Article: Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience

[Jham]

 

His one dimension is one more than Danny Santana has.  

Well, Arcia isn't pinch running for anyone late in a game, can't come in and put down a bunt in the bottom of the tenth, and isn't nearly as versatile as Santana on D.  If I'm using my bench to just fill in here and there, I'll take Santana over the pinch-hitting option of Arcia.  Both Arcia and Santana had fluke years, apparently.  For some reason Arcia is seen as more likely to get back to those levels than Santana.  I like Arcia.  I wish we could have kept him.  I would have sent down Kepler to give Arcia a 2 or 3 week trial to save his job.  But I'm not going to say he was mismanaged.  The guy is a little too up and down, and maybe he'll settle down like Gogo did, but chances are he'll always be a jumpy, nervous hitter who can't hit an elevated fastball.

[mdonaghue]

I just don't buy that "he was out of time" argument.  I'm not "Mr Sabremetrics" but here's what I see:

 

Arcia

• (age 25):  967 career plate appearances, .240 Batting Average;  .303 on-base percentage;  .429 slugging;  .732 OPS
•  walked 68 times, struck out 305 times
•  played weak defense in right field
• waived by his team at age 25

Here's another player

•  (age 23):  928 career plate appearances, .236 Batting Average;  .325 on-base percentage;  .475 slugging;  .800 OPS
• walked 113 times, struck out 209 times
• played 3B, 1B and LF
• Player B was....

[alarp33]

 

 

So what you have is two players who both looked like they had broken through coming into 2015. One of them is a switch hitter who has played a lot of games up the middle of the diamond and who has very good speed

 

Not trying to just pick on you, but it seems we get a ton of this in regards to Danny Santana.  You didn't describe one skill in this analysis of him, other than decent speed (which can be found anywhere).  

 

Him being a switch hitter and "playing up the middle" are irrelevant, since he is an awful defender, and can't hit from whatever side of the plate he is standing on. 

[alarp33]

 

Well, Arcia isn't pinch running for anyone late in a game, can't come in and put down a bunt in the bottom of the tenth, and isn't nearly as versatile as Santana on D.  If I'm using my bench to just fill in here and there, I'll take Santana over the pinch-hitting option of Arcia.  

 

Really? We are valuing Danny Santana because he can pinch run (how often has he done this the last 2 years??) and "put down a bunt"?  I'm guessing Ricky Nolasco (since he played in the NL for so long) could come in and put down a bunt in the bottom of the 10th as well.  

 

This truly is rock bottom. 

Edited June 20, 2016 by alarp33

[jimmer]

 

Not trying to just pick on you, but it seems we get a ton of this in regards to Danny Santana.  You didn't describe one skill in this analysis of him, other than decent speed (which can be found anywhere).  

 

Him being a switch hitter and "playing up the middle" are irrelevant, since he is an awful defender, and can't hit from whatever side of the plate he is standing on. 

Not to mention the speed leading to only 10 SB in 17 SB attempts. Pretty bad ratio.

 

He is pretty fast from home to dugout, though.

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[Shaitan]

 

Do the Twins have a problem working with Latino players? Or am I imagining things that aren't there?

I think you're imaging things.

 

Danny Santana:

Born: November 7, 1990 in Monte Plata, Monte Plata, Dominican Republic (Age 25.226)

[Shaitan]

 

maybe arcia subconsciously (or consciously) wanted a fresh start via self-sabotage?

 

Then it's pretty clear that he's not a professional. That won't fly in any walk of life.

 

[jimmer]

^{In Arcia's 'Flukey' good season he had a BABIP below league average and during Santana's flukey season he had a BABIP more than 100 points higher than league average.}

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[Nick Nelson]

 

Then it's pretty clear that he's not a professional. That won't fly in any walk of life.

Right. I've seen people use the idea that he was "sulking" as an actual defense for his rotten performance in Triple-A last year. As if that's a quality you want from anyone on your baseball team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Right. I've seen people use the idea that he was "sulking" as an actual defense for his rotten performance in Triple-A last year. As if that's a quality you want from anyone on your baseball team.

 

And how do you, or anyone, know what is or is not going on his head?

 

It seems you and others are jumping to a conclusion that we really can't make......

[tobi0040]

This truly is rock bottom.

That is quite optimistic.

[LaBombo]

 

He's a backup that can play INF and OF.  He's good/great at neither but plays them adequately enough and hits like a backup.  I agree with your argument if he continues to play every day, but that versatility is why he's on the roster.  Would I have rather they sent down a pitcher instead of DFA'ing Arcia, yes.  They chose to keep the extra pitcher.  Frankly, I'd rather see Santana sitting on the bench rotting than Polanco or another prospect.

 

For the record, this is by no means an attempt to defend the FO.  I'm simply pointing out what I perceive to be their reasoning.  

The best thing about Nick's article is that it makes no attempt whatsoever to argue that Santana has done more to earn a roster spot than Arcia.

 

Danny Santana is not an infielder. He's just the first non-infielder off the bench if you need an emergency infielder until a replacement from Rochester arrives.

 

Danny Santana does not even hit like a backup, unless you're talking about a backup AAA player brought up for 15 days regardless of readiness.  He was the worst non-catcher hitter in baseball last year and remains near the bottom this year.

 

At this point Danny Santana is Byron Buxton minus some of the defense and almost all the potential. The most significant difference in their game at the moment is that Danny's switch hitting means he has two utterly dreadful approaches at the plate to fix instead of one.

[Nick Nelson]

 

And how do you, or anyone, know what is or is not going on his head?

 

It seems you and others are jumping to a conclusion that we really can't make......

No one has proclaimed to know that. We said it wasn't a valid excuse or justification if it was the case. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ortiz had an .809 OPS with the Twins.    Arcia's best year two years ago was .752.  Big difference.

Not sure if this has been corrected yet, but Ortiz compiled that OPS at the height of the "sillyball" era (or "steroid era" as some like to say).  That .809 OPS was good for a 108 OPS+, the same as Arcia at his peak to date in 2014.

 

Arcia is also two years younger than Ortiz when he was released by the Twins.  At the same age as Arcia is today, Ortiz had an identical career OPS+ of 101.

 

Now, I agree Ortiz was better than Arcia, and this move is far more defensible than the Ortiz release, but these aren't the numbers to show it.

[mazeville]

Again, the issue isn't, "Will Arcia be David Ortiz" or "Is Arcia better than Danny Santana."

 

It's not even "Will Oswaldo Arcia play with the Twins next year?"

 

The issue is that Oswaldo Arcia, in his three years in the majors, demonstrated a legitimate power stroke. The Twins are going to lose 100-plus games this year. They have numerous players on the roster who are in their late 20s. And somehow they can't find a way to keep a player who is 25 and who hit 30 home runs his first two years in the majors? 

 

That's the problem here. And yes, this team has given up on numerous players over the years, only to have many of them come back to haunt the club. Danny Valencia is only the latest such player. 

 

This front office and the player development folks frankly have not earned the benefit of the doubt. Not after these five years. Not even close. 

[Boom Boom]

Right. I've seen people use the idea that he was "sulking" as an actual defense for his rotten performance in Triple-A last year. As if that's a quality you want from anyone on your baseball team.

There's a lot of rumors and hearsay about a lot of Twins players.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We burned Arcia's options and only once did the kid get 400 PAs and even then it was barely 400.

 

I get really annoyed with the mentality that players have to "force" or "earn" their way.  You know how that has to happen?  With actual, consistent playing time.  That means through struggles as well, especially when you aren't competing.  

 

In his first year up (2013) he was getting less PAs than Clete Thomas from June-August.  Clete Thomas.

 

In 2014 guys like Kubel, Fuld, and Parmelee were stealing at-bats.

 

In 2016 he's been relegated behind Danny Santana.

 

If that's what the Twins or anyone else think is the right way to "give someone a chance" - I want those people nowhere near the decision making process.

 

This times a million.  My apologies to Nick, but I don't think it's fair to say that Arcia got a far shot.  Yeah, he didn't earn it so to speak, but getting consistent PT is something he never got.  My main reason for wanting to get rid of Gardy centered around this issue.  Now 1 1/2 years of Molitor, we are seeing the exact same thing. 

 

It is maddeningly frustrating.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Max Kepler himself will be out of options next year and needs to get comfortable in the majors.

Maybe this has been corrected already too, but Kepler is not out of options next year -- he is eligible for a fourth option year.  The earliest he will be out of options will be spring 2018.

[Comrade Bork]

All the vitriol in this thread is a proxy argument over the complete lack any kind of player development plan by TR over the last 3 years.

We've had rookies and veterans alike have great seasons either unsupported by past performances or advanced metrics. And TR has been like a child with a shiny toy pla ed in front of him

Edited June 20, 2016 by Comrade Bork

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

I'm having a hard time taking Arcia's numbers in 2016 seriously, because if I do, I'm probably forcing myself to also take Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, Berrios, May, Meyers, Murphy, Park and every other young players numbers seriously.

 

And yet people seem ready to tar and feather 25-year-old Danny Santana for his numbers.

 

If Arcia gets to be in the "he's young, so he gets a pass" club, then it's only fair that the less-experienced Santana gets to hang out there too.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No one has proclaimed to know that. We said it wasn't a valid excuse or justification if it was the case. 

 

Then why bring it up, if no one thinks it? 

[bluechipper]

It's pretty simple. Oswaldo Arcia is only good at one thing, and that's hitting. Arcia hasn't hit in 2 years.

 

With that said, good luck to Oswaldo. I've always been a big fan of his.

[mazeville]

 

It's pretty simple. Oswaldo Arcia is only good at one thing, and that's hitting. Arcia hasn't hit in 2 years.

 

With that said, good luck to Oswaldo. I've always been a big fan of his.

 

Arcia had a .276 average last year. He stunk in AAA, but that's not uncommon for a player who fully expected to be promoted when he was healthy and didn't. 

[bluechipper]

 

Arcia had a .276 average last year. He stunk in AAA, but that's not uncommon for a player who fully expected to be promoted when he was healthy and didn't. 

I wanted to write off last year's AAA performance as just a lost year, but it's just been more of the same this year. Time to move on.

[wsnydes]

 

Arcia had a .276 average last year. He stunk in AAA, but that's not uncommon for a player who fully expected to be promoted when he was healthy and didn't. 

I guess that I'd expect him to work harder to earn his way back up, using it as motivation.  Life isn't always fair, sometimes you have to dig yourself out to get ahead.  

Edited June 20, 2016 by wsnydes

[mazeville]

 

I wanted to write off last year's AAA performance as just a lost year, but it's just been more of the same this year. Time to move on.

 

"Time to move on?" Why is it time to move on in June? Why not give him a month or two in the starting lineup to see what he can do when he gets a nice stretch of playing time? Because contrary to Nick's assertions, he has NOT been playing that much this year - only in very small spurts. 

 

He certainly warrants just as much of a chance as Danny Santana is receiving. 

 

This team ain't winning anything this year. The entire focus should be on young players. Period. 

[mazeville]

 

I guess that I'd expect him to work harder to earn his way back up, using it as motivation.  Life isn't always fair, sometimes you have to dig yourself out to get ahead.  

 

I won't necessarily disagree with that. But he'd earned some benefit of the doubt his first two years here. And people sometimes react differently. 

 

And on the other hand, he'd also worked his butt off by all accounts all winter long. 

 

He is a talented, powerful hitter. That he has failed at this point is an indictment of the Twins' player development. 

 

Not everybody does develop. But the Twins have had such a problem developing players that they deserve to be heavily criticized for this move. And based on this post and other comments, they're not. "Oh, well, he stinks so the Twins should get a pass on Arcia."

 

No. They shouldn't. 

[tobi0040]

And yet people seem ready to tar and feather 25-year-old Danny Santana for his numbers.

 

If Arcia gets to be in the "he's young, so he gets a pass" club, then it's only fair that the less-experienced Santana gets to hang out there too.

It is an either or though. And Arcia though his struggles has created 30-40 more runs over the last season and a half. Edited June 20, 2016 by tobi0040

[bluechipper]

 

"Time to move on?" Why is it time to move on in June? Why not give him a month or two in the starting lineup to see what he can do when he gets a nice stretch of playing time? Because contrary to Nick's assertions, he has NOT been playing that much this year - only in very small spurts. 

 

He certainly warrants just as much of a chance as Danny Santana is receiving. 

 

This team ain't winning anything this year. The entire focus should be on young players. Period. 

There's no way Arcia should be playing over Kepler, Buxton, and even Grossman right now. Miguel Sano is going to be coming back to take up the DH spot soon too. That is focusing on young players.

 

And Danny Santana is going to be playing probably once, maybe twice, a week.

[wsnydes]

 

I won't necessarily disagree with that. But he'd earned some benefit of the doubt his first two years here. And people sometimes react differently. 

 

And on the other hand, he'd also worked his butt off by all accounts all winter long. 

 

He is a talented, powerful hitter. That he has failed at this point is an indictment of the Twins' player development. 

 

Not everybody does develop. But the Twins have had such a problem developing players that they deserve to be heavily criticized for this move. And based on this post and other comments, they're not. "Oh, well, he stinks so the Twins should get a pass on Arcia."

 

No. They shouldn't. 

I don't disagree with any of your points either.  Perhaps the team was trying to find out how much he wants it?  Maybe they didn't feel like he was working hard enough?  I don't know.  For whatever reason, they kept him in AAA and he didn't react well.  At that point, you certainly can't call him up whether he earned it or not prior to that season.  

 

Keep in mind that I'm not questioning how hard he worked, merely stating that perhaps he needed to work even harder to get back.  That's what I would have done in that situation, but that is my mentality.  Like I said, life isn't always fair.

  

The Twins shouldn't and don't deserve to get a pass on him, but I can't say that Arcia is blameless either.