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Article: How To Fix These Twins


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With the Twins having 33 games under their belt, the club has won just eight contests. They've been swept in a series seven times thus far, and the reality of the situation has gone from dire to laughable. While I don't contend that either Paul Molitor or Terry Ryan are the best for the organization going forward, a change there doesn't handle the immediate issues. So, how do you fix the Twins?In an attempt to salvage what can be salvaged of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later.

 

Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario

 

I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question of why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable.

 

Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad-ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy who hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now, compounding the problem, Rosario has posted a negative defensive runs saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield.

 

He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears.

 

Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him

 

Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day.

 

Arcia is always going to struggle against lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well.

 

You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense.

 

Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler

 

It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be so poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that.

 

Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rate is reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano.

 

In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time.

 

Note that this is ove three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June.

 

Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco

 

This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level.

 

Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster.

 

It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity.

 

Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer

 

This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like a shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded the problem is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan.

 

Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent).

 

Along with Meyer, flame-throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester.

 

For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club.

 

At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (save Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

 

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I agree with most of this. The mismanagement of Kepler and Polanco have irked me more than anything else this season. Meyer's situation is right up there as well. I just don't see TR using the Arcia's and Polanco's of the world as currency like this. It's unfortunate because they don't seem to have a spot in the future.

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I wouldn't trade Arcia (not yet at least), nor would I promote Buxton and Kepler at this point.  Buxton is turning a corner and personally I'd like him to reinforce those better habits he's learning in AAA.  Kepler isn't doing well there at all. 

 

Polanco is an odd situation.  He should be playing every day, why he's not up here I'm not sure.  As bad as the OF defense has been, I don't even understand why he cannot get the occasional OF start.  He cannot possibly be worse than Sano out there, but yeah, if they aren't going to play him, demote him or trade him.  The real problem with Polanco is that this is his last option year.  They need to figure out if he can stick at the ML level.

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I like all these moves and look forward to them.  I wonder if that will be enough though - this team seems to have a losing mentality.  I am not sure how to fix that - maybe bringing up some more young guys will help.    If we score runs the starting pitcher doesn't come back with a shutdown inning, if we have great scoring opportunities we seem to invariably strike out with runners in scoring position, we give the bullpen a lead and they blow it.  At first I thought it was just "bad luck" and it would turn our way but it continues to happen more than chance.  Whatever it takes it looks like we expect to lose.  Seems like we need a change in personality, if not from the manager, then a veteran leader  We can call it the "Hunter" effect but the '87 team had Dan Gladden, the '91 had Jack Morris.

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Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level.

 

I don't agree with the way the Twins have called up Polanco only to sit on the bench, but he's not out of options next year because of it. I'm pretty sure he's out of options because they had to add him to the 40 man roster heading into 2014, so they then had to use options to keep him in the minors. The only reason he was called up in 2014 is because he was already on the 40 man roster (but his option had already been used that year).

 

That being said, they need to play him or as you suggest trade him. I'd prefer they keep him and play him because he better balances the lineup with his higher contact and OB skills. He profiles better at the top of the lineup than Dozier.

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Polanco made the 40 man due to rule V rules.  But yeah, he needs to play this year as he has to have a roster spot next year.  Given that the season is for all intents and purposes over, I don't see why he's not getting more playing time.  There's no reason why Molitor cannot find PT for four guys at 2nd, 3rd, and SS.

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That being said, they need to play him or as you suggest trade him. I'd prefer they keep him and play him because he better balances the lineup with his higher contact and OB skills. He profiles better at the top of the lineup than Dozier.

Assuming that he's able to adjust to the majors as so many of our prospects lately haven't been able to.

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Assuming that he's able to adjust to the majors as so many of our prospects lately haven't been able to.

Yep, which is why he needs to be playing. I'd like to think he'll have an easier time adjusting because he's a different kind of hitter than the other prospects that have come up. But of course that's no guarantee.

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The miss management of Kepler, Polanco, and Meyer have been big and inexcusable issues. Reminds me of Gardy....if not worse. I'd trade Dozier far before Polanco. We obviously have no idea how Polanco can play in the Majors but Dozier has 2 good half seasons. And has struggled this far into the year regardless of how he plays going forward. No reason why Polanco can't get more playing time other than they don't wanna hurt someone's feelings.

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Not sure this will "fix" the Twins in the short-run, but I think I agree these moves will help maximize the Twins chances for 2017. The only caveat is that I would trade Plouffe instead of Arcia, and keep the latter around for now, with the possibility of trading him next offseason.

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I'm in agreement on Rosario being sent down. Because of his strong debut for a rookie in 2015, he deserved an opportunity to start this season with every opportunity with the job despite the swing and miss tendencies. He got that for three weeks and then Arcia took off. I still believe enough in Rosario that I think sending him down makes sense. Have to try to get him going. 

 

Arcia should be starting against right-handers and get days off against lefties. That can help increase his number. If he's traded, cool. If not and he's good, keep him. He's cheap yet.

 

Buxton and Kepler... Buxton's been good for almost two weeks but as others have said, I'd like to see him stay down there for another month. Let those adjustments kick in and become natural. I just don't want to see him back up and down. Kepler's been doing really well for maybe 4-5 games, raising his average from about .175 to almost .270 in that stretch, but it's the same thing. Let him succeed down there and learn a few more things.

 

I wouldn't trade Jorge Polanco right now, unless you got something very good in return. Maybe later in the season.

 

Alex Meyer was shut down after a bullpen session after his demotion was stopped due to shoulder fatigue, so obviously he's not worth bringing up right now... Maybe - like Kepler and Buxton - in a month. I just would keep him starting because of his upside and potential. Chargois was great through 5 games this year, but he's been very pedestrian since, and again, too much upside to throw to the wolves during this debacle. 

 

I know people hate seeing guys like Mastroianni and Kintzler and the like getting playing time, but it's probably better long-term for them to take some lumps when things are going so poorly than the guys you plan to build with. 

 

What I might do? Send down Rosario, play an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in Rochester for the next month. And then at that time, assuming they're all doing fine and not completely lost, call them all up together and turn it over. Until then, deal with the Santana/Arcia/Mastro outfield and let Sano keep working out there. 

 

By mid-June, if there isn't like a 20-4 stretch about to start (gotta have just a little optimism!), start dealing. I don't know that anyone over the age of 27 would be off the market with the exception of Park. Obviously Mauer has the no-trade clause too. Obviously Plouffe would unfortunately be at the top of the list, allowing Sano to move back to 3B and Kepler to take RF. Have to keep throwing Jepsen out there, hoping he shows some signs so that they can deal him. Maybe they can turn minor league signings like Abad and Kintzler into C prospects. I'm not even going to say Dozier would be off limits. Maybe Nunez has some value during this hot streak. Could a team want a proven catcher to be a backup down the stretch. Can they get anything for Hughes or Nolasco?

 

By about July 1st, I think this team should just be turned over to the youth. At that time, I'd like to see:

 

C: Murphy/Centeno, 1B: Mauer, 2B: Polanco (if not Dozier), SS: Escobar, 3B: Sano, LF: Rosario/Arcia, CF: Buxton, RF: Kepler, DH: Park

 

SP: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, Meyer

BP: May, Pressly, Tonkin, Dean, O'Rourke, Chargois, etc.

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What kind of returns are you hoping to get for Hughes, Nolasco, Dozier, Plouffe, & Suziki? Send all 5 of them to San Diego for Fernando Rodney? I think Dozier is the only one with no California ties. 

 

Yeah... This is a really good question. 

 

It's seems like such an obvious thing for most teams to do in our situation but what do you get in return?

 

We don't need more youth. We already got piles and piles of youth that is starting get wasted because it is spilling on the ground.  

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Why would you deal Arcia for pennies on the dollar?  This is the team this team needs to roll with by Aug 1:

 

Kepler LF

Polanco SS

Mauer 1B

Sano 3B

Park DH

Arcia RF

2B Dozier

C Murphy (or player traded for)

CF Buxton

 

The guys that need to move are Plouffe and at least two of the starters.  Arcia should not be on that list.  The guy just turned 25 and is figuring it out.

 

Rosario will hvae to earn some time back, but ideally our 4th OF in this situation is a right-handed stick.

Edited by TheLeviathan
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Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Meyer need a long stretch of success. Meyer's 3 or 4 starts wasn't near enough. Two months might be the floor on long enough. That takes them to about the the all star break.

 

The Twins should trade Dozier and Plouffe if they can get a return with some value. They don't need a return for the trio aging long term contracts filling the bottom of their rotation. They made a mistake a few years ago when the Orioles claimed Willingham. The Twins should have let him go instead of insisting on a marginal prospect in return. If they give the Orioles the contract, they look for a solution in the winter. If any of Hughes, Santana or Nolasco is claimed they need to give serious consideration to letting them go for salary relief and no return in players. If those three are on the 40 this winter, they won't look for other solutions.

 

This year can't be fixed. They can stop bouncing around their best assets. If sent to AAA to develop, they must be allowed time to develop. Next year is going to look a lot better if several of Rosario, Santana, Buxton, Kepler, Arcia, Murphy, Polanco, Chargois, Meyer, Burdi, Duffey and Berrios put together solid second halfs. That is the fix we can hope for.

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I'm in agreement on Rosario being sent down. Because of his strong debut for a rookie in 2015, he deserved an opportunity to start this season with every opportunity with the job despite the swing and miss tendencies. He got that for three weeks and then Arcia took off. I still believe enough in Rosario that I think sending him down makes sense. Have to try to get him going. 

 

Arcia should be starting against right-handers and get days off against lefties. That can help increase his number. If he's traded, cool. If not and he's good, keep him. He's cheap yet.

 

Buxton and Kepler... Buxton's been good for almost two weeks but as others have said, I'd like to see him stay down there for another month. Let those adjustments kick in and become natural. I just don't want to see him back up and down. Kepler's been doing really well for maybe 4-5 games, raising his average from about .175 to almost .270 in that stretch, but it's the same thing. Let him succeed down there and learn a few more things.

 

I wouldn't trade Jorge Polanco right now, unless you got something very good in return. Maybe later in the season.

 

Alex Meyer was shut down after a bullpen session after his demotion was stopped due to shoulder fatigue, so obviously he's not worth bringing up right now... Maybe - like Kepler and Buxton - in a month. I just would keep him starting because of his upside and potential. Chargois was great through 5 games this year, but he's been very pedestrian since, and again, too much upside to throw to the wolves during this debacle. 

 

I know people hate seeing guys like Mastroianni and Kintzler and the like getting playing time, but it's probably better long-term for them to take some lumps when things are going so poorly than the guys you plan to build with. 

 

What I might do? Send down Rosario, play an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler in Rochester for the next month. And then at that time, assuming they're all doing fine and not completely lost, call them all up together and turn it over. Until then, deal with the Santana/Arcia/Mastro outfield and let Sano keep working out there. 

 

By mid-June, if there isn't like a 20-4 stretch about to start (gotta have just a little optimism!), start dealing. I don't know that anyone over the age of 27 would be off the market with the exception of Park. Obviously Mauer has the no-trade clause too. Obviously Plouffe would unfortunately be at the top of the list, allowing Sano to move back to 3B and Kepler to take RF. Have to keep throwing Jepsen out there, hoping he shows some signs so that they can deal him. Maybe they can turn minor league signings like Abad and Kintzler into C prospects. I'm not even going to say Dozier would be off limits. Maybe Nunez has some value during this hot streak. Could a team want a proven catcher to be a backup down the stretch. Can they get anything for Hughes or Nolasco?

 

By about July 1st, I think this team should just be turned over to the youth. At that time, I'd like to see:

 

C: Murphy/Centeno, 1B: Mauer, 2B: Polanco (if not Dozier), SS: Escobar, 3B: Sano, LF: Rosario/Arcia, CF: Buxton, RF: Kepler, DH: Park

 

SP: Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Duffey, Meyer

BP: May, Pressly, Tonkin, Dean, O'Rourke, Chargois, etc.

I love all of this. In the mean time I would consider firing Molly. It appears from the outside like he and Ryan are not on the same page (Meyer, Polanco, Kepler fiascos) Offer Dougie baseball the interim slot and the right to move some pieces around. If he can get significant improvement from the pieces, you have the future manager, if not, you look outside the organization this off season.

 

I would also consider Gibson for a trade and I still like May as a starter. If Hughes is still around, he's in the bullpen unless he had an incredible turn around himself.

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I would seriously be satisfied with one simple move for the time being: 

 

I'd be satisfied if Terry Ryan flew to Cleveland today... Sat down with him in a formal setting and looked him in the eye and said: 

 

"Paul... I need the future to become a larger consideration in your decision making. Do you have any questions"?

 

That will satisfy me right now

 

 

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Yeah... This is a really good question. 

 

It's seems like such an obvious thing for most teams to do in our situation but what do you get in return?

 

We don't need more youth. We already got piles and piles of youth that is starting get wasted because it is spilling on the ground.

 

They can strengthen the lower minors. There are never enough starting pitchers or up the middle players. Plouffe, Dozier and Jepsen should merit a return of something that bolsters the depth in the lower minors. Maybe they get a return of a failed starting pitcher or catcher like the Cubs received in Arrieta. It would be a lottery ticket but they occasionally pay off though very rarely like Arrieta paid off.

 

Most of the rest are aging players performing well below their contract. The best value they get there is someone taking the contract.

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Great article...which I stated in the original blog posting...and some great points made here.

 

I also agree Arcia should be kept. I also like Rosario going down for a while. It's best for he and the Twins both in the long run.

 

Dozier has been hitting better. Dozier is a really nice ballplayer despite some streaky-ness. (there have been endless debates here on TD about how pronounced his split seasons have truly been-don't need to rehash) And I don't know that trading Dozier is part of the solution. But then again, if he could bring in, or help bring in, a ballplayer of value, and with Polanco's potential, I could see doing it.

 

What stinks is, despite some losing and disappointing seasons, despite this horrific start to this season, we really need patience right now. We need patience for Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Meyer, Chargois, etc to get some more time in. I like July 1st as a good target date for promotions.

 

However, the FO has to eat some money, toss in a lower level prospect or two, but do what is necessary to create the roster openings for these youngsters. 

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What kind of returns are you hoping to get for Hughes, Nolasco, Dozier, Plouffe, & Suziki? Send all 5 of them to San Diego for Fernando Rodney? I think Dozier is the only one with no California ties. 

The value of what we have to sell is yet to be determined based on their individual productions, as well as other team's needs or unforseen urgencies.

 

But I would think a decent catching prospect, or possibly even a solid veteran bench catcher to supplant Suzuki wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. Especially if he can hit from the left side.

 

Nothing wrong with another quality bullpen arm that is proven or a strong up and comer. Again, especially if he throws from the left side.

 

Why not just a good, solid, all around spare part OF that hits righty to help the bench?

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They can strengthen the lower minors. There are never enough starting pitchers or up the middle players. Plouffe, Dozier and Jepsen should merit a return of something that bolsters the depth in the lower minors. Maybe they get a return of a failed starting pitcher or catcher like the Cubs received in Arrieta. It would be a lottery ticket but they occasionally pay off though very rarely like Arrieta paid off.

Most of the rest are aging players performing well below their contract. The best value they get there is someone taking the contract.

I agree with the sentiment, but when have we ever taken a failed staring pitcher and made something out of him by tweaking his delivery or teaching him a new pitch?  That one time with Carl Pavano?  The year when Phil Hughes was magically throwing 94?  

 

I say don't trade anyone if it's the same guy making the trades.

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I agree that Rosario should be sent down. 

 

I can't think of another player in baseball who swings at as many pitches out of the zone as he does. He needs to work on that.

 

However... Seriously...  Something has to give here. 

 

You send down Rosario... You have to call someone up. 

 

Who comes up? Right now the 40 man has players that also need things to work on just like Rosario needs. 

 

 

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I agree that Rosario should be sent down.

 

I can't think of another player in baseball who swings at as many pitches out of the zone as he does. He needs to work on that.

 

However... Seriously... Something has to give here.

 

You send down Rosario... You have to call someone up.

 

Who comes up? Right now the 40 man has players that also need things to work on just like Rosario needs.

Well the problem is, we don't know what, if any things Kepler needs to work on, since Mollie refused to play him when he was here.

He's been very unlucky at AAA this year, he's hitting much better than the numbers suggest.

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Well the problem is, we don't know what, if any things Kepler needs to work on, since Mollie refused to play him when he was here.
He's been very unlucky at AAA this year, he's hitting much better than the numbers suggest.

 

If it's Kepler... Molitor is going to have to change his mindset more than a few Degrees. 

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Have to chuckle at the desire to see Murphy promoted as part of the youth movement. He's still hitting well below .200 at AAA right now and was terrible both offensively and defensively when he was up. I understand the catching situation is a joke, but penciling in Murphy as the everyday catcher towards the end of the season seems like a reach to me. 

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Have to chuckle at the desire to see Murphy promoted as part of the youth movement. He's still hitting well below .200 at AAA right now and was terrible both offensively and defensively when he was up. I understand the catching situation is a joke, but penciling in Murphy as the everyday catcher towards the end of the season seems like a reach to me.

It depends on what your objective for the rest of the season is.

 

If you still think we can make the playoffs, then sure, Murphy should stay down.

 

Personally, I think they have no chance to compete this year.

So, stats really mean nothing from here on out.

Give as much playing time to the youngsters.

We need to start the process of finding out who can sink, and who can swim. There are things you just can't learn about a guy at AAA.

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I was thrilled to see Alex Meyer start the season well, but in reality wasn't it like 3 games only 2 of which were starts?  Hardly enough to call him fixed.  After watching that one start he did get with the Twins I'm not too convinced.  His mechanics looked terrible.  He recoiled with every pitch and his arm slot looked so low it just looked awkward.  I'd park him in AAA for most of the year and try to work with him on mechanics and secondary pitches.  

 

Really other than the Midwest League Buxton has never really torn it up anyplace since.  His numbers were decent, but he never dominated.  People like to point out stretches, but they are usually no longer than a month.  I'd like to see him in Rochester at least until the All-Star Break and make him dominate AAA.  Kepler never was given a chance to see if he could play this season, but same thing for him.  Give him a couple months and force their hand by dominating AAA.

 

At some point this season try to fix this roster mess.  As much as I like him, move Trevor Plouffe for whatever you can get so Sano can move to 3rd.  Trade Nolasco for whatever amount of his contract another team is willing to take and eat the rest or move Hughes to the bullpen.  Either way Duffy and Berrios need to start.  

 

Arcia needs to play everyday to see what they have with him.  I'm impressed with how much he's improved at the plate.  If Rosario isn't sent to AAA he should be starting in CF until Buxton is back.  Santana should be back in the utility roll.  Trade either Dozier or Polanco, they both can't start at 2B.  What they've done with Polanco has been a waste so far.  

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