Why Not Abad?

[Loosey]

In yesterday's game after Jepsen loaded up the bases with one out, Brad Miller came to bat.  A lefty.  Jepsen was getting hit and walking guys.  Why was Abad not brought in to get one out?

 

Molitor, I believe, was asked about this yesterday and his response was that if Abad came in and got Miller, the right handed Longoria was up after him. 

 

That answer has bothered me on many levels. 

1) Who cares if there is a righty after Miller.  Bring in a RH reliever to get Longoria.  This seems like lazy managing to me.  And he almost failed to consider the Double Play opportunity.

 

2) Molitor failed to realize that the odds of leaving Jepsen in greatly were in the Rays favor.  A flyball (which happened) gives them the lead, a walk, a hit, any of them give the Rays the lead.  Yes, any of those things could happen to Abad as well, but the matchup is more in Abad's favor than Jepsen's.  

 

3) Over thinking seems to hurt Molitor.  He does it a lot.  Over thinks one future scenario that isn't as important as the present one and gets burned on it.  (Bunting 15 times a game, pinch running, not pinch hitting a catcher bringing them down to 1 catcher.

 

Did anyone else think this when he said that.  Does Molitor know a pitcher can come in an throw to 1 batter and then leave?  I assume he knows they can do that, why didn't he? 

[wsnydes]

Molitor has shown a very stubborn desire to keep treating Jepsen like a legitimate closer.  This is apparently based solely on the notion that he has closer experience.  While I understand that in April, two months have gone by and nothing has changed.  How anybody else hasn't been given that opportunity is mind boggling.    

[Rosterman]

For a guy who changes pitchers on a whim, this year has been a disaster for ANYONE establishing their role with the team. How many different lineups have we had so far this season. How many pitching changes within an inning? If you, as a manager, are running the game...the Twins should be doing everything possible to get runners on base (consistent bunting, over-bunting if it will get a .230 hitter on base). Working with players to pull the ball, sacrifice, hit-and-run...not just swing. The pressure of a stolen base, or taking that extra base. 

 

The team is LOSING. They have nothing to lose by playing hardball, by being more aggressive. Pitchers challenge the hitter. 

 

And this quote: "I know where I need to get to. Stuff-wise, the velocity is coming. I feel great as far as stuff. Now it's about putting it together. I'm going to keep going out there and keep battling. What else are you going to do?" -- Jepsen, who suffered his fifth loss and saw his ERA rise to 6.26

 

We are a third of the way thru the season and he knows where he needs to go!?! The velocity is coming?!? Maybe it went already. Spring training is to get this stuff under control. Everytime you show up to work you are expected to do the best job possible with the tools that you have developed...be it him, me, you in our daily grind. Yes, lief and work is a daily grind. You do have good days and abd days. You tell yourself many a time that you stayed up too late or did too much of something and maybe the next day is far from perfect...but if you get called on not doing your job...and it keeps happening, you lose your job (and all of us schmucks just get unemployed rather than what-we-would've-made-if-still-working-at-the-job-for-rest-of-year-pay).

 

I would really LIKE to know what is going thru Molitor's mind. 

[alarp33]

It should be pointed out, Molitor did the exact same thing on Friday night. He left a tired Nolasco (107 pitches) face Miller for the 4TH TIME with runners on 1st + 3rd with 2 outs, rather than bring in Abad to get him. 

[Loosey]

 

It should be pointed out, Molitor did the exact same thing on Friday night. He left a tired Nolasco (107 pitches) face Miller for the 4TH TIME with runners on 1st + 3rd with 2 outs, rather than bring in Abad to get him. 

I don't get it.  It doesn't even have to be Abad.  He has three lefties in then pen now in Boshers, Abad and Rodgers.  USE THEM when you need them. 

[Vanimal46]

I don't really get it either. Abad's not just a LOOGY and has a proven track record of getting both LH and RH hitters out. 

It's painfully obvious that Jepsen is in over his head as this team's closer/late innings guy. He needs to be a middle reliever coming in the 6-7th inning instead. At this point in the season who cares who the closer is. 

[gunnarthor]

I guess I'll join the chorus of not really getting it either.  I think it might help Jepsen mentally to be put into less stressful situations and let him build his stuff back.  And the Twins have no reason to not trade Abad at the deadline so letting him get a few more appearances (and, hopefully looking good) would increase his trade value.

I'm just not a big fan of Molitor or this coaching staff.

[spinowner]

I know most managers like to have a set closer because it helps to define bullpen roles; usually relievers perform best when they are used consistently. However, Jepsen has not been satisfactory. (Understatement of the year.) That means either find someone else to close or scrap the position of closer and pitch whoever you guess will be best in each situation. If the choice is to designate a different closer, I'd say Pressly is the closest thing we have at the moment. I don't know if he's ever done it before and he's far from a sure thing, but I don't think it could go any worse with him than what we've been getting from Jepsen.

[wsnydes]

 

I don't really get it either. Abad's not just a LOOGY and has a proven track record of getting both LH and RH hitters out. 

It's painfully obvious that Jepsen is in over his head as this team's closer/late innings guy. He needs to be a middle reliever coming in the 6-7th inning instead. At this point in the season who cares who the closer is. 

At this point, there shouldn't even be a set closer.  Play the matchups/numbers game unless somebody starts to stand out.

[Vanimal46]

 

At this point, there shouldn't even be a set closer.  Play the matchups/numbers game unless somebody starts to stand out.

Agreed. Or, what if Abad becomes the closer until the trade deadline? That way if other teams need a late innings guy he can show that he can do it. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I will take it a step further and argue that Abad should be the closer - at least until Perkins is healthy.

 

You have Rogers and Boshers in the pen for situations - give Abad a chance to close.  

 

I feel like the time to let guys work out their difficulties are over.  If guys are not turning their numbers around by now, changes need to happen.  

 

[wsnydes]

 

Agreed. Or, what if Abad becomes the closer until the trade deadline? That way if other teams need a late innings guy he can show that he can do it. 

I wouldn't have an issue with that.  Though, in some sense it would be nice to see what some of the younger guys do in those late inning situations.  I still want to see May as a starter, but if he's going to be in the bullpen I wouldn't mind seeing what he does in that 9th inning.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't really get it either. Abad's not just a LOOGY and has a proven track record of getting both LH and RH hitters out. 

 

Proven track record are 3 big words.

 

2016 off Abad:  

 

LHB: .080/ .111/.120 

RHB: .292/.320/.375

 

That looks like a proven track record for a LOOGY

 

 

[SirLoin]

 

I will take it a step further and argue that Abad should be the closer - at least until Perkins is healthy.

 

You have Rogers and Boshers in the pen for situations - give Abad a chance to close.  

 

I feel like the time to let guys work out their difficulties are over.  If guys are not turning their numbers around by now, changes need to happen.  

 

And for the love of God, bring up Chargois!!!

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Proven track record are 3 big words.

 

2016 off Abad:  

 

LHB: .080/ .111/.120 

RHB: .292/.320/.375

 

That looks like a proven track record for a LOOGY

And 2015 off Abad:

 

LHB: .277/.315/.545
RHB: .218/.330/.423

Should he be a ROOGY by these stats?

[Thrylos]

 

And 2015 off Abad:

 

LHB: .277/.315/.545
RHB: .218/.330/.423

Should he be a ROOGY by these stats?

 

He was tipping his pitches last season.  Was an aberration.    ROOGY?  With a .753 Opponents OPS? UFFDA

[alarp33]

 

Proven track record are 3 big words.

 

2016 off Abad:  

 

LHB: .080/ .111/.120 

RHB: .292/.320/.375

 

That looks like a proven track record for a LOOGY

 

I'm not sure in what world (other than in Twins Daily) a relievers 2 month numbers are an accurate sample size.  He's literally faced less Lefties this entire season than Nolasco faced Batters on Friday

 

2013-2015

 

.256/.309/.407  (vs lefties)

.204/.279/.321  (vs righties)

 

Nothing about his numbers scream LOOGY

[Platoon]

The question was "Why not Abad"? Which I wondered during the game, knowing that he would pitch to one guy. Likely the biggest AB of the game. Win lose or draw, Abad cannot face Longoria, especially this weekend. Personally I would have went Abad and May and went for it. As its been mentioned what is there to lose. But I had to wonder if May was hurt? If FanGraphs is correct he was last sighted on June 1st. Per FG that was his 5th appearance in 8 days, 1 ER and no hits and 8 SO in 4 IP. The previous 5games were not quite as stellar, but in 26.1 IP he has 40 SO, and 5 HR allowed. The opportunity existed, and the match ups, to get out of that jam, if one had wanted to make the two long treks to the mound. May and Tonkin are the only two that have the stuff to overpower a batter. I can't say I know this would have happened, but the chances have to be better than Jepsen getting out unscathed. I don't know if it's indecision, lack of baseball common sense, or favoritism, but something is amiss in the Twins dugout.

[DocBauer]

In a lost season, wins are still important. And by that I don't mean so the team can pull off a miracle comeback 2/3 of the season and only lose 95 games instead of 105.

 

This team HAS to be building itself for 2017 and beyond. We all know this. We all agree. Put the guys in the right spot to succeed, play the young guys that actually have a future, see what you have to build with, move some guys, etc, etc, etc. We all know the various refrains.

 

But you can do these things while still TRYING to win. Winning encourages the fan base that buys tickets and merchandise. Winning helps guys' spirits up, and hopefully helps build a competitive/winning attitude amongst those young kids.

 

But what on earth are you TRYING to do, in regard to winning, by making moves, or not making them, in a case like this? You want to win so you throw out your failed "closer" instead of playing matchups? Beyond frustrating!

[DocBauer]

I'm actually in the camp, BTW, for keeping Abad. While he is nothing elite, for a large part of his career he's been pretty solid. I like him, with Rogers, as a pair of potential lefties. Maybe 2 of 3? I just think his value may be better keeping him vs actual trade value.

[Boom Boom]

From the "Go With the Hot Hand" department, I can see why you bring in Abad there.

 

I'm just not convinced that Abad's 2016 is any less of a mirage than Jepsen's 2015.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From the "Go With the Hot Hand" department, I can see why you bring in Abad there.

 

I'm just not convinced that Abad's 2016 is any less of a mirage than Jepsen's 2015.

Sure, but maybe that nets us another prospect like Hu at the deadline...

[USAFChief]

Sure, but maybe that nets us another prospect like Hu at the deadline...

The problem with that, of course, is the very real probability that a month of Abad successfully closing makes trading him less likely.

[S.]

 

"Stuff-wise, the velocity is coming. I feel great as far as stuff. Now it's about putting it together."

Now, I'm not a baseball expert, but I'm pretty sure the time for your velocity to be coming along and "putting it together" is spring training, not June.

 

Jepsen shouldn't close another game for the Twins. Perkins shouldn't close another game for the Twins whenever he comes back. Give Abad the opportunities, get his value up a bit (assuming we get a few save opportunities before the deadline), and then flip him for anything you can get. Or, let Chargois get some experience in the bigs. At this point, the only value of having Jepsen close is to repeatedly remind Terry Ryan that he didn't do **** to fix our bullpen this offseason.

[David HK]

 

From the "Go With the Hot Hand" department, I can see why you bring in Abad there.

I'm just not convinced that Abad's 2016 is any less of a mirage than Jepsen's 2015.

True, but just like Jepsen's performance last year, why not ride that mirage as far as it goes?  

 

There is no excuse for Molly throwing him out there to fail again and again- and costing the team wins in the process.  This game just followed the same damn script as the rest of this lost season.  

 

I'm glad Bux is performing right now, and making me eat my words about keeping him in Roch for a while.  I'm also glad Kep is out there regularly, although I still think he's a little undercooked.  But by gum, leave the rest of 'em down there til the AS break, and after that, I don't want to see the likes of Jeps, Hughes, the Dozey/Plouffe 3/4 split, Zuke being the regular catcher, etc- ever again.  Get those kids up here by late July, and let 'em take their lumps the rest of the year, and get ready for 2017 and beyond.  

 

And maybe, just maybe, a new face in the dugout, please.

[dgwills]

 

Sure, but maybe that nets us another prospect like Hu at the deadline...

If so that's the case they should definitely trade him. Hu already hit AAA last I checked. We may regret that trade even though it was necessary at the time. Might as well try to break even.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I know most managers like to have a set closer because it helps to define bullpen roles; usually relievers perform best when they are used consistently. However, Jepsen has not been satisfactory. (Understatement of the year.) That means either find someone else to close or scrap the position of closer and pitch whoever you guess will be best in each situation. If the choice is to designate a different closer, I'd say Pressly is the closest thing we have at the moment. I don't know if he's ever done it before and he's far from a sure thing, but I don't think it could go any worse with him than what we've been getting from Jepsen.

 

Damn you spinowner!

I thought I had 'understatement of the year' locked up with "Dozier does not belong at the top of the order". 

 

I'll grant that you may have tied me.

[Loosey]

 

If so that's the case they should definitely trade him. Hu already hit AAA last I checked. We may regret that trade even though it was necessary at the time. Might as well try to break even.

When the Jepsen trade first happened I disliked it.  I was upset they gave up Hu (who most claimed is not a top prospect) for a guy who was essentially a middle reliever with a good fastball. 

 

Then Jepsen performed great, I ate my words.  Terry Ryan had once taken a nothing special reliever and got the best out him.  However, like Terry Ryan has also done often, he didn't know when to fold his cards and accept that he got all that he could out of middle of the road reliever.  Instead he re-upped another year hoping that 2015 wasn't a mirage.  It was. 

 

So now we are in 2016 and again I am upset they gave up Hu for Jepsen.  But it was a good trade as far as 2015 was concerned and hindsight is 20/20.

[KGB]

 

When the Jepsen trade first happened I disliked it.  I was upset they gave up Hu (who most claimed is not a top prospect) for a guy who was essentially a middle reliever with a good fastball. 

 

Then Jepsen performed great, I ate my words.  Terry Ryan had once taken a nothing special reliever and got the best out him.  However, like Terry Ryan has also done often, he didn't know when to fold his cards and accept that he got all that he could out of middle of the road reliever.  Instead he re-upped another year hoping that 2015 wasn't a mirage.  It was. 

 

So now we are in 2016 and again I am upset they gave up Hu for Jepsen.  But it was a good trade as far as 2015 was concerned and hindsight is 20/20.

I also thought the price was too high last year but his performance proved me wrong.  You had to bring him back this year and see if it was for real, but let's just be thankful Ryan didn't give him the long term extension after last year.  That would have been the normal move with players who perform great for 1/2 a season.

[whydidnt]

 

I also thought the price was too high last year but his performance proved me wrong.  You had to bring him back this year and see if it was for real, but let's just be thankful Ryan didn't give him the long term extension after last year.  That would have been the normal move with players who perform great for 1/2 a season.

I thought the price was too high last year. Yes, Jepsen pitched well, and that could have made the price worthwhile. But the fact the Twins did NOTHING else to improve the team at the same time made it a bad deal. Many of the moves the Twins make on the surface can be justified, but when you start looking at them in the whole, you see a lot of Hu for Jepsen, Ramos for Capps, type deals. Giving up a decent prospect for a middling relief pitcher is usually only a good deal if it helps put you over the top. It's a lousy deal if it helps you finish a couple games back in the playoffs.