Article: Your Turn: What Do You Want From A GM?

[alarp33]

 

To an extent you have a point (particularly the 11 year metric), but 29th in baseball over the last 5 ignores how long it takes to rebuild a franchise, especially since that really didn't start moving forward till 2013. 

 

Again I ask, what is considered poor performance if losing 90+ games 5 times in 6 years does not qualify?  

 

24 of 30* MLB teams have made the playoffs since 2011. The Twins haven't, and are on pace to lose 120 games this season .  It is amazing that this standard of how long it takes to build a team only applies to Terry Ryan for some

 

*of the 6 that haven't made the playoffs, 2 lead their division (CWS, Seattle), 1 is over .500 (Miami), 1 is 3 games under .500 (Colorado). 

 

And then there is;

The Padres at 19-29

The Twins at 12-34

 

Excellent company

Edited May 26, 2016 by alarp33

[DaveW]

Again I ask, what is considered poor performance if losing 90+ games 5 times in 6 years does not qualify?

 

24 of 30* MLB teams have made the playoffs since 2011. The Twins haven't, and are on pace to lose 120 games this season . It is amazing that this standard of how long it takes to build a team only applies to Terry Ryan for some

 

*of the 6 that haven't made the playoffs, 2 lead their division (CWS, Seattle), 1 is over .500 (Miami), 1 is 3 games under .500 (Colorado).

 

And then there is;

The Padres at 19-29

The Twins at 12-34

 

Excellent company

That is damning. We all like to poke fun at the Padres crazy GM, but his team is doing better than our beloved Twins....

 

Seattle is an interesting case, they never really did a rebuild, they simply try to put together a playoff team each year, and it looks like it's working for them now.

[alarp33]

 

Seattle is an interesting case, they never really did a rebuild, they simply try to put together a playoff team each year, and it looks like it's working for them now.

 

They brought in a new, highly respected GM last September, after canning the previous under-performing one in late August.. Hmmmmmm

[old nurse]

 

Again I ask, what is considered poor performance if losing 90+ games 5 times in 6 years does not qualify?  

 

24 of 30* MLB teams have made the playoffs since 2011. The Twins haven't, and are on pace to lose 120 games this season .  It is amazing that this standard of how long it takes to build a team only applies to Terry Ryan for some

 

*of the 6 that haven't made the playoffs, 2 lead their division (CWS, Seattle), 1 is over .500 (Miami), 1 is 3 games under .500 (Colorado). 

 

And then there is;

The Padres at 19-29

The Twins at 12-34

 

Excellent company

And only 7 different teams have made the World Series, leading  21 teams to complain how their GM does not get the job done. Hunnington and Hoyer would get a free pass.

[alarp33]

 

And only 7 different teams have made the World Series, leading  21 teams to complain how their GM does not get the job done. Hunnington and Hoyer would get a free pass.

 

Huh? You missed the point by a wide margain

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How long should it take? When do we get to judge the number of 90 loss seasons as too many? I just want to know, because the goal posts seem to move a lot.

 

I don't think anyone can definitively answer that question, and if it decisions are made based mainly on a timeline, I think you run the risk potentially lengthening said time.  I don't agree with the claims that we are in year 5 or 6 of a rebuild.  This is really the start year 4, and most of that young talent in knocking on the door.  While this season may be a lost cause, I don't think many of the components of this team are as much of a lost cause as some would think, and the last thing we should do is start trading off those young pieces (except where they are redundant) or simply letting them go. 

 

How long that takes, I don't think anyone knows as everyone matures at different rates.  When you add the fact that guys are being rushed, that doesn't help.  We brought up a number of those guys earlier than we should and we are paying the price for it to an extent.  But there is a nice core in Arcia, Sano, Escobar, Park, Rosario, Buxton, Gibson, Duffey, Chargois, Meyer, and Berrios with more potential help in Kepler, Polanco, Walker, Vargas, Burdi, Reed, Jones, Murphy, Garver, and Turner.   None of those guys (except maybe Gibson, a DH type eventually, and an OF eventually) should be jettisoned. 

 

I suspect just about everyone plans on using these guys anyways, which is why I'm arguing for experience in transitioning talent, b/c at this point, the talent is either in the majors or will be shortly.  Rebuilding, like it or not, takes time.  Whether Ryan is the right guy for the job going forward I don't know (I've said previously that this was in my opinion the last year where I thought he would be, and the results thus far have given me no other reason to doubt that statement). 

 

To be clear, I think changes should be made as soon as it makes sense to make them (probably after the draft, though I think there's a case to go all in internationally and I'm not sure how a new GM would improve the likelihood of this), but I really hope ownership doesn't demonstrate the impatience that I've seen here or we are going to see lots more David Ortiz type situations.  And good Lord, that impatience is being fueled by a level of arrogance that I just don't understand.  Everyone here is a fan.  We don't live and breathe baseball.  We don't do it for a living.  We look at scores.  We don't understand everything that a GM does.  Truthfully, I doubt we understand a quarter of that job description.  We can only guess.  Most of us (myself included) don't manage much more than a team of people, much less an organization, and I've seen enough of dysfunctional organizations to know that its driven largely by impatience, arrogance, and ignorance.  Making a change at this level will cause significant ripples in an organization, and as Old Nurse pointed out not that long ago, all that new blood can be just as bad as the old blood.  Finding the right fit and the right balance is important, and I've seen little on TD to indicate that anyone here has the right skills to do it, especially if timeline is the primary metric.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 This is really the start year 4, and most of that young talent in knocking on the door. 

You keep repeating this, but no evidence supports it.  TR came back to rebuild, so 2012 was the first year of that.  True, he didn't make a ton of moves that year -- but TR rarely makes a bunch of moves!  Especially when he had no one worth trading, and not a lot of youngsters worth promoting.  It was still year 1 of the rebuild, it's just that most other GMs probably would have approached it more aggressively than TR.

[Riverbrian]

There is a ton of logic to what Diehard posted.  

 

Everyone seems to have different timelines.

In my opinion... It is year 0 of the rebuild.

Terry Ryan has never pushed that button.

Unless the rebuild started so subtly that I didn't notice.

This is year whatever of trying to win and not doing that.

[ashbury]

ADVANCED STATISTICS

 

This is one that people think that the Twins are so far behind on. I don’t think we really know. However, if there were a change, and you were in charge, how much focus would you put on it?

...

let’s be productive and each of us jot down our thoughts on what makes a good GM, and what type of candidate we would support the Twins signing.

The GM is responsible for so many things, and Seth touched on them so completely, that a full answer would be quite a treatise. The GM can't be an expert on every aspect, but that's why he gets to hire assistants. Ryan has seemed good on many of the nuts and bolts aspect of the job. But the area mentioned above, loosely considered as "statistics", is the area I would like to focus on.

.

I think it's a misconception to believe that the team needs better statistics, per se. A purely sabrmetric approach wouldn't be very likely to succeed. But what I see missing from the team, and seems to be present with other teams, is a broader area called Business Analytics. I take for granted that areas under Dave St Peter's purview, setting ticket prices and so on, use some measure of this. But I have gotten nothing from what little I've read from Jack Goin, and definitely not from Terry Ryan, that suggests Business Analytics has much role in the baseball operations side of their business, nor that they are abreast of the state of the art.

 

Business Analytics can be broken into roughly three areas, in increasing sophistication.

1. Descriptive Analytics. "Where are we now?"
2. Predictive Analytics. "What are the trends going forward?"
3. Prescriptive Analytics. "What steps can we take?"

Businesses in areas as varied as Airlines, Forestry, Petroleum, Finance, Logistics, yadda yadda yadda, make use of these tools every day, to manage their valuable inventories. If you've ever heard a corporate sponsor called The MathWorks mentioned on NPR, that's the general area.

 

The analogy to a baseball team stands out a mile, in my mind.

 

If you don't even have the first level, Descriptive Analytics, there's a huge value in catching up to the state of the art. A lot of the value is just in seeing what data you don't already have, and going out and getting it. The ability to process large amounts of data has exploded in my lifetime. I think the Twins probably are OK in this regard, although it may be that further improvements could be made, such as in keeping tabs on every player in professional ball. (I don't mean just the stats, but internal scouting reports and so forth, sortable and searchable to any desired degree.) Basically if the GM can ask his analytics team, "find me every power hitting first base prospect with a decent eye and OK contact skills, and no red flags on his makeup" when he wants to construct a trade, he's fine. Not that trades are the main aim - you mostly want to know how your players stack up, especially in terms of dollars and cents - what do each stats do to create wins, and what are wins worth in terms of dollars.

 

The second area, which also can be loosely thought of as Forecasting, is where the better organizations start to separate themselves from their industry peers. Modify the above trade scenario, to add "show me first basemen with latent power that may develop later on". I can't help but harp on the Phil Hughes contract extension, as evidence that they do not seem to have a good handle on baseball forecasting - a good year from a pitcher with an inconsistent record should be cause for rejoicing because of the favorable contract, and result in at most a 1-year extension, bringing the risk back to what it was when the contract was originally signed. Note that it's not simply forecasting the future, but tying it to dollar value. Ryan is a good man, and his sense of how to deal with the human side of the game is not to be ignored, but I gather from his public statements that he doesn't trust predictive analytics, much to his detriment.

 

The third of these areas gets to be even more arcane, but again holds rewards for those who can apply the tools. Prescriptive analytics can be tied in with Systems Analysis, and attempts to go beyond looking at individual components (players etc in the case of baseball), and tries to formulate solutions of an entire system. For example in the trade scenario above, "which of the first base prospects I can go after in trade will give me the most bang for the buck based on our forecast lineup 3 years from now, or would I be better off going after a catcher? Give me a dollar and cents answer." Obviously there is no exactitude in the answers you get, since the input data is so probabilistic, so you run scenario after scenario and eventually see what pattern develops. And it depends on the quality of your Predictive Analytics, since it does you no good to plug Ricky Nolasco into an "equation" to see if he's a fit and what size contract you should offer, if you're penciling him in for a steady ERA of 3.50 every year. In my posts at Twins Daily I sometimes throw in words like "constraint" to describe the effect that a 25-man Active Roster has on planning - you can't sign 200 0.25 WAR players and win a pennant. Buzz words like constrained optimization, linear programming, stochastic processes, all require more than simply assigning an average industrious MBA to master. I am convinced that some of the better teams are at least dabbling in these areas, and I think that adopting some of the mindset behind these techniques would benefit our team.

 

Terry Ryan brings a lot to the table, but in this day and age I think he's better suited as a nuts and bolts assistant, to a GM who understands baseball inside and out but also is fully immersed in the use of Business Analytics. That's the kind of guy I'd like to see the Twins bring in as GM, because I'm very confident they do not have anyone remotely fitting this description in-house, unless Jack Goin surprises me greatly, or (God forbid) Rob Antony reveals some unplumbed depths. And then they need to hire an assistant GM with potential as good as Terry Ryan, and keep Antony doing contracts or whatever he does.

 

Questions raised here in this thread, e.g. of how to proceed with the current roster, or attempt a complete teardown keeping only a few key parts, derive from this, so I would not jump the gun by presuming an answer at the outset.

 

Just for grins, for anyone who made it this far in a "tl;dnr" kind of post: take a look at this guy's resume on LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/in/arikaplan I'm not advocating him as the guy for GM. But this phrase caught my eye: "Optimized $110M payroll". For the Cubs. Prior to Epstein, apparently. People often use the word "Optimized" loosely. As an analytics specialist, his use of the word might not be quite so loose. I'd be a little curious to chat with him. And I want the GM the Twins hire to be comfortable relying on a Caltech guy like that, instead of assigning a St Thomas MBA to get up to speed.

[old nurse]

 

Huh? You missed the point by a wide margain

Your point was simple enough. On other teams even regularly making the playoffs was not good enough

[Willihammer]

 

Just for grins, for anyone who made it this far in a "tl;dnr" kind of post: take a look at this guy's resume on LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/in/arikaplan I'm not advocating him as the guy for GM. But this phrase caught my eye: "Optimized $110M payroll". For the Cubs. Prior to Epstein, apparently. People often use the word "Optimized" loosely. As an analytics specialist, his use of the word might not be quite so loose. I'd be a little curious to chat with him. And I want the GM the Twins hire to be comfortable relying on a Caltech guy like that, instead of assigning a St Thomas MBA to get up to speed.

Why is this guy not the GM of the Twins right now? Or, yesterday?

[ashbury]

Why is this guy not the GM of the Twins right now? Or, yesterday?

Because he doesn't have the broad range of skills the GM needs to bring to the table?

 

The Orioles currently use his services according to the resume, and it's not very clear his role with them is increasing, beyond "digital scouting". He's cobbling together a living, doing this and that. He did get himself written up in SI one time. http://www.si.com/mlb/2013/10/09/mlb-digital-scouting

 

Also, I don't swallow whole his statement that he optimized a 110M payroll. The Cubs didn't just hand him the keys to the executive office suite and say "good luck, let us know how it comes out." He claims to have had some role, and even that would need to be verified.

 

I just want to see our team swimming in these same waters. I believe it will help avoid mistakes, more than result in some qualitative competitive advantage - it's way too late for that.

 

[Steve J]

Background

 

If the Twins are looking for a GM change, previous success on field doesn't matter to me as much as a general baseball business acumen and an open mind.  As owner, job one would be to enlarge the market and make the team more profitable.  Profitability is important to long-term viability  

 

My greatest criticism as a fan of the Twins is reserved for present and past ownership.  I simply do not like the way the Polhads conduct the business of the Twins.  I haven't forgotten the days of Don Beaver and the threats to move or contract the Twins if they didn't get a new stadium with taxpayer help.  I recall all the talk fed to the press of the woes of being in a small market when all economic metrics have long pointed to the Twin Cities and Minnesota as being a viable baseball middle-market.  Everyone here may remember the message ownership expressed shortly after being given a new field when the product abruptly failed, attendance fell off with the team's performance, and shortly thereafter payroll did as well.  From my point of view what came down from ownership as a result was to this, to paraphrase:

 

"we'll invest in more payroll when more people start showing up".

 

I think that's getting the fan/team relationship backwards.  Imagine a pizza chain promising to improve their mediocre product only when more people started buying their crummy pizzas.  I would instead take more risk to improve the product, then hoping more people would attend

 

"Build it and they will come"

 

SCOUTING

 

The Draft

 

I would take more of a "Best player available" approach.  For all the talk of needing to acquire high-upside arms, relief pitchers with good arms that don't earn saves are very cheap on the market and starting pitching with upside certainly fits the "BPA" model.  Rosters can change a lot in the years required to develop prospects and it seems a lot more intuitive to just do the best you can to spam your organization with as much talent as possible and use the trade/free agent markets to supplement it to fill holes.  

 

I applaud the team for it's approach in some past years - for trying to find better pitchers with more velocity by drafting relievers and converting them, rather than just drafting polished college mediocrity with their good control, questionable command, and 88mph four seamers.....  that this approach didn't work wouldn't stop me from approving them to try it again.  What I don't want is to spend draft picks on guys who best project to be Tommy Milones and Sam Dedunos as we have no trouble finding those types by other means.  I would consistently choose upside over polish.  The further in the draft we go, i would focus even more on upside with the ensuing flaws.  I would focus on a balance between stats/tools at the top of the draft and much more on tools down low.  

 

International Markets

 

I would be a bit aggressive here and am glad they signed Park after the failure of Nishioka.  International Markets are also a chance to gain cache in other nations, especially Japan, Australia and Korea.  I want the Twins to be among the most respected clubs in the region.  

I also want to play a series against another MLB team in Tokyo or Seoul during the regular season.  If I have to forfeit having three games at home and refunding season ticket holders, so be it.  

 

Advanced Scouting

 

I don't see any reason why this should not continue.  I want the scouting director to balance statistical vs traditional approaches.  

 

 

Advanced Statistics

 

Over the years, the team's various comments on Sabremetrics indicate that they just that aren't into it and their involvement has been tepid and tokenary.  I get the feeling they don't trust it much.   Statistics must be integrated the system of decision making, not just another (probably ignored) voice vying for input.  All Player Decisions will figure heavily on a statistical approach.    

 

PLAYER DEVELOPMENT

 

Philosophies will be based on keeping players who hit at premium defensive positions there as long as possible.  I can accept a below average defensive SS who hits 285/340/470.  it's not a question of whether he fits the traditional mold of a defensive-first player, it's a question of Wins above Replacement, no matter how they get there.

 

From pitchers I would emphasize more strikeouts and am willing to accept more walks.  I don't need every hitter to have Mauer-like patience, but I don't value and see the future in any player I don't think will be able to maintain a 1:2 BB/K rate in the majors (like Rosario), unless they have incredible power (like Sano).

 

 I won't bring up prospect so they can sit on the bench.  I will require the manager to play prospects who are brought up and sit a vet, if necessary.  I would not allow struggling prospects to work through at the major league level if they haven't yet proven a sustained ability to hit at AAA (aka, Aaron Hicks).

 

I would shy away from RH-dominant switch hitters in drafts.  I would have switch hitting players who demonstrate a decided difference in splits drop their weaker side if they can't shake it by the end of their days in rookie ball, or their first season of A ball at the latest.  

 

I expect players coming from the minors to throw to the right base and make correct decisions as fielders.  they should be prepared to play the field.

 

Position Players should focus on skills as well as fitness during the off-season.  I worry about pitcher load and would impose inning limits for younger pitchers in non-competitive years.  

 

I would keep our affiliates happy.  The last thing I want is to have our AAA back in the PCL.  I would prefer having more affiliates in the Midwest.  

 

MEDIA/PRESS RELATIONS

 

From an organizational standpoint there is always something better to do than answering predictable questions to a bunch of reporters.  However, outreach is important. Never shy away from a reporter looking for a few quotes.  You need these guys on your side.  Take them out to lunch.  hire a good ad agency with a penchant for approachable humor and buy ad space in the papers.  Send the Trib donuts once in awhile. Embrace bloggers as they tend to come up with better angles/questions.  

 

FRONT OFFICE/On Field Staff

 

I would want to keep our legacy personnel close. Minnesota has a good and fortunate history. I'm fairly certain they just want to hang around the ballpark anyways and have little desire to influence team direction.  If TK still wanted to manage, he would have been managing these last fifteen years.  I don't know who I 'get rid of'.  I set expectations and philosophies, let personnel fall however it does.  There are a few things with TK's approach that I don't get, but he's a legend. A legend that wears Zubas....

 

I don't think we need a manager change.  A manager's job is mainly preparedness and managing workloads.  I don't think there's anything to be gained by getting rid of Molly.  Bruno did a good job last year, and it's still early this season.  Of all the problems we have had this year, none of it is because of the on field staff.  Of note, injury communications have improved.  I don't recall this year or last any player being listed as day to day, playing a few times a week by hobbling through, sucking, and then finally being put on the DL for the same injury for the next six weeks.  The Manager and Trainer should be assertive in removing players from their duties if they think something is wrong.  don't let the player make the call because any dedicated player will want to play through pain.     

 

 

That said, I liked the way Gardy handled umpires.  Sometimes someone has to get thrown out to deflate a situation, and Gardy was certainly willing to stand in as a proxy for the anger from his players.  If someone is going to burst, it best not be someone on the roster.  

 

 

The Current Situation:

 

The best players should be put in the positions where they can provide the best value, from my perspective.  Trevor May goes in the Rotation and Sano goes to Third.  Maybe Nolasco has a future as a successful middle reliever, because I've lost hope he'll ever be able to be traded and he's probably no better than our 6th best starting option when everyone is healthy.  I don't plan on resigning Plouffe, but I would be perfectly happy with him as a serviceable utility player for the rest of the year if I can't get a player in return that has some upside.  Park is an asset.  We keep Park.  You couldn't give the contracts of Nolasco or Suzuki away right now, so that's moot.    We play the prospects unless they struggle too long.  We let Dozier work through it.  His BB% is the same, his K rate is down, it's only his BABIP that's making him suffer.  

 

TRADES:

 

I am willing to trade any non-star player at almost any time.  I would look to the numbers guys more than any other.  Elite talent is almost never up for trade and when it is, it's only a rental.  

 

 

FREE AGENCY

 

I would be a hypocrite to tear into recent free agency decisions.  I thought at the time that the Nolasco and Hughes signings would be good ones,as well as the Santana contract.  If everything worked out, ie Nolasco and Santana held as decent #3 starters while Hughes took steps forward moving out of hitter-friendly New Yankee Stadium, we could be looking at a pitching surplus right now had Barrios, Gibson, and Meyer all transitioned to the MLB sucessfully.  It didn't work out that way, but I can't fault the process that much.   

 

that said, offering extensions after limited success with the team to Hughes and Suzuki were puzzling mistakes.  They are consistent with TR's apparent desire for long term certainty rather than try to get maximum value from the ebb-and-flow of the markets.  I think in the future I'd like to see the Twins aim a little higher and show a little more patience with how the FA market develops.  It's hard to find good value on the market when you are trying to lock up middling players before the bidding starts..  

 

I wouldn't stay away from the 10-13 million dollar guys, but I would stay way from the $3-$8 mil specials.  How much better than the normal depth of back-end starters the Twins always have can those guys actually be?  Workhorses you say?? Innings have little value unless they have some quality to them.  There's always a cheap Scott Diamond in the rough or Tommie 'Mayday' Milones to be had.  Pretty soon those $5-8 million dollar 90 ERA+ "workhorses" add up to real money that could have gotten an actually valuable player.  

Edited May 29, 2016 by Steve J

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

"we'll invest in more payroll when more people start showing up".

 

I think that's getting the fan/team relationship backwards.  Imagine a pizza chain promising to improve their mediocre product only when more people started buying their crummy pizzas.  I would instead take more risk to improve the product, then hoping more people would attend

 

"Build it and they will come"

 

 

Dominos has been doing it for years... even going as far as to claim they improved said crummy product. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

Just for grins, for anyone who made it this far in a "tl;dnr" kind of post: take a look at this guy's resume on LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/in/arikaplan I'm not advocating him as the guy for GM. But this phrase caught my eye: "Optimized $110M payroll". For the Cubs. Prior to Epstein, apparently. People often use the word "Optimized" loosely. As an analytics specialist, his use of the word might not be quite so loose. I'd be a little curious to chat with him. And I want the GM the Twins hire to be comfortable relying on a Caltech guy like that, instead of assigning a St Thomas MBA to get up to speed.

 

Trolling linked in for potential GM resumes.... got to say that takes fandom to a new level. 

[ashbury]

Trolling linked in for potential GM resumes.... got to say that takes fandom to a new level. 

When I tried grindr.com first, all of the candidates seemed overqualified but for a different role.