Article: How To Fix These Twins

[Platoon]

I was about 800 words into a solution for the Twins when the site crashed yet again, like about the 267th time this weekend. The short version is almost everyone's opinion of the Twins is correct, because in reality, the whole team from the FO on down is currently a mess. But those who call for patience have the first step in the solution, correct. It's going to be a slog to get there, regardless of who was to blame, and the issues are so prevalent and intertwined that every move will result in the necessity for more adjustments to make the initial move work. For example trading Plouffe moves Sano, Arcia, and eventually Buxton and Kepler. You can just trade Plouffe, and move Sano, but to me that is not the end. It has to be followed by a long term adjustment of the OF. The bottom line is the team, not unlike Plouffe have this in common. All of the parts, offense, defense, pitching, as a stand alone entity could get by at this level. But combining them coordinates each parts weaknesses with the corresponding weakness of another part, i.e. PTC with poor OF defense. One would like to think that when constructing a team, one would take into consideration the PTC style of the pitching staff when allocating OF spots. Or even vice versa. But they either didn't, or have a different evaluation of players than many do. Regardless, the results are in, and they are not good.

Edited May 15, 2016 by Platoon

[TKGuy]

I would add trade Plouffe and put Sano back in the infield. That would give you room to promote Buxton and Kepler and play Arcia everyday. If I remember correctly, the Twins will have huge decisions to make on the 40-man this offseason

[cjj td]

Looked like Plouffe had roots in yesterday's game.  Not saying Sano makes every play, but he can certainly be as good or better than Plouffe was yesterday.

[by jiminy]

I agree with the people who said that finding out of May and Meyer can be parts of a future winning rotation is one of the most important issues to resolve. And a lost year is the perfect time to find out.

 

What people often forget however is how how much of a strain that could put on an already struggling bullpen. The knock on May was he often couldn't make it six innings, and Meyer often couldn't make it three. If those problems continue who picks up the slack? It's a real concern.

 

One answer might be, Hughes and Nolasco. If they get bumped to the bullpen, they could be the guys who mop up when May and Meyer leave early, which could be often.

 

It may or may not be good for Meyer and May to take their knocks in the majors instead of working on specific pitches in the minors. I don't know. But if Nolasco and Hughes aren't long term answers, it's worth a try.

 

If Hughes is still looked at as a potential rotation guy on a winning timea, it might benefit him to move to the bullpen a while anyway. But Nolasco they should probably only start to build up his trade value.

 

On the whole I have no problem with letting Nolasco and Hughes start a little longer, if the reason is to give Meyer time to develop. I don't necessarily agree that the only way to develop a young player is to throw him out there in the majors and let him sink or swim. I don't think that worked for Gomez, Buxton, Meyer, etc. But if major league service time IS what they need, this is the perfect opportunity to do it.

 

[tobi0040]

 

I agree with the people who said that finding out of May and Meyer can be parts of a future winning rotation is one of the most important issues to resolve. And a lost year is the perfect time to find out.

 

What people often forget however is how how much of a strain that could put on an already struggling bullpen. The knock on May was he often couldn't make it six innings, and Meyer often couldn't make it three. If those problems continue who picks up the slack? It's a real concern.

 

One answer might be, Hughes and Nolasco. If they get bumped to the bullpen, they could be the guys who mop up when May and Meyer leave early, which could be often.

 

It may or may not be good for Meyer and May to take their knocks in the majors instead of working on specific pitches in the minors. I don't know. But if Nolasco and Hughes aren't long term answers, it's worth a try.

 

If Hughes is still looked at as a potential rotation guy on a winning timea, it might benefit him to move to the bullpen a while anyway. But Nolasco they should probably only start to build up his trade value.

 

On the whole I have no problem with letting Nolasco and Hughes start a little longer, if the reason is to give Meyer time to develop. I don't necessarily agree that the only way to develop a young player is to throw him out there in the majors and let him sink or swim. I don't think that worked for Gomez, Buxton, Meyer, etc. But if major league service time IS what they need, this is the perfect opportunity to do it.

 

May and Meyer don't have to be put in the rotation at the exact same time.  But we can always add an extra pitcher to alleviate taxing the pen.  I mean, what good is a bench spot for a late inning pinch hitting attempt on a team that is going to win 50-60 games?  As long as the team is committed to something and the focus shifts, we can work around these things.

 

But when you have a 50 win team that acts like this is game 163, then you have issues.

[Deduno Abides]

Baggy, good article, based on a realistic look at the mentality of team management. Different management would do it differently, prioritizing the development of the most important young players, before worrying about Casey Fien, Eddie Rosario, etc. In order:

 

1. Decide what is more important for Miguel Sano to master, hitting major league pitching or playing right field. I'd pick hitting, a stubborn person would pick playing right field. If it's hitting that's most important, the first thing to do is move him to a position where he can focus on hitting. Sano to DH or 3B is the first step.

 

2. Plouffe to OF or another team is the second step. Park/Mauer are DH/1B, unless Park is traded or someone decides that Mauer, like Yogi Berra, can play OF. Therefore, because step 1 will be complete by moving Sano to 3B, Plouffe has to move. Sorry, Trevor, you have built a good career and been a good team member. It's nothing personal, but, precisely because you have value, your final role for the Twins will be to be traded for someone better than Daniel Palka.

 

3. Get Buxton's eye ready. Stop focusing on his outcomes; everyone knows that he is an uber athlete that can do amazing things if he hits the ball and gets on base. The primary task for him now is to increase his ratio of swings at hittable balls. When he displays mastery of the strike zone and breaking balls, bring him up and let him roll.

 

4. Get Berrios to relax. One of the many downsides of the Twins' promotion processes is that players start thinking they have to be Superman to get promoted over the veteran scrubeenies ahead of them in the depth charts. Then, when they are promoted, there's an atmosphere of "Don't screw up." The result is that people try to be perfect. Berrios is the most talented pitcher in the system, including the major league staff. Tell him he's good, but that he doesn't need to strike out 12 a game to keep his job, and just let him pitch.

 

5. Let Kepler hit. Joe Maddon recently said he wasn't going to promote someone because of an injury need because he wanted the player to complete his development. The Twins, of course, are competing for the first draft choice next year, instead of the World Series this year, so you'd think they would share that opinion, but for some cockamamie reason they seem to think it's better for developing players to sit on the bench of a losing team than to play everyday. Let Kepler play everyday. When he's succeeding regularly, bring him up. Regularly means more than 10 days. He'll be ready when he's hitting well the second time he sees teams.

 

6. Polanco's next three years are likely to be better than Dozier's, at a much lower cost. In fact, his next three months could be better than Dozier's. Management should get what it can for Dozier, before the market is gone. If trade offers are sparse, he'd be a fine utility player, including OF. His hitting may even improve, as teams stop game planning for his tendencies. But Polanco should be 2B going forward.

 

7. Stabilize the bullpen with veterans, namely displaced starters, starting with Phil Hughes and Tommy Milone. Over short periods, they should be able to get K/9 ratios above 10. Hughes should be able to let it fly for one inning a few times a week.

 

8. Figure out Alex Meyer. He is talented. He started off the year in AAA great, until the management yo yo started. His weakness as a starter is not talent, but composure. Hopefully, Stu Cliburn and Neil Allen can focus on developing his composure. He should be as good as Juan Nicasio, and likely will be better, if given the right coaching.

Edited May 15, 2016 by Deduno Abides

[Mr. Brooks]

Baggy, good article, based on a realistic look at the mentality of team management. Different management would do it differently, prioritizing the development of the most important young players, before worrying about Casey Fien, Eddie Rosario, etc. In order:

 

1. Decide what is more important for Miguel Sano to master, hitting major league pitching or playing right field. I'd pick hitting, a stubborn person would pick playing right field. If it's hitting that's most important, the first thing to do is move him to a position where he can focus on hitting. Sano to DH or 3B is the first step.

 

2. Plouffe to OF or another team is the second step. Park/Mauer are DH/1B, unless Park is traded or someone decides that Mauer, like Yogi Berra, can play OF. Therefore, because step 1 will be complete by moving Sano to 3B, Plouffe has to move. Sorry, Trevor, you have built a good career and been a good team member. It's nothing personal, but, precisely because you have value, your final role for the Twins will be to be traded for someone better than Daniel Palka.

 

3. Get Buxton's eye ready. Stop focusing on his outcomes; everyone knows that he is an uber athlete that can do amazing things if he hits the ball and gets on base. The primary task for him now is to increase his ratio of swings at hittable balls. When he displays mastery of the strike zone and breaking balls, bring him up and let him roll.

 

4. Get Berrios to relax. One of the many downsides of the Twins' promotion processes is that players start thinking they have to be Superman to get promoted over the veteran scrubeenies ahead of them in the depth charts. Then, when they are promoted, there's an atmosphere of "Don't screw up." The result is that people try to be perfect. Berrios is the most talented pitcher in the system, including the major league staff. Tell him he's good, but that he doesn't need to strike out 12 a game to keep his job, and just let him pitch.

 

5. Let Kepler hit. Joe Maddon recently said he wasn't going to promote someone because of an injury need because he wanted the player to complete his development. The Twins, of course, are competing for the first draft choice next year, instead of the World Series this year, so you'd think they would share that opinion, but for some cockamamie reason they seem to think it's better for developing players to sit on the bench of a losing team than to play everyday. Let Kepler play everyday. When he's succeeding regularly, bring him up. Regularly means more than 10 days. He'll be ready when he's hitting well the second time he sees teams.

 

6. Polanco's next three years are likely to be better than Dozier's, at a much lower cost. In fact, his next three months could be better than Dozier's. Management should get what it can for Dozier, before the market is gone. If trade offers are sparse, he'd be a fine utility player, including OF. His hitting may even improve, as teams stop game planning for his tendencies. But Polanco should be 2B going forward.

 

7. Stabilize the bullpen with veterans, namely displaced starters, starting with Phil Hughes and Tommy Milone. Over short periods, they should be able to get K/9 ratios above 10. Hughes should be able to let it fly for one inning a few times a week.

 

8. Figure out Alex Meyer. He is talented. He started off the year in AAA great, until the management yo yo started. His weakness as a starter is not talent, but composure. Hopefully, Stu Cliburn and Neil Allen can focus on developing his composure. He should be as good as Juan Nicasio, and likely will be better, if given the right coaching.

Great post.

I agree nearly 100% on all points.

The only addendum being I'd add to #7 moving May into the rotation.

The club has claimed all along that they havent closed the book on him starting. Well, if there is ever going to be a golden opportunity to move him back, it's now.

[tobi0040]

 

Well, if there is ever going to be a golden opportunity to move him back, it's now.

 

The irritating thing is the obvious move is to switch May and Hughes.  But Hughes contract will give him another 30 starts with a 5.00+ ERA.   This is not how winning franchises operate.

[stringer bell]

I think Brian Dozier is a better player now than Jorge Polanco and I think that it is pretty likely that Dozier will always be a better player than Polanco, but for the first time since Dozier emerged (three years ago), I believe that it may be time to move Dozier for a better fit on the team (Polanco). The assumption for a long time has been that soon the best two players on the team will be RH hitting youngsters Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. I hope that day arrives some time in the second half of the year. Of the next five most established players on the Twins, four of them hit right handed (Dozier, Plouffe, Suzuki, and Park). Dozier, Plouffe and Park are all players whose power is a big portion of their value. I want to see more guys who make contact, provide speed and defense, who maybe can hit at the top of the order. The projection for Polanco fills that bill better than today's Dozier.

 

As for playing Arcia for now and optioning Rosario, I get it. Right now Rosario is rolling a little better and Arcia is having a tough time. A week ago, the situation was reversed. Ideally, Rosario could be optioned, but until Buxton is ready, there really isn't anyone to replace Rosario, so I leave them alone for now and get both Arcia and Rosario enough at-bats. I don't think it would be a terrible idea to give Santana a day off or two, but I'm satisfied with his play in center and hitting ninth.

[Platoon]

I have had this nagging thought on Dozier for the last month. While guys like Arcia and Rosario take some pretty silly at bats, they appear to be caused by impatience and poor zone recognition. Doziers problems seem caused by either stubbornness or selfishness. Continually trying to hit everything into the second row of the LF corner. For someone who is one of the faces of the team, and thought by some as a team leader, that approach makes for a poor example. I would get what I could for him and move on.

[mazeville]

Agree with some, but not all of this.

 

First, trading Plouffe should be at the top of any fix-the-Twins agenda. Trade Plouffe. Put Sano at third and put Arcia in right field, with Rosario in left and Santana in center until Buxton comes up.

 

The problem with starting Arcia all the time is that your outfield defense suffers greatly. Rosario is struggling with the bat. But he brings some semblance of common sense to the outfield.

 

I'd much rather trade Dozier than Polanco. You're not going to get much of a return for an unproven rookie, even one on the team's top 10 list. 

 

To be honest, the best spot for Polanco might still be shortstop. But this team apparently doesn't want Polanco at short. So whatevs.

 

I still think the Twins should be open to trading any number of players, including pitchers. I'd consider trading Abad, any starter not named Duffey or Berrios, Dozier, Plouffe, Arcia, Escobar. I'd ponder prospect-for-prospect trades. Anything to right this ship. Frankly, nothing should be off the table -- even a trade of Sano or Buxton if the deal were right. (That's "if the deal were right" so don't go assuming that I'd give them away.)

[Brandon Warne]

 

It's to soon to say if they sold high on Hicks, I'm not convinced we've seen the best of him yet.

 

I won't say that necessarily either, but I think it was the right time based on what we've seen so far.

 

They did at the time on Carlos Gomez, too. Then A. the Brewers eventually (not right away) let Gomez do whatever he wanted and B. the Twins foolishly then sold low on Hardy for some reason.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I am not sure whether this is preposterous or not, so be nice, but...

 

The Yanks could use a 3b, so given his sophomore struggles, is there any chance Luis Severino could be had for Plouffe +?

 

I guess they probably don't want to sell low, so nevermind.

 

*clicks Post* "NO!!"

[Brandon Warne]

 

Trade Nunez while he's hot. He's old and in the way. 

 

He's exactly one month younger than Brian Dozier

[Linus]

Yep just like jr murphy is younger than Garver and turner. Oops...

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

He's exactly one month younger than Brian Dozier

You're right. He does seem older than he is (29 next month), but he simply is not going to be a part of the future of this team. His BA is dropping by the day ... regression to the mean. He is what he is: nothing special. So why is he taking up space on a rebuilding team? Answer: I don't know.

[magiklair]

 

I wouldn't trade Arcia (not yet at least), nor would I promote Buxton and Kepler at this point.  Buxton is turning a corner and personally I'd like him to reinforce those better habits he's learning in AAA.  Kepler isn't doing well there at all. 

 

Polanco is an odd situation.  He should be playing every day, why he's not up here I'm not sure.  As bad as the OF defense has been, I don't even understand why he cannot get the occasional OF start.  He cannot possibly be worse than Sano out there, but yeah, if they aren't going to play him, demote him or trade him.  The real problem with Polanco is that this is his last option year.  They need to figure out if he can stick at the ML level.

 

Yeah I like that kid. Hope to see more of him

[Jham]

 

You're right. He does seem older than he is (29 next month), but he simply is not going to be a part of the future of this team. His BA is dropping by the day ... regression to the mean. He is what he is: nothing special. So why is he taking up space on a rebuilding team? Answer: I don't know.

I think coming through the minors Nunez was almost universally perceived to be a higher rated prospect and better overall prospect than Dozier, particularly defensively.  Then Dozier started blasting home runs suddenly and unpredictably.  You do know what you have in Nunez.  No one knows what we have with Dozier anymore.

[Brandon Warne]

 

You're right. He does seem older than he is (29 next month), but he simply is not going to be a part of the future of this team. His BA is dropping by the day ... regression to the mean. He is what he is: nothing special. So why is he taking up space on a rebuilding team? Answer: I don't know.

 

.300/.344/.445 over his last 316 PA (this year and last). Don't know about you, but I'd give that a longer look.

[Mr. Brooks]

.300/.344/.445 over his last 316 PA (this year and last). Don't know about you, but I'd give that a longer look.

What's his babip over that stretch?

It's .390 this season. (Career .302)

Aside from that, he's a butcher in the field.

[Brandon Warne]

 

What's his babip over that stretch?
It's .390 this season. (Career .302)
Aside from that, he's a butcher in the field.

 

It's .365 right now and it's .340 over this year and last. He's proven to be about 40 points away from that mark over his time with the Twins. He's hit .279 with the Twins overall, with a .320 BABIP in about a full season worth of PA.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's .365 right now and it's .340 over this year and last. He's proven to be about 40 points away from that mark over his time with the Twins. He's hit .279 with the Twins overall, with a .320 BABIP in about a full season worth of PA.

So in other words this stretch of offense likely isn't sustainable once his babip normalizes.

[Brandon Warne]

 

So in other words this stretch of offense likely isn't sustainable once his babip normalizes.

 

Doesn't have to. His norms are a .270 batting average and a .310 BABIP over 1300+ big league PAs.

 

He doesn't have to keep hitting .330 to have value. I think that's where the craziness about him goes south for me. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Doesn't have to. His norms are a .270 batting average and a .310 BABIP over 1300+ big league PAs.

 

He doesn't have to keep hitting .330 to have value. I think that's where the craziness about him goes south for me.

1)I'm not saying he doesn't have value. I think he does. I'm on record in plenty of threads with how much I like him as a bench bat.

 

2) No, not .330, but he does have to significantly out hit his career averages to be an everyday player, considering how bad he is in the field.

 

3) I'm not arguing he doesn't belong on the team. I could go either way on that.

I'm arguing he shouldn't be blocking Polanco.

I'm sorry Brandon, with all due respect, I just think that's insane.

[Brandon Warne]

 

1)I'm not saying he doesn't have value. I think he does. I'm on record in plenty of threads with how much I like him as a bench bat.

2) No, not .330, but he does have to significantly out hit his career averages to be an everyday player, considering how bad he is in the field.

3) I'm not arguing he doesn't belong on the team. I could go either way on that.
I'm arguing he shouldn't be blocking Polanco.
I'm sorry Brandon, with all due respect, I just think that's insane.

 

There's a reason the team doesn't think he can stick at short. Tonight is the first time he started there, and they've had ample opportunity to play him there and just haven't. 

 

All I'm saying is the same arguments made for Polanco -- he can hit! he's not great defensively! -- apply for Nunez with less question marks for now. 

[Mr. Brooks]

There's a reason the team doesn't think he can stick at short. Tonight is the first time he started there, and they've had ample opportunity to play him there and just haven't.

 

All I'm saying is the same arguments made for Polanco -- he can hit! he's not great defensively! -- apply for Nunez with less question marks for now.

Well with all the mistakes and misevaluations that this organization has made the last few years, I don't think I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that Polanco can't play SS just because they say so.

 

And if Polanco can't out hit Nunez (.709 career OPS, 93 OPS+), then I'm going to be very disappointed.

[USAFChief]

 

Well with all the mistakes and misevaluations that this organization has made the last few years, I don't think I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that Polanco can't play SS just because they say so.

And if Polanco can't out hit Nunez (.709 career OPS, 93 OPS+), then I'm going to be very disappointed.

Teams can and do misjudge a player's ability to make the adjustments, or improvements necessary to hit big league pitching.  It's a difficult and inexact thing to do.

 

Teams rarely spend years looking at a guy play defense and err on the side of too much caution when it comes to playing middle infield.  If they have doubts about his ability to play SS in the big leagues, there's a very strong probability they're correct.

[Mr. Brooks]

Teams can and do misjudge a player's ability to make the adjustments, or improvements necessary to hit big league pitching. It's a difficult and inexact thing to do.

 

Teams rarely spend years looking at a guy play defense and err on the side of too much caution when it comes to playing middle infield. If they have doubts about his ability to play SS in the big leagues, there's a very strong probability they're correct.

I'll have to respectfully disagree.

I'm at a point with this organization where I don't really think they are competent at any aspect, aside from maybe concessions at Target Field.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Well with all the mistakes and misevaluations that this organization has made the last few years, I don't think I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that Polanco can't play SS just because they say so.

And if Polanco can't out hit Nunez (.709 career OPS, 93 OPS+), then I'm going to be very disappointed.

 

As I wrote today -- and I'm not saying you have to have read it, just making conversation -- there's a big divide between what Nunez did with the Yankees and the Twins. He's been better than that as a Twin by a fair margin.

[Mr. Brooks]

As I wrote today -- and I'm not saying you have to have read it, just making conversation -- there's a big divide between what Nunez did with the Yankees and the Twins. He's been better than that as a Twin by a fair margin.

I think he's been better, but I don't think the margin is as wide as you do, I think it's mostly luck based.