Could Plouffe be Nontendered?

[tobi0040]

Sure.  Aggie, Gutherie, Mahomes, Walbeck, Becker, Redman, Buchanan, Kinney, Kielty, Padilla, Lohse all had over a full season of control left.  Guys like Mohr, Milton, Romero all had a full year.  Neither of those are complete lists.

With respect to Lohse, he was traded for a guy who never made it past AA. And trying to hit the manager with a bat played the biggest role in the timing of his trade

[gunnarthor]

 

I think it is going to come down to whether or not the Twins really think Sano is a 3B. Yes, I know that they have always publicly said it but I think Sano being in RF right now is partly due to their own doubts.

 

Yeah, I think that's the big issue.  If Sano can't play third, it doesn't really matter.  My thought during the off season was that the Twins sent Sano to winterball to get a better idea of his ability to play third.  They did that and proclaimed him a RFer.  

 

I do think it makes sense to trade Plouffe now, however. It's a lost year.  We can put Sano at third and see if he can fight it to a draw.  

[gunnarthor]

 

With respect to Lohse, he was traded for a guy who never made it past AA. And trying to hit the manager with a bat played the biggest role in the timing of his trade

Well, sure.  Not all those trades worked out - and some that did aren't included.  But I do think Ryan's track record shows that he'll move a player instead of getting nothing back for him. So at the end of the day, I think it's very unlikely that Plouffe is non-tendered.  

[old nurse]

Average wise cost per War in 2015 was 5.2 million. At this point for this season Plouffe would not be worth the money. The 2014-2015 Plouffe would be worth it. The question becomes did Plouffe peak or not.  If the answer is not in Ryan's mind then the player is gone umles there are no other alternatives in Ryan's viewpoint. The fans here think Sano can play adequate 3B, I am not sure Ryan thinks that.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think it is going to come down to whether or not the Twins really think Sano is a 3B. Yes, I know that they have always publicly said it but I think Sano being in RF right now is partly due to their own doubts.

 

Honestly people need to get over this mythical missed opportunity to trade Plouffe this offseason. There wasn't a market for 3B and the return would have been minimal. The better choice was to hope that an injury would happen forcing a team to offer a reasonable trade for him.

 

I don't remember hearing anyone in the Twins organization that Sano's long-term future would be at 3B.  I admit I may have missed that.

 

He has improved a lot in RF and has a heck of an arm for that position, but that's not necessarily saying a lot.  From what I saw of Sano at 3B, it didn't look like he had much range.  Coming in on a ball, not to bad.  Ranging in to his left?  Not much range.  In a fantastical world, Sano drops to around 240ish lbs. and gains some range.  I think his future is DH - 1st.  So my question is:  Plouffe at 3B and move someone out of the current DH -1st rotation [Mauer retiring in 2 year?] or push out Plouffe for a bag of peanuts and decrease defense at 3B, but increase defense in RF?  Counting on improvement in offense at both positions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure.  Aggie, Gutherie, Mahomes, Walbeck, Becker, Redman, Buchanan, Kinney, Kielty, Padilla, Lohse all had over a full season of control left.  Guys like Mohr, Milton, Romero all had a full year.  Neither of those are complete lists.

You are plumbing the depths of transactions here.  Few of these guys are even remotely comparable to a starting position player like Plouffe.  Seriously, Padilla?  Kinney?  Mahomes, Walbeck?  Redman was traded from the disabled list.  How many of these guys were actually starting when they were traded, like Plouffe presumably would be?  You may as well include Herrmann and Butera...

 

Aguilera was actually first traded a few months from free agency in 1995, then re-signed to a 3-year deal, then re-signed/extended again beyond that, before he was finally traded to the Cubs at age 37 when any "extra year of control" he may have had was pretty much meaningless.

 

You could add Span and Revere to your list, but those two had 3 and 5 years of control remaining, respectively.  Decently aggressive moves, but so early as to be very weak comparisons for Plouffe, a player basically in his 5th year of commitment from the Twins.

 

Milton might be the best, and perhaps only real comp here.  Of course, he had already completed 6 full seasons with the Twins, and we just picked up an option on his 7th year, so it's hard to argue he was traded terribly early.

[tobi0040]

Well, sure. Not all those trades worked out - and some that did aren't included. But I do think Ryan's track record shows that he'll move a player instead of getting nothing back for him. So at the end of the day, I think it's very unlikely that Plouffe is non-tendered.

There is a good chance at 10m Plouffe has no value. So I think the odds of a non tender are greater than some think.

 

37 year old Juan Uribe signed right before the season for 4 million and has out played Ploufe with a .670 OPS and positive defensive value

[wsnydes]

 

But if you have a pair of two's, you fold them. You don't hold onto them the rest of the hand and continue to put money in the middle. The move was to trade Plouffe for his market value (the best trade we could get). We are worse off with Plouffe on our team right now, at least playing 3B everyday.

Not to mention that one move would free up several logjam's and make an everyday lineup easier to field.  Holding onto him coupled with the Park signing only added to the number of puzzle pieces that didn't fit.  Trading Plouffe for whatever the market will bear was the way to go.

 

Short of that, moving Sano to RF instead of moving Plouffe there or to the bench would have been preferable to what they ultimately decided on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, sure.  Not all those trades worked out - and some that did aren't included.  But I do think Ryan's track record shows that he'll move a player instead of getting nothing back for him. So at the end of the day, I think it's very unlikely that Plouffe is non-tendered.  

I agree it's unlikely that Plouffe is non-tendered, although we disagree about the reasons.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Even if he goes on some hot streak in July, what is he going to fetch?

A contract extension?

[gunnarthor]

 

You are plumbing the depths of transactions here.  Few of these guys are even remotely comparable to a starting position player like Plouffe.  Seriously, Padilla?  Kinney?  Mahomes, Walbeck?  Redman was traded from the disabled list.  How many of these guys were actually starting when they were traded, like Plouffe presumably would be?

 

Aguilera was actually first traded a few months from free agency in 1995, then re-signed to a 3-year deal, then re-signed/extended again beyond that, before he was finally traded to the Cubs at age 37 when any "extra year of control" he may have had was pretty much meaningless.

 

You could add Span and Revere to your list, but those two had 3 and 5 years of control remaining, respectively.  Decently aggressive moves, but so early as to be very weak comparisons for Plouffe, a player basically in his 5th year of commitment from the Twins.

 

Milton might be the best, and perhaps only real comp here.  Of course, he had already completed 6 full seasons with the Twins, and we just picked up an option on his 7th year, so it's hard to argue he was traded terribly early.

Well, it seems like the goalposts keep being moved.  I believe the concern was that Ryan doesn't trade anyone until their team control was nearly done.  Well, no, that's quite clearly not true.  Now you want to look at only players moved that had team control and were starters?  Fine, Knobby, AJ, Dougie, Walker, Span, Revere, Keilty, Redmond, Lohse, Slowey.  Again, probably not a complete list.

 

I guess I'm just not seeing the concern.  Ryan's record shows he'll trade away a guy at any time.  I think the Twins hung onto Plouffe b/c they thought they'd be in contention this year and playing with him at third and Sano in right gave them a better chance.  He's struggling a bit but he's been a solid player the last few years.  He's probably not cooked at this point.  mlbtraderumors had him in their top 10 list of trade players.  

[Winston Smith]

If this team ever is a serious playoff team in the future Plouffe will be long gone. Keeping him now only clogs up an already imbalanced roster. Trade him for whatever give 3B for the rest of the season to Sano and at seasons end you might know what you have for the future. Sano at 3B and Kepler in RF is greater than Plouffe at 3B and Sano in RF, imo.

If Terry hasn't already called the Mets he isn't doing his job.

[wsnydes]

 

If this team ever is a serious playoff team in the future Plouffe will be long gone. Keeping him now only clogs up an already imbalanced roster. Trade him for whatever give 3B for the rest of the season to Sano and at seasons end you might know what you have for the future. Sano at 3B and Kepler in RF is greater than Plouffe at 3B and Sano in RF, imo.

If Terry hasn't already called the Mets he isn't doing his job.

Trading Nunez should also be on the table.  It's time to free up playing time for the younger players.  Moving Plouffe is only a part of that.

 

That would also keep Moli from playing Nunez at 3B instead of Sano.

[tobi0040]

If Terry hasn't already called the Mets he isn't doing his job.

The problem is Ryan would ask for Noah Syndergaard.

[TheLeviathan]

 

A contract extension?

 

Stop it.....that's just mean.

[gunnarthor]

 

The problem is Ryan would ask for Noah Syndergaard.

In fairness, Ryan would very likely look to get a player in A+ or lower, with upside.  That's what he has usually done.  And I think the Mets - who are in win-now mode - would be willing to lose an A ball player or two.  I don't know much about the Mets system or how the Mets view Plouffe (or Nunez) to know who to target but I'd bet it's a guy in the low minors.  

[wsnydes]

 

In fairness, Ryan would very likely look to get a player in A+ or lower, with upside.  That's what he has usually done.  And I think the Mets - who are in win-now mode - would be willing to lose an A ball player or two.  I don't know much about the Mets system or how the Mets view Plouffe (or Nunez) to know who to target but I'd bet it's a guy in the low minors.  

This is part of the discussion.  Market value only takes one team with circumstances that dictate paying for a guy at a position of need.  I'm not suggesting that they'd fetch Syndergaard, but sometimes an offer can surprise.

 

That being said, I don't see Plouffe fetching much.  Nunez would probably command more, but not substantially.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, it seems like the goalposts keep being moved.  I believe the concern was that Ryan doesn't trade anyone until their team control was nearly done.  Well, no, that's quite clearly not true.  Now you want to look at only players moved that had team control and were starters?  Fine, Knobby, AJ, Dougie, Walker, Span, Revere, Keilty, Redmond, Lohse, Slowey.  Again, probably not a complete list.

Sorry, it was a bit of an undefined tangent, didn't mean to sound like I was moving goalposts.  I just didn't know how guys like Padilla or Kinney were remotely comparable to Trevor Plouffe.

 

Walker, Redman, Lohse, and Slowey weren't starters when they were moved.  (Technically Mientkiewicz wasn't anymore either.)

 

Knobby had 4 years left on his deal, Span 3, and AJ had 3 years of control, Revere 5, Kielty ~5.  Those moves were about the return, not moving on from the player.

 

Ryan doesn't have a history that suggests a willingness to move on from guys like Plouffe at this stage of his career/contract.

[Rosterman]

That is what is hurting his trading value. A team has to want him beyond this year. As would the Twins.

Yes, the argument is made that arbitration players are overpaid, at times. But in the scheme of things, the arbitration years are rewards for years of service to a team when you are underpaid. Considering the percentage of players that do reach "richer" free agency, compared to those that never reach arbiration or are released before arbitration and go thru the resign for whatever period, if you are a valuable teammate before arbitration, you deserve the bonus of being overpaid.

 

Linda like free agency. When you sign a hometown player to a free agent contract, you are just not banking on the future, but also acknowledging the past contributions. WHich is what I always find strange about the process. Why "other" teams often take such big gambles on players that will basically go down hill as their salary eats into a team.

 

We can complain about Joe Mauer, but if you even his salary out for his entire career with the Twins (ncluding bonus) and what he supposedly means to Minnesota and the team in general, it probably was an a-ok deal on the surface.

 

If the Twins are even thinking of Plouffe next season, they have to make the 2-3 contract commitment with an option, or trade him for whatever (The Mets now need a temporary third baseman).

 

But that is the rub. What is he worth to a team that might not tender him next season. What is he worth to a team that will not be able to sign him after free agency.

 

Being non-tendered could also be a nightmare for Plouffe, if he produces below his previous standards this season. If the Twins move him, they might be able to sign him back for significantly less. But that, as we know, is not necessary.

 

I assume our front office wants gold for Plouffe. Good luck. He is a rental, period. Or he is a aprt of the Twins team for the next few seasons...playing where and blocking whom?

[gunnarthor]

Mets blogs are at least considering Plouffe.  I think Plouffe just needs to hit well and stay healthy for a few weeks to show that he's not cooked. I suspect most teams have an idea of what he is but probably want to make sure he's healthy and good to go.  I do think the Twins will trade him (and a few others) before the deadline.

[Thrylos]

 

In fairness, Ryan would very likely look to get a player in A+ or lower, with upside.  That's what he has usually done.  And I think the Mets - who are in win-now mode - would be willing to lose an A ball player or two.  I don't know much about the Mets system or how the Mets view Plouffe (or Nunez) to know who to target but I'd bet it's a guy in the low minors.  

 

I'd take 2014 13th Rd draft pick LHSP PJ Conlon and 22 year old C Tom Nido off their hands, in a heartbeat. Both around 22/23 and in A ball and both have been flying under the radar, but made big jumps this season.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd take 2014 13th Rd draft pick LHSP PJ Conlon and 22 year old C Tom Nido off their hands, in a heartbeat. Both around 22/23 and in A ball and both have been flying under the radar, but made big jumps this season.

I have no idea who either of them are - neither makes mlbpipeline's top 30 Mets but both could be having break out seasons and should be considered top 30 guys.  I'm just not sure.  Last year, the A's took a few guys from the Astros that were ranked low but having breakout seasons.  I'm just not in a position to judge.

[tobi0040]

So let's say Plouffe does get hot and is traded for a marginally better prospect than was available last offseason.

 

Was it worth it? We have had no value at 3B in Plouffe and moved our best player to RF, where he has actually posted negative value with horrible defense and offense that is likely being hurt by a new position.

[Vanimal46]

 

That is what is hurting his trading value. A team has to want him beyond this year. As would the Twins.

I realize I cut off a majority of your post.. I don't believe a team that trades for either Plouffe or Nunez has to want them beyond this year. Since the Mets keep being brought up, they only need these types of players for this year while Duda and Wright are injured. They could easily non-tender either Plouffe or Nunez next off-season and have no harm done. 

IMO Plouffe should be non-tendered anyway, since I don't think he'd get a contract over $6-7 million on the open market. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's true, also if we don't trade Plouffe, we could non-tender him and try to sign him back at a reduced price.

[Mike Sixel]

Wright is always injured......they should never count on him. Any time from him should be considered bonus to your plan A. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Aaron Hill, Yunel Escobar, Danny Valencia, Martin Prado, Yangervis Solarte, Internal Options >>> Trevor Plouffe

This is the big stumbling block.  Milwaukee, Oakland, Miami, and San Diego have all been much more aggressive traders than Minnesota, and the market for average-ish 3B placeholders isn't going to be all that robust.  I don't think the Twins can afford to wait things out, as is their usual custom.

[gunnarthor]

 

So let's say Plouffe does get hot and is traded for a marginally better prospect than was available last offseason.

Was it worth it? We have had no value at 3B in Plouffe and moved our best player to RF, where he has actually posted negative value with horrible defense and offense that is likely being hurt by a new position.

I think a lot of that depends on how Sano can handle third.  I think the offense is hurt by a new position thing is overstated.  Sano can hit and is on pace for about a 3 fWAR season, prior to his injury.  

[alarp33]

 

This is the big stumbling block.  Milwaukee, Oakland, Miami, and San Diego have all been much more aggressive traders than Minnesota, and the market for average-ish 3B placeholders isn't going to be all that robust.  I don't think the Twins can afford to wait things out, as is their usual custom.

 

The Mets are cheap as well.  I would be shocked if the Twins made a deal with them... Plouffe is expensive, and frankly not all that good.  If you were the Mets would you trade something for Plouffe right now or wait to see how the market develops and play internal guys? Or give a marginally better 

prospect to get a cheaper, better player in Valencia?

 

Not you, but others on this thread are acting like other teams don't have access to these numbers; 

 

Trevor Plouffe last 365 days

.234/.285/.399 OPS .684 wRC+ 85

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Mets aren't completely helpless without Wright either.  Flores is their utility guy, slumping this year, but a career 88 OPS+ entering the season.  Ty Kelly and Matt Reynolds aren't top prospects, but they both have interesting elements to their minor league stat lines (Kelly's K/BB rates in particular remind me a bit of Robbie Grossman).  I suspect the Mets will want a month or two to evaluate those guys before they made a move for someone like Plouffe.