Article: Oswaldo Arcia And The Limits Of Patience

[Nick Nelson]

Patience is a commodity in baseball. Each team can only have so much. More patience is warranted in certain circumstances, particularly for rebuilding teams, but it is never infinite.

 

With Oswaldo Arcia, patience was a luxury the Minnesota Twins could no longer afford.There was much frustration amongst fans over the decision to designate Arcia for assignment last week in order to make room for Danny Santana. Plenty of commenters voiced their displeasure in a 13-page thread here on Twins Daily.

 

It's understandable. These are the same fans that have watched so many players leave Minnesota and excel elsewhere. The "David Ortiz Complex" is very real as the legendary DH wraps up a Hall of Fame career that took off as soon as the Twins unwisely gave up on him. There are too many more recent examples currently on other rosters in the league.

 

Seeing the youth, the raw power, and the seemingly untapped potential, it's tempting to lump Arcia with some of the organization's most painful past mistakes. Don't do it.

 

Let's lay out a few of the facts with regard to Arcia.

 

He has been utterly terrible this year. In 114 plate appearances, he has batted .214/.289/.369 with 46 strikeouts. That's a 40 percent K-rate. Guys who are above 40 percent do not belong in the majors.

 

The only MLB player with a higher strikeout rate this year (min. 100 PAs) is Byron Buxton. It's debatable whether Buxton belongs in the bigs right now but he gains leeway because he's so young and brings so much to the table defensively.

 

Arcia, conversely, is approaching 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, and offers almost no defensive value. If he isn't mashing he isn't really an asset, and it's been quite a while since he has mashed.

 

Last year, as we all recall, the outfielder turned a short rehab assignment into a permanent banishment at Triple-A because he never got going there. Save for a brief power splurge in July, Arcia basically slumped for three months straight, finishing with a .199 average in 79 games at Rochester. For someone who had hit 20 homers with a 752 OPS in the majors a year before, it was embarrassing.

 

The Twins gave him a chance to make it right. Despite being tempted by Carlos Quentin's veteran bat in spring training, they stuck with Arcia, who was out of options. And while I've seen some people complaining about the team not putting Arcia in a position to succeed, that just isn't true.

 

Actually, Paul Molitor has been quite good about using the righty-mashing slugger in the most advantageous spots. Eighty-two percent of Arcia's plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers, and in those appearances he has batted .202 with a 42 percent K-rate. Yuck.

 

Arcia is still young, but he continues to head in the wrong direction and the Twins have too many other players ahead of him that they are rightfully prioritizing. Miguel Sano, as things stand, remains an outfielder and has nowhere else to play. Max Kepler himself will be out of options next year and needs to get comfortable in the majors. Eddie Rosario has been absolutely tearing up Triple-A since his demotion – not struggling and sulking, mind you – and should be back up soon. Even Robbie Grossman is making a case as a long-term piece in some capacity.

 

There's no argument to be made for Arcia starting ahead of any of these guys that doesn't fall back on his production from two years ago. Keeping him on the bench was doing neither him nor the Twins any good. He played himself out of the team's plans and it isn't anyone's fault but his own.

 

This is not an indictment of the 25-year-old's long-term outlook; it wouldn't surprise me if he falls into the right situation and hits 30 homers in a couple of years. It's not unusual for players to reach their late 20s before they really figure things out in the majors. This game is tough.

 

Yet, to argue that the Twins should have perpetually kept Arcia planted on their 25-man roster until that day arrived is silly. You can quibble with the timing and specifics of the DFA move, since Danny Santana isn't necessarily a player worth giving up anything to make room for and it's only June. But there were no signs of positive change, and keeping Arcia around was only going to get tougher with more deserving players like Sano and Rosario returning to the fold.

 

All of the hand-wringing over the decision to designate Arcia overlooks the basic realities of the situation. You need to earn things on merit in Major League Baseball and he wasn't doing it. There is certainly a discussion to be had about how the organization may be culpable in his failure to adjust and grow as a player, especially given how many different times we've seen it happen, but that is a separate discussion.

 

As of this post going live on Sunday night, there is still no word that Arcia has been claimed off waivers by another club. Maybe this will all be moot. But even if he does land elsewhere, and even if he does finally turn a corner eventually, it won't be because the Twins screwed up and gave up too early.

 

It will be because he exhausted every last bit of patience they could show him.

 

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[Han Joelo]

Bravo. Well said, Nick. I'm glad they didn't send Kepler down in order to give him one more chance. Best of luck, Ozwaldo.

[Vanimal46]

I'm not sold on Arcia being David Ortiz 2.0. That's a bit of a stretch. Some of the handwringing about the situation which is warranted, IMO, is choosing D Santana over Arcia.

 

I'm starting to sound like a broken record here. Santana is just as brutal offensively. If not the worst offensive players in baseball the last 2 years. But he can play anywhere in the OF and middle infield they say! He has started 0 games in the IF this season...

 

So the Twins swapped out someone who could provide power potential for the team with a guy who provides no positive value besides speed for the team. That's my issue with it.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm no Santana fan, but he serves a function on the roster. Arcia really didn't anymore. As I said, you can quibble with the timing but this move was imminent one way or another, with Sano's return and Rosario's recall closing in.

[Otwins]

I think they may have kept Santana to try and trade Nunez. Escobar starting to hit again. Sano coming back. Santana just has a bigger role on the team. That said if not offered anything for Nunez.  Santana could be next when Rosario, Sano are ready to return. He will go before Grossman.

[mickeymental]

maybe arcia subconsciously (or consciously) wanted a fresh start via self-sabotage?

[SydneyTwinsFan]

 

This an interesting take Nick, and in the end it's hard to argue that Arcia made a compelling case for himself with a .658 OPS and poor fielding, whatever mitigating factors there are (I see some, I accept others see fewer).

 

I struggle though with the suggestion that “Molitor has been quite good at using the righty-mashing slugger in the most advantageous spots”. In my view he has missed way more opportunities than he has provided. The alternative view regarding Molitor’s handling of Arcia:

 

Basically ignored while the team started 0-9, garnering a grand total of 4 PA in that time.

 

Eventually given a chance in the next 6 games, going 8-24 with 2 HR with an OPS of .855. Of course, having used him so advantageously, Molitor inexplicably benches the guy for 3 of the next 4 games.

 

Given some more consistent playing time (starting 11 of the next 13 games) and puts up a respectable .250/.350/.416 line in that period.  As of 10 May he was sporting a .775 OPS.

 

Molitor obviously didn’t see the advantages of using that production on a team with an 8-24 record, as Arcia was benched for 7 of the next 10 games. I mean, seriously? This is the “most advantageous” use of him?  I guess I’m not surprised that in the odd chances he did get in this period the guy was pressing and striking out a lot. At this point the (simplistic) calculus on Arica seems to be: consistent playing time = acceptable production; spot starts = pressing and strikeouts. Consistent playing time would have helped in the field as well.

 

In the 24 May game against Kansas City Arcia performed well, going 2-3 with a 2B.  His OPS, even after being messed around for the previous 2 weeks was .708. Not great, but better (at the time) than Plouffe, Dozier, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Santana.

 

His reward for a good night’s work? Benched. For 10 of the next 12 games.

 

A couple of spot starts and the odd PH appearance later and that was it.....

 

I look at that chronology and can’t see anything other than missed opportunity and a stubborn refusal by Molitor to find out what he had.

 

I get that the strikeouts are a problem. I would understand the sporadic playing time if the preferred starting outfield (Rosario, Buxton, Sano) had performed as expected and Park had mashed in the DH slot. But in a season in which Rosario and Buxton have been sent down, Sano has been injured and Park has had trouble acclimating to the league, it defies belief that Arcia wasn't given a better look. Patience? I guess I don't see as much evidence of it as you do.

 

[mickeymental]

nick and sydney both make good cases. i recall several losses over the weeks where it seemed curious that arcia wasn't called on to pinch hit, but the .199 in rochester and the strikeouts were lame. so i return to my earlier point: maybe his confidence is such that he figured he'd be better off starting over ANYWHERE else. a little self-sabotage.

 

[Dantes929]

Poor comparison to Ortiz because Ortiz was a very good hitter with the Twins.     Injuries and a determination that they would rather have Dougie M's defense at 1st   than Ortiz and his bat was questionable at the time but it was mostly the injuries.    Ortiz had an .809 OPS with the Twins.    Arcia's best year two years ago was .752.  Big difference.

[KirbyDome89]

Arcia's numbers last year were brutal. They aren't impressive so far this year either. But lets be honest, the "chance," the Twins gave him this season was sporadic playing time over the course of 3+ months. Robbie Grossman (our savior?) has more PAs in a month than Arcia has all season. I've commented on a lot of this in the other thread. SydneyTwinsfan nailed it on the OF situation. We've already hashed out the other player moves that could have been made rather than DFA Arcia. I'm not a Santana fan so I understand the added frustration of keeping him over Arica, but I think the bigger issue is that the Twins exposed a potential 30+ HR guy to waivers when they didn't have to. 

[Shane Wahl]

Eduardo Nunez and Trevor Plouffe should have been traded. Arcia should have split time with Park regularly.

 

Molitor should learn how to manage a bullpen so that the team only needs seven relievers.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

Between this and the other thread, I think I may have seen the words "upside" and "potential" enough times to last me a lifetime.

 

Isn't potential just a really, really polite way of saying David McCarty?

[Eris]

Learning how to take quality at bats should be a requirement at the major league level.  For whatever reason, Arcia was not able to make the adjustments necessary to improve his hitting.  It is about time that the Twins either send to the minors or release players who are not willing or able to do this.

[twinssouth]

Good article Nick, totally agree and yesterday Kepler went 3 for 4, couple of ribs, so would have made no sense to send him down.

[mazeville]

Arcia's numbers after being sent down to Rochester were shockingly brutal, but you could possibly explain it by saying the kid just pressed because he wanted to get back to the majors. 

 

Take that away, and nothing Arcia had done before that warranted being sent down and kept down. He had a .276 average and a .718 OPS in the majors before he was injured. He had a .752 OPS the year before. When he was 23.

 

This year he has been playing in spurts. But his OPS is STILL better than, oh I don't know, Trevor Plouffe, who has destroyed his trade value this year with a .626 OPS.

 

I get that there are too many people ahead of him. But there are too many people ahead of him for odd decisions. Signing Byung Ho Park when we already had strikeout-prone power hitters who were best served as DHs was one. Keeping Plouffe and deciding Miguel Sano was better off in the outfield was another. 

 

For a team on pace to lose about 110 games, dumping Arcia was not a good decision. Will he be David Ortiz? No. But there is a good chance that he will come back to haunt this team in some fashion.

[Vanimal46]

I'm no Santana fan, but he serves a function on the roster. Arcia really didn't anymore. As I said, you can quibble with the timing but this move was imminent one way or another, with Sano's return and Rosario's recall closing in.

Other than speed, what function does he provide? He should be considered an OF only now since that's all he's played this year. He's a very poor hitting OF.

 

This may be the first 100+ loss team I've followed that supposedly has too many good players for too few spots on a major league roster.

Edited June 20, 2016 by Vanimal46

[Han Joelo]

 

This may be the first 100+ loss team I've followed that supposedly has too many good players for too few spots on a major league roster.

Yes, but "supposedly" to whom?  Arcia and Santana BOTH stink.  Arcia was deemed most expendable…for now.  The Arcia/Santana debate is a bit like the Dean/Zach Jones thread; a lot of teeth gnashing over fringe players.  Given Dean's modest mediocrity vs. Jones frustrating ineffectuality, I'd say Ryan and crew guessed correctly on that move.

 

My biggest takeaway from the Arcia deal is a positive--the Twins didn't demote Kepler in order to hang onto an "asset" with "potential."

[jimmer]

 

Learning how to take quality at bats should be a requirement at the major league level.  For whatever reason, Arcia was not able to make the adjustments necessary to improve his hitting.  It is about time that the Twins either send to the minors or release players who are not willing or able to do this.

I'd argue that the learning part should be in the minors, but yeah. In any event, the epitome of this is Rosario, who, somehow, is apparently is 'more deserving' than Arcia, even though he takes horrendous at bats, can't get on base, and makes bonehead decision after bonehead decision.. 

 

BTW, Santana was, arguably, the worst player in baseball last year and isn't worth anything on this roster, unless you count being able to play poor defense at several positions while being a black hole on offense.

 

Also, this article seems redundant.  Seth already wrote an article defending this decision in his article announcing the move, though this one has the added chastising of fans who have a problem with it, which is fun.  I can't imagine the comments being much different.  An unneeded redundancy.

Edited June 20, 2016 by jimmer

[wsnydes]

 

Other than speed, what function does he provide? He should be considered an OF only now since that's all he's played this year. He's a very poor hitting OF.

This may be the first 100+ loss team I've followed that supposedly has too many good players for too few spots on a major league roster.

He's a backup that can play INF and OF.  He's good/great at neither but plays them adequately enough and hits like a backup.  I agree with your argument if he continues to play every day, but that versatility is why he's on the roster.  Would I have rather they sent down a pitcher instead of DFA'ing Arcia, yes.  They chose to keep the extra pitcher.  Frankly, I'd rather see Santana sitting on the bench rotting than Polanco or another prospect.

 

For the record, this is by no means an attempt to defend the FO.  I'm simply pointing out what I perceive to be their reasoning.  

[Mike Sixel]

the mistake was burning options on him, and then not giving him consistent playing time when he was here, imo. I fail to see how Molitor most advantageously used him by never PHing for Suzuki......next you'll tell me he has used Polanco correctly....

[Comrade Bork]

Gleeman had a really good conversation about this and the options the twins had available. I liked the line "Arcia plays defense like he's holding two frying pans". He also went on to say that defense doesn't matter at this point in the twins season.

 

With Sano on the DL the twins have 2 players on the 25 man roster under 25 and only 4? Under 27. We are not a young team like the FO tries to Bill us as and we just put a 25 year old possible 30 HR guy on waivers. Yeah he sucks against lefties and literally the only thing he brings to the team is occasional power but in 1000 games he's has a career Ops around .740. That's better than all but two twins this season

 

And fun fact, out of like 285 eligible players over the last two seasons Danny Santana is 280th or worse in every single offensive category and we gave him significantly more ABs than arcia who played once a week. This team has 0 vision for effective player development.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's a backup that can play INF and OF.  He's good/great at neither but plays them adequately enough and hits like a backup.  I agree with your argument if he continues to play every day, but that versatility is why he's on the roster.  Would I have rather they sent down a pitcher instead of DFA'ing Arcia, yes.  They chose to keep the extra pitcher.  Frankly, I'd rather see Santana sitting on the bench rotting than Polanco or another prospect.

 

For the record, this is by no means an attempt to defend the FO.  I'm simply pointing out what I perceive to be their reasoning.  

 

He was the worst player in MLB last year.....how is that "adequate" exactly? 

[wsnydes]

 

He was the worst player in MLB last year.....how is that "adequate" exactly? 

I said "adequate enough", which is not the same as adequate in my book.  Though, clearly he isn't on the team for his offense.

 

Secondly, please re-read the last sentence in my post.

[Vanimal46]

He could play middle IF and the OF. Yet he's starting exclusively in the OF. You would think if he's truly a utility guy he'd have starts all over the field, right?

[Boom Boom]

The Twins forced their own hand here by 1. Signing Park, and 2. being unwilling to send Park to the minors.

 

If Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco earned their demotions then you can't argue that Park hasn't earned it. I think TR doesn't want to admit that his "big" offseason move was a mistake that glonked up the roster.

[Han Joelo]

I'm curious what people think about the Red Sox cutting Rusney Castillo.  BIG investment that started off with a bang, but since then he too has stunk, and/but been given very limited opportunities this year.

 

It seems to me that fringe prospects like Arcia, Castillo, and Grossman get fewer chances. You've got to seize the opportunity and not make excuses about playing time.

[Vanimal46]

Gleeman had a really good conversation about this and the options the twins had available. I liked the line "Arcia plays defense like he's holding two frying pans". He also went on to say that defense doesn't matter at this point in the twins season.

 

With Sano on the DL the twins have 2 players on the 25 man roster under 25 and only 4? Under 27. We are not a young team like the FO tries to Bill us as and we just put a 25 year old possible 30 HR guy on waivers. Yeah he sucks against lefties and literally the only thing he brings to the team is occasional power but in 1000 games he's has a career Ops around .740. That's better than all but two twins this season

 

And fun fact, out of like 285 eligible players over the last two seasons Danny Santana is 280th or worse in every single offensive category and we gave him significantly more ABs than arcia who played once a week. This team has 0 vision for effective player development.

That is a very fun fact. Yet Santana is getting the lion's share of ABs. It's truly mind boggling how that is possible.

[wsnydes]

 

He could play middle IF and the OF. Yet he's starting exclusively in the OF. You would think if he's truly a utility guy he'd have starts all over the field, right?

Agreed.  The response there is that they have better all around options in the INF, but had none in the OF.  Arcia can't even play a corner spot, let alone CF.

 

Again, I'm simply stating what I believe to be the other side of this argument.  It is very thin, I agree.  But it's the only rational reason I can see as a benefit of this move.

[Vanimal46]

I'm curious what people think about the Red Sox cutting Rusney Castillo. BIG investment that started off with a bang, but since then he too has stunk, and/but been given very limited opportunities this year.

 

It seems to me that fringe prospects like Arcia, Castillo, and Grossman get fewer chances. You've got to seize the opportunity and not make excuses about playing time.

Well first of all, Castillo is 28 years old. There's not a lot of growth left there until he hits the decline years. Second, the Red Sox are in the thick of the AL East race. If he's not going to help a contending club, there's no reason to keep him on the 25 man roster.

 

Big differences between Arcia and Castillo's ages, and where the organizations are currently at.

[Craig Arko]

I'm good with rolling the dice on Kepler instead of Arcia.

 

But Santana is a real head scratcher.