Article: Twins Designate Oswaldo Arcia

[tobi0040]

First of all I wasn't advocating bringing him back, merely pointing out that getting rid of him was not quite the panacea so many wanted to believe it was.  As to your leading question I'll start the answer session with Tom Kelly 1997-2000.  The team improved in 2001 as I believe this team was bound to do in 2015 regardless of whether Gardy or Molitor was calling the shots.  We'll never know that.  And, yes, I realize TK had the cache that comes from winning 2 World Series rings to get another year beyond 4 straight 90 loss campaigns.  But take away those 2 seasons, which a strong argument could be made for both being the result of brilliant moves by Andy McPhail (Gladden, Reardon, Morris, Chili Davis) in the off-seasons preceding them, and quite a bit of the bloom comes off TK's rose.

So if the problem wasn't the coach.......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When I think of Gardenhire, I think of a good yet frequently exasperating .500 manager who lost to the Yankees in the playoffs a lot and then lost to everyone in the regular season a lot. 

FTFY.

 

Gardy, 28-76 vs the Yankees overall.  Started with a 13 game losing streak against them (2002-2003), and had another 12 game losing streak against them later (2009-2010).

 

https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/520646779822694400

 

And Molitor is now 2-8 against them.

Edited June 20, 2016 by spycake

[LaBombo]

 

FTFY.

 

Gardy, 28-76 vs the Yankees overall.  Started with a 13 game losing streak against them (2002-2003), and had another 12 game losing streak against them later (2009-2010).

 

https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/520646779822694400

 

And Molitor is now 2-8 against them.

Yeah, I thought about excluding the word 'playoffs' but figured that including it was a way to be fair to Gardy and at least indirectly credit him for putting the Twins winning enough to be in a position to be crushed in the playoffs.

 

But yes, at this point the only good thing about the Twins' ongoing concession of the 21st century to the Yankees is that not having them in the Central has prevented the Twins from claiming the Cleveland Spiders' worst record throne.

Edited June 20, 2016 by LaBombo

[dxpavelka]

 

Since World War II, there have been only two ways to keep your MLB manager job after just three consecutive 90 loss seasons: work for an expansion team, or work for Terry Ryan.  Gardenhire was let go after four clunkers because even the Twins eventually needed to hold someone accountable for a terrible product.

 

And you're right, we'll never know how the 2015 Twins would have performed with Gardy managing, but the point is that NO team would know, because as a matter of unerring historical trend they would have fired him after 2013.

 

Molitor has been an enigma and an occasional source of consternation (bunt-o-rama offense, 'Wheel of Misfortune' bullpen) in his brief tenure, but i can't imagine how anyone could be so put off by him that they would miss a guy who any other team in baseball would have canned a year before the Twins did.

 

When I think of Gardenhire, I think of a good yet frequently exasperating .500 manager who lost to the Yankees in the playoffs a lot and then lost to everyone in the regular season a lot.  Time will tell how Molitor is remembered, but my bet is that it won't be as 'the guy the Twins should have never hired instead of keeping Gardenhire'.

One thing we should have learned from all of those Gardy post-season losses and the ensuing last 5 years is that I'll take a post-season drubbing 10 times over what we've been exposed to since 2011.  At least June, July, August & September were entertaining. Funny thing about that bullpen.  It's ERA is just shy of a full run better than that of the starters.  Just sayin

Edited June 21, 2016 by dxpavelka

[dxpavelka]

 

So if the problem wasn't the coach.......

Enlighten me on what you've seen in 2016 to convince me it was.

[tobi0040]

Enlighten me on what you've seen in 2016 to convince me it was.

Molitor could have coaxed a few more wins out of this team. Although some of these decisions like Sano in the OF for example I think were not his call.

 

I was just noting that we switched coaches and are actually losing more. So it seems the last person still sitting in their chair is Terry Ryan.

[Rosterman]

 

Probably so the Twins could have said "they were in" on Park had he turned out good. Let me be clear, this is not aimed at you at all. But the Twins have been defended because they "didn't think they would win" the Park bidding and it altered their plans. Really a lame excuse. Don't bid then.

It is such the Twins Way of doing things. Of course, we react differently in the blogosphere than most people do who come to Twins games and see the Twins spending money on free agent pitchers, playing the international market, making choices in trades for pitching at the expense of a luxury of outfielders, working to put a competitive team on the field that will stay in the game and all. Plus, Target Field is a great game day experience, we have new bars, different foods and, did I say, a great place to watch a ballgame.

 

Yes, the put in bids to be a part of the action, so to speak. They make a trade addressing weaknesses, but what do we really know about the whys and true needs of the team. They spend money on guys that look halfway decent, but only if you are a halfway decent team. But dollar dogs are great, we have all these scoreboard games, kids sing he national anthem, the flag is raised with fireworks, and we have a radio station that shuts down soon after the game and the airwaves, as a while, are void o discussion of the Twins above and beyond their marketing strategy which is to run THEIR OWN AADS during games?!?

 

They may look like a major league team, smell like a major league team, but are they truly a major league team?

 

Let's try a year of Mike Veeck at the helm which an indy league general manager wannabe given the golden opportunity. AT least it would be fun! And cheap!

[dxpavelka]

 

Molitor could have coaxed a few more wins out of this team. Although some of these decisions like Sano in the OF for example I think were not his call.

I was just noting that we switched coaches and are actually losing more. So it seems the last person still sitting in their chair is Terry Ryan.

If Molitor could coax a few more wins out of this team I would strongly suggest he do so.  The is not going to have the luxury of coming out of the gate with a World Series ring or 3 straight post-season appearances.  If TR gets bumped out of his chair the new guy may not give a rip about the fact that he's a Hall of Famer or one of us.

[nicksaviking]

If TR gets bumped out of his chair the new guy may not give a rip about the fact that he's a Hall of Famer or one of us.

I would strongly endorse a GM who doesn't value such traits that are not significant to managerial success.

[wsnydes]

 

If Molitor could coax a few more wins out of this team I would strongly suggest he do so.  The is not going to have the luxury of coming out of the gate with a World Series ring or 3 straight post-season appearances.  If TR gets bumped out of his chair the new guy may not give a rip about the fact that he's a Hall of Famer or one of us.

Neither of those are qualifications or requirements for a big league manager, so that would be a refreshing approach.

[jimmer]

I'm sure most don't care, but BaseRuns says we should have 5 more wins (which would still have us last in the AL).  For those who prefer Pythag, it says we should have 2 more wins than we have now.

 

Additionally, for reasons passing understanding, we are projected to go 44-48 the rest of the way.  I think whoever did that projection should take a pee test, but that's what's there.

[stringer bell]

 

I'm sure most don't care, but BaseRuns says we should have 5 more wins (which would still have us last in the AL).  For those who prefer Pythag, it says we should have 2 more wins than we have now.

 

Additionally, for reasons passing understanding, we are projected to go 44-48 the rest of the way.  I think whoever did that projection should take a pee test, but that's what's there.

I certainly think that the Twins could go .500 the rest of the way. There's more talent than the last Gardy teams and there's a chance that a couple of guys could go nuts (Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton) in the second half. As was written above, the big issue is pitching. The veterans on the staff can fill the back end and the back end of the bullpen needs to be established. That is a lot of work. Regression to the mean would garner more close wins and also from some players.

 

If the right amount of trades are made at the deadline, the club could emerge from this disaster of a season with some palpable improvement. Not sure that will happen, but I still have hope.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Additionally, for reasons passing understanding, we are projected to go 44-48 the rest of the way.  I think whoever did that projection should take a pee test, but that's what's there.

Fangraphs actually says 42-50 now, which at .462 is just a bit under our preseason projection there (.481).

[wsnydes]

 

I certainly think that the Twins could go .500 the rest of the way. There's more talent than the last Gardy teams and there's a chance that a couple of guys could go nuts (Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Buxton) in the second half. As was written above, the big issue is pitching. The veterans on the staff can fill the back end and the back end of the bullpen needs to be established. That is a lot of work. Regression to the mean would garner more close wins and also from some players.

 

If the right amount of trades are made at the deadline, the club could emerge from this disaster of a season with some palpable improvement. Not sure that will happen, but I still have hope.

I don't see it happening without quite a few moves and a few things working their way like you pointed out, but if some of the young guys come up and succeed it may not be insane to see them do that.  

 

I personally don't think it'll happen, mainly because I don't think the necessary moves will be made.  I think the talent is there for the position players.  Like has been pointed out, the pitching is what needs to improve in order for them to have even a remote chance of approaching a .500 clip.

[jimmer]

 

Fangraphs actually says 42-50 now, which at .462 is just a bit under our preseason projection there (.481).

They must have just updated it, because when I wrote it, it said other-wise.  Either way, neither looks reasonable.

Edited June 22, 2016 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They must have just updated it, because when I wrote it, it said other-wise.  Either way, neither looks reasonable.

Sounds like you might prefer their "season to date stats mode" which projects only a .383 winning percentage the rest of the way, 35-57 for a final record of 57-105:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=1&lg=div&date=current

[jimmer]

 

Sounds like you might prefer their "season to date stats mode" which projects only a .383 winning percentage the rest of the way, 35-57 for a final record of 57-105:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=1&lg=div&date=current

yes, but not many know about that and there's so much pushback on here for anything that isn't the most basic info that I didn't even bother showing that.  I mean, we saw someone chide OPS+ on another thread when someone used it to compare OPS for players who played in different times and parks. :-)

 

Edited June 22, 2016 by jimmer

[dxpavelka]

 

Neither of those are qualifications or requirements for a big league manager, so that would be a refreshing approach.

They aren't but there are quite a few rubes who seem to think that being a Hall of Famer somehow makes Molitor a better manager.  They don't seem to grasp the fact that no manager who has been elected to the HOF as a player has subsequently gone on to win a World Series as a manager.

[alarp33]

Arcia traded to TB for cash or a PTBN.  I hope he hits 20 home runs this year

[Mike Sixel]

Cash! yay, we got Cash! 

[jimmer]

 

Arcia traded to TB for cash or a PTBN.  I hope he hits 20 home runs this year

TB is one of the teams I thought would be interested.  Their DH issue is a problem.  Love to see him succeed over there as the primary DH.

Edited June 24, 2016 by jimmer

[ashbury]

for cash

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/893572/WooHooHomer.jpg

 

We got him!

[Seth Stohs]

I'd be good with Kevin Cash!!

[tobi0040]

Very few teams platoon as well as TB. We joked that it would be one of 5-6 teams that would pick him up and use him appropriately.

 

But we did get some cash. So that is pretty sweet.

[Craig Arko]

Aphonopelma johnnycashi.

 

'Hello, I'm Johnny Cash.'

 

http://qz.com/711769/hello-im-johnny-cash-the-tarantula-on-the-origin-of-celebrity-named-species/

 

[ashbury]

I'd be good with Kevin Cash!!

And here I thought it was this guy we got:

 

http://media.jrn.com/images/420111021200821001_6099389_ver1.0_640_480.jpg

 

(We run through this routine every time ... )

[Mr. Brooks]

Can I get a preemptive list of the excuses we'll see to let the Twins off the hook when Arcia becomes a valuable player?

 

And yes, before you ask, I'll absolutely eat crow if he busts out.

[ashbury]

And yes, before you ask, I'll absolutely eat crow if he busts out.

1.444 OPS for the Rays and currently on an upward trajectory. I'm convinced; how about you?