Article: Will The Real Eduardo Nunez Please Stand Up?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I see where you are coming from in a generic sense, but the cards are already stacked against a Nunez extension, by virtue of his age, salary, remaining year of control, past history, likely market, etc.  None of that changes no matter how deeply you analyze his approach, swing mechanics, etc. right now.

 

And that opinion I'm not against   I just don't like being distorted, most people don't.  I said as much that I'd probably trade the guy.  I just think that it's prudent to look at it closer even if the final conclusion is to trade him. 

 

That said, I'd really like to see Parker's analysis of his hitting.  I'd be curious if Nunez is doing something noticeably different to correct a mechanical flaw. 

[Mike Sixel]

He is 29 and under control for a few years. Zero reason to extend him. None. I have no idea who he is now, or the next two years, let's hope he is good.

[nicksaviking]

 

Nope, we traded Miguel Sulbaran for him, and Sulbaran was previously acquired for Drew Butera.

 

Who was acquired for Luis Castillo who was acquired for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler.

 

We have a pretty good chain here, let's trade Nunez and keep it going!

[LaBombo]

.275/.303/.456

 

That's Nunez's slash line if you knock it down 60 points to put it in line with where it would probably be if his batting average on balls in play were at his career average.

 

His lower walk rate and higher K rate are compensated for by his slightly higher LD% and medium/hard contact numbers,  so maybe call that a wash.  The big changes are his much higher fly ball rate, way up from a 2015 GB/FB of 2.10 to a 2016 rate of 1.34,   and a home run rate on fly balls of 13.2%,  up from 9.5%.

 

Most projections had Nunez putting up a .280/.320/.420 or so line this year.   With his stellar start,  a .295/.315/.450 season seems like a good possibility.   That would put him at the high end of 'average' offensively at third,  and sneak him into the top 10 at shortstop.

 

At age 29 it may be that he's blooming late into a diamond in the rough,  or it could be that he's just the result of the mathematical dictate that even a team like the Twins, having a thousand things go wrong with its season,  will have a few things go right, like an average player having a good year at the plate.

 

My guess is that Nunez is having his outlier career year,  and it will probably end up going to waste other than being one of the few individual bright spots in a bad season.   And if that's the case then an extension would have no value other than generating deceptively positive PR for marketing.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by LaBombo

[ashbury]

Personally I would sign him to a 4 year contract.

Expect it.  

FWIW Molitor is on record as saying "slow down, slow down".

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/al-notes-angels-bosox-twins-rays.html

 

“It’s a slippery slope as far as projecting a guy into [an everyday] role who has played well for a couple months..."

 

I suppose it's fun to throw shade, that Ryan might sign a utility guy to multi years, but that's all it is.

[ashbury]

I'm Eduardo Nunez. Yes, I'm the real Eduardo Nunez. All you other Eduardo Nunez's are just imitating. 

[SwainZag]

If I am not mistaken next year is the last year he will be under control right?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I suppose it's fun to throw shade, that Ryan might sign a utility guy to multi years, but that's all it is.

FWIW, Hocking, Punto, and Carroll all received multi year deals from TR.

[Deduno Abides]

He is 29 and under control for a few years. Zero reason to extend him. None. I have no idea who he is now, or the next two years, let's hope he is good.

 

Trade him. I've always thought we were too hard on him; now, we're getting too enamored, like happened with Josh Willingham. He's 29 and having the best year of his career, with a high BABIP, so the most likely future for him is below where he is now. His true talent may be .275/.335/.415, which is still valuable for someone who can wear an infield glove, but still below where he is today. Sell high, don't wait for his value to dissipate like Dozier. A contender in need of an infielder is most likely to overpay now.

[Pius Jefferson]

I wouldn't put it past the Twins not trade Nunez at peak value because of the All-Star game. 

[twinssporto]

I think the real Nunez stood up tonight.  Two homer runs.  Impressive!

[gil4]

 

Nunez has evolved into one of the most consistent hitters in the Twins line-up at the beginning of the 2016 campaign.  Laughing as i read that- Who are the others?

Plouffe has been pretty consistent.  (You didn't ask for good, just consistent.)

[stringer bell]

 

I wouldn't put it past the Twins not trade Nunez at peak value because of the All-Star game. 

His value will probably go up after the All-Star break. Yes, I believe in some respect an All-Star nod is a consideration, but not many trades happen until after the AS game. Nuñez' story is a really good one for the All-Star game and I will be very happy for him if he does make the team. I'll also be happy for him if he's traded to a contender.

[Dantes929]

 

In what way?  Other than they both have BABIP's quite a bit higher than their career averages this season I don't see any similarities.  Zobrist walks (12.3% career, 16.7% this year), Nunez doesn't (5.1% career, 3.1% this year). Career OBP Zobrist .358. Nunez .316. Career Slg% Zobrist .434 Nunez .406. ISO.  Zobrist .166, Nunez .130. Zobrist, switch hitter. Nunez, RHH.

 

 They both have played more than 1 position?  

Kind of funny.     He said Nunez was a poor man's Zobrist and you pointed out all the reasons Zobrist is better.   If Nunez was better then I would imagine Zobrist would be described as a poor man's Nunez.

[alarp33]

 

Kind of funny.     He said Nunez was a poor man's Zobrist and you pointed out all the reasons Zobrist is better.   If Nunez was better then I would imagine Zobrist would be described as a poor man's Nunez.

 

I pointed out all of the ways they are totally different players.  The only thing I could come up with that is somewhat similar is they have played different positions in their careers.  

 

If the only basis for calling someone a "poor mans so and so" is the "so and so" is better. Than I guess we can refer to Robbie Grossman as a poor man's Mike Trout. Or Pat Dean as a poor man's Jon Lester... but we wouldn't really get any analysis from that.  

[ashbury]

FWIW, Hocking, Punto, and Carroll all received multi year deals from TR.

I forget exactly about Hocking's case, but both Punto and Carroll were deemed starters by the manager, and indeed both were given "starter's minutes". Carroll's multi-year was "two", I forget Hocking's or Punto's.

 

Molitor by contrast is expressing doubt for public consumption about Nunez's qualification to be a starter.

 

I will say, after I went on record in the early off-season that Sano would never see an inning of work in RF, I am hesitant to guarantee that a four-year contract (which I was responding to) for Nunez is impossible. But until such a contract occurs, it is indeed throwing shade to imply that it would be just typical of this organization.

[magiklair]

 

Personally I would sign him to a 4 year contract.

I'm sure the front office is chomping at the bit to do so. Has one good year, lock him up. Hughes, Suzuki, etc.

[gil4]

 

Kind of funny.     He said Nunez was a poor man's Zobrist and you pointed out all the reasons Zobrist is better.   If Nunez was better then I would imagine Zobrist would be described as a poor man's Nunez.

I think he was pointing out that their strength and weaknesses don't really line up.  Tim Raines was a poor man's Rickey Henderson.  (OK, not a poor man's.  The slightly less wealthy man's...)  Usually the "poor man's" description is used for someone who has similar strengths and weaknesses, but the strengths are not quite as strong or the weaknesses are a bit more pronounced.

 

 Nunez and Zobrist are so dissimilar that the comparison doesn't work.

[alarp33]

 

I think he was pointing out that their strength and weaknesses don't really line up.  Tim Raines was a poor man's Rickey Henderson.  (OK, not a poor man's.  The slightly less wealthy man's...)  Usually the "poor man's" description is used for someone who has similar strengths and weaknesses, but the strengths are not quite as strong or the weaknesses are a bit more pronounced.

 

 Nunez and Zobrist are so dissimilar that the comparison doesn't work.

 

Thank you for answering that much better than I did.  This is exactly what I meant by pointing that out. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I will say, after I went on record in the early off-season that Sano would never see an inning of work in RF, I am hesitant to guarantee that a four-year contract (which I was responding to) for Nunez is impossible. But until such a contract occurs, it is indeed throwing shade to imply that it would be just typical of this organization.

Agreed, I don't think a 4 year deal is likely.  I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them eventually buy out his last arb year and another year or two, though -- this is the same organization that tore up the last two years of Hughes' original deal to extend him 3 more beyond that, and who -- at the July trade deadline -- saw fit to lock up Suzuki as their starting catcher for 2 years, apparently content with his first half over performance and fearing having to find a catcher elsewhere...

[jorgenswest]

It would be unwise to extend him based on two months or a half season. It would also be unwise for a team to trade for him valued at his half season performance.