Article: Eddie Rosario Is Raking In Rochester

[Mike Sixel]

I think Sano and Buxton were top 10 and 5 talents at one point.....should we expect Buxton to struggle like this, and still think he's elite?

 

Also, those are some seriously cherry picked names, I can't imagine those are the only 4 players to excel....maybe Bryant did too...maybe some Mets pitchers did too. That's about the worst example of just making "stats" up ever, frankly.

[USAFChief]

Rosario can earn a spot as the 4th OFer if he performs well in spring training.

 

Until then, enjoy the bushes.

[alarp33]

 

Max Kepler is arguably now the Twins' hottest prospect and Rosario's minor league numbers are better than Kepler's so no reason to give up on the kid this early. I believe he's always been a bit streaky throughout his career so I'd give him another shot real soon.

 

That's really only true if you are willing to give the same weight to low minors numbers as you are upper minors numbers.  Kepler blows Rosario out of the water if you look at AA+AAA

 

Rosario hasn't cracked a .290 OBP since 2013 in New Britain

[HitInAPinch]

 

He'll get his chance. Sano will be back. Kepler will go down. Somebody will probably get hurt (or traded) within a month of that.

 

I like the conservative, make them really earn it approach. It worked with Hunter and Span. It didn't work out so well with Liriano. There's no hard and fast rule as each prospect has their own personalities, but I think it helps with the psychological side of the game.

 

Rosario, just like Buxton and Sano [to a somewhat lesser extent] have come to the MLB as undisciplined players.  People can blame the coaches all they want, but in the end it's up to the players.  Strike 1, strike 2 and low and away until they finally swing.  Buxton looked great at the beginning of this last call up, but has fallen back into the pattern.

 

There's no such thing as a prospect being "blocked".  If they are truly that good, nothing should/would be in their way.

[troyhobbs]

 

That's really only true if you are willing to give the same weight to low minors numbers as you are upper minors numbers.  Kepler blows Rosario out of the water if you look at AA+AAA

 

Rosario hasn't cracked a .290 OBP since 2013 in New Britain

Good point. I still believe he's had enough success that he ultimately belongs on an MLB roster though. His speed and defense put his floor at a decent 4th OF in the MLB.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Based on a lot of MLB vs AAA records for pretty much every young hitter who made the trip, and the shape of the team's hitting, as a whole, the better question to ask is 'what to do with Tom Brunansky'.

 

Remember when the Twins were posting such a high team BB rate a couple of seasons ago (led by Dozier and Willingham I think) and the players credited Bruno and Molitor, who were in their first season as coaches? Seems like a long time ago now.

[kab21]

I think the best case is that Rosario is viewed like Dozier and Plouffe are now. And really, really streaky. We saw the cold streak in April.

I wouldn't bring him up for awhile or until there is an obvious opening.

 

Kepler is a tough case. I think he needs more time in AAA but I think he is out of options after year. He kind of needs to establish himself this year.

[Shane Wahl]

Hitting is nice, but taking a few more walks would be quite helpful. And what is going on defensively with him? If he could be a positive dWAR player and get back to .700 OPS the rest of the year, I would take that.

 

Rosario-Buxton-Kepler in the OF is the only way to go. Trading off Nunez and Plouffe will mean Sano at 3B and Polanco in the mix with Escobar and Santana for SS and two bench spots.

​DH of Park and Arcia.

 

Seems pretty easy to me. Get top 300-500 prospects (team charts 10-16) for Nunez and Plouffe and be happy that both the youth movement has arrived and that positional weirdness is pretty much taken care of.

 

[dbminn]

 

I think Sano and Buxton were top 10 and 5 talents at one point.....should we expect Buxton to struggle like this, and still think he's elite?

 

Also, those are some seriously cherry picked names, I can't imagine those are the only 4 players to excel....maybe Bryant did too...maybe some Mets pitchers did too. That's about the worst example of just making "stats" up ever, frankly.

 

Please reread the post - I said "position players". The thread is about Rosario and if he should be starting with the Twins. And yes, Bryant should be included. Now we're at 5 in 400. Doesn't change much. Franco is playing well in Philly but he had about 1000 AA/AAA PA too. Cherry picking? Provide some real support for your argument.

 

Buxton missed a year of playing time and is 22 years old. He will develop to be at least a very good and probably an excellent ballplayer. He just needs some more experience.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Please reread the post - I said "position players". The thread is about Rosario and if he should be starting with the Twins. And yes, Bryant should be included. Now we're at 5 in 400. Doesn't change much. Franco is playing well in Philly but he had about 1000 AA/AAA PA too. Cherry picking? Provide some real support for your argument.

 

Buxton missed a year of playing time and is 22 years old. He will develop to be at least a very good and probably an excellent ballplayer. He just needs some more experience.

 

Are you saying you wen thru all "400" position players, and looked to see if they were good right away? 

 

How about Cabrera? Stanton? Joe Mauer?

[Shane Wahl]

A late September lineup of:

​Buxton, CF (or maybe Polanco, SS)

Mauer, 1B

Sano, 3B

Arcia/Park DH

​Kepler, RF

​Polanco, SS (or Buxton, CF)

​Dozier, 2B

​Garver, C

​Rosario, LF

 

​Would have me watching the Twins. And viewing Eddie as the 9 guy might be helpful.
 

[dbminn]

 

Are you saying you wen thru all "400" position players, and looked to see if they were good right away? 

 

How about Cabrera? Stanton? Joe Mauer?

 

I looked at current age on FanGraphs and how many relatively young players are on the leaderboard. Didn't want to get into how many players per year make it, just the most recent ones. Checked those who are peers or just ahead of the current crop of Twins. I should've used the word "recent" in my original comment. 

 

The argument still holds - most players need a significant number of PA at AA or above (including MLB) to get to their potential. Nearly all of the time, that means they're at least 24.

 

Stanton is showing he still has growing pains. He hasn't hit a lick: .194/.303/.418. Probably has some residual fear from his terrible injury.

Edited June 15, 2016 by dbminn

[Thrylos]

 

A late September lineup of:

​Buxton, CF (or maybe Polanco, SS)

Mauer, 1B

Sano, 3B

Arcia/Park DH

​Kepler, RF

​Polanco, SS (or Buxton, CF)

​Dozier, 2B

​Garver, C

​Rosario, LF

 

​Would have me watching the Twins. And viewing Eddie as the 9 guy might be helpful.
 

 

Other than Dozier who should be gone, I wouldn't mind this lineup in principle.

 

That said, I think that:

 

a. they should play Grossman (who is just 26) until he cools off.  He earned a starting job right now over Rosario

b. the other guy who earned at least a trial job over Rosario (and even over Kepler whose OPS is under .600) is Daniel Palka who leads an organization hurting for LH power with 16 HRs and whose OPS is hovering around .900 in AA

 

 

Edited June 15, 2016 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

I looked at current age on FanGraphs and how many relatively young players are on the leaderboard. Didn't want to get into how many players per year make it, just the most recent ones. Checked those who are peers or just ahead of the current crop of Twins. I should've used the word "recent" in my original comment. 

 

The argument still holds - most players need a significant number of PA at AA or above (including MLB) to get to their potential. Nearly all of the time, that means they're at least 24.

 

Stanton is showing he still has growing pains. He hasn't hit a lick: .194/.303/.418. Probably has some residual fear from his terrible injury.

 

I agree, players need more time at AA and AAA, and less in A ball and pre-A ball....we agree on that.

 

I think you are underestimating that success rate of the #1 prospect in baseball, and also how fast/young elite players actually come up. There was a study on FG (I think) a couple years ago that showed most / many ELITE players come and are good from age 21/22. Now, maybe all the ranking sites/people are wrong, maybe Sano and Buxton are both not elite. Maybe losing a year to injury put them back. I don't know what it is.....but I don't think it is unreasonable to wonder why this team is filled with old, bad players, this far into the rebuild. And almost none of the farmhands have turned out to add value yet. Gibson is the best to come up in the last 4 years.......isn't he?

 

We are probably quibbling over the edge an argument we actually agree on. The Twins have done a poor job of developing players in the last 10 years......pretty much no one has come up and been good right away, and sustained that success.....and these are the reasons they are so terrible.

[dbminn]

 

We are probably quibbling over the edge an argument we actually agree on. The Twins have done a poor job of developing players in the last 10 years......pretty much no one has come up and been good right away, and sustained that success.....and these are the reasons they are so terrible.

 

You forgot one thing - they did a lousy job of selecting/signing players the last 10 years, at least until they moved to the top of the draft order (and Smith signed some decent international players). I think that's been even a bigger problem.

 

There are more than enough reasons to complain about the Twins. I just don't think the development of the position prospects has been unusual given their age, injuries and experience. It just hurts more when the team has been awful.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The issue is the Twins player development.  Do we have the right coaches to lift the players to the MLB level?   Buxton and Kepler are close, but should be better.  Other teams bring  up 21 - 22 year olds (even a few teens) and they transition.  Why do our players from the top MiLB system fail to make the jump with style?  Rosario and Santana do great and then fall flat their second year (is this just sophmore slump or coaching?) Kepler and Buxton continue to struggle showing a flash at bat, but no consistency.  I hope Duffey does well today, but his last six games are not promising, Berrios and Chaguois have been handled poorly and had their confidence shaken, we keep picking up dregs instead of moving minor league relievers up.  Why does it take players to reach near their peak ages in the Twins system before they shine?  

That is a very fair question and its definitely one component of the problem. I think its too early to pass any judgement on Buxton and Kepler, especially after the way they've been handled. Rosario and Santana fell a little further than most expected but both were free swingers with little to no command of the strike zone so it isn't a shock to see the MLB struggles. If dregs are in place because players in the minors aren't quite ready to move then I'm alright with it (admittedly its hard to watch though.) If dregs are in place because because the FO did nothing all winter long and placed the only chance for success  on the shoulders of unproven/young players then its a problem. I understand everybody wants to see the prospects get time. I do too. I just think there has to be a plan B and C when it becomes evident that some prospects need more time. There clearly were no such backup plans as the Twins were drunk off the aberration that was the 2015 record. At this point its hard to see what plan A was as well. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This. There is no hurry to get him up here, I don't think he's out of options (Polanco, Arcia)....why the rush on this guy? There are guys to rush, there are guys to work on.

 

I'd rather they rotate the 4 guys that are up here, and see what Arcia can or cannot do. If anyone should be up, it is Polanco. But, once again, they appear to have a guy nearly out of options that they have very little MLB information on. Hard to believe.

and very little high minors info as well. We know he can ride a bench in the bigs like a pro, not much else

[jorgenswest]

Buxton and Sano should be set aside from the guys like Rosario, Arcia and Polanco that have made an a appearance on someone's top 100 list. You hope they can be moved quickly. Buxton was moved up two levels a year and hit AA in his second full season. Unfortunately he was injured after 3 plate appearances at the level and lost significant time. Sano hit AA at age 20 and then unfortunately lost his age 21 season to Tommy John. The Twins correctly moved them quickly to AA. Injuries and not the Twins management slowed or altered their career path.

 

It is the other guys that really needed the significant time in AA/AAA. It is guys that you hope make a significant contribution through their prime 5 seasons from 26-30. It is guys like Rosario, Polanco, Arcia, Santana, Kepler and Hicks that might be better in their primes if they are given that chance to develop in the upper minors. Utilize their options to get them significant time at AAA. Expect struggle when they are 24-25 and are out of options. Play them through those struggles.

[KGB]

 

Max Kepler is arguably now the Twins' hottest prospect and Rosario's minor league numbers are better than Kepler's so no reason to give up on the kid this early. I believe he's always been a bit streaky throughout his career so I'd give him another shot real soon.

Agree, Kepler had just the one breakout year in 2015 where Rosario had just the one bad year in 2014.  But Kepler is out of options this year, so I think giving him a long look this year will be beneficial.  Let Rosario continue to do well in AAA, hopefully they open some roster spots around the trade deadline.

 

Next year hopefully Buxton is an solid option and you can have Grossman, Rosario and Kepler battle it out for the other 2 spots and the 4th outfield position.

[alarp33]

 

Like all of this except the DH spot.  Park isn't ready for MLB pitching and Arcia isn't going to make it. Both he and Park are clueless at the plate right now and are close to automatic outs. Arcia is and always will be a butcher in the OF. Park needs to be in AAA (maybe give Vargas a shot?) and Arcia is unfortunately destined for another organization. I live in LA and was at the game last night. The Angels just toyed with Arcia, knowing they could get him out on a fastball/change up combination any time they wanted to with almost no chance of him getting a hit. It was hard to watch.  I now understand why Molitor doesn't want to play him.  I can't blame him.

 

Arcia being a butcher in the OF seems a bit irrelevant when discussing the DH spot.  Odd that the Angels knew they could get him out anytime they wanted too, but chose not to earlier in the year when he mashed vs them in a 3 game series, including a GW home run

[dxpavelka]

Whatever decisions are made regarding outfielders must be made keeping in mind that sooner (likely) or later the glass slipper will shatter and Robbie Grossman will return to being--Robbie Grossman.

[jorgenswest]

Is Kepler out of options? He and Polanco both used options 2014,2015 and 2016. A player can get a fourth option year if they 5 or fewer seasons of professional baseball. Seasons are 90 days or more so short seasons won't count. Kepler may qualify for a fourth option. Polanco is similar but had a combined season in the Dominican League (starting May 29) and GCL (ending August 28) in 2010 as a 16 year old.

 

I think it will help the development of both to play in AAA this year. Give Arcia consistent playing time through at least July.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

In my opinion, ER is simply a 4th OF'r. A very low OBP player, without enough power to make up for the lack of getting on base. His defense and speed is good, but still not elite enough to make up for how flawed he is as a hitter.

 

Clearly he is not using this demotion to learn how to have a better approach, so I would get drastic with him. Partly kidding and partly not, I'd tell him that he will not even be considered for any sort of call up until he reaches 15-20 walks...and see what happens then. Would he even get to that with that knowledge or would it force him to address the issues knowing if he doesn't he won't be back. Maybe 10 walks would be more fair to him.

[jimmer]

Lat year,Rosario had an unsustainable amount of triples that inflated his slg% which inflated his OPS. he got on base less than 29% of the time. Not sure that showed us he could really be a good offensive corner OF in the majors.

 

Getting on base so seldomly. along with all his mental mistakes in the field, is hard to swallow.

Edited June 15, 2016 by jimmer

[Thrylos]

 

Is Kepler out of options? He and Polanco both used options 2014,2015 and 2016. A

 

 

in 2014 Kepler's highest level was the Miracle - no MLB time then

[raindog]

He will never, ever, ever, ever have sustained success if he doesn't learn to walk a little bit. There is no way I would bring him up right now. He hasn't learned anything.

[Taildragger8791]

 

in 2014 Kepler's highest level was the Miracle - no MLB time then

 

Kepler had to be put on the 40-man starting in 2014, so an option was burned even though he stayed in A+ ball the entire time.

[tobi0040]

A late September lineup of:

 

​Buxton, CF (or maybe Polanco, SS)

Mauer, 1B

Sano, 3B

Arcia/Park DH

​Kepler, RF

​Polanco, SS (or Buxton, CF)

​Dozier, 2B

​Garver, C

​Rosario, LF

 

​Would have me watching the Twins. And viewing Eddie as the 9 guy might be helpful.

It is really sad that we need to think about this lineup in terms of late September. This should have been it in mid-May.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is Kepler out of options? He and Polanco both used options 2014,2015 and 2016. A player can get a fourth option year if they 5 or fewer seasons of professional baseball. Seasons are 90 days or more so short seasons won't count. Kepler may qualify for a fourth option. Polanco is similar but had a combined season in the Dominican League (starting May 29) and GCL (ending August 28) in 2010 as a 16 year old.

You are correct -- Kepler qualifies for a 4th option year in 2017.  Polanco does not, unfortunately, by the slim margin of 3 days in 2010.

 

Would be interesting to hear exactly why the Twins split up Polanco's rookie league season in 2010.  It shouldn't have been an oversight, he was a notable signing in 2009, and he wasn't on any fast track either (didn't reach full season ball until 2013).  Like Kepler, he's exactly the kind of guy you keep in rookie league ball and under 90 active days for a few years.  Even if they wanted to move him out of the DOSL and into the GCL for a while that first summer, I think they could have shut him down 3-7 days early and assigned him back to the DOSL on paper to keep him under 90 days.

[d-mac]

 

This team needs to make a lot of changes. 

 

My guess is that this team will send down Kepler once Santana is eligible to come off the DL. I think that would be a mistake. But I think most of what this front office does is a mistake.

 

I would release Santana or try trading him shortly after putting him back in. He's not a good enough defender to warrant his weak bat.

 

I would trade Plouffe and put Sano there once he gets off the DL. You could trade Plouffe now, in fact, and use Santana as a super utility until Sano gets off the DL. 

 

I would strongly consider trading Dozier so I could open up a spot for Jorge Polanco, who has demonstrated an ability to hit at the major league level. Maybe Dozier's recent improvement at the plate will generate some interest. Maybe monkeys might fly out of my butt.

 

Once you get rid of Santana, bring back Rosario and rotate your four outfielders - Buxton, Kepler, Rosario and Grossman -- with Arcia playing every so often but mostly spelling Park at DH while Kepler gets a time or two at first base.

 

Also, release Kurt Suzuki and call up John Ryan Murphy. It's time to focus on the future.

https://cdn.discourse.org/boingboing/uploads/default/original/3X/7/c/7c0008a149340e1f88c21ecca456c68ac24ac184.gif