 

Yes he has. Not disagreeing. But he's young and it's one year. I'm making the same argument about Arcia. Give both a shot as part-time players this year, see what you have, and then make decisions in the offseason. 

 

2 years. His wRC+ since the start of 2015 is 48. And he's a bad defender

[Otto von Ballpark]

All that said, I have thought for some time that Arcia might wind up a left-handed hitting version of Dayan Viciedo.  I'm not that upset that it has come to this, although it would have been nice to give him a bit better priority the past year and a half.

[LaBombo]

 

 I'm not that upset that it has come to this, although it would have been nice to give him a bit better priority the past year and a half.

Same for me, for the most part.

 

Put another way: it seems that it's not subtracting an Arcia that's hurting the Twins as much as the lack of a rational, repeatable math that can reliably tell the Twins that subtracting Arcia is the right answer.

Edited June 20, 2016 by LaBombo

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Nick wrote a thoughtful, well-written article that raises some valid points. Arcia is still a very one-dimensional player. He hasn't done much in his past two (extremely limited) looks in the bigs. And he's often been plagued by absolutely ridiculous hair styles (ok, maybe Nick didn't mention that one).

 

 

The hair has been a problem this season, but at least he's still trying. Mauer seems to have just given up. Remember this guy?

 

http://cdn29.us1.fansshare.com/images/joemauer/joe-mauer-mn-twins-mlb-hair-646035237.jpg

 

Frickin' glorious!

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

So Trevor Plouffe is going to be benched immediately when Sano comes back? Or is he going to be traded? I'm not very optimistic that either of those will happen anytime soon.

If Ryan can trade Plouffe to the Mets now, he should do it and take the low level fringe prospect(s) but with TR track record, I'd guess an extension is just as likely...

 

Worst thing that happened to the Twins was the 2015 season, looks like it might have set back the building model back a few years just to "win now" and hope to get a wildcard which didn't happen.

[mazeville]

 

2 years. His wRC+ since the start of 2015 is 48. And he's a bad defender

 

Two years but that's less than a full season - 120 games -- and after a rookie season in which he had a 3.9 WAR.

 

Again, not arguing in favor of him playing over Arcia or even Buxton or Kepler. But I have no problem with the Twins finding a way to keep him on the roster this year and get him some playing time to see if he can make improvements. He's still young. 

 

I would have much, much rather keep Arcia than Santana. But they're both young and the Twins should be looking to emphasize playing time for those guys.

[mazeville]

 

If Ryan can trade Plouffe to the Mets now, he should do it and take the low level fringe prospect(s) but with TR track record, I'd guess an extension is just as likely...

 

Worst thing that happened to the Twins was the 2015 season, looks like it might have set back the building model back a few years just to "win now" and hope to get a wildcard which didn't happen.

 

Why would the Mets trade anything at all for a third baseman who is getting paid $7 million to have an OPS of .626 and a Danny Santana-like WAR of -0.6? They wouldn't. Not when someone like Danny Valencia is on the block. 

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

One right decision at a time, no matter how long it takes. We need outfielders who can field AND hit. Not field or hit, not hit or field. We've seen that and done that too much. Kepler is a move in the right direction. He has speed and agility. He's good with the glove. He's a natural on defense. And he can hit. Dump those who can't play both ways and build a roster. Kepler's your cornerstone.

 

Somebody is making sense on the internet.

[alarp33]

 

Two years but that's less than a full season - 120 games -- and after a rookie season in which he had a 3.9 WAR.

 

Again, not arguing in favor of him playing over Arcia or even Buxton or Kepler. But I have no problem with the Twins finding a way to keep him on the roster this year and get him some playing time to see if he can make improvements. He's still young. 

 

I would have much, much rather keep Arcia than Santana. But they're both young and the Twins should be looking to emphasize playing time for those guys.

 

I guess overall I agree with your philosophy of playing a younger guy to see what you've got.  But in regards to Santana, I've seen plenty.  He's not a Major League caliber player in any facet of the game. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Why would the Mets trade anything at all for a third baseman who is getting paid $7 million to have an OPS of .626 and a Danny Santana-like WAR of -0.6? They wouldn't. Not when someone like Danny Valencia is on the block. 

Only thing I can say is that Beane will ask for more for the ex-Twin Valencia who looks like he actually started to put all those skills together since joining Oakland last year.  Just saying if the Twins can find anyone to take Dozier and/or Plouffe they should do it and take the little return.

[mazeville]

 

Only thing I can say is that Beane will ask for more for the ex-Twin Valencia who looks like he actually started to put all those skills together since joining Oakland last year.  Just saying if the Twins can find anyone to take Dozier and/or Plouffe they should do it and take the little return.

 

He's rapidly becoming a non-tender candidate given his price tag. Twins should have absolutely traded him in the offseason. 

[spinowner]

 

 I would have sent down Kepler to give Arcia a 2 or 3 week trial to save his job.  But I'm not going to say he was mismanaged.

I think not giving Arcia a 2 or 3 week trial is the definition of mismanaging him.

[Thrylos]

 

 

That's a 40 percent K-rate. Guys who are above 40 percent do not belong in the majors.

 

 

I am glad that you are advocating that Buxton (42% K-rate, higher than Arcia, and with options left,) should have been the one demoted instead of Arcia DFA'd...

 

Cannot excuse the inexcusable.  Ryan had options.

[spinowner]

 

This team ain't winning anything this year. The entire focus should be on young players. Period. 

Not period. Exclamation point.

[Jham]

 

I think not giving Arcia a 2 or 3 week trial is the definition of mismanaging him.

See, I can say I have a different opinion or stance without accusing those with opposing views of mismanagement.  Realistically, what could Arcia have shown in those few weeks that would have saved him from a DFA?  He may have bought a few more weeks, but in all likelihood, it would have delayed the inevitable.  Should the Twins have waited out Valencia's 5 bad years for his less than 1 full good year?  Or should we have just signed him as a cheap FA last off season if we were afraid we'd lost something great.  

I sense a lot of the frustration is misguided.  We're all frustrated by seeing all these players we're excited about fail.  I think that's what made Sano's run last season so much fun.  But the failure of the prospects seems to be poor preparation by the team and players to get them ready for MLB action.  Kepler cited crowd noise for his early struggles.  Crowd noise.  I've never heard that before, and I wonder how someone could come to the Show and be surprised by crowd noise unless we're failing in preparing our players, veterans and prospects alike.  Was Arcia mismanaged?  Probably.  But more like gradually over the last 3-4 seasons and off seasons.

[TKGuy]

I agree, he is basically a DH and we have plenty of those. He should not be taking at bats away from Kepler or Sano (now I'm hoping Sano heads back to 3b), but he shouldn't be taking away from Rosario when he gets back. Grossman is only 26 also

[frightwig]

 

Arcia IS a bench/part-time player. When you don't play defense, can't run, and can't hit LH pitchers, that's the way it is.

 

Note that these were some of the knocks against Ortiz when the Twins let him go, too. He was an oft-injured, lumbering DH who couldn't hit lefties.

 

I'm not a huge Arcia believer, but he does have an impressive track record at the plate, prior to last year. Even this season, he has a respectable walk rate and ISO. Given that the Twins have had no shot at the playoffs since April, their only priority should be giving playing time to younger players who may help the team win in 2017 and beyond. That probably doesn't include Danny Santana. (Given Rosario's walk rates and spotty record above High A, I doubt that he'll be a big part of the Twins future, either, but I can understand if he gets another shot later this season.)

 

Before cutting bait on Arcia, you'd think that they would give him at least a few months of everyday action. Platoon him with Park, let Arcia play corner OF on some days when facing a lefty starter (for now, his defense doesn't really matter), and tap him to pinch-hit regularly. They could have done this. They don't really need Santana, despite Terry Ryan's ridiculous claim to the contrary, especially if Kepler remains on the team. They don't need an 8th reliever. Terry Ryan could send down Park, if that helped clear playing time while allowing Park to work out some problems, or he could get to work on unloading Plouffe, already. (Yeah, Plouffe's value is low, but the ship has sailed on selling high there--Ryan will just have to unload him, now.) Cutting Arcia because of some roster crunch is just front office B.S. They didn't have to cut him loose. They just lost interest in developing him. Considering the state of the club, that's a real shame.

[spinowner]

 

See, I can say I have a different opinion or stance without accusing those with opposing views of mismanagement.  Realistically, what could Arcia have shown in those few weeks that would have saved him from a DFA?  He may have bought a few more weeks, but in all likelihood, it would have delayed the inevitable.  Should the Twins have waited out Valencia's 5 bad years for his less than 1 full good year?  Or should we have just signed him as a cheap FA last off season if we were afraid we'd lost something great.  

I sense a lot of the frustration is misguided.  We're all frustrated by seeing all these players we're excited about fail.  I think that's what made Sano's run last season so much fun.  But the failure of the prospects seems to be poor preparation by the team and players to get them ready for MLB action.  Kepler cited crowd noise for his early struggles.  Crowd noise.  I've never heard that before, and I wonder how someone could come to the Show and be surprised by crowd noise unless we're failing in preparing our players, veterans and prospects alike.  Was Arcia mismanaged?  Probably.  But more like gradually over the last 3-4 seasons and off seasons.

I agree with the final point that the mismanagement was not confined to the last 2-3 weeks, but the Twins had no reason not to play him 6 times a week beginning in early May. That's when TR and PM should have switched their focus away from the team's W-L record to assessment and development of younger players. Arcia has 30-HR potential. That and the fact that he was out of options should have made him the team's first priority. Other players on the 25-man deemed in need of playing time could have gotten it at AAA if need be. And if he showed no signs of improvement after that, then and only then should the DFA hammer have come down.

[Platoon]

There are a lot of things said here that are correct about Arcia. And I imagine some that aren't. But this is irrefutable. He has not been handled like the other players have been. Last year when he went to Rochester Ryan announced the suddenly new Injury Recovery Protocal. (IRP). Under the IRP players sent our for rehab not only would have to prove they are healthy, they would have to produce before they were returned to the AAAA team. For whatever reason the IRP was instituted, analyzed, and discarded almost immediately. It must have been, since no other player was ever subjected to it. Apparently Arcias inclusion was not only exclusive, it was forgotten, as he was. When you don't treat your players with consistency, you end up with what the Twins appear to have. Unmotivated, and at times virtually selfish play. Brought on by the knowledge that for some there are no consequences.

[scottz]

 

One right decision at a time, no matter how long it takes. We need outfielders who can field AND hit. Not field or hit, not hit or field. We've seen that and done that too much. Kepler is a move in the right direction. He has speed and agility. He's good with the glove. He's a natural on defense. And he can hit. Dump those who can't play both ways and build a roster. Kepler's your cornerstone.

I agree. We need to dump Sano from the outfield immediately. While he's on the DL. Tell him he's playing 3rd now so his hamstring can soak in the good news and heal up properly. Tell Plouffe he'll make a great cheerleader.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I sense a lot of the frustration is misguided.  We're all frustrated by seeing all these players we're excited about fail.  I think that's what made Sano's run last season so much fun.  But the failure of the prospects seems to be poor preparation by the team and players to get them ready for MLB action.  Kepler cited crowd noise for his early struggles.  Crowd noise.  I've never heard that before, and I wonder how someone could come to the Show and be surprised by crowd noise unless we're failing in preparing our players, veterans and prospects alike.  Was Arcia mismanaged?  Probably.  But more like gradually over the last 3-4 seasons and off seasons.

 

Crowd noise isn't surprising, and I'm not sure you can do much about it.  Those minor league stadiums aren't going to see attendance over 5k very often, and as bad as the Twins have been, that's still quite a bit less than what shows up at TF, and at road games it's worse.  You can be told about that one till the cows come home, it won't prepare you for hearing the real thing.

 

But back to the point, I am fairly convinced that the Twins have issues in developing talent.  Exactly what I'm not sure.  Identifying it seems to be something they can do well, and even developing it through the minors seems like it works too... but something happens when a guy is first called up or a failure to adjust if he's had some success.  I'd love to know where the Twins sit in those categories in respect to league average.  I have to think they are below average there.

[old nurse]

 

See, I can say I have a different opinion or stance without accusing those with opposing views of mismanagement.  Realistically, what could Arcia have shown in those few weeks that would have saved him from a DFA?  He may have bought a few more weeks, but in all likelihood, it would have delayed the inevitable.  Should the Twins have waited out Valencia's 5 bad years for his less than 1 full good year?  Or should we have just signed him as a cheap FA last off season if we were afraid we'd lost something great.  

I sense a lot of the frustration is misguided.  We're all frustrated by seeing all these players we're excited about fail.  I think that's what made Sano's run last season so much fun.  But the failure of the prospects seems to be poor preparation by the team and players to get them ready for MLB action.  Kepler cited crowd noise for his early struggles.  Crowd noise.  I've never heard that before, and I wonder how someone could come to the Show and be surprised by crowd noise unless we're failing in preparing our players, veterans and prospects alike.  Was Arcia mismanaged?  Probably.  But more like gradually over the last 3-4 seasons and off seasons.

I think the Twins should have hung on to Moylan for 12 years , waiting for him to be good.  They should have had Liam Hendriks doing Pilates sooner and had his wife doing Pilates with the rest of the mediocre starters.  They should have signed Manny Ramirez to mentor Ortiz. Hung on to RA Dickey,, I mean, how good would it have been to have Syndergaard and d'Arnaud?

[howieramone2]

 

All the vitriol in this thread is a proxy argument over the complete lack any kind of player development plan by TR over the last 3 years.
We've had rookies and veterans alike have great seasons either unsupported by past performances or advanced metrics. And TR has been like a child with a shiny toy pla ed in front of him

Sano, Buxton, and Kepler. Keep watching!

[spinowner]

 

Tell Plouffe he'll make a great cheerleader.

For the Mets.

[S.]

 

Sano. Keep watching!

Yeah, that plan to move him to the outfield because we have superstar Trevor Plouffe at 3rd sure worked out swimmingly. 

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, that plan to move him to the outfield because we have superstar Trevor Plouffe at 3rd sure worked out swimmingly. 

Or was the real problem getting Park because, goodness forbid, Sano stay a DH since he's likely a defensive detriment no matter what position he plays.

 

In any event, Our RF situation was a easily predictably bad decision.  It was never going to end up being a smart or truly defensible decision (no matter how hard some tried).

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[SwainZag]

There's been a lot of comparing of Santana to Arcia, but no one has pointed out that DanSan has played 32 of his 35 starts this season in CF.  Santana is not taking AB away from Arcia, at least not this season.  

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Lots of good contributions to catch up on overnight (the tyranny of time zones). A couple of observations:

 

Nick suggests Molitor has gone out of his way to give Arcia a platoon advantage by ensuring 82% of his at bats were against RHP. Given Mauer (77%), Plouffe (78%), Dozier (81%) and Sano (85%) are all in the same ballpark, it looks more like a normal distribution of L/R opposing pitchers than any supportive plan to make the most of a platoon on Molitor's part.

 

If they had really wanted to make "advantageous" use of Arcia, maybe give him more than back to back games to get his timing right/feel comfortable at the plate and in the field. Only 3 times this season did Arcia get more than 2 games in a row:

 

April 15-20: 6 games .967 OPS 2 HR

April 25-29: 4 games .563 OPS 1 HR

May 4-10: 5 games .917 OPS 1 HR

 

There looks to be at least some basis for giving the guy a run of games instead of jerking him around.

 

Last season was a strange one for Arcia. He hit OK to begin the season without really impressing, before the injury/rehab stint. And he absolutely sucked for the last two months of the season at AAA.

 

But he had destroyed AAA in 2013 (1.020 OPS) and 2014 (.962 OPS) and maybe felt he had nothing more to prove there. At the All-Star break he had just hit his 7th HR in 11 games and had an OPS of .840. If any other prospect with that AAA track record had gone on a similar run, the call-up noise would have been deafening.

 

I don't know what caused the post all-star break slump for Arcia last year (injury? attitude?) but being disillusioned is somewhat understandable, if not to be condoned.  To his credit, he seemed to fix up his approach over the winter and by all accounts dedicated himself well in the offseason.  I wouldn't blame him for feeling he has held up his end of the bargain and been let down by management.