Article: Your Turn: What Do You Want From A GM?

[jokin]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 6:52 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

Given that this is not a team with as deep of resources as the Cubs, I think not getting pitching in the early picks is just as risky as we won't be going out and handing out those 150MM ace contracts. I do think pitching and hitting should be mixed up, but refusing to draft a pitcher at #1 simply b/c of the risk smacks in the face of all that BPA talk I hear every day. 

 

How about trading journeyman catchers with a career WAR of -1.6 and and a so-so back-end SP for a good RP and a future ace? (Because that's what Theo pulled off).  It isn't just deep resources.

[old nurse]

I want a GM who can do similar things to turning RA Dickey into D'Anaud and Symdergaard.  I want a GM who knows when to move a player on while there is still value. I want a GM who is lucky. 

 

People from successful organizations moving on

Friedman ran the Rays and did a good job. The Dodgers not so much.

Luhnow's team had a good year last year, this year so far, not so much.

Dombrowski has reinvented multiple team.

LaRussa was considered a great baseball mind

Dombrowski has been good wherever

Hiring away from another organization is not foolproof.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 6:59 PM, jokin said:

How about trading journeyman catchers with a career WAR of -1.6 and and a so-so back-end SP for a good RP and a future ace? (Because that's what Theo pulled off).  It isn't just deep resources.

 

Yes, we got nothing of value recently for Butera, Doumitt, and Herrman.  Oh, and TINSTAAPP certainly applies to any minor leaguer with the title "future ace."

 

I've already been on record stating I'd do some things differently, but I'm really not sure what your point is given that the context I was specifically addressing is why I disagreed with the idea of not drafting any pitching in the early rounds of the draft. 

[jokin]

 

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:12 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

Yes, we got nothing of value recently for Butera, Doumitt, and Herrman.  Oh, and TINSTAAPP certainly applies to any minor leaguer with the title "future ace."

 

I've already been on record stating I'd do some things differently, but I'm really not sure what your point is given that the context I was specifically addressing is why I disagreed with the idea of not drafting any pitching in the early rounds of the draft. 

 

My point is we can't keep crying poor about the lack of depth of resources. Right now the main poverty surrounding this club is the paucity of cleverness and intrepidity.

[bizaff]

Over the last few weeks I've seen a lot of references to trading Perkins at peak value.

 

I assume he took the hometown discount to stay home.

 

If a GM trades away someone who took the hometown discount, that GM (or team) will probably never get the hometown discount again.

 

I don't hold Ryan accountable for not trading Perkins - I think it's clearly the right thing to hang onto him unless Perkins was ok with it.

[alarp33]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:24 PM, bizaff said:

Over the last few weeks I've seen a lot of references to trading Perkins at peak value.

 

I assume he took the hometown discount to stay home.

 

If a GM trades away someone who took the hometown discount, that GM (or team) will probably never get the hometown discount again.

 

I don't hold Ryan accountable for not trading Perkins - I think it's clearly the right thing to hang onto him unless Perkins was ok with it.

 

They signed Perkins to a 3 year $10.3 million deal after his 1st good season in the majors. The fact that he continued to be a good pitcher made this contract look like a bargain, but I would hardly classify that as a hometown discount... and I don't think the Twins owed him anything

[d-mac]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 6:52 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

Given that this is not a team with as deep of resources as the Cubs, I think not getting pitching in the early picks is just as risky as we won't be going out and handing out those 150MM ace contracts. I do think pitching and hitting should be mixed up, but refusing to draft a pitcher at #1 simply b/c of the risk smacks in the face of all that BPA talk I hear every day. 

 

You can make the counter argument that we can't afford take a pitcher high in the draft and not have him work out vs taking a hitter. I'm all for BPA at the top of the draft, but lean toward hitting once the those "elite" amateur players are taken. High end pitching can be found all over the draft. It's more a matter of scouting and player development, IMO.

[Kwak]

Most of the posts seem to be saying:  "I want the new GM to do...(follow my orders)". I just want him to build a consistent winning team geared to win the World Series.  I expect him to do things "his way".

Edited May 24, 2016 by Kwak

[alarp33]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:34 PM, Kwak said:

Most of the posts m to be saying:  "I want the new GM to do...(follow my orders)". I just want him to build a consistent winning team geared to win the Word Series.  I expect him to do things "his way".

 

I don't think anyone here believes the new GM will be calling them for advice on potential moves.  I think we all understand that new GM will run things their own way.  That doesn't mean we can't discuss what types of traits we'd like to see in the new GM. 

[jokin]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:31 PM, d-mac said:

You can make the counter argument that we can't afford take a pitcher high in the draft and not have him work out vs taking a hitter. I'm all for BPA at the top of the draft, but lean toward hitting once the those "elite" amateur players are taken. High end pitching can be found all over the draft. It's more a matter of scouting and player development, IMO.

 

Yep, precisely. In the draft, the international market, and on other team's rosters, as well. Money/small market excuses are the easy way out.

[bizaff]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:29 PM, alarp33 said:

They signed Perkins to a 3 year $10.3 million deal after his 1st good season in the majors. The fact that he continued to be a good pitcher made this contract look like a bargain, but I would hardly classify that as a hometown discount... and I don't think the Twins owed him anything

I suppose one could argue that first one was fair, but what about the $22MM extension?  Doing a little research:

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24485200/glen-perkins-hometown-discount-with-twins-was-his-suggestion

http://www.si.com/mlb/strike-zone/2014/03/17/glen-perkins-extension-minnesota-twins

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/69324232/minnesota-twins-sign-closer-glen-perkins-to-extension-through-2017

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/ten-to-extend-a-five-part-series-part-2-r4468

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/glen-perkins-signs-extension-with-twins-r2404

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/spring-training-2015/glen-perkins-looking-to-move-on-r3507

[DaveW]

Yeah the Perkins thing is a bit too 20/20 in my eyes. You typically don't trade a guy one year or so into an extension/contract that he signed with you. Especially one that is playing effectively (at the time).

 

The last thing you also want to happen anyways is be stuck with a team with no real closer, that is how Ramos for Matt Capps deals happen, and those are bad.

[alarp33]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:43 PM, bizaff said:

I suppose one could argue that first one was fair, but what about the $22MM extension?  Doing a little research:

 

 

 

They lost 96 games in the 2 years (2012, 2013) following his 1st extension, before his 2nd.  They signed him to a second extension in March of 2014 with 3 years remaining on the original extension.  

 

96 loss teams don't need good closers,.  They could have traded him many times without worrying about offending him and his "hometown discount" (or they could have just never signed him to that 2nd one.. the original would be in its final year now)

Edited May 24, 2016 by alarp33

[alarp33]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:48 PM, DaveW said:

Yeah the Perkins thing is a bit too 20/20 in my eyes. You typically don't trade a guy one year or so into an extension/contract that he signed with you. Especially one that is playing effectively (at the time).

 

The last thing you also want to happen anyways is be stuck with a team with no real closer, that is how Ramos for Matt Capps deals happen, and those are bad.

 

At the 2013 trade deadline they were 1.5 years into that "extension", would that have been an ok time to trade?  They were on the way to 96 losses, and would follow that up by losing 92 the following year.  

 

I really don't think this was a case of hindsight at all, plenty of people were calling for him to be traded.  

I also don't think bringing up Capps justifies it at all... "Don't do this smart thing, because you might follow it up with something really dumb"

[jokin]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:29 PM, alarp33 said:

They signed Perkins to a 3 year $10.3 million deal after his 1st good season in the majors. The fact that he continued to be a good pitcher made this contract look like a bargain, but I would hardly classify that as a hometown discount... and I don't think the Twins owed him anything

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:48 PM, DaveW said:

Yeah the Perkins thing is a bit too 20/20 in my eyes. You typically don't trade a guy one year or so into an extension/contract that he signed with you. Especially one that is playing effectively (at the time).

 

The last thing you also want to happen anyways is be stuck with a team with no real closer, that is how Ramos for Matt Capps deals happen, and those are bad.

 

All good points, except for the fact that the team was clearly years away from contending... a top-flite closer as a rule is an unneeded luxury on a rebuilding team, and Perk was most probably their best source of talent via trade for improving the team for the long-term.

 

And RPs by their nature are a bit unpredictable year to year, Perkins was not immune to that fact of life- many of us supported the move at the time.

Edited May 24, 2016 by jokin

[Rosterman]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 3:13 PM, DaveW said:

That's a little unfair IMO.

 

Buxton hasn't floundered at all yet, he still is wayyyy too young to say this and he is currently doing very well in AAA. Several top prospects struggle their first time in the majors, Trout comes immediately to mind. Also, Buxton likely wasn't ready to be brought up anyways. If he is still struggling in 3 years then maybe we can talk about him being a bust.

 

Ditto with Stewart, he was a high school arm, those guys take longer to develop then the Jr/Sr college pitchers we have drafted quite a bit in the past. He was a top 30 prospect coming into this season and is pitching well as a 21 year old in A+.

 

Berrios is another first rounder who has worked out "well" so far and has a bright future.

 

Span was a very good CF for us, I don't see how you can include him in this list as well. He is a good player who will have a good career, most teams will take that 7 days a week out of their mid first round pick.

 

Gomez was never picked by the Twins, he was part of the Mets system.

 

Gibson and Plouffe haven't been all stars, but at least they have contributed and are solid players as well. You can't really call them busts.

 

If you want to talk busts, then at least mention the busts like Hunt, Gutierrez.

Overall I think the Twins have done a pretty solid job drafting in the first round IMO.

Twins early round drafting, first 150 picks:

2005: MATT GARZA, Henry Sanchez, Paul Kelly, KEVIN SLOWEY, Drew Thompson. BRIAN DUENSING, Ryan Mullins, Caleb Moore

2006: CHRIS PARMELEE, JOE BENSON, TYLER ROBERTSON, Whit Robbins, Garrett Jones

2007: BEN REVERE, Angel Morales, Danny Rams, Reggie Williams

2008: AARON HICKS, Carlos Gutierrez, Shooter Hunt, Bobby Lanigan, TYLER LADENDORF, Danny Ortiz, Nick Romero

2009: KYLE GIBSON, Ben Tootle, Billy Bullock, Derek McCallum

2010 Alex Wimmers, Niko Goodrum, PAT DEAN, EDDIE ROSARIO

2011: Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Corey Williams, Hudson Boyd, Madison Boer, Matt Summers

2012: BYRON BUXTON, JOSE BERRIOS, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargolis, Adam Walker, Zach Jones, TYLER DUFFEY

2013: Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stu Turner, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers

2014: Nick Gordon, Nick Burdi, Michael Cederoth, Sam Clay, Jake Reed

2015: Tyler Jay, Travis Blakenhorn, Trey Cabbage, Alex Robinson, Kyle Cody (didn't sign)

 

The last four drafts do look pretty promising, but you never know, especially when you see the dozen guys who made it to the majors out of the next 7 drafts. There was a minor benefit in finishing in the bottom of the league compared to being competitive when you look at the big picture.

 

I'm sure there are other teams that have developed many more top round picks than the Twins overall, and some teams that have developed even less.

[DaveW]

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:51 PM, alarp33 said:

At the 2013 trade deadline they were 1.5 years into that "extension", would that have been an ok time to trade? They were on the way to 96 losses, and would follow that up by losing 92 the following year.

 

I really don't think this was a case of hindsight at all, plenty of people were calling for him to be traded.

I also don't think bringing up Capps justifies it at all... "Don't do this smart thing, because you might follow it up with something really dumb"

Actually I would have been fine trading him at that point. My bad, I didn't realize it was that far into the deal.

[DaveW]

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:53 PM, jokin said:

All good points, except for the fact that the team was clearly years away from contending... a top-flite closer as a rule is an unneeded luxury on a rebuilding team, and Perk was most probably their best source of talent via trade for improving the team for the long-term.

 

And RPs by their nature are a bit unpredictable year to year, Perkins was not immune to that fact of life- many of us supported the move at the time.

Yeah, great points, I probably let my Perkins homer glasses blind me to these things haha. I hope he comes back strong for us at some point either way though.

[DaveW]

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:07 PM, Rosterman said:

Twins early round drafting, first 150 picks:

2005: MATT GARZA, Henry Sanchez, Paul Kelly, KEVIN SLOWEY, Drew Thompson. BRIAN DUENSING, Ryan Mullins, Caleb Moore

2006: CHRIS PARMELEE, JOE BENSON, TYLER ROBERTSON, Whit Robbins, Garrett Jones

2007: BEN REVERE, Angel Morales, Danny Rams, Reggie Williams

2008: AARON HICKS, Carlos Gutierrez, Shooter Hunt, Bobby Lanigan, TYLER LADENDORF, Danny Ortiz, Nick Romero

2009: KYLE GIBSON, Ben Tootle, Billy Bullock, Derek McCallum

2010 Alex Wimmers, Niko Goodrum, PAT DEAN, EDDIE ROSARIO

2011: Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Corey Williams, Hudson Boyd, Madison Boer, Matt Summers

2012: BYRON BUXTON, JOSE BERRIOS, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargolis, Adam Walker, Zach Jones, TYLER DUFFEY

2013: Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stu Turner, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers

2014: Nick Gordon, Nick Burdi, Michael Cederoth, Sam Clay, Jake Reed

2015: Tyler Jay, Travis Blakenhorn, Trey Cabbage, Alex Robinson, Kyle Cody (didn't sign)

 

The last four drafts do look pretty promising, but you never know, especially when you see the dozen guys who made it to the majors out of the next 7 drafts. There was a minor benefit in finishing in the bottom of the league compared to being competitive when you look at the big picture.

 

I'm sure there are other teams that have developed many more top round picks than the Twins overall, and some teams that have developed even less.

It's important to keep in mind that a lot of the "worse" draft classes in that example were years the Twins were drafting mid to late in the first round. So basically, the last 4 year draft classes should definitely be looking more promising! That 2011 one looks rough currently, but looks to be the exception and not the rule.

 

Overall if I had to guess the twins would

Be slightly below average during this time, they certainly could have "hit" on more picks, but it could have been worse. Again that is purely a guess with no research.

Edited May 24, 2016 by DaveW

[d-mac]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 7:16 PM, jokin said:

My point is we can't keep crying poor about the lack of depth of resources. Right now the main poverty surrounding this club is the paucity of cleverness and intrepidity.

 

And it's not like we're a small market team anymore, either. And when Mauer's contract comes off the books we'll have plenty of budget room to go after a top free-agent pitcher.

[Kwak]

The Twins are insanely wedded to the concept of "Minnesota connection".  Likely, that was a big factor in retaining Perkins given the Twins were a "big loser" at the time and having a top closer isn't a priority. 

[d-mac]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:07 PM, Rosterman said:

Twins early round drafting, first 150 picks:

2005: MATT GARZA, Henry Sanchez, Paul Kelly, KEVIN SLOWEY, Drew Thompson. BRIAN DUENSING, Ryan Mullins, Caleb Moore

2006: CHRIS PARMELEE, JOE BENSON, TYLER ROBERTSON, Whit Robbins, Garrett Jones

2007: BEN REVERE, Angel Morales, Danny Rams, Reggie Williams

2008: AARON HICKS, Carlos Gutierrez, Shooter Hunt, Bobby Lanigan, TYLER LADENDORF, Danny Ortiz, Nick Romero

2009: KYLE GIBSON, Ben Tootle, Billy Bullock, Derek McCallum

2010 Alex Wimmers, Niko Goodrum, PAT DEAN, EDDIE ROSARIO

2011: Levi Michael, Travis Harrison, Corey Williams, Hudson Boyd, Madison Boer, Matt Summers

2012: BYRON BUXTON, JOSE BERRIOS, Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargolis, Adam Walker, Zach Jones, TYLER DUFFEY

2013: Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stu Turner, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers

2014: Nick Gordon, Nick Burdi, Michael Cederoth, Sam Clay, Jake Reed

2015: Tyler Jay, Travis Blakenhorn, Trey Cabbage, Alex Robinson, Kyle Cody (didn't sign)

 

The last four drafts do look pretty promising, but you never know, especially when you see the dozen guys who made it to the majors out of the next 7 drafts. There was a minor benefit in finishing in the bottom of the league compared to being competitive when you look at the big picture.

 

I'm sure there are other teams that have developed many more top round picks than the Twins overall, and some teams that have developed even less.

 

God, that 2011 draft was awful. 

[d-mac]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:26 PM, DaveW said:

It's important to keep in mind that a lot of the "worse" draft classes in that example were years the Twins were drafting mid to late in the first round. So basically, the last 4 year draft classes should definitely be looking more promising! That 2011 one looks rough currently, but looks to be the exception and not the rule.

Overall if I had to guess the twins would
Be slightly below average during this time, they certainly could have "hit" on more picks, but it could have been worse. Again that is purely a guess with no research.

 

Actually, they drafted quite poorly. Out of the 7 drafts 2005-2011, they had 3 regular starting players (Garza, Revere, Gibson), 4 role players (Duenseng, Slowey, Hicks, Rosario?), and few more "cups of coffee." On average a team will get at least one major league regular per draft, plus role players and various replacement level players. 

[Kwak]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:26 PM, DaveW said:

It's important to keep in mind that a lot of the "worse" draft classes in that example were years the Twins were drafting mid to late in the first round. So basically, the last 4 year draft classes should definitely be looking more promising! That 2011 one looks rough currently, but looks to be the exception and not the rule.

Overall if I had to guess the twins would
Be slightly below average during this time, they certainly could have "hit" on more picks, but it could have been worse. Again that is purely a guess with no research.

I wouldn't have guessed that you had taken a Big Gulp of the Twins Kool-Aid about "no good players available when it's our turn to draft".  Other teams found players--or shall I say were able to develop major league players, while the Twins are stuck with marginally skilled talent if not outright bums.

[DaveW]

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:43 PM, d-mac said:

Actually, they drafted quite poorly. Out of the 7 drafts 2005-2011, they had 3 regular starting players (Garza, Revere, Gibson), 4 role players (Duenseng, Slowey, Hicks, Rosario?), and few more "cups of coffee." On average a team will get at least one major league regular per draft, plus role players and various replacement level players.

Actually yeah, you are right. I was trying to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt in this case, I thought at least they had "done" the draft ok overall. But this looks to be another area that has to be fixed/personal changed over.

 

I guess the international scouting has at least done a good job? Sano, Kepler, Park all are nice players.

[DaveW]

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:44 PM, Kwak said:

I wouldn't have guessed that you had taken a Big Gulp of the Twins Kool-Aid about "no good players available when it's our turn to draft". Other teams found players--or shall I say were able to develop major league players, while the Twins are stuck with marginally skilled talent if not outright bums.

After taking another look, it looks like every draft the twins had between 2007-2011 were not very "special". Especially with huge question marks around Gibson and Rosario now.

 

Yeesh.

[gocgo]

A couple of things to consider.  First, let's not assume that an experience GM wants the job.  We may only have first time candidates to chose from.

 

Second, when it comes to signing free agent pitchers, the numbers don't lie and the numbers for 30+ pitchers aren't pretty in terms of them staying healthy or improving.  So, I would avoid signing pitchers to long term deals when those deals are taking them beyond the wall known as 30 years old.  That wall has been defied by only a few and a couple of those few were known PED users.  I think one area where TR has failed is hiring pitchers and hoping they defy the odds.

[Jgcarew]

The right time to change? No ones likes change, until it starts paying dividends. Pride and fear conspire to tell us not to change.

When it comes to the GM, it's a matter of trust.

I like what the Cubs did. They went and got the best GM. Who then in turn went and got the best field manager.

On the other end of Chicago, their GM was faced with a need to rebuild. But he saw that he had 2 front line arms under control. So he move aggressively forward.

Houston and Oakland do well with the math majors advising. As all teams do now.

Keeping x twins around is fine. As you trust who you know.

But in moving players and in making plans (to rebuild)... My only knock on TR is that he never -ever- sells high. And alway gets caught in log jamming positions. Of course he has sold high when got log jammed in center field and catcher. And then was forced to look for help there too. Bad luck? Bad planning? How does one so conservative get caught like that? And why buy up all mediocre pitchers available, and lock them in long term.

[old nurse]

Outside of Boston,  nobody has done well so far with the draft of 2011.  One out of three of the top 20 have developed, very few others after that.

[d-mac]

 

  On 5/24/2016 at 8:48 PM, DaveW said:

Actually yeah, you are right. I was trying to give the Twins the benefit of the doubt in this case, I thought at least they had "done" the draft ok overall. But this looks to be another area that has to be fixed/personal changed over.

I guess the international scouting has at least done a good job? Sano, Kepler, Park all are nice players.

 

It's not like the Twins were always bad in this area. The 2002-2010 teams were mostly based off success from the draft and player development in the mid 90s to about 2003,2004. The issue of not being able to develop players is one of the top three reasons for the Twin's struggles in this decade. Whether that's a failure of scouting, player development, or a combination of both, from an outside position it is impossible to separate one from the other.