Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

Today there is an article on Dozier.....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brian-doziers-path-out-of-the-slump/

 

[Badsmerf]

He's fixed! Now trade him...

[Vanimal46]

Was browsing on the old Fangraphs chat today and saw a familiar name.....

mike sixel

2:26 Buxton still having issues......I know prospects can struggle and still turn out to be great, but there are degrees of struggle. What are your thoughts on Lord Byron these days?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:27 I think Buxton is so physically gifted that he's never before had to make any significant adjustments. It's unfortunate that he's going to have to do it on such a well-lit stage. I still think he's going to be one hell of a big leaguer, but it's going to take some time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Was browsing on the old Fangraphs chat today and saw a familiar name.....

mike sixel

2:26 Buxton still having issues......I know prospects can struggle and still turn out to be great, but there are degrees of struggle. What are your thoughts on Lord Byron these days?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:27 I think Buxton is so physically gifted that he's never before had to make any significant adjustments. It's unfortunate that he's going to have to do it on such a well-lit stage. I still think he's going to be one hell of a big leaguer, but it's going to take some time.

 

Funny, I just went to read the chat and was going to post that!

[Vanimal46]

Twins related nugget on Fangraphs chat today:

12:16

Terry Ryan: Over/under of 1.5 trades I make by July 31st. Which side are you betting on?
12:16
Dave Cameron: Over, but they’re probably smaller deals. Santana could be an August trade, so no big rush there.

[old nurse]

Actually for the Twins an August trade makes sense in that if they have to pay significant amounts of money they would probably rather have someone claim them. Any of the position players there wouldn't be any advantage in losing them that way. One position player of what they have would be reasonable expectation, two in a heavy demand market. Suzuki isn't any better or worse than any other catcher available. Nunez is probability  one of the better utility players.  Depends on if a pretender thinks they can be a contender.  Towards the end of the month there will be a clearer picture.

[Mike Sixel]

these are actually from KLAW's chat today:

 

"I think Max Kepler is going to be fine. Takes some pretty good ABs already. Potential all star? Above average player? 18-20 Taters a year?

 

KLAW:

Potential All Star. could see 20-25 HR, maybe only .240-260 most years, but with solid OBP because he'll walk. I say potential All Star because if I'm light with the bat, or he has a high BABIP year and hits .280, he'll be an All Star.

 

"help decide a debate between friends. Dozier and Stewart to the Dodger for Jose De Leon and a low level prospect"

KLAW:

Which friend is the delusional Dodgers fan?

[nicksaviking]

 

these are actually from KLAW's chat today:

 

"I think Max Kepler is going to be fine. Takes some pretty good ABs already. Potential all star? Above average player? 18-20 Taters a year?

 

KLAW:

Potential All Star. could see 20-25 HR, maybe only .240-260 most years, but with solid OBP because he'll walk. I say potential All Star because if I'm light with the bat, or he has a high BABIP year and hits .280, he'll be an All Star.

 

"help decide a debate between friends. Dozier and Stewart to the Dodger for Jose De Leon and a low level prospect"

KLAW:

Which friend is the delusional Dodgers fan?

 

Good stuff on both comments from KLAW.

 

Also, not to forget the obligatory: KLAW hates the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW also posted is top 25 under 25 on ESPN.....

 

Kepler, Buxton,Sano made the honorable mention, but NOT in the top 25.

[mikelink45]

I am amazed at how quickly people have become skeptical of Berrios.  I am a skeptic of the Twins ability to develop talent, but I still believe in the talent.

[alarp33]

 

I am amazed at how quickly people have become skeptical of Berrios.  I am a skeptic of the Twins ability to develop talent, but I still believe in the talent.

 

Is this in reference to something specifically? Who has written skeptically on Berrios?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"help decide a debate between friends. Dozier and Stewart to the Dodger for Jose De Leon and a low level prospect"

KLAW:

Which friend is the delusional Dodgers fan?

Heh.

 

De Leon would be a great get for the Twins but no way does Ryan give up Dozier AND Stewart.

[Dantes929]

 

Do we still think Fangrapghs was wrong about believing Berrios would be an upgrade over Gibson?

I might be missing something here.   I am hoping Berrios is an upgrade over Milone or Nolasco.  Why would Gibson be the one to whom Berrios is compared?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I might be missing something here.   I am hoping Berrios is an upgrade over Milone or Nolasco.  Why would Gibson be the one to whom Berrios is compared?

 

I think an earlier article said that......but that was months ago, so I could be remembering wrongly. 

[Dantes929]

 

I think an earlier article said that......but that was months ago, so I could be remembering wrongly. 

Lol,  thanks.   I just noticed that.   Was also wondering about the guy who posted about being excited about Berrios pitching tonight.    Had me surfing all over the net.    Feeling a little foolish.   

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, this is a bit of a necro thread.....hope to be better about keeping it updated now that it's back.

[mikelink45]

 

Is this in reference to something specifically? Who has written skeptically on Berrios?

when I read the comments in these posts I find that the enthusiasm for Berrios has really dropped.  Just like Chagois, we need to give the young pitchers a much bigger window of opportunity.  I think of how we have stuck with Duffey (a good thing) but Chagois and Berrios were poorly handled and it has affected a lot of peoples thoughts too.  I would be more specific, but it would require me to go back through all the comment sections.  So take my comment as a general feeling that our excitement for Berrios  - compare it with last year - should be just as strong and we should be pushing for his return.

[Mike Sixel]

 

when I read the comments in these posts I find that the enthusiasm for Berrios has really dropped.  Just like Chagois, we need to give the young pitchers a much bigger window of opportunity.  I think of how we have stuck with Duffey (a good thing) but Chagois and Berrios were poorly handled and it has affected a lot of peoples thoughts too.  I would be more specific, but it would require me to go back through all the comment sections.  So take my comment as a general feeling that our excitement for Berrios  - compare it with last year - should be just as strong and we should be pushing for his return.

 

Ya, nothing in this thread really does that......

[Mike Sixel]

From Baseball America today:

 

Michael (Haddonfield, Illinois): Max Kepler's up to seven homers for the big club after hitting just one for Rochester this season. Is his power sustainable, and if so, what underlying factors in the minors support his big-league power surge?

 

John Manuel: His power will be more to the gaps than over the fence power early in his career, but Kepler's a big guy with a nice swing. I do see his peak for power being in the 20-22 HR range, real above-average home run power at his peak. I see him having a similar career to Nick Markakis but with a bit more home run pop. Incidentally, the Twins' first-round pick this year, Alex Kirilloff, is definitely Kepler-ish though he may wind up with a bit more power, and he probably runs a bit better.

[Major League Ready]

Interesting!  Thanks for posting this, Mike.  Perhaps the most interesting part of this for me was the assessment of Kirilloff and that he might run better than Kepler.  I think it's tough to predict how guys like Kepler will develop in terms of HR power.  Who would have thought Dozier would hit 25+ HRs in a season?  Kepler has plenty of power.  You would think he could develop into a 3 hole guy that would hit upper 20s and even have an occasional 30 HR year.

 

All I know is that the idea of having Kepler/Sano in the heart of the order for years sounds great.  I am really pulling for Palka to continue developing and do what he is doing now but at the ML level.  Kepler/Sano/Palka could be a fierce middle of the order for a long stretch.  

[Mike Sixel]

FG is starting their trade series.....Buxton was 42 last year, and if off the list this year.

 

"Buxton and Soler are reminders that not every talented young player improves linearly, and while both could still have good careers, it seems pretty clear that the stock of both players is down relative to what it was a year ago."

 

One thing to remember, Cameron writes the articles, and he's always been skeptical of Buxton hitting very well. Always liked him as a player, never loved him like KLAW and others.

[markos]

 

FG is starting their trade series.....Buxton was 42 last year, and if off the list this year.

 

"Buxton and Soler are reminders that not every talented young player improves linearly, and while both could still have good careers, it seems pretty clear that the stock of both players is down relative to what it was a year ago."

 

One thing to remember, Cameron writes the articles, and he's always been skeptical of Buxton hitting very well. Always liked him as a player, never loved him like KLAW and others.

He did mention Buxton again in his Honorable Mention column this morning.

[Mike Sixel]

From today's chat (so far....man, this meeting is the worst)....I was trying to see if they agree with some here they Twins should "bank on" the strong second half.....not thrilled with the answer either way....

 

Jeff
12:13 Thoughts on Byron Buxton potentially putting it together for a big 2nd half?

 

Dan Szymborski
12:13 I remain stubbornly optimistic about Buxton

 

mike sixel
12:15 How many fans will get hit in the stands, while staring at their phones, trying to find Pokeman? Quite the phenomena! Let's say that now that Sano is at 3B, Kepler is in RF, and Berrios comes up....the Twins are close to .500 in the second half (a guy can dream), would you plan for next year based on the full year's awful results, or the much better 2nd half results as being the true talent going into next year?

 

Dan Szymborski
12:16 I wouldn't plan based on either - it's kind of a simplistic way of planning.

[Mike Sixel]

From the prospects chat today:

 

Tim
3:10 Is Daniel Palka a legitimate prospect? What's different between him and AB Walker?

Eric A Longenhagen
3:12 Palka: Pull power, swing path is such that he'll need to time everything out in front of him to pull it and create lift. That's hard to do in the big leagues but is easier for LHH like Palka to do because he'll see more RH pitching. Think he's more of a platoon type than a regular but that's a solid prospect.
Walker: The power is crazy but I don't see him making enough contact and it's LF only, though some of the guys at the Futures Game yesterday told me the 20 arm we saw in Fall League has improved.

 

(and, here is a bonus on Hu):

Rick
2:11 Chih-Wei Hu looked great in his inning. His change or whatever that was looked scary. Without getting too worked up over 3 batters, how much should we take away from his appearance and what's his future look like to you? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen
2:13 So, Hu calls that pitch the cat. And he grips it with his thumb and pinky at the 7 and 4 o clock spots on the baseball with his middle finger at the 12 and his index and ring finger at the 10 and the 2. Does that make sense to you guys, it's an odd thing to describe.
2:14 It has splitter action and I marked it as a splitter in my notes before learning how he grips it. It was yesterday's only 70 secondary offering and it's freaky as hell. The fastball is flat and plays below the velo so there's some concern there.

[Vanimal46]

I can agree with that assessment of Palka vs. ABW. Palka appears to have a better skill-set than ABW that should translate to the majors. 

[bluechipper]

 

these are actually from KLAW's chat today:

 

"I think Max Kepler is going to be fine. Takes some pretty good ABs already. Potential all star? Above average player? 18-20 Taters a year?

 

KLAW:

Potential All Star. could see 20-25 HR, maybe only .240-260 most years, but with solid OBP because he'll walk. I say potential All Star because if I'm light with the bat, or he has a high BABIP year and hits .280, he'll be an All Star.

That's a good endorsement of Kepler, but I'm a little surprised with the low BA projection. He puts the ball in play, and he hit .322 in his breakout year at AA. I think .280 and above is more likely what he becomes.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's a good endorsement of Kepler, but I'm a little surprised with the low BA projection. He puts the ball in play, and he hit .322 in his breakout year at AA. I think .280 and above is more likely what he becomes.

 

Only 33 OFs (with 200+ ABs) are hitting .280 or higher right now......out of 93. So, while my first thought was the same as yours, I wonder if that's high? 

[bluechipper]

 

FG is starting their trade series.....Buxton was 42 last year, and if off the list this year.

 

"Buxton and Soler are reminders that not every talented young player improves linearly, and while both could still have good careers, it seems pretty clear that the stock of both players is down relative to what it was a year ago."

 

One thing to remember, Cameron writes the articles, and he's always been skeptical of Buxton hitting very well. Always liked him as a player, never loved him like KLAW and others.

I wouldn't trade Buxton for anyone listed #41-50, not that I'm biased or anything.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I wouldn't trade Buxton for anyone listed #41-50, not that I'm biased or anything.

 

I would consider Giolito and maybe Gray. But the others? Not sure. Probably not. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

FG is starting their trade series.....Buxton was 42 last year, and if off the list this year.

 

"Buxton and Soler are reminders that not every talented young player improves linearly, and while both could still have good careers, it seems pretty clear that the stock of both players is down relative to what it was a year ago."

 

One thing to remember, Cameron writes the articles, and he's always been skeptical of Buxton hitting very well. Always liked him as a player, never loved him like KLAW and others.

Thanks for the info, Mike!

 

While I understand the skepticism, I have to ask how much FG's Cameron has seen of Buxton lately?  Yes, I'm talking about the godforsaken idea of the EyeBall Test.  Buxton is starting to make more contact.  And stats over the last 14 days [8 games, 29 PA's] also bears that out.