Article: Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience

[Nick Nelson]

 

When did Rosario hit?  His .289 OBP in 2015 was him "hitting"?

Arcia had a .257 OBP in Triple-A last year while Rosario was finishing 6th in AL ROTY.

 

Come on. 

[alarp33]

 

Arcia had a .257 OBP in Triple-A last year while Rosario was finishing 6th in AL ROTY.

 

Come on. 

 

I never mentioned Arcia. I asked when Rosario has hit since 2013? Or at a level higher than A ball.  

 

He had an unsustainable amount of triples in 2015, and when those vanish, so does any potential value he has.  If he can get on base even 30% of the time it will be a first since A ball

Edited June 20, 2016 by alarp33

[nicksaviking]

I'm having a hard time taking Arcia's numbers in 2016 seriously, because if I do, I'm probably forcing myself to also take Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Rosario, Berrios, May, Meyers, Murphy, Park and every other young players numbers seriously.

 

I think there's a pretty good chance that Arcia would have never blossomed in this current system, so even if he does go on to do great things, we likely wouldn't have seen the same results here. Arcia may very well be a "change of scenery" kind of guy.

 

However, I am also very hopeful that we are seeing the end of the current system and new leadership can get better results from the young players. So I would have preferred to hang on to Arcia and simply brought the new scenery to Minnesota.

[Nick Nelson]

 

because of the unsustainable amount of triples making his OPS look decent.

Yeah, if those triples would've just been doubles I'm sure his numbers would've been Arcia-like. Now Eddie's down in the minors padding his OPS with more unsustainable XBHs. What a bum.

 

It's pretty amazing to me the extents people are willing to go to cover up for the fact that Arcia has been utter garbage, earning his way to the bottom of the depth chart. Are we really all that desperate to keep around another hacktastic power hitter with no defensive value? There ain't exactly a shortage.

[bird]

 

He could play middle IF and the OF. Yet he's starting exclusively in the OF. You would think if he's truly a utility guy he'd have starts all over the field, right?

 

 

 

Nunez has had a lot do do with that I'd surmise.

 

For whatever reasons, Molitor seems to be really really really high on Santana's upside. Enough so to ignore the numbers. My guess is he envisions him as a long-term super-utility guy for his team.

 

I don't know if the Arcia dump is the right decision, but I do know that I'm not gonna miss watching him "press", especially in pressure AB's. Grossman may have had more AB's in a month than Arcia got all year, but Arcia had more absolutely brainless AB's in two games than Grossman had in a month. I for one won't miss watching Arcia, but that's just me.

 

One point about the notion that the Twins overloaded on DH types by design: they won a bid for Park, probably not a bid they expected to necessarily win. They didnt say, "hey, we need another DH type."  To fault the Twins for that seems a bit two-faced, since we tend to chastise them for not doing enough of that sort of thing. So, once they got him, don't they need to find out what they have, regardless of the eventual answer? Park may flop, and Arcia may find himself, but I see the reasoning behind giving priority over Arcia to Park, and also to Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, etc. Santana? That one I don't get, but there may be some things about Arcia that we don't see and that don't make the papers, who knows?

[alarp33]

 

Yeah, if those triples would've just been doubles I'm sure his numbers would've been Arcia-like. Now Eddie's down in the minors padding his OPS with more unsustainable XBHs. What a bum.

 

It's pretty amazing to me the extents people are willing to go to cover up for the fact that Arcia has been utter garbage, earning his way to the bottom of the depth chart. Are we really all that desperate to keep around another hacktastic power hitter with no defensive value? There ain't exactly a shortage.

 

A career OPS+ of 101 for someone who just turned 25 qualifies as "utter garbage".... for a 21-48 team! Unbelievable

[Nick Nelson]

 

I never mentioned Arcia. I asked when Rosario has hit since 2013? Or at a level higher than A ball.  

This thread is about Arcia. Did you miss that?

 

Claiming a guy's OPS is bloated because he had so many extra-base hits is truly one of the most absurd angles I've ever seen taken around here. Congrats. 

Also, maybe you haven't seen Rosario's numbers in Rochester since his demotion. Take a look. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

It's pretty amazing to me the extents people are willing to go to cover up for the fact that Arcia has been utter garbage, earning his way to the bottom of the depth chart. Are we really all that desperate to keep around another hacktastic power hitter with no defensive value? There ain't exactly a shortage.

 

This is demonstrably false and utterly preposterous.  

 

Yeah, Arcia didn't come up and light the world on fire, but shall we compare his 23 year old production to, say, Buxton?  How about Park?  How about Plouffe?  Arcia was a solid player with good upside and yet he got less playing time than these guys:

 

The team chose to give Clete freaking Thomas more at-bats than him.  It chose Jason Kubel.  It chose Danny Santana.

 

At some point you have to question the decisions made for playing time.  If those examples don't do that - where the hell is your bar for head-scratching decisions?

Edited June 20, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[wsnydes]

 

Arcia had a .257 OBP in Triple-A last year while Rosario was finishing 6th in AL ROTY.

 

Come on. 

 

 

A career OPS+ of 101 for someone who just turned 25 qualifies as "utter garbage".... for a 21-48 team! Unbelievable

Rosario's OPS+ last season was 101.

 

{grabs popcorn}

[alarp33]

 

This thread is about Arcia. Did you miss that?

 

Claiming a guy's OPS is bloated because he had so many extra-base hits is truly one of the most absurd angles I've ever seen taken around here. Congrats. 

Also, maybe you haven't seen Rosario's numbers in Rochester since his demotion. Take a look. 

 

Umm, you brought up Rosario, not me.  

 

Preposterous... just like those people who brought up Danny Santana's numbers were bloated by BABIP, right?  How did that one work out?

 

I don't care much about his Rochester numbers, though its good to see he is up to 8 walks in 226 at bats in 2016

[alarp33]

 

Rosario's OPS+ last season was 101.

 

{grabs popcorn}

 

And for his career, its 89.  

 

Btw, I'm not sure why this morphed into a Rosario conversation, but I think he'll be a fine 4th outfielder.  

 

Arcia should not have been DFA'd, regardless of Rosario's eventual spot

Edited June 20, 2016 by alarp33

[jimmer]

 

Umm, you brought up Rosario, not me.  

 

Preposterous... just like those people who brought up Danny Santana's numbers were bloated by BABIP, right?  How did that one work out?

 

I don't care much about his Rochester numbers, though its good to see he is up to 8 walks in 226 at bats in 2016

what was amazing was how Rosario managed an OBP under .290 last year while having a BABIP about 35 points higher than league average :-)  Getting on base is so over-rated.

 

Rosario will likely be a 4th OF for us in the future, since he can play CF.

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

 

Rosario will likely be a 4th OF for us in the future, since he can play CF.

 

Yup. And Arcia could've been a perfect platoon partner with Park at DH... Rosario + Arcia are not in any way mutually exclusive.  

[ALessKosherScott]

Ortiz was a stupid move because he'd actually was becoming a better hitter in his time with the Twins. His last year he slugged .500 over 466 PAs. The knock was could he stay healthy, and when he did he became a star.

 

The problem with Arcia is he has spent the last three seasons regressing. It's sad, and maybe being DFA'ed sparks something in him. But you can't keep a player who refuses to evolve.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

The problem with Arcia is he has spent the last three seasons regressing. It's sad, and maybe being DFA'ed sparks something in him. But you can't keep a player who refuses to evolve.

He's only been in the league 4 years and his 2nd year was better than his first.  Hard to say he's regressed three years in a row.

 

In the two years he was really given time, his first two, he was young and hit fairly well.  He actually improved off his rookie season during his second season. Then he was given 65 PA in 2015 after getting more than 400 in 2014.

 

It's also hard to gauge how much he has declined since 2014 when he's only had 179 PAs since then. But that's the kind of chance one would expect a young player to get after having an OPS in the .750s his sophomore year.

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[Everyday Eddy]

 

 

 

It's pretty amazing to me the extents people are willing to go to cover up for the fact that Arcia has been utter garbage, earning his way to the bottom of the depth chart. Are we really all that desperate to keep around another hacktastic power hitter with no defensive value? There ain't exactly a shortage.

 

Nah, don't really see anyone covering up his struggles.    What I do see is others placing a large portion of the blame on the way the Twins used him, whereas you are only blaming Arcia.    Big difference   

[Jham]

 

Umm, you brought up Rosario, not me.  

 

Preposterous... just like those people who brought up Danny Santana's numbers were bloated by BABIP, right?  How did that one work out?

 

I don't care much about his Rochester numbers, though its good to see he is up to 8 walks in 226 at bats in 2016

Santana's BABIP was an issue.  But I'm sick of people calling that bounce completely BABIP related.  He went from 7 HR in 430 PA to 1 in his next 417.  The drop in BABIP was somewhat more predictable, but he appeared to be a young kid with wheels just learning to drive the ball.  IE someone you'd expect to have a high BABIP.  I would guess that players at his stage who post a breakthrough season like that are more likely to take another step forward power wise then a step back, and that should have countered the BABIP.  Instead he's taken several giant strides backward which effects both his BIP and balls not in play (HR).  

I liked Arcia simply because he tried hard, almost too hard a lot of times.  He cared, he supported his teammates, and he played with fire even on losing teams.  Everyone complains about the team handing out scholarships.  Arcia got one this year out of camp.  I would have liked to see him play more, but I wouldn't have bet on better results.  Now, the season as it is, I can't justify keeping his one-dimensional bat on the team over Park, Plouffe, Kep, Buxton, Grossman, Rosario, or even D San.  He's not a better player than any of those guys other than maybe Santana who's an adequate 25th man on the roster type guy.  You don't get better by giving a 5th chance to a worse ballplayer.  I hope Ozzie goes and tears it up for someone.  Seems like a good kid, but he just wasn't a fit here.
 

[TheLeviathan]

Arcia had back to back solid seasons in 2013 and 2014.  He showed signs of needing to improve on some things (his physical fitness, defense, pitch recognition) but nothing that many other young players have had happen for a very long time.

 

But to change those things and become a better player - you have to actually have an opportunity.  A sustained one to work through your struggles.

 

We marched Dozier's pathetic bat out in top third of the lineup for two freaking months but Arcia rides pine after a bad couple games.  

 

Yeah, he may never amount to anything, but for the love of god don't defend the Twins' usage.  It was ridiculous.

[tobi0040]

I don't know how to do it. But if someone put a poll up asking which one between Arcia and Santana will go on to play in an all star game I am guessing it will be pretty overwhelming.

 

I am not predicting that happens. But if you told me one of them will, it will be Arcia.

[Nick Nelson]

 

This is demonstrably false and utterly preposterous.  

 

Yeah, Arcia didn't come up and light the world on fire, but shall we compare his 23 year old production to, say, Buxton?  How about Park?  How about Plouffe?  Arcia was a solid player with good upside and yet he got less playing time than these guys:

 

The team chose to give Clete freaking Thomas more at-bats than him.  It chose Jason Kubel.  It chose Danny Santana.

 

At some point you have to question the decisions made for playing time.  If those examples don't do that - where the hell is your bar for head-scratching decisions?

I realize that bringing up Clete Thomas and Jason Kubel are easy ways to rile people up, but this is quite overblown.

 

First, it all happened 2-3 years ago, under a different manager/coaching staff.

 

Second, Arcia's lack of playing time was the result of his own injuries as much as anything. In 2014 he missed 5 weeks early on with a wrist injury. If not for that lengthy absence he'd have been over 500 PA, quite easily. In 2013 he was a 22-year-old rookie being eased in, and also dealt with wrist and knee problems. I'm sure the Twins would have liked to give him more playing time in the majors last year but unfortunately he never really gave them the option.

 

Don't let the facts get in the way of the rancor though.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I realize that bringing up Clete Thomas and Jason Kubel are easy ways to rile people up, but this is quite overblown.

 

First, it all happened 2-3 years ago, under a different manager/coaching staff.

 

Second, Arcia's lack of playing time was the result of his own injuries as much as anything. In 2013 he missed 5 weeks early on with a wrist injury. If not for that lengthy absence he'd have been over 500 PA, quite easily. In 2013 he was a 22-year-old rookie being eased in, and also dealt with wrist and knee problems. I'm sure the Twins would have liked to give him more playing time in the majors last year but unfortunately he never really gave them the option.

 

Don't let the facts get in the way of the rancor though.

 

Same general manager.

 

Did you not read my facts?  From June to August in 2013 - a time period in which that wrist injury is not a factor - Clete Thomas had more at-bats.  That's just a fact.  Who is trying to spin something now Nick?

 

This team chose Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel, and Clete Thomas over Arcia in the years after he put up a 100 OPS+ as a rookie and a 108 OPS+ as a second year player.  That's just a fact.  Sorry it doesn't work with your version of events.  

 

The only person who didn't get an option was Arcia.  Despite earning one more than many other players have done and gotten more rope.

Edited June 20, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[ALessKosherScott]

 

He's only been in the league 4 years and his 2nd year was better than his first.  Hard to say he's regressed three years in a row.

 

In the two years he was really given time, his first two, he was young and hit fairly well.  He actually improved off his rookie season during his second season. Then he was given 65 PA in 2015 after getting more than 400 in 2014.

 

It's also hard to gauge how much he has declined since 2014 when he's only had 179 PAs since then. But that's the kind of chance one would expect a young player to get after having an OPS in the .750s his sophomore year.

 

He also tanked in 311 plate appearances in Rochester last year. He hasn't hit since 2014, and that's kind of problematic when your only tool is your bat.

[alarp33]

 

 Now, the season as it is, I can't justify keeping his one-dimensional bat on the team over Park, Plouffe, Kep, Buxton, Grossman, Rosario, or even D San.  He's not a better player than any of those guys other than maybe Santana who's an adequate 25th man on the roster type guy.  You don't get better by giving a 5th chance to a worse ballplayer.  I hope Ozzie goes and tears it up for someone.  Seems like a good kid, but he just wasn't a fit here.
 

 

His one dimension is one more than Danny Santana has.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

He also tanked in 311 plate appearances in Rochester last year. He hasn't hit since 2014, and that's kind of problematic when your only tool is your bat.

 

I agree, what happened last year is a head scratcher.  There may be something behind the scenes, but didn't the kid earn some rope with the effort he clearly made to change his body and put in the work?

 

I'd have liked, in a lost season like this, to see what he could do for a full season.  Then make a decision.

[wsnydes]

 

I agree, what happened last year is a head scratcher.  There may be something behind the scenes, but didn't the kid earn some rope with the effort he clearly made to change his body and put in the work?

 

I'd have liked, in a lost season like this, to see what he could do for a full season.  Then make a decision.

I don't really want him getting AB's and time in the field over Buxton or Kepler, but there is no reason that he couldn't have been platooning at DH.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't really want him getting AB's and time in the field over Buxton or Kepler, but there is no reason that he couldn't have been platooning at DH.

 

Correct.  This isn't an either/or with Kepler, there are options for this team to play him.  

[wsnydes]

 

Correct.  This isn't an either/or with Kepler, there are options for this team to play him.  

Correct.  I'm not going to lose sleep over Arcia, but there were more deserving options to be cut loose or sent down.  Carrying the 13 pitchers for Molitor to mismanage and overuse is a mistake.

[jimmer]

 

Correct.  I'm not going to lose sleep over Arcia, but there were more deserving options to be cut loose or sent down.  Carrying the 13 pitchers for Molitor to mismanage and overuse is a mistake.

It all stems from poor roster construction that started with signing a 30 year old with no MLB experience and a current K rate over 33% to be our DH.

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[wsnydes]

 

It all stems from poor roster construction that started with signing a 30 year old with no MLB experience and a current K rate over 33% to be our DH.

Also correct.  I figured this day was coming as soon as that signing was made.  I'm surprised that it took this long, but the writing was on the wall.  That move created far more problems than it's been worth.

[Mike Sixel]

Or, you know.....3 days on, 1 day off, for Kepler, and for Park....then everyone gets relatively consistent at bats.

 

This stems from:

 

1. His lost year last year, he lost Molitor, imo.

2. The signing of Park, and the non-trade of Plouffe.

3. The irrational love of Danny Santana, who can't hit, and is a below average to terrible fielder (depending on position).

4. The inability to rotate players for some reason.

5. A refusal to PH for Suzuki or other players late in games.

6. Arcia something.....this is on both the team and the player, but since I don't see him day to day, I can't say what his issues are....