Article: The Deterioration of Kevin Jepsen

[Cody Christie]

In the midst of a surprise playoff push last season, the Twins dealt two minor league players including one of the team's top-20 prospects for some relief help. Kevin Jepsen had playoff experience during his time in Los Angeles and he had been productive with Tampa Bay. There was an extra year of team control attached to Jepsen so Minnesota brought him into the fold.

 

His first 29 appearances with the Twins were very good. He posted a 1.61 ERA and a 25 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up 10 saves. It might have been the best stretch of pitching in his big league career. More importantly, he was doing this at a time when the Twins were fighting for the playoffs and Glen Perkins was trying to pitch through an injury before being shut down for the year.The 2016 season has seen a very different Jepsen in a Twins uniform. His ERA is north of 5.00 and he's never posted a season ERA that high in any season where he's thrown more than 15 innings. He's already surrendered four home runs which is tied for the second most he has ever allowed in a season.

 

It's clear that something isn't clicking for Mr. Jepsen.

 

Over the last two seasons, Jepsen has been used a lot. From 2014 through 2015, the only AL pitcher with more than Jepsen's 149 appearances is Bryan Shaw (154 appearances). Jepsen lead AL pitchers in appearances in 2015. He will turn 32 later this summer so there could be a lethal combination of innings adding up with his age.

 

One of the biggest changes this season might be Jepsen's ability use his fastball effectively. Opponents are hitting .300/.338/.583 off his fastball after posting a measly .546 OPS in 2015. His fastball velocity has also been declining over the last three seasons. During the 2014 campaign, his average velocity stay at 95 mph or higher for nearly every appearance. This season he's been limited to two outings where the average velocity on his fastball was 95 mph.

 

Jepsen's curveball has been his most effective pitch for striking out batters throughout his career. However, this season there have been limited opportunities to use this pitch because he can't get ahead of batters early in the count. His SO/9 rate is 8.4 for his career and that number has dropped to 6.2 so far this year.

 

Minnesota's bullpen needs help and the struggles are not limited to Jepsen. The plan was for Trevor May, Jepsen and Perkins to be a relief pitching trio which could bridge the gap from the starter to the end of the game. That plan hasn't worked yet and it isn't all Jepsen's fault.

 

Closers get a lot of focus because of the big leverage outs they are asked to get. Jepsen has not been the same pitcher this season and Twins Territory is frustrated with the way this season has started. In the end, Jepsen is going to need to find what life is left in his right arm to show he can continue to be a late inning pitcher.

 

Otherwise, he might become the fan's punching bag as the losses continue to mount.

 

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[jun]

To be fair, both Jepsen and May have been horrible this season. May gave up 5 home runs already. He has allowed quite a few inherited runners to score. I really think May is way overrated. Jepsen might be gone after this season. May is still going to be around though.

[Rosterman]

Not sure what to make of May. He has been getting pounded lately. I would like to think that he doesn't truly know his status out of the bullpen...setuo, long man, future starter, whatever.

 

But Jepsen. Unless we have someone better in the wings, at least let him pitch in games that we are down, or have a big lead. Not sure what he needs to do to increase his value (which he wants to do, entering free agency himself). At least he didn't give up a home run against K.C.

 

But it has been a strange 40+ games. Thought Pressley was a find, but NOT. Tonkin ahs been a surprise, although he isn't really a special arm out of the bullpen. Abad makes you want to look at a longterm contract, but the Twins WOULD BE BETTER if they sold high when they can on this guy. We will probably see at least a trio of minor league free agents before the season is done and maybe the Twins can flip them too. But until we get to see Burdi, Reed, Chargolis, Hildenberger, Bard and any number of other guys NOT on the 40-man, we won't be excited when the call goes to the bullpen.

 

May.work him up as long relief with the potential to start if you aren't going to groom him as a closer. I have hopes for May, but we continue to hear the rally cry that people are being misued. This guy may be that poster child for the organization in 2016.

[mikelink45]

Jepsen gave us a career year and the Twins thought they struck gold.  How many times has that happened (think Suzuki).  But more bothersome to me is May.  I think we have taken a live arm and may have ruined his future.  Taking a starting pitcher and then pushing him to twice as many games a year as a reliever reminds me of taking a third baseman and putting him in right field. 

[Platoon]

Abad will likely end up like Suzuki, Perkins, Willingham, even Nunez. And there are times and teams where the "you can't trade all your good players away" guys are correct. But this isn't one of them.

[Thrylos]

Deterioration?  What deterioration.  You can talk about Perkins' deterioration, but this is what Kevin Jepsen has been.

 

2015 .242 BABIP, 81.9 % LOB, 7.4 HR/FB  & 3.85 SIERA, 4.04 xFIP

2016 .328 BABIP, 68.4 % LOB, 14.7 HR/FB  & 4.34 SIERA, 4.86 xFIP

 

Velocity of FB, SL, and CH are the same.  Had they dropped to Perkins' levels then we can talk about deterioration.  2016 is a just below average season for Jepsen.  He is almost 32 and declining, but not deteriorating (like the Twins' proven closer) by any means...

 

Jepsen is a decent middle reliever who pitched way over his head last season and has fallen to the ground.  Hard.   Lucky that Ryan did not extend him too.

 

He is what he is.  Unfortunately too many people did not look at his peripherals in 2015 and thought that he would be more.

 

Simple.

 

The only thing that deteriorated was (some) people's dreams about who Jepsen was.

Edited May 24, 2016 by Thrylos

[KGB]

 

Jepsen gave us a career year and the Twins thought they struck gold.  How many times has that happened (think Suzuki).  But more bothersome to me is May.  I think we have taken a live arm and may have ruined his future.  Taking a starting pitcher and then pushing him to twice as many games a year as a reliever reminds me of taking a third baseman and putting him in right field. 

Moving a starting pitcher to relief is a pretty common.  I don't see how that would ruin May.  Hopefully like many relief pitchers, he just going through a bad stretch.  If that not the case, than it's more likely he been overrated not ruined by the move.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Jepsen looks scared out there this year.

[Homer Hanky]

If we need two outs... he is our guy... after that... wow... it is scary!!! 

 

put ABAD as the closer

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure what is going on with May.  Might not hurt to DL Jepsen.  Wonder if he's going through some dead arm or something like that.

[Danchat]

I just don't get how Jepsen, May, and Pressly have all been terrible. Is their water poisoned or something? 

[DocBauer]

I confess to not following all the teams and players the way I used to. I just don't have time any longer. I used to be able to recite almost any starting lineup and most rotations and a plethora of relievers that weren't closers. But alas, my knowledge of players in the league A-Z is not what it used to be. But it's still good enough that when we traded for Jepsen I had a "who?" moment.

 

But his career seemed solid, and I thought, OK, him and another guy yet to come who is even better and we could be in business. That, and Pelfrey to the pen, and we got a shot! Of course, Ryan had other plans. Or rather...he didnt. Except, of course, to move May to the pen when he was one of our better starters, keep starting Pelfrey.....Oh forget it. Just not going down this road again.

 

Maybe we really did just get lucky with Jepsen last year. I still think it was smart to bring him back this year, but ONE MORE TIME, along with SOMEONE ELSE. I believe Thrylos is correct, he's a solid, experienced middle guy who can pitch some setup once in a while. But full time setup and occassional closer is just not his role. What's wrong? Probably his role, for one. But I don't know, maybe losing really is a disease that you can catch.

 

Tonkin is by no means great, but he's actually surprised me this year. Pressly has surprised in a negative fashion similar to Jepsen. At this point, what I hope for, and what I'd do, is move Hughes to the pen. I'd be promoting Chargois soon. Jepsen would be a middle man with Pressly. And I'd send May to Rochester to relax, and stretch him out. I'm not anxious to move Abad. He's pitching well, has at least some history of success, may be worth bringing back, is inexpensive, and I'm unconvinced yet, despite all this, that a return would be better than keeping him. I think Rogers has potential.

 

Pen: Hughes, Chargois, Jepsen, Tonkin, Pressly and Tonkin. Abad and Rogers from the left side.

[DocBauer]

To be fair, both Jepsen and May have been horrible this season. May gave up 5 home runs already. He has allowed quite a few inherited runners to score. I really think May is way overrated. Jepsen might be gone after this season. May is still going to be around though.

 

Despite his struggles this year, I am not down on May. I think, like a lot of guys, he's just not performing up to his potential. It's the "why" that is the question. He did really well last year when given his shot in the pen. Not every pitcher is meant to be a starter, and not every pitcher is meant to be a reliever. Some can even do both, though they are usually better at one vs the other.

 

In either role, it is a learning and adapting process. And either role can take time to get a grip on. I think we often simply assume the pen is easier to succeed in vs starting, but your sequence is different than being a starter, if that is what you are used to. Often, you come in with runners on you didn't place there. And day to day, you don't always know if or when you will pitch.

 

My theory? In addition to learning how to adapt to being a RP, I think May was pitching well, in a groove, and was happy to help the team. This year, I think he was disappointed, and rather mislead about his chances to earn a SP spot. Further, through failings of the current rotation or poor planning by Molitor, or both, I think his role has been undetermined and the pressure to perform has been immense.

 

As a SP prospect, he was a big strapping kid who could make a bunch of starts and give a lot of innings. While not a probable #1...and let me state again you just can't easily say or predict who will develop in to a true #1...he had the stuff and potential to be anywhere from a quality #2, at worse, a quality #4. The biggest issue was pure, consistent control.

 

And that is where the real "crime" and disappointment of the handling of May comes back in to play again. Dead horse abuse aside, he was pitching well in 2015 as a member of the rotation, and getting better, with much better control, when he was moved to the pen. And for a team that has struggled developing quality young SP for several years, to take one you actually have and mess with him by bouncing around, is almost unforgivable. Especially for the sake of a poor performing veteran pending FA like Pelfrey?!

 

Send him down. Stretch him out. Get his confidence built back up, get him in a nice groove, then bring him back up.

 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Not to stoke the fire, but ...

 

Chih Wei Hu (2016): 7 GS in AA, 1 GS in AAA

2-2 (W-L), 1.60 ERA, 45.0 IP, 41 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 46 K, 1.16 WHIP

 

Stephen Gonsalves (2016): 8 GS in High-A

5-1 (W-L), 1.89 ERA, 47.2 IP, 26 H, 10 ER, 2 HR, 17 BB, 43 K, 0.90 WHIP

 

Take away Hu's spot start in AAA and the numbers are even better (0.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). Basically he is matching, if not besting, the Twins top pitching prospect at a higher level. Gonsalves turns 22 in July. Hu won't turn 23 until November.

 

I hated the Jepson trade last year and definitely hate it even more now. It was defensible last year as the Twins needed bullpen help for their playoff "push." But as it was the only move Ryan made last July/August of any significance, you really can't call it a "push." So it was a wasted, unsupported move that cost the Twins, IMO, one of their Top-10 prospects. 

[DaveW]

Yeah, I thought giving up Hu was way too much at the time. They could have gotten Jepsen for less IMO.

 

Obviously this only confirms that fear.

[Thrylos]

 

Not to stoke the fire, but ...

 

Chih Wei Hu (2016): 7 GS in AA, 1 GS in AAA

2-2 (W-L), 1.60 ERA, 45.0 IP, 41 H, 8 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 46 K, 1.16 WHIP

 

Stephen Gonsalves (2016): 8 GS in High-A

5-1 (W-L), 1.89 ERA, 47.2 IP, 26 H, 10 ER, 2 HR, 17 BB, 43 K, 0.90 WHIP

 

Take away Hu's spot start in AAA and the numbers are even better (0.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). Basically he is matching, if not besting, the Twins top pitching prospect at a higher level. Gonsalves turns 22 in July. Hu won't turn 23 until November.

 

Depends how one is counting, Gonsalves is from 3rd to 5th Twins' best pitching prospect. Not the best by any means.   Plus I'd rather have Gonsalves than Hu every day, unless Hu learned to pitch with the other arm.

 

The problem I had with that trade is that Ryan did his spendthrift thing, instead of going after a couple of arms that were better than Perkins who was faltering (apparently from shoulder issues) while the Twins were competing, he went for Jepsen and Cotts.   This season is a great example on why Ryan should had been all in during the deadline as some of us were suggesting...

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Depends how one is counting, Gonsalves is from 3rd to 5th Twins' best pitching prospect. Not the best by any means.   Plus I'd rather have Gonsalves than Hu every day, unless Hu learned to pitch with the other arm.

 

The problem I had with that trade is that Ryan did his spendthrift thing, instead of going after a couple of arms that were better than Perkins who was faltering (apparently from shoulder issues) while the Twins were competing, he went for Jepsen and Cotts.   This season is a great example on why Ryan should had been all in during the deadline as some of us were suggesting...

 

Who do you have ahead of Gonsalves? Besides Berrios.

 

Stewart (low K-rate)? Jay (7 or 8 actual starts removed from being a full time reliever)? Thorpe (coming off TJ surgery)?

[alarp33]

 

Who do you have ahead of Gonsalves? Besides Berrios.

 

Stewart (low K-rate)? Jay (7 or 8 actual starts removed from being a full time reliever)? Thorpe (coming off TJ surgery)?

 

Definitely Stewart and Jay.  You're scouting the stat line

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Definitely Stewart and Jay.  You're scouting the stat line

 

Yep! Why is that a problem?

 

I tend to like on-field results rather than people's thoughts on a prospect's potential. Kinda like Tyler Duffey vs. Alex Meyer.

[Thrylos]

 

Who do you have ahead of Gonsalves? Besides Berrios.

 

Stewart (low K-rate)? Jay (7 or 8 actual starts removed from being a full time reliever)? Thorpe (coming off TJ surgery)?

 

I personally had Jay and Burdi, besides Berrios.

BA had Stewart as well.

 

It is all about ceiling and likelihood to achieve this ceiling.  I think that Hu topped up in the high teens for me.

 

Milone should be the Twins' best prospect based on AAA performance  

Edited May 25, 2016 by Thrylos

[alarp33]

 

Yep! Why is that a problem?

 

I tend to like on-field results rather than people's thoughts on a prospect's potential. Kinda like Tyler Duffey vs. Alex Meyer.

 

Because these guys are in A ball and a long ways from the Majors.  Putting Gonsalves behind Stewart and Jay, two top 100 prospects in all of baseball, is no knock on him for what its worth

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

 

Milone should be the Twins' best prospect based on AAA performance

 

Come on.

 

Basically, my point is that sooner or later potential has to show up on the field.

 

Prospect rankings are fun but a lot of the times seem to ignore actual production (you know, what actually wins games). Jay was rated as a Top-5/6 prospect based on the ASSUMPTION that he would be a dominant starter which was in turn based on an entire college career of relieving.

[Thrylos]

 

Come on.

 

Basically, my point is that sooner or later potential has to show up on the field.

 

I totally agree, that's why in my lists Sano was always ahead of Buxton (and Polanco was ahead of Buxton once,)   and that's why Gordon barely made it into top 10.

 

The problem is that minor league performance, esp for pitchers and esp below AAA, does not always equal expected MLB-performance, because, since the minors are developmental leagues, these guys may get shelled by throwing 10 changeups in a row, if that's what they need to work on a particular game.  Stuff and potential is a key.  Jay could be the best lefty out of the Twins' pen now and Chargois the best righty.  That should matter.

Edited May 25, 2016 by Thrylos

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

I totally agree, that's why in my lists Sano was always ahead of Buxton (and Polanco was ahead of Buxton once,)   and that's why Gordon barely made it into top 10.

 

The problem is that minor league performance, esp for pitchers and esp below AAA, does not always equal expected MLB-performance, because, since the minors are developmental leagues, these guys may get shelled by throwing 10 changeups in a row, if that's what they need to work on a particular game.  Stuff and potential is a key.  Jay could be the best lefty out of the Twins' pen now and Chargois the best righty.  That should matter.

 

Ok, it seems we're speaking the same language.

 

I know we got off on a tangent. The point is the Jepson-Hu trade sucked then and sucks even more now.