Article: Seth's Midseason Top 40 Twins Prospects: Part 3 (1-10)

[nater79a]

I like Seth's plan on Tyler Jay.  Was thinking they'd just taper off his innings with the Miracle. But maybe give him a look in the 'pen at AA just as a carrot and a reward for a solid season. Then, in 2017 start him again in Fort Myers, and if he comes out of the chute fast, get him into the Chattanooga rotation by May.

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Some of the 11 through 40 picks bewildered me but I think Seth pretty much nailed 1 to 10.

Though, I'd flip Berrios and Kepler, mainly because pitching is going to have a bigger impact on turning this thing around.

[theJemmer]

 

I reminded him of that 2 weeks ago. He's got an .896 OPS since then.

Thanks so much.  Now about the defense...

[AZTwin]

The twins have a number of young arms that are going to come up at the same time and give the team a very strong rotation.  Just think about it for a minute... I think Tyler Jay will be our #1, Berios/Gonsalves our #2/#3.  Kohl Stewart has potential to be a 2 and we don't even need him to be, he can be our #4.   Then we have a lot of young guns that are not as far advanced but have a lot of potential like Jorge/Romero etc.   Our rotation in the majors is very rough at the moment, but the future looks very promising.

[twinssouth]

Been out of town past couple days and noticed your top10 Seth. Glad to see you had Kepler1, Berrios 2. Totally agree with the ranking. While Berrios is polished for his age, Kepler has so much natural ability. By The time players reach AA, most of them appear mechanic driven from all the coaching they have had. Then there's Kepler. He just stands out with his natural talent and can take a game over. Games last year I saw a walk, stole 2nd, easily scored on 1 out single, next at bat doubles, then scored, and etc. it seems like he's always on base.

 

Agree on all the rest, possibly Polanco higher. His bat is something else.

 

I agree on Jay over Gonsalves but barely. Before last years draft, more than one scout said if Jay had been starting, he would have been in play for 1st pick.

 

Great to see JT in top 10 and overcoming injuries and coming back with a vengeance. Here again, I like to compare our top 4 relievers (Chargois, Melotakis, Burdi and Reed) and I have them ranked in that order. JT gets a lot of movement with his FB, same as Reed and Melotakis.

 

Great job Seth

[twinssouth]

I don't find prospects as encouraging as I used to, because the Twins haven't generally been able to translate prospect talent into performance at the MLB level. If anything I'm more worried for the prospects because they are in a failing organization.

 

 

 

Also, wanted to add, the Twins Farm System is top notch in developing these kids, one of the best, if not the best with great coaching, facilities and top notch minor league affiliates. The kids don't see themselves in a failing organization, only the parent club meets that definition.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Also, wanted to add, the Twins Farm System is top notch in developing these kids, one of the best, if not the best with great coaching, facilities and top notch minor league affiliates. The kids don't see themselves in a failing organization, only the parent club meets that definition.

 

Then why don't they turn into big leaguers?

[Otto von Ballpark]

But I'm sorry.. "please compare Polanco's 48 MLB at bats spread out over 3 seasons and his 113 AAA at bats this year, to Kepler's entire career" is laugh out loud funny.

 

Maybe I am reading it wrong, but I didn't think that was the comparison implied. Just that Polanco's recent numbers stack up pretty well with Kepler's recent numbers, and he is younger and potentially plays a more important defensive position.

[alarp33]

Maybe I am reading it wrong, but I didn't think that was the comparison implied. Just that Polanco's recent numbers stack up pretty well with Kepler's recent numbers, and he is younger and potentially plays a more important defensive position.

Only looking at Polanco's 160 at bats in his specified sample vs Kepler's entire career is a terrible example. If we only want to look at recent history, then Kepler was the MVP of the league they both played in during 2015....

[ashbury]

he is younger

By five months.

 

I am one of the stronger advocates here for age adjustment when evaluating prospects, but this is cutting it awfully fine. Especially if comparing a player from a baseball playing country to one that is not.

 

What next, adjusting Ozzie and Jose Canseco's stats by birth order?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Only looking at Polanco's 160 at bats in his specified sample vs Kepler's entire career is a terrible example.

I think you are the only one who read Thrylos' statement as "Polanco's recent numbers vs. Kepler's career numbers".  Go back and read it again, that wasn't explicitly written nor do I think it was even implied (especially considering the same post invoked their similar ages, which implies the author is far more interested in their current place on the development curve than minor league career numbers, which very few people cite as meaningful, ever).

 

And frankly, Polanco compares pretty well, especially with the added potential to be a middle infielder.  I have no problem with Kepler being ahead of Polanco, but I think it is fair to question how Kepler would be ranked #1 and Polanco #6 at this point.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By five months.

 

I am one of the stronger advocates here for age adjustment when evaluating prospects, but this is cutting it awfully fine. Especially if comparing a player from a baseball playing country to one that is not.

It was just a statement of fact, they are very close in age.  It made no absolute claims based on that fact that could be considered "cutting it awfully fine."  It wasn't claiming that Polanco is better than Kepler due to age, or that he can develop more, etc.  Just that, if Kepler gets points for taking a step forward on the development curve in the past 12 months, then Polanco might deserve similar credit for his recent performances too because he is similarly young.  Not necessarily equivalent credit, if Kepler gets bonus points for his unlikely origins, but comparable enough to cast doubt on the 5 spot gap between them in Seth's rankings (the context of the original post).

[bird]

 

Then why don't they turn into big leaguers?

 

 

But they do. At a success rate pretty much the same or better than that of other organizations.

[alarp33]

 

I think you are the only one who read Thrylos' statement as "Polanco's recent numbers vs. Kepler's career numbers".  Go back and read it again, that wasn't explicitly written nor do I think it was even implied (especially considering the same post invoked their similar ages, which implies the author is far more interested in their current place on the development curve than minor league career numbers, which very few people cite as meaningful, ever).

 

And frankly, Polanco compares pretty well, especially with the added potential to be a middle infielder.  I have no problem with Kepler being ahead of Polanco, but I think it is fair to question how Kepler would be ranked #1 and Polanco #6 at this point.

 

Maybe I read it wrong, but the crux of the argument in that post seemed to place great significance on 2016 Jorge Polanco.  Again, I have no issues with someone calling Polanco an equal or greater prospect than Kepler, I just think breaking down stats into super small sample sizes isn't that informative.  

 

2015 MiLB numbers;

 

Polanco - .288/.339/.386

Kepler - .322/.416/.531

 

That's not an insignificant difference. I have no idea if Polanco can play SS long term, but if he gets added pts for SS, then Kepler should for CF as well... the Twins seem equally likely to play Kepler in CF as Polanco at SS.  

 

I think they both have potential to be High OBP guys that this lineup desperately needs. 

Edited June 13, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

 

But they do. At a success rate pretty much the same or better than that of other organizations.

 

In the last 10 years? Wanna take that bet?

 

And yes, the last 10 years matter more than guys drafted 25 years ago. The game has changed.

[kab21]

 

Maybe I am reading it wrong, but I didn't think that was the comparison implied. Just that Polanco's recent numbers stack up pretty well with Kepler's recent numbers, and he is younger and potentially plays a more important defensive position.

It is more about projection imo. Polanco projects as a fine player but Kepler has far more potential offensively. 

I could see a very good argument for placing Polanco as high as #3 and Kepler at #2 though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe I read it wrong, but the crux of the argument in that post seemed to place great significance on 2016 Jorge Polanco.  Again, I have no issues with someone calling Polanco an equal or greater prospect than Kepler, I just think breaking down stats into super small sample sizes isn't that informative.  

 

2015 MiLB numbers;

 

Polanco - .288/.339/.386

Kepler - .322/.416/.531

 

That's not an insignificant difference. I have no idea if Polanco can play SS long term, but if he gets added pts for SS, then Kepler should for CF as well... the Twins seem equally likely to play Kepler in CF as Polanco at SS.  

 

I think they both have potential to be High OBP guys that this lineup desperately needs. 

That's fair, although I think Polanco's admittedly small MLB sample is encouraging -- he's looked pretty darn comfortable as a MLB hitter from day 1, which is refreshing.

 

I won't quibble any further with their prospect rankings, I am more concerned with the lack of MLB opportunity for Polanco.

[blindeke]

 

...looks like your wish has been granted !

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=min

 

WHOOPSIES!

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like Seth's plan on Tyler Jay.  Was thinking they'd just taper off his innings with the Miracle. But maybe give him a look in the 'pen at AA just as a carrot and a reward for a solid season. Then, in 2017 start him again in Fort Myers, and if he comes out of the chute fast, get him into the Chattanooga rotation by May.

 

That's maybe my plan for 2016, but it certainly isn't for 2017. I'd have him star, as a starter, in Chattanooga. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

.. the Twins seem equally likely to play Kepler in CF as Polanco at SS. 

 

 

Unless they trade Buxton or he flops, Kepler will not play in CF.   Plus, he really is not a centerfielder.

[alarp33]

Unless they trade Buxton or he flops, Kepler will not play in CF.   Plus, he really is not a centerfielder.

I think this year has proved we should never pretend to know what the Twins will do.... But he's made as many starts in CF as they've given Polanco at SS this year. Plouffe and Escobar have each been on the DL so there's been plenty of opportunity to get him in lineup. (I'm not saying he's not a SS, I'm saying it sure appears the Twins don't think he is)

[FormerMinnasotan]

But they do. At a success rate pretty much the same or better than that of other organizations.

I disagree, just look at Jose Berrios. Stud starter until this year and mysteriously the Twins can't translate Berrios' top tier talent into a top tier starting pitcher. It'll be the same when Stewart, Jay, Gonsalves, and Romero come up to the bigs. Pathetic, really...

[Mike Sixel]

 

I disagree, just look at Jose Berrios. Stud starter until this year and mysteriously the Twins can't translate Berrios' top tier talent into a top tier starting pitcher. It'll be the same when Stewart, Jay, Gonsalves, and Romero come up to the bigs. Pathetic, really...

 

I think it is a bit early to say that about Berrios......very early. And probably wrong.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I think it is a bit early to say that about Berrios......very early. And probably wrong.

First I hope I am wrong (I would love Berrios to be as good if not better than advertised). Secondly why is he struggling so much. A few clunkers are normal as he is human, but honestly most of the season for Berrios has a struggle. That's no like Berrios. At the rate Jose is pitching he won't even be called up in September as he can't even dominate AAA hitters right now. Sorry, just frustrated in the whole season and with Berrios' and Gonsalves' recent struggles it is hard to be over joyed when our top prospects aren't playing up to their potential.

[Mr. Brooks]

Barring catastrophic injury, Berrios floor is a 4th starter.

 

That's his absolute floor.

 

Never ceases to amaze me how such tiny sample sizes can change people's perceptions.