Article: Line Of Succession

[tobi0040]

 

 it's hard to envision them going outside,

 

This is the part of the article that had me completely lost.  Why on earth would it be hard for the Twins to go outside their circle for a hire?  Clearly, the team in place is not getting it done.  It could not be any more clear.

[Seth Stohs]

 

This is the part of the article that had me completely lost.  Why on earth would it be hard for the Twins to go outside their circle for a hire?  Clearly, the team in place is not getting it done.  It could not be any more clear.

 

I don't think anyone is saying that it "would be hard" to go outside the organization to find someone. It's just not in the Pohlad's nature, it appears. 

 

Obviously none of us know what is going to happen, if anything. 

[brvama]

This is the part of the article that had me completely lost.  Why on earth would it be hard for the Twins to go outside their circle for a hire?  Clearly, the team in place is not getting it done.  It could not be any more clear.

 

Why? It's called culture and the comfort of familiarity.

[tobi0040]

Why? It's called culture and the comfort of familiarity.

I get why it is more difficult to rock the boat. But this should be so obvious. This is why second generation businesses fail. You take someone who started from nothing and build a net worth of a few billion dollars, they would make the right call here without hesitation.

 

I just hope the current group cashes out.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

I have a hard time accepting that the best candidate for this job -- by all accounts *the* dream job for hundreds of the best baseball minds across the country -- is currently on the Twins' staff.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Just because they work for someone doesn't mean they would do exactly the same things if they were in charge. Do you think they all just sit in a room and agree completely on everything? 

 

Right. If one listens, they can pick up on things. Mike Radcliffe made some comments (can't remember which podcast) that gave the impression he felt moving Sano to right field was terrible judgment. Ryan was asked to justify giving Nolasco the rotation spot instead of Duffey, and Ryan said there was a big debate, there was a 5-5 split, but ultimately the decision was up to him. Those are two recent examples I can think of. There was the Pelfrey-May thing last year. But I can't get behind Antony. Spring training 2014 was a debacle and the media gave the impression Antony was in charge. Antony seemed too eager about the David Murphy signing and the "veteran presence" he would add. (And Berrios would still be in the minors).

 

I don't want this thing blown up (yet), I just want them to start making good decisions.

[clutterheart]

I had a choice as young kid.

I could've been a Twins fan, Brewers fan, White Sox fan or a Cardinals Fan.  

 

I choose the Twins because they were winners.  2 World series a great GM and a great young manager.

 

Now....I am stuck with it.

Damn it

[tobi0040]

[quote name="Hosken Bombo Disco" post="478640" timestamp=

 

I don't want this thing blown up (yet), I just want them to start making good decisions.

 

Good quote. I don't want to see Sano, Buxton, or Berrios traded. But the silly decisions need to stop. I won't name them because they have all been beaten to death. And they aren't a hindsight thing, almost every one was predicted by 90 percent of posters on this site.

[goulik]

I made the statement a few years ago:

Losing team, get better players

Still losing, get better Manager

Still losing change GM.

We have followed this path. This was my line of thinking in defending Ryan previously and Last year the club seemed to be coming together so I advocated giving Ryan another year. At this point, I'm ready to see Ryan step aside and really hope the club is looking at filling that role now to be hired at the end of the season. Someone on a separate thread discussed why it's not the right time to change GM in the middle of the season and I remember being convinced they were right but now I forget Why I was convinced.

 

Maybe now is a good time to change and audition one of the internal guys (Like Torch got with the wild) give him the job of firing Molly and appointing an interim Manager, see how he handles the draft, international signings, and trade deadline and if he sucks at it, quickly swoop in and hire that outside guy you have been secretly watching for 4-5 months when the season ends. He can hire the new permanent manager.

 

I don't get fed up with what's going on easily. It's baseball and baseball takes patience, but Mollie is failing us and TR hired him. That is on him. I'm ready to move on.

[DaveW]

I will be very dissapointed if they go in house to replace Terry Ryan. While the GM is certainly the fall guy, we shouldn't be so quick to let Antony, Goin and crew off the hook as well for the Twins overall failures over the past 5 or so seasons. (Note: Over the past 5 seasons the Twins have the 2nd worst record overall in the MLB, I don't know how anyone can say with a straight face that those results indicate anything else other than failure)

 

Other than the Park signing and the Jepsen trade can anyone point to any "good" moves this team has made at the major league level over the past several years? For all the talk of how the Twins are super into analytics etc can anyone point to any proof of this in any of their signings? Why is Casey Fien being signed as the sole "savoir" of the bullpen prior to this season? Why did they think putting Sano in RF was anything but a terrible idea? Why did they think that giving Milone a rotation spot over Duffey was a great idea? Why did they think they needed to extend Hughes after what was clearly a career season that wasn't in line with his career numbers at all? Why did they think they needed to extend Suzuki at his absolute high point when everything pointed to regression to the mean? Why do they refuse to spend money on bullpen arms, when bullpens are becoming more and more important each year?

 

Now perhaps Goin, Antony etc have completely different opinions on all of these moves and TR is just shooting them down 99 times out of a 100, but I wouldn't bet on that. The whole front office has been together far too long and are stuck in their ways far too much, the minute they went to a guy with a bit of a different approach (Bill Smith) they gave him next to zero rope and replaced him quickly (back to the old regime)

 

Again, over the last 5 years the Twins have the 2nd worst overall record in baseball, they have the 2nd worst record in MLB this year. This org is sorely in need of new blood, not only for the GM role, but for some of the other leadership roles in the front office as well. The front office has failed, it's time for them to be held accountable.

 

 

[markos]

 

If "stay the course" is the goal, then there is no point in making ANY change. Just stay the course, because no change in philosophy or execution is necessary.

Personally, I hope if there is a change, the new guy tries to win sooner than later.

I obviously didn't make myself clear. I'm not advocating to "stay the course" (and frankly I have no idea why you decided you needed to quote a phrase that I never used in my comment). I think this organization absolutely needs a change in philosophy AND execution. And I want a new GM to come from outside the organization. And yes, I would prefer to win sooner than later. But I'm not willing to change course just for the sake of change.

 

I would prefer to bring in a new GM that would:
a) methodically clear dreck from the current roster
continue to acquire assets to the minor league system
c) provide playing time to the young players so they can develop at the big league level
d) the team might not be really good until 2018, but set up to continually compete for several years thereafter.

 

I would hate to see a new GM that would:
a) use prospects to dump existing salary
decimate the farm system to trade for good-but-not-great, expensive veteran talent
c) sign free agents during one of the weakest free agent classes in years
d) the team might be okay in 2017 and 2018, but then rebuilding will start anew.

 

Basically, I would prefer the Cubs/Astros model rather than the Padres/Diamondbacks model, and honestly would prefer the current mess with the Twins to what the Padres and Diamondbacks have done over the past 18 months. (You apparently feel differently?) If the Twins promoted internally, I would be disappointed, but I would comfort myself that they didn't hire someone like Dave Stewart. I have certain standards for a GM and don't necessarily trust the Pohlads to meet them. I certainly don't think admitting that is the same as arguing that nothing should change and "stay the course" is the best plan.

[DaveW]

Or, if you want to bring in a "familiar face" but someone with some outside vision, why not bring in Andy McPhail to head up everything?

 

Give him a similar role that he has in Philly, let him hire a GM and the rest of the front office. I would be behind this 100%

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or, if you want to bring in a "familiar face" but someone with some outside vision, why not bring in Andy McPhail to head up everything?

 

Give him a similar role that he has in Philly, let him hire a GM and the rest of the front office. I would be behind this 100%

 

Why is McPhail leaving Philly, right before they turn it all around and he looks like a genius? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Antony has great respect in the industry as a negotiator. He has a high-level of respect from the agents. He has the respect of the scouts and evaluators. 

Antony may have this respect, but he also has a track record -- he assumed his current position of assistant GM way back in 2007.  Given the Twins poor record of high-level decisions since that point, that has to be a big negative point on his candidacy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just because they work for someone doesn't mean they would do exactly the same things if they were in charge. Do you think they all just sit in a room and agree completely on everything?

That is true, but part of being a good GM is knowing who to listen to, when to overrule them, and how to make your opinion known effectively.  Some of the Twins worst highest-profile decisions actually came when Antony arguably had the most power (2007-2011), suggesting that he was partially responsible or at the very least was ineffective at preventing them.

[d-mac]

 

So it looks like the Twins going outside for their next GM is near unanimous. 

 

I worked for Target when the last CEO was fired.  He was fired because sales were slumping, the data breach and his awful response, Canada was a complete debacle, and they were falling behind their competitors in the most important aspect of retailing (driving sales using mobile devices).   The #2 person at the company was in the running for the job.  She was by any metric respected, very smart, in many ways capable . At the same time, they absolutely needed an outsider to come in and offer a fresh perspective and that is what they did.  The Twins need the same.

 

One could make a case that Goin would offer something drastically different than Terry and I think that is true to an extent.  But at the same time we could pluck an external SABR person as well. One from a team that is farther along than the Twins.  That would be the best of both worlds in my opinion.  The other benefit of an outsider is this front office and field team needs some turnover and it is much easier to do that when they are not golfing buddies.

 

This. 1000x this. At this point cleaning house and going outside for new perspective become the best business decision. The good 'ol boys club is so inefficient (i.e., lack of winning relative to the budget) I just don't understand how ownership can justify keeping it intact. Also, have you seen how empty the stadium is? Management's underperformance has to be hurting ownership's profit margin at this point, not to mention they've probably missed out on the era of the mega-huge tv deals other teams have gotten.

 

The Twins are simply not putting a product on the field that consumers want to buy and are doing so at a high cost.

 

Then again, it shouldn't be surprising that Jim Pohlad is a terrible businessman. He just inherited the company from good 'ol pops who made his fortune as a crony capitalist by buying distressed assets during the depression, rent seeking, and later acquiring other existing companies and getting sweet deals from politicians. He didn't create any value by producing or improving upon a good or service that consumers demanded. 

[toosweet64]

Regular listener, less frequent commenter. But even before this post was created, I was left to ponder how and if this terrible, awful, no good season (which is bound to continue this year) could lead to changes. While I'm not optimistic that any changes will actually occur, I have to echo the comments of most people here and restate some facts from the article.

 

Terry Ryan is "old" by baseball standards. The 2nd oldest GM in baseball currently. In my humble opinion, I think the game has changed and Terry has been unwilling to change with it. He only recently brought in an "analytics" person in Goin. Terry Ryan seems to be behind the Dayton Moore's and Epstein's of the baseball world by lightyears. Now we're seeing the same with guys like Cashman in New York. 

 

Thus, a change is indeed need. And I think you need to change the whole system as well. The "Twins Way" doesn't seem to work at all any longer. Prospect development has been very poor despite drafting highly in the 1st round. AAA and AA guys arrive at the big league level and look unprepared with terrible fundamentals in baserunning and decision making. 

 

Where do you start? How about looking at Theo Epstein's second in command? An assistant GM for the Cardinals? Start offering scouts in the Red Sox or Dodgers organization more money to do the same job here. It's time to look for a younger, brighter GM with different philosophical strategies because at this point, it couldn't hurt. 

 

"This organization needs an enema."  -- quote from Jack Nicholson altered to fit this situation.

[DaveW]

 

Why is McPhail leaving Philly, right before they turn it all around and he looks like a genius? 

$$$$$

[tobi0040]

Antony may have this respect, but he also has a track record -- he assumed his current position of assistant GM way back in 2007. Given the Twins poor record of high-level decisions since that point, that has to be a big negative point on his candidacy.

He was hired as a PR intern, then PR assistant, then media relations. Skills that are in no way valuable to a GM. He learned how to scout from Terry Ryan and hoped Terry would stay in his role a long time (not a good sign when you replace that person after a bad run). He scouted amateur players and worked on contract negotiations.

 

Assistant GM from 2007 to present. The core of the winning 2007-2010 teams had been established and this was a well oiled machine.

 

2011 to today has been terrible as you noted. Bad trades. Questionable succession planning at several positions. Rushing prospects in order to save face (Carlos Gomez). A real lack of vision about where the franchise was.

 

I am going to take a pass on this one.

 

http://www.startribune.com/souhan-from-intern-to-vp-antony-still-enjoys-ride-with-twins/241113151/

Edited May 11, 2016 by tobi0040

[brvama]

Markus, I agree. I think outside influence is important to any organization. However, when does one become an insider vs outsider. For example, and I don't know their history with Twins, but have Goin and Stiel been here so long that they can no longer provide a fresher view to the Twins?

[Thrylos]

That's a long line of succession, but as shallow as the Twins' gene pool.

 

Too much inbreeding, something any institution or organization (including baseball teams) are way better without.

[Comrade Bork]

Yes, the rebuilding process will not sit well with the common fan who spends dollars to watch a game and buys the shirts and whatnot. .

At this point I'd be more interested in watching a team in full rebuild mode than watching the current product. Losing is losing is losing. Put the exciting kids on the field.

[USAFChief]

 

I obviously didn't make myself clear. I'm not advocating to "stay the course" (and frankly I have no idea why you decided you needed to quote a phrase that I never used in my comment). I think this organization absolutely needs a change in philosophy AND execution. And I want a new GM to come from outside the organization. And yes, I would prefer to win sooner than later. But I'm not willing to change course just for the sake of change.

 

 ...

My bad, I misunderstood.

 

I'd prefer a combination of the two styles.  The Cubs didn't get where they are by rebuilding solely through the minor leagues, for example.  They brought in some front line external talent as well.

[Thrylos]

 

Markus, I agree. I think outside influence is important to any organization. However, when does one become an insider vs outsider. For example, and I don't know their history with Twins, but have Goin and Stiel been here so long that they can no longer provide a fresher view to the Twins?

 

Goin and Stiel are part of the problem.  Briefly, if they were doing their jobs better:

 

a. the Twins would not re-sign or extend players after seasons that even a teenager that looks at their career records can tell they are outliers  

b. the team with consistent top 10 in the prospect rankings, would have developed better players

 

Plus:

 

c. they are part of the 99+96+96+92+79+???  problem

d. (related) they are tainted by the Twins' losing is ok and no accountability culture.

Edited May 11, 2016 by Thrylos

[brvama]

Goin and Stiel are part of the problem.  Briefly, if they were doing their jobs better:

 

a. the Twins would not re-resign or extend players after seasons that even a teenager that looks at their career records can tell they are outliers  

b. the team with consistent top 10 in the prospect rankings, would have developed better players

 

Plus:

 

c. they are part of the 99+96+96+92+79+???  problem

d. (related) they are tainted by the Twins' losing is ok and no accountability culture.

Thrylos, are you inferring that their should be a wholesale clean out to the FO?

[DaveW]

 

Thrylos, are you inferring that their should be a wholesale clean out to the FO?

He wants everyone gone except for his buddy Glen Perkins

[alarp33]

 

Thrylos, are you inferring that their should be a wholesale clean out to the FO?

 

I think most people are...Why would they keep those guys around Post-Ryan?

[markos]

 

My bad, I misunderstood.

 

I'd prefer a combination of the two styles.  The Cubs didn't get where they are by rebuilding solely through the minor leagues, for example.  They brought in some front line external talent as well.

True. And if done smartly I would support that as well. Importantly, the Cubs have been able to bring in outside talent (of all levels: from elite to role-players; both safe and high-risk) without draining their farm system. Some of that is due to having money to burn, but lots of their moves have been savvy trades that the Twins could easily duplicate.

 

Speaking of the Cubs, if they win the World Series this year I wonder if Jed Hoyer would be interested in being the top dog in another organization instead of playing second-fiddle to Epstein.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The answer to "who's next in line" seems clear to me. From a USA Today article last year: Torii Hunter. "Hunter, you see, wants to be a GM one day. If he retires after this season, he hopes to work in the Twins' front office, learning under Ryan, while also working in TV." A "Twins guy", but not the way they typically roll. Mientkiewicz replaces Molitor. Jones replaces Bruno. Pierzynski replaces Vavra. ESPN shoots a new cover, "The Team That Saved the Twins."

 

Oh good god I could actually see this happening.

 

Thanks for the nightmares buddy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

True. And if done smartly I would support that as well. Importantly, the Cubs have been able to bring in outside talent (of all levels: from elite to role-players; both safe and high-risk) without draining their farm system. Some of that is due to having money to burn, but lots of their moves have been savvy trades that the Twins could easily duplicate.

 

Speaking of the Cubs, if they win the World Series this year I wonder if Jed Hoyer would be interested in being the top dog in another organization instead of playing second-fiddle to Epstein.

 

I think the Cubs are demonstrating how you have to have a really specific plan for what you like and what you don't and build with that.  I think Terry comes from an era where you just assembled assets and tried to fit them as you go.

 

Epstien has brilliantly targeted hitters with high picks and high value trades because he knows that scouting their future impact is generally more reliable.  (Plus they are less likely to have injury issues and longer careers) He's supplemented the pitching staff with buy-low moves and free agent dollars.  

 

That basic framework is so easy to replicate.  Or, hell, do something else smart for all I care - but time for a total change in organizational framework.  Gut the whole front office.