Could Plouffe be Nontendered?

[Linus]

I believe the speculation is that Plouffe would receive $10 million or more in arbitration next year. If you were the GM would you even agree to go to arbitration with him given his production this season?

[Ncgo4]

Baseball is a very peculiar sport, driven by the fact that careers are so long when compared to, say, football.  As a result, young players are almost never payed what they are "worth", but when older are way overpaid.  This is particularly true for  pitchers and catchers, positions that rely on pure skill and physical condition.  Look at Joe Mauer and some of our current pitchers.

 

For fully OK players such as Plouffe, as that player ages a ball club has a difficult choice.  Do they pay an acceptable player a salary way, way beyond what a 25 year old acceptable player makes?  Specifically, do the Twins pay Plouffe $10 million next year to play 3rd base reasonably OK or do they play Sano very much less to play the same position about as well but with much more upside on the offensive side?

 

If they go with Sano and he becomes the super star slugger he may become, then paying him huge money for several years makes complete sense.  In my mind it makes no sense to pay Plouffe $10 million under any circumstance.

 

It seems very cold, but it's not like they are firing a bus drive at 40 because he's missing work occasionally because he's developed hemorrhoids. They would be giving an outright release (or making an "undervalued" trade) to a guy that has been paid $ millions over the last several years.  That is now wealthy by any standard.

 

I doubt the Twins will do this, however.  Our management has an absolutely proven history of comfort with older "proven" ball players and have been willing to overpay them and play them.  Even if they are only "proven" to be mediocre and even while playing them they are blocking younger players with more potential.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

Nah, gotta have that "Veteran Presence"^TM on the team, even if only as a bench bat. Plus, what incentive will Sano have to get in shape if he knows 3B isn't occupied?

[old nurse]

June, July and August will determine what the Twins do with Plouffe.  If he has a bad season, he is gone.  Ryan moved on from Jones, Stewart, Lawton, and Dougie Baseball fairly quickly.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think he's with the club next season (not even certain about this season). Whether that's a non-tender or trade, we won't know. 

[Boom Boom]

Gotta keep him, right? Wouldn't want to take Plouffe out of the offense. Sano stays in right field and the Twins go out and get a DH, and Park moves to left field, shortstop, or catcher, and with a little practice he should be adequate wherever.

 

But seriously, I think the Twins are mostly quiet at the trade deadline and Plouffe and some other hangers-on will be shipped out for PTBNLs or cash in August.

 

I think I'm all snarked out. I'm taking the rest of the day off.

[roger]

That will be some other GM's decision as he will be gone by July.  With the young outfielders working there way into more playing time, Sano MUST be moved to third base when he returns.

[TheLeviathan]

It's still hard for me to believe we moved Sano around because we just had to keep this guy in the lineup.  Ugh.

[alarp33]

The thing that bothers me most on this one was it really wasn't that hard to see coming.  I argued, and many others did as well that the Twins lineup would be better without him in it (Kepler RF, Sano 3b) and that needing something good in a trade shouldn't be a necessity.  

 

Low OBP, ok power, right handed... something this lineup was in NO need of.  And not to mention, he went from terrible 3rd baseman defensively, to pretty good in 2014, but has gone downhill in that regard this year and last.. he makes the plays that are at him, but his range is horrid.  

 

To answer the question, I can't see anyway he's back here next year.  Non-tender or given away in July.  David Wright to the DL, but there are about 5 trade candidates that would be better options for the Mets.  

[gunnarthor]

A trade to the Mets makes a lot of sense - they have no one to play third right now and also lost their 1Bman.  We might have to eat salary but they should be looking for help.  (Maybe they'd be happier with Nunez). 

[alarp33]

Aaron Hill, Yunel Escobar, Danny Valencia, Martin Prado, Yangervis Solarte, Internal Options >>> Trevor Plouffe

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

June, July and August will determine what the Twins do with Plouffe.  If he has a bad season, he is gone.  Ryan moved on from Jones, Stewart, Lawton, and Dougie Baseball fairly quickly.

Jones and Stewart?  Jones played 6 full seasons here and left via free agency.  Stewart played out his full 3 year free agent contract here before leaving via free agency.  TR took no action for either of those players to leave Minnesota, he simply waited until their team control was finished.

 

Lawton and Mientkiewicz are better examples -- both guys traded 1.5 years before free agency.

[alarp33]

Trevor Plouffe last 365 days

 

.234/.285/.399   OPS .684   wRC+ 85

 

I've kind of given up complaining about the lineup, but it's amazing that him and Dozier are batting 3/4.  I wouldn't even have Plouffe in the lineup vs RHP at this point.  

[Vanimal46]

If Plouffe isn't traded this season I have zero issue with non-tendering him in the off-season. $10+ million is way too steep of a price for him. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I believe the speculation is that Plouffe would receive $10 million or more in arbitration next year. If you were the GM would you even agree to go to arbitration with him given his production this season?

Are we not counting Plouffe's production before his injury?  First mention I could find was May 15th.  Checkout his April/May stats:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=plouftr01&year=2016&t=b#month::none

 

Not saying those stats are sustainable.  But it looked a little like a breakout season. 

[jokin]

 

Aaron Hill, Yunel Escobar, Danny Valencia, Martin Prado, Yangervis Solarte, Internal Options >>> Trevor Plouffe

 

Hmm... only 2 ex-Twins?

[gunnarthor]

 

Jones and Stewart?  Jones played 6 full seasons here and left via free agency.  Stewart played out his full 3 year free agent contract here before leaving via free agency.  TR took no action for either of those players to leave Minnesota, he simply waited until their team control was finished.

 

Lawton and Mientkiewicz are better examples -- both guys traded 1.5 years before free agency.

If you recall, Jones was going to be moved but Kubel tore up his knee in the AFL.  But the rip on Ryan used to be that he didn't hang onto his players.  He'd let some go via FA if he got a supp pick (Koskie, Everyday Eddie, Hawkins, Guzman, Jones) but he traded a lot of guys before their team controlled time was up if he could get a good deal.  And since he's come back, he's done the same. If the Twins think that Plouffe won't be back next year, they'll trade him.  They won't non-tender him in the offseason.

[Thrylos]

 

That will be some other GM's decision as he will be gone by July.  

 

Plouffe or Ryan?

(I hope for the Twins' sake that both are gone by July)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you recall, Jones was going to be moved but Kubel tore up his knee in the AFL.  But the rip on Ryan used to be that he didn't hang onto his players.  He'd let some go via FA if he got a supp pick (Koskie, Everyday Eddie, Hawkins, Guzman, Jones) but he traded a lot of guys before their team controlled time was up if he could get a good deal.  And since he's come back, he's done the same. If the Twins think that Plouffe won't be back next year, they'll trade him.  They won't non-tender him in the offseason.

TR traded a lot of guys before their team controlled time was up?  Lawton and Mientkiewicz, AJ was special circumstances to be sure -- who else?  He really didn't trade "a lot" at all.

 

(Not saying it was a bad strategy, with a competitive team and the old comp draft pick system, it made a lot of sense.  I just don't see a history of aggressive trades, TR is far more likely to take the path of least resistance and ride out a player's control years or contract.)

[wsnydes]

 

If Plouffe isn't traded this season I have zero issue with non-tendering him in the off-season. $10+ million is way too steep of a price for him. 

That's what makes not trading him over the winter even more frustrating.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Are we not counting Plouffe's production before his injury?  First mention I could find was May 15th.  Checkout his April/May stats:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=plouftr01&year=2016&t=b#month::none

 

Not saying those stats are sustainable.  But it looked a little like a breakout season. 

We're counting it, but his injury happened on April 17, not even two weeks from opening day.  No, 134 wRC+ over those 45 PA for a near 30 year old hitter do not remotely indicate a "breakout".  Plouffe had full months of 158 and 124 wRC+ last year, 153, 161, and 118 in 2014, etc.

[Thrylos]

 

If you recall, Jones was going to be moved but Kubel tore up his knee in the AFL.  But the rip on Ryan used to be that he didn't hang onto his players.  He'd let some go via FA if he got a supp pick (Koskie, Everyday Eddie, Hawkins, Guzman, Jones) but he traded a lot of guys before their team controlled time was up if he could get a good deal.  And since he's come back, he's done the same. If the Twins think that Plouffe won't be back next year, they'll trade him.  They won't non-tender him in the offseason.

 

Quite the opposite.  Ryan traded people past their prime and he has received nothing back.  He declined to trade Perkins, Dozier, D. Santana, Suzuki etc after career seasons recently.  He traded Span, Revere, Hughes who were under team control and those 3 trades looks like a wash.  Traded Liriano, instead of getting a pitching coach to help him (and LHSP was a huge position of need since.)

 

Before he retired the first time, he hanged on players too long.  Other than the AJ trade and the Hollins trade (when he received Ortiz; but that should be nullified) he did not get anything really back.  In the 90s he traded Erickson, Tapani and Guthrie for Scrubs and Coomer (who also was a scrub in any other team).  He traded Aguilera for prospects who did not pan out.  He held too long on Mientkiewicz and got nothing back (Justin Jones) while Morneau was ready to play.  He traded Todd Walker (and Huskey) for nothing (Todd Sears).  Traded Javier Valentin (who was a more than serviceable back up catcher) fro nothing.  Matt Lawton for Rick Reed and Kielty for Steward were a wash.

 

People thought that he was a great GM because of the Pierzynski trade and the Santana pickup. The Ortiz release, the Casey Blake release, the Liriano trade, few of the above misguided trades, the dumpster diving free agent pickups, the ill-advised extensions vs. trades after career seasons etc, tell a different story if one sees his career as a GM holistically.  And then there is the bottom line of one post-season series win in 21 seasons...

[lukeduke1980]

 

I don't think he's with the club next season (not even certain about this season). Whether that's a non-tender or trade, we won't know. 

Plouffe would be an upgrade at 3B for which contending team?  In hindsight, Plouffe should have been the one to get OF reps this year to improve his marketability.  

[kab21]

I think it is going to come down to whether or not the Twins really think Sano is a 3B. Yes, I know that they have always publicly said it but I think Sano being in RF right now is partly due to their own doubts.

 

Honestly people need to get over this mythical missed opportunity to trade Plouffe this offseason. There wasn't a market for 3B and the return would have been minimal. The better choice was to hope that an injury would happen forcing a team to offer a reasonable trade for him.

[tobi0040]

It's still hard for me to believe we moved Sano around because we just had to keep this guy in the lineup.  Ugh.

A real head-scratcher. You basically need to compare Plouffe's bat to that of a RF. Because if we slide Sano to 3B, you get a RF in there who will be replacing Plouffe in the lineup. Plouffe'e career OPS+ of 98, which is below league average and looks worse compared to a bat heavy position (RF).

 

The decision is made infinitely worse when you factor Sano's defensive value in RF, which is on pace to cause three losses, more than offsetting his offensive value.

 

Really a solid move all around.

[alarp33]

 

I think it is going to come down to whether or not the Twins really think Sano is a 3B. Yes, I know that they have always publicly said it but I think Sano being in RF right now is partly due to their own doubts.

 

Honestly people need to get over this mythical missed opportunity to trade Plouffe this offseason. There wasn't a market for 3B and the return would have been minimal. The better choice was to hope that an injury would happen forcing a team to offer a reasonable trade for him.

 

The Twins are 16-37, Plouffe is below replacement level, Sano has been a disaster in RF (which everyone expected).  Why isn't it ok to continue talking about Plouffe being traded? The minimal return would be an upgrade over what they could get for him today.  

[tobi0040]

I think it is going to come down to whether or not the Twins really think Sano is a 3B. Yes, I know that they have always publicly said it but I think Sano being in RF right now is partly due to their own doubts.

 

Honestly people need to get over this mythical missed opportunity to trade Plouffe this offseason. There wasn't a market for 3B and the return would have been minimal. The better choice was to hope that an injury would happen forcing a team to offer a reasonable trade for him.

But if you have a pair of two's, you fold them. You don't hold onto them the rest of the hand and continue to put money in the middle. The move was to trade Plouffe for his market value (the best trade we could get). We are worse off with Plouffe on our team right now, at least playing 3B everyday.

[gunnarthor]

 

TR traded a lot of guys before their team controlled time was up?  Lawton and Mientkiewicz, AJ was special circumstances to be sure -- who else?  He really didn't trade "a lot" at all.

 

(Not saying it was a bad strategy, with a competitive team and the old comp draft pick system, it made a lot of sense.  I just don't see a history of aggressive trades, TR is far more likely to take the path of least resistance and ride out a player's control years or contract.)

Sure.  Aggie, Gutherie, Mahomes, Walbeck, Becker, Redman, Buchanan, Kinney, Kielty, Padilla, Lohse all had over a full season of control left.  Guys like Mohr, Milton, Romero all had a full year.  Neither of those are complete lists.

[old nurse]

 

Jones and Stewart?  Jones played 6 full seasons here and left via free agency.  Stewart played out his full 3 year free agent contract here before leaving via free agency.  TR took no action for either of those players to leave Minnesota, he simply waited until their team control was finished.

 

Lawton and Mientkiewicz are better examples -- both guys traded 1.5 years before free agency.

Not when the thought is that the Twins keep the players regardless because of past production. Stewart resigned once with the Twins. Jones" contract was not a great increase.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Honestly people need to get over this mythical missed opportunity to trade Plouffe this offseason. There wasn't a market for 3B and the return would have been minimal. The better choice was to hope that an injury would happen forcing a team to offer a reasonable trade for him.

 

So instead we're marching a bad hitter out to the cleanup spot every day, forcing another guy who can't play OF to the OF, and realistically talking about cutting him for nothing after the season.

 

Who the hell cares what the return would've been?  Isn't it more than evident that the point many of us made in the offseason - move him, return be damned - was the right play?  Even if he goes on some hot streak in July, what is he going to fetch?