Article: How To Fix These Twins

[mikelink45]

I keep hearing about bringing Doug M up to manage, but isn't he part of the team that is preparing the youth for the majors and that transition has not looked so great.  It is not our talent, but the way that we handle it that has me really frustrated.  Some challenges are acceptable, but once in a while a player has to take off for more than an exceptional year.  If Molitor is not handling rookies correctly I believe he has a boss who could set some expectations. 

 

I like this article a lot, but lack confidence that the Twins can do this.  

[jorgenswest]

Mientkiewicz is managing a last place team in AA. He did a good job the last two years when he had the best talent in his league. I am sure he would do fine if given the best talent in the AL.

[nmcowboy]

 

I would seriously be satisfied with one simple move for the time being: 

 

I'd be satisfied if Terry Ryan flew to Cleveland today... Sat down with him in a formal setting and looked him in the eye and said: 

 

"Paul... I need the future to become a larger consideration in your decision making. Do you have any questions"?

 

That will satisfy me right now

Bingo!  Couldn't agree more.  My biggest frustration has been the handling of young call ups who just sit on the bench and rot.  Most notably Polanco and Kepler.  If you bring them up PLAY THEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bluechipper]

 

I was thrilled to see Alex Meyer start the season well, but in reality wasn't it like 3 games only 2 of which were starts?  Hardly enough to call him fixed.  After watching that one start he did get with the Twins I'm not too convinced.  His mechanics looked terrible.  He recoiled with every pitch and his arm slot looked so low it just looked awkward.  I'd park him in AAA for most of the year and try to work with him on mechanics and secondary pitches.  

Not to get into the whole Alex Meyer thing again, but it's hard not to be optimistic about how he looked in his start. The stuff looked to be back up to where it was before the shoulder issues. The results were solid when you include the pop fly HR and the small strike zone he was dealing with.

[bluechipper]

 

Really other than the Midwest League Buxton has never really torn it up anyplace since.  His numbers were decent, but he never dominated.  People like to point out stretches, but they are usually no longer than a month.  I'd like to see him in Rochester at least until the All-Star Break and make him dominate AAA.  Kepler never was given a chance to see if he could play this season, but same thing for him.  Give him a couple months and force their hand by dominating AAA.

An .887 OPS in 57 games in Fort Myers to finish 2013, then injuries killed 2014, and an .867 OPS between AA and AAA last year. Maybe not dominated, but just a notch below.

 

I hope Buxton doesn't spend two more months in AAA. If he keeps hitting, I say call him up within the next few weeks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't think Hughes is tradable right now.  The more I think about that one, I am leaning towards simply letting him close for the time being.  His velo is down, whether that's b/c there's something wrong or that he's just getting old, I don't know, but I'd put him in the pen for the remainder of the season to get some kids in the rotation.

 

Nolasco might be tradable... probably won't get much, but it's a win if he's off the roster by the deadline. 

 

Plouffe is tradable.  He wouldn't net much this offseason, so I'm not expecting much at the deadline, except that there are some needs at 3B right now that weren't there a two months ago.  Might get a B prospect for him.

 

Suzuki might be had for something, just b/c catching is a need, but given that he isn't hitting, I doubt it's for much.  That might force bringing up Turner or Garver a bit earlier, but I'd probably be OK with that.  Not sure either would be as good as Kurt is now, though both are probably better defenders. 

 

Perkins might get something if he comes back throwing well, but he's got 2 more years after this, so I wouldn't exactly hold my breath in terms of trade value. 

[jimbo92107]

Okay, I was slightly off when I said Rosario could be the best player on the Twins. I figured he would improve his whiff rate by being stingier at the plate. Nope, nope, nope. Instead, he decided he was Vlad Guerrero, able to hit anything within reach of a garden rake. 

 

Bad Eddie, bad! Go back to AAA and learn the boring discipline of a real MLB hitter! 

 

I disagree about Polanco. I think he could be a better hitter than Dozier, given time. Not the best time to trade Dozier, but from his perspective it would be liberation from a team that's going nowhere. 

 

Good points on Arcia. He could be a really good player on another team, but right now he's blocking Kepler. 

 

I'd also trade Plouffe and put Sano back at 3rd base. It's nice to know Sano can be a decent RF given time, but he's much better at 3rd, and it opens an outfield spot for the eventual trio of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Have to chuckle at the desire to see Murphy promoted as part of the youth movement. He's still hitting well below .200 at AAA right now and was terrible both offensively and defensively when he was up. I understand the catching situation is a joke, but penciling in Murphy as the everyday catcher towards the end of the season seems like a reach to me. 

 

We don't have a better option.  Though, in our trades this year, I hope it's a position highly prioritized.

[jorgenswest]

Kepler has 85 AAA plate appearances. There shouldn't be any discussion about blocking him before he has a considerable stretch dominating at that level. If he is dominating that level at the All Star break I will buy into the argument that Santana, Arcia, Plouffe or Rosario are blocking him. The Twins have had enough guys go from AA to the majors only to have to send them back. Giving Kepler 200-250 plate appearances in the AAA isn't going to hurt his development. It is the wise path.

[KirbyDome89]

 

It depends on what your objective for the rest of the season is.

If you still think we can make the playoffs, then sure, Murphy should stay down.

Personally, I think they have no chance to compete this year.
So, stats really mean nothing from here on out.
Give as much playing time to the youngsters.
We need to start the process of finding out who can sink, and who can swim. There are things you just can't learn about a guy at AAA.

Agreed this season is gone and stats don't really matter. I'm all for getting the young guys some playing time too. The problem is Murphy didn't just struggle to stay afloat, he drowned, and he's doing the same thing in AAA right now. If he turns it around, sure call him up, but he was awful to start the year with the Twins and he has been awful in Rochester. If things don't change at AAA then why would anybody expect them to if he's facing big league pitching. 

[operation mindcrime]

J.R. Graham traded to the Yankees. Good riddance! \m/

[Brandon Warne]

 

Kepler has 85 AAA plate appearances. There shouldn't be any discussion about blocking him before he has a considerable stretch dominating at that level. If he is dominating that level at the All Star break I will buy into the argument that Santana, Arcia, Plouffe or Rosario are blocking him. The Twins have had enough guys go from AA to the majors only to have to send them back. Giving Kepler 200-250 plate appearances in the AAA isn't going to hurt his development. It is the wise path.

 

Beyond that, he was only up because he was a warm body and on the 40-man roster. The same has been true about Polanco all along. It's unfortunate to be in that bind, but would you prefer that, or guys like Beresford and Mastroianni being added? It's a versatile 25-man roster, and I do believe for now that Nunez should be playing regularly. So that means not a lot of playing time for Polanco -- who incidentally has not played ANY shortstop all year. Could be telling....

[DJSim22]

I like Rosario, but you are right about him.  My problem with sending him down, is I don't want to see Buxton for at least another month.  I want to see Buxton have a nice run at AAA to give him the confidence and show consistency before another shot.  Kepler also needs to play, I see them both up for good at the trade deadline.

 

I don't see what trading Polanco does for you.  He can't have much value not playing at all.  If you want to trade an infielder it has to be Plouffe or Dozier.  I like them both and would hate to see them go, but they have some value.  Would trading Dozier get you a good C or SP prospect close to the majors?  I guess I don't know...

 

I agree with trading Arcia, want can you get with a one dimensional guy?

 

We need some more table setters too. Could Mauer, Buxton, and Polanco be those guys?  If Gordon could get here in 2018, that would definitely help.  We need speed. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Beyond that, he was only up because he was a warm body and on the 40-man roster. The same has been true about Polanco all along. It's unfortunate to be in that bind, but would you prefer that, or guys like Beresford and Mastroianni being added?

Add the journeymen. It appears there is no shortage of guys on the 40-man the Twins are willing to cut loose (and they haven't even touched perhaps the most likely drop candidate, the uber-blocked, struggling, and nearly out of options Vargas).

[Mr. Brooks]

Beyond that, he was only up because he was a warm body and on the 40-man roster. The same has been true about Polanco all along. It's unfortunate to be in that bind, but would you prefer that, or guys like Beresford and Mastroianni being added? It's a versatile 25-man roster, and I do believe for now that Nunez should be playing regularly. So that means not a lot of playing time for Polanco -- who incidentally has not played ANY shortstop all year. Could be telling....

Why does Nunez need to play regularly?

Sure, he's playing well, but we are 8-26 and know what we have in him.

Yes, I would prefer Mastroianni or Beresford rot on the bench, how is that even a question?

We have a half dozen guys who can come off the 40 man.

Polanco and Kepler need to play every single game, I don't care where.

[Mr. Brooks]

 

 

I don't see what trading Polanco does for you. He can't have much value not playing at all. If you want to trade an infielder it has to be Plouffe or Dozier. I like them both and would hate to see them go, but they have some value. Would trading Dozier get you a good C or SP prospect close to the majors? I guess I don't know...

 

 

I would prefer to keep Polanco too, but I guess the argument for trading him is that if he can't get in the lineup on an 8-26 team with its starting SS on the DL, when will be ever??

[Brandon Warne]

Why does Nunez need to play regularly?

Sure, he's playing well, but we are 8-26 and know what we have in him.

Yes, I would prefer Mastroianni or Beresford rot on the bench, how is that even a question?

We have a half dozen guys who can come off the 40 man.

Polanco and Kepler need to play every single game, I don't care where.

 

 

Because he's been playing well. You can't just fold up shop and decide to stop trying to win. Beyond that, he's got obvious trade value between now and the offseason, where I'm certain they'll move him.

[DJSim22]

 

I would prefer to keep Polanco too, but I guess the argument for trading him is that if he can't get in the lineup on an 8-26 team with its starting SS on the DL, when will be ever??

 

Fair enough, but then want value does he even have and why not put him in AAA to hopefully build some value? 

[Mr. Brooks]

Because he's been playing well. You can't just fold up shop and decide to stop trying to win. Beyond that, he's got obvious trade value between now and the offseason, where I'm certain they'll move him.

You shouldn't transition to development over results in a losing season?

I know that the two times in my lifetime that the Twins finally crawled out of oblivion, they did so both times by finally acknowledging it was time to hand it over to the kids and suffer through the growing pains that go with it.

 

He can maintain his trade value by playing 3 to 4 times per week.

I think most teams around the league have probably made their evaluation of him, and a few good weeks of high babip SSS play isn't going to change that.

 

Lastly, you have a very high confidence in a front office that, frankly, doesn't deserve it.

When was the last time this FO sold high on a player?

 

If you want to trade him, it should be now, while his numbers are unsustainably high.

What will they get for him in the off-season, after he's regressed to the mean?

Mediocre bat, awful glove utility players aren't highly sought after commodities in December.

Edited May 14, 2016 by Mr. Brooks

[Blake]

 

Great article...which I stated in the original blog posting...and some great points made here.

 

I also agree Arcia should be kept. I also like Rosario going down for a while. It's best for he and the Twins both in the long run.

 

Dozier has been hitting better. Dozier is a really nice ballplayer despite some streaky-ness. (there have been endless debates here on TD about how pronounced his split seasons have truly been-don't need to rehash) And I don't know that trading Dozier is part of the solution. But then again, if he could bring in, or help bring in, a ballplayer of value, and with Polanco's potential, I could see doing it.

 

What stinks is, despite some losing and disappointing seasons, despite this horrific start to this season, we really need patience right now. We need patience for Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Meyer, Chargois, etc to get some more time in. I like July 1st as a good target date for promotions.

 

However, the FO has to eat some money, toss in a lower level prospect or two, but do what is necessary to create the roster openings for these youngsters. 

Yeah, I think the FO needs to eat some money. I don't see any way around it. Right now, I think it's a toss-up between Hughes and Nolasco, but leaning Hughes.

[Brandon Warne]

 

You shouldn't transition to development over results in a losing season?
I know that the two times in my lifetime that the Twins finally crawled out of oblivion, they did so both times by finally acknowledging it was time to hand it over to the kids and suffer through the growing pains that go with it.

He can maintain his trade value by playing 3 to 4 times per week.
I think most teams around the league have probably made their evaluation of him, and a few good weeks of high babip SSS play isn't going to change that.

Lastly, you have a very high confidence in a front office that, frankly, doesn't deserve it.
When was the last time this FO sold high on a player?

 

Well, Aaron Hicks. Just didn't pan out on the other end. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, Aaron Hicks. Just didn't pan out on the other end.

It's to soon to say if they sold high on Hicks, I'm not convinced we've seen the best of him yet.

[Mr. Brooks]

Nunez won't have much value in the off season.

Meanwhile, Polanco could be a starting caliber player.

This is his last option year.

I'd prefer we go into the off season with a decent sized sample of what he can do at the mlb level so we can plan our 25 man roster accordingly.

[Thrylos]

I agree with most of those moves, but they are hardly a "fix".  The Twins are not 5 players away from getting "fixed".   They need some drastic moves, like:

 

a. Hiring someone from the outside above Ryan to assess the situation in the Front Office and Management

b. Fire Brunansky right away.  The K% before and after and for 3+ seasons is enough data.  Bring up Jake Mauer as the hitting coach (he knew as a player how to take a few walks.)

c. Fire Vavra right away and replace him with Mientkiewicz.  Not only getting rid of the loser Karma from the Gardy years taint, you get Molitor's potential successor up there to light bit of a fire under him.

 

I am all for bringing up young players, but you got to start them in the right positions.  To do that, you need to trade both Dozier and Plouffe and get Sano and Polanco in their spots (with Polanco sliding at SS and Escobar/Nunez playing at 2B)  This will get an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Arcia.  Not bad.

 

Got to get rid of some pitchers and fix the pen.  That pen is hideous.  Hughes in the pen will be an improvement.  Hopefully Dozier and Plouffe will bring someone(s) serviceable there.

 

Trading Arcia, the single MLB-ready serious power thread from the left side in the organization, before replacing him internally (Palka) or externally is inane.

 

[DocBauer]

I agree with most of those moves, but they are hardly a "fix".  The Twins are not 5 players away from getting "fixed".   They need some drastic moves, like:

 

a. Hiring someone from the outside above Ryan to assess the situation in the Front Office and Management

b. Fire Brunansky right away.  The K% before and after and for 3+ seasons is enough data.  Bring up Jake Mauer as the hitting coach (he knew as a player how to take a few walks.)

c. Fire Vavra right away and replace him with Mientkiewicz.  Not only getting rid of the loser Karma from the Gardy years taint, you get Molitor's potential successor up there to light bit of a fire under him.

 

I am all for bringing up young players, but you got to start them in the right positions.  To do that, you need to trade both Dozier and Plouffe and get Sano and Polanco in their spots (with Polanco sliding at SS and Escobar/Nunez playing at 2B)  This will get an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Arcia.  Not bad.

 

Got to get rid of some pitchers and fix the pen.  That pen is hideous.  Hughes in the pen will be an improvement.  Hopefully Dozier and Plouffe will bring someone(s) serviceable there.

 

Trading Arcia, the single MLB-ready serious power thread from the left side in the organization, before replacing him internally (Palka) or externally is inane.

 

Yes to trading Plouffe. I'm still not certain on Dozier, but I've been warming to it. The problem with your middle infield is were still not sure what we have in Polanco. I really like his potential, he needs to play, and he should be playing. If he could actually play SS, that would be great. Further, if he moves to 2B, we still have Escobar and Nunez for SS and utility, (also Santana to fit in here and there) I'm just nervous about trading Dozier until we actually get to see more of Polanco at the ML level.

 

If Ryan doesn't retire, or get "urged" to retire, I like the idea of a baseball executive above him to oversee things. Which is why I wouldn't fire any coaches right away. Let this overseer make those decisions.

 

But I'm not sure I see this happening. I think it would be more likely the Twins ownership would dismiss TR, or urge his stepping down, rather than place someone above him.

[Craig Arko]

Just outscore the other guys. Worked perfectly today.

[tobi0040]

This was a really good article.  I completely agree with moves #1 and #5.  Here is a blue print for me, with a little longer horizon.  I am looking at the pieces right now and thinking about the next good team.

 

Lineup – I think generally our lineup has the pieces for the most part.  Sano, Park, and Mauer are pretty good pieces.  Between Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Gordon, etc. I think some will emerge and become core guys.  The biggest issue is the catcher position.  We have no organizational talent at the positon and improving here help drive change.

 

Rotation -  Right now our rotation is a pretty long ways off. In the current rotation, I think Berrios is a fixture and Santana could be a #4 or #5 on a good team.  I am less confident on the rest of these guys.  Gibson and Duffey could be back of the rotation guys, but we need 1-2’s, not more 4-5’s.

 

Pen - I am not overly worried about the Twins pen 12-24 months down the road.  I think 2-3 young guys will emerge and you add a good player each off-season and you are in business.

 

Moves:

 

Move #1 – This is by far the most important move of all.  Immediately fire Terry Ryan and conduct a search for an external GM.  I would look for talent from the A’s, Cards, Rays, Cubs, Red Sox, and Giants for starters.  I am confident the #2 guy I these front offices would be a dramatic upgrade over what we have.  I get the reason for not doing this mid-season and I think that has merit. But to be blunt, I don’t want the current crew deciding who to keep and trade, I don’t trust them to have a plan and execute it, or to push veterans out of the way.  That would also give the new GM four months to work along-side the rest of the Twins front office and get comfortable with the organization assets and liabilities (both players and FO).  The franchise is outgunned right now by the rest of the league. Like a poorly run company, low hanging fruit is ready to be picked. I firmly believe upgrading here is worth at least five wins a year.

 

Move #2 - My trading assets are Dozier, Plouffe, Gibson, and prospects.  I would target starting pitchers and catchers. Maybe you hold off a bit for Dozier to turn it around at the plate and build up his value.   But Dozier and Plouffe’s age combined with the talent around (Sano to 3B and Polanco to 2B), it seems like it would make a ton of sense to me.

 

Move #3 - Shift May and Meyer to the rotation.  It has been beat to death, I get it.  But we need to give these guys an extended shot at the starting rotation.  We are likely not going to be good in the next 18 months, so why not do this and move them to the pen if it fails?  On our 25 man right now, the only guys who have similar raw stuff are Berrios and Santana (on a good day). We need to see if one or both of these could be top of the rotation arms. If one turns out to be, the additional 130 innings a year will go a long way in righting the ship for the long haul.  The corresponding moves are Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco to the pen.  I think both of these guys could actually be good relievers and it is 100% clear to me that Hughes needs to get his velo back or the next 3-4 years are not going to be good.  I think moving him to the pen is the only way to achieve that.

[owenowain]

The article doesn't address the biggest problem - pitching. Moving some positional players around doesn't fix poor starting and finishing pitching. 

[ScrapTheNickname]

Trade Nunez while he's hot. He's old and in the way. I like how he's playing now, which means it's time for him to go to a contender. For a few AAA batteries. It's something.

[Platoon]

They can strengthen the lower minors. There are never enough starting pitchers or up the middle players. Plouffe, Dozier and Jepsen should merit a return of something that bolsters the depth in the lower minors. Maybe they get a return of a failed starting pitcher or catcher like the Cubs received in Arrieta. It would be a lottery ticket but they occasionally pay off though very rarely like Arrieta paid off.

Most of the rest are aging players performing well below their contract. The best value they get there is someone taking the contract.

And clearing space.