Article: What's Next For Byron Buxton?

[Rosterman]

Santana in center. Mastro called up to play center. Kepler can play center. Looks like we have too many centerfielders. Maybe a BIG TRADE on the horizon for another top pitching prospect!

[jokin]

 

Seriously, do you people even read my posts? Find anything I have said that remotely resembles a statement that Buxton's career is on the brink. I am actually on the record as saying a reasonably attainable upside is Carlos Gomez's career path.

 

I made no reference to your post, and in no way alleged that your post remotely resembled likening Buxton's career as being on the brink.

[jokin]

 

Here is a list of people saying his career is over

 

You've missed a few. We even have threads on Twins Daily that have something to that effect in their title.

 

And then you have these publications:

 

Draft Day Dilemmas: Is Byron Buxton just a bust?

 

Pipeline Inbox: Could Buxton be a bust?

 

Minnesota Twins Byron Buxton: Boom or Bust in 2016?

 

Sports Live: Is Byron Buxton just a bust?

 

The Line Drive: is Byron Buxton just a bust?

 

Minnesota Twins fans: Temper your 2016 Byron Buxton expectations

 

"Draft Day Dilemmas: Is Byron Buxton just a bust?"

 

Byron Buxton / The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 337 – Putridity

 

 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by jokin

[USAFChief]

I guess it depends what your expectations are. If his MLB ops is .870 he's a superstar. I think the best case scenario is a McCutcheon with better defense and slightly less power. McCutcheon had a minor league OPS almost .100 points less than Buxton fwiw. Also, McCutcheon hadn't even reached the majors by the age Buxton is today.

FYI, his ops in low A was .990 so your numbers are a little off.

I hope he ends up with a .870 career MLB OPS. If that's over 15 years, with peaks in the .900s, I agree he's a very good player. I'm not sure that's a superstar, and I don't expect that level of production anyway, but I'd sure be happy to see it.

 

And his A ball OPS is .828. You can chop it up any way you wish, it comes out the same in the end.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I hope he ends up with a .870 career MLB OPS. If that's over 15 years, with peaks in the .900s, I agree he's a very good player. I'm not sure that's a superstar, and I don't expect that level of production anyway, but I'd sure be happy to see it.

 

And his A ball OPS is .828. You can chop it up any way you wish, it comes out the same in the end.

Chief, if you are looking at the career by level section of his B-Ref minor league page, note that they only list the levels there if the player had multiple seasons at the level.

 

So Buxton indeed had a .990 OPS at regular A ball (not high A) that is not reflected in the level breakdown because he only spent part of one season there.

 

That is why his career minor league OPS is still .873 despite only his career AAA OPS being above that figure in the level breakdown area, in a relatively low number of AAA PA. Because that also includes that .990 that doesn't get its own career at level line.

[alarp33]

 

I hope he ends up with a .870 career MLB OPS. If that's over 15 years, with peaks in the .900s, I agree he's a very good player. I'm not sure that's a superstar, and I don't expect that level of production anyway, but I'd sure be happy to see it.

And his A ball OPS is .828. You can chop it up any way you wish, it comes out the same in the end.

 

We're splitting hairs at this point... To go back to McCutchen, his career OPS in the bigs is .880... I would say with 5 All Star games and an MVP in 7 season firmly counts him as a superstar.  

 

It depends who you are comparing him too.  He's a CFer with elite defense and speed, if you want to look at solely OPS, he has a much lower bar then Corner position players.  If he was a 1B I would say .880 doesn't make him a "superstar"

[alarp33]

 

Chief, if you are looking at the career by level section of his B-Ref minor league page, note that they only list the levels there if the player had multiple seasons at the level.

So Buxton indeed had a .990 OPS at regular A ball (not high A) that is not reflected in the level breakdown because he only spent part of one season there.

That is why his career minor league OPS is still .873 despite only his career AAA OPS being above that figure in the level breakdown area, in a relatively low number of AAA PA. Because that also includes that .990 that doesn't get its own career at level line.

 

Right - or if you break it out by year... he had a .334/.424/.520 line in 125 games in low A/High A in 2013 (Pre-concussion I'll point out, since we all seem to agree that messed up Mauer for awhile)

[tobi0040]

 

Right - or if you break it out by year... he had a .334/.424/.520 line in 125 games in low A/High A in 2013 (Pre-concussion I'll point out, since we all seem to agree that messed up Mauer for awhile)

 

GIven how terrible this team has been over the last five years, Buxton was viewed as a savior.  So nobody seems to care he had a concussion, (right before seeing AA, AAA, and big league breaking balls).

Edited May 10, 2016 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

 

You've missed a few. We even have threads on Twins Daily that have something to that effect in their title.

 

And then you have these publications:

 

Draft Day Dilemmas: Is Byron Buxton just a bust?

 

Pipeline Inbox: Could Buxton be a bust?

 

Minnesota Twins Byron Buxton: Boom or Bust in 2016?

 

Sports Live: Is Byron Buxton just a bust?

 

The Line Drive: is Byron Buxton just a bust?

 

Minnesota Twins fans: Temper your 2016 Byron Buxton expectations

 

"Draft Day Dilemmas: Is Byron Buxton just a bust?"

 

Byron Buxton / The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 337 – Putridity

 

Except almost every reply in those threads is how he might not be the superstar we thought, not that he's done for sure. almost every reply, not every reply........

 

I fail to see how having doubts about him being elite = saying his career is over. the strawmen are tiring.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I've got the plan, guys. I'm going to do my best to suppress all memory of "Byron Buxton." Totally wipe him of my hard drive. Then, when he comes back, I'll just be all like, 1) schwing! or 2) dang, not another one of these guys. 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by Pardon My Dinger

[jokin]

 

Except almost every reply in those threads is how he might not be the superstar we thought, not that he's done for sure. almost every reply, not every reply........

 

I fail to see how having doubts about him being elite = saying his career is over. the strawmen are tiring.

 

You're missing the point by a wide margin. The general thinking seems to be that if he's "not the superstar we thought", than therefore, "Buxton is a bust".

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're missing the point by a wide margin. The general thinking seems to be that if he's "not the superstar we thought", than therefore, "Buxton is a bust".

 

I guess it depends on the meaning of the word.........he sure doesn't look all that good compared to the other top 10 players on the boards the last couple years. So, if you are talking relative value, maybe he is. If you are talking absolute value, well, he'll play in the majors for a long time......

[dxpavelka]

 

Schmidt was almost a league average hitter his rookie season, and an above league average defender at 3B. No, ballplayers with that level of performance don't get cut to pump gas.

And if you are reading "firm conclusions" into what Chief or I have posted, you might be misreading us. The only "conclusion" I've drawn is that the start of Buxton's MLB career has been worse than any elite hitter's. Which probably lowers the odds of Buxton becoming an elite hitter.

If Buxton does become an elite hitter, I guarantee it will referenced as one of the great early career turnarounds of all time, and that his special talent and pedigree helped him overcome a disastrous start. Which sort of proves my point about the challenges he is facing.

In what league is a .196 hitter "almost average"?
 

[tobi0040]

 

In what league is a .196 hitter "almost average"?
 

 

MLB in 1973. His OPS was .697.    Joe Morgan had a WAR of 9 with an OPS of .899.

 

Looks like the league averaged an OPS+ of 93.  Schmidt's was 92.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1973-standard-batting.shtml

Edited May 10, 2016 by tobi0040

[dxpavelka]

 

MLB in 1973. His OPS was .697.    Joe Morgan had a WAR of 9 with an OPS of .899.

 

Looks like the league averaged an OPS+ of 93.  Schmidt's was 92.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1973-standard-batting.shtml

Slice .196 any way you want.  Schmidt hit for power and raised his career BA to .267.  Had he not done that he would be remembered as Dave Kingman,

[Otto von Ballpark]

Slice .196 any way you want. Schmidt hit for power and raised his career BA to .267. Had he not done that he would be remembered as Dave Kingman,

And Kingman's stat line supported a 15 year MLB career, not "pumping gas in Altoona in 4 years" as you claimed. That would be more like Buxton's current MLB stat line.

[Ncgo4]

Buxton is going to be a major star. He's a kid who was rushed to face major league pitching after 50 AB's in AAA. He's now starting to hit in AAA and if they have a bit of patience before bringing him back up all will be just fine. Just wish they'd send Sano back down to join him. Then in about 30 days they could bring Sano, Buxton & Kepler back at once.

[Mike Sixel]

Why would you send down Sano? 

[Mr. Brooks]

Sano leads mlb in line drive percentage.

The only thing Sano needs to work on in AAA is his luck.

[tobi0040]

Buck is really turning it around in AAA. 

 

17 games.  .310, .372, .535, .907.  5 doubes.   1 3B, 3 HR, 7 BB,   K rate below 25%.

 

This by no means is a guarantee of MLB success.  But it is about as encouraging as it could possibly be. 

Edited May 12, 2016 by tobi0040

[dxpavelka]

 

And Kingman's stat line supported a 15 year MLB career, not "pumping gas in Altoona in 4 years" as you claimed. That would be more like Buxton's current MLB stat line.

And yet Kingman's pretty much remembered as  a joke of a player who did one thing well.  But you may be right-I may be selling Kingman short.  Especially when I compare his numbers to another current Twin who mostly seems to be able to do one thing reasonably well. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I was curious about Buxton's service time, so I did some searching. The first article I found that had the info was here http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/byron-buxton after his demotion. It said that he has 59 more days of MLB rostering and the Twins would lose another season, if I read right? So, would that mean if we kept him down until August, we'd gain another year? If so, I think this would be wise of them, even if he mashes down at AAA.

 

The Twins are in no way going anywhere this year, so I don't think letting him get past those 59 days would be wise no matter the case. Make him work on his plate discipline and stealing down at AAA, which is a legitimate excuse, until August and then bring him up to bat leadoff...so he gets more at bats and chances to get his timing down.

[tobi0040]

 

I was curious about Buxton's service time, so I did some searching. The first article I found that had the info was here http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/byron-buxton after his demotion. It said that he has 59 more days of MLB rostering and the Twins would lose another season, if I read right? So, would that mean if we kept him down until August, we'd gain another year? If so, I think this would be wise of them, even if he mashes down at AAA.

 

The Twins are in no way going anywhere this year, so I don't think letting him get past those 59 days would be wise no matter the case. Make him work on his plate discipline and stealing down at AAA, which is a legitimate excuse, until August and then bring him up to bat leadoff...so he gets more at bats and chances to get his timing down.

 

I think we should do what is best for his development. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I think we should do what is best for his development. 

Is that not possibly what IS best for his development, and the Twins future? 2+ more months to focus on just hitting and approach, without having to worry about the pressure of the bigs? He'd also still get 2 months of MLB leading off to end the season (if you trusted Molly to bat him there for development.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buck is really turning it around in AAA. 

 

17 games.  .310, .372, .535, .907.  5 doubes.   1 3B, 3 HR, 7 BB,   K rate below 25%.

 

This by no means is a guarantee of MLB success.  But it is about as encouraging as it could possibly be. 

Agreed.  Although it's also pretty much the same line he posted at AA and AAA last year.

 

It's good to see that his rough MLB start hasn't affected his minor league hitting, but it remains to be seen if he's ready to adjust to the bigs.  Hopefully it was just the leg kick messing him up this year -- his MLB numbers last year were bad, but not hopeless.  Getting back to that could be something to build on.

[madebyredheads]

 

I hope he ends up with a .870 career MLB OPS. If that's over 15 years, with peaks in the .900s, I agree he's a very good player. I'm not sure that's a superstar, and I don't expect that level of production anyway, but I'd sure be happy to see it.

And his A ball OPS is .828. You can chop it up any way you wish, it comes out the same in the end.

 

Not sure were or how you're getting your numbers. Minor quibbles mostly, but a pretty big difference between what you stated (.828 OPS) and his actual numbers (.899 OPS) at A ball. Maybe you meant AA?

 

Buxton Career stats

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS by level

 

Rookie (48 G)

.248/.344/.448/.792

25 K% 11.5 BB%

 

A (155 G)

.315/.402/.497/.899

22.6 K% 14 BB%

 

AA (60 G)

.279/.345/.483/.828

22.5 K% 10.8 BB%

 

AAA (30 G) 

.349/.401/.539/.940

23 K%  8.7 BB%

 

MLB (63 G)

.195/.239/.316/.555

39 K%  4.5 BB%

 

EDIT: Added K% and BB%

Edited May 12, 2016 by madebyredheads

[tobi0040]

 

Agreed.  Although it's also pretty much the same line he posted at AA and AAA last year.

 

It's good to see that his rough MLB start hasn't affected his minor league hitting, but it remains to be seen if he's ready to adjust to the bigs.  Hopefully it was just the leg kick messing him up this year -- his MLB numbers last year were bad, but not hopeless.  Getting back to that could be something to build on.

 

Yup  The fear was he pulled an Arcia and never really pulled out of it in AAA (last year).

[HitInAPinch]

Buxton currently has pretty good looking stats in 71 AB's.  Personally, I'd like to see a helluva lot more walks than 7.   What I'd like to see more than that is the 400+ AB's like he had in 2013.  I'd like to see Buxton healthy for a significant amount of time, producing stats similar to that 2013 season at AAA.

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

More interested in K/W rate than anything else, as long as he doesn't turn passive, like Aaron Hicks circa 2014. His biggest issues in MLB were pitch recognition and making good swings on strikes. We know he has the ability to punish mediocre pitches, so lots of doubles, etc. in AAA are less predictive of MLB success for Buxton than would be controlling the strike zone. It will take lots of repetition to ingrain the skills and demonstrate mastery. One month of a good slash line will mean much less than several weeks of a good K/W ratio and good K%, which should be much lower than 20% in AAA.

[ashbury]

He had a lot of flaws at the plate. Not laying off of breaking pitches in the dirt, not laying off of low outside pitches, but also swinging through pitches in the strike zone. I think 3 months in the minors to make sure all of these are corrected will be just fine.