Article: Rotating the Rotation: Is Jose Berrios Coming Up Soon?

[nicksaviking]

 

Last time I checked this club: a. was a contender last season and b. are not yet out of the race.

 

You got to play your best starters now in order to win now.  If Nolasco cools off, or performs like Milone, then you get rid of him.  I do not have a crystal ball to say that he will be hot or cold any time soon.  The point is that he is hot now and it is silly not to pitch him just in case he might cool off.  It is like sitting a guy with 20 games hitting streak because the likelihood is that the streak will get broken next time.

 

Duffey last season proved that he can pitch well the first time through an order (opponent OPS .446 innings 1-3), not that great the second time through (opponent OPS .810 innings 4-6), and pretty horribly the third (opponent OPS 1.320 innings 7+).   And that happened mostly after the rosters expanded.

 

Ideal profile for a reliever with 2 pitches, which is what he is.   If the Twins want to bring up Duffey and pop him in the pen instead of Fien/Tonkin, I'd be all for it.

 

Rotation, not that much, until he can prove he can go through an order at least twice with moderate success, which he has not done yet.

 

How is Duffey going to prove that, if he isn't actually given a shot to prove it? I don't have high expectations for Duffey, but he did well last year and I'm not willing to toss that aside and yell "Fluke" without him getting a chance to prove it wrong.

 

This team isn't a contender, the batters are young and too strikeout prone, the lineup isn't balanced or constructed well, the bullpen is still relying on middling vets and AAAA guys and the starters are spectacularly unreliable for guys who's most glowing praise is always "experienced veteran".

 

Unless we want to continue pushing back the timeline because the young starters and relievers haven't had a chance to take their MLB lumps, they need to get called up this year and get considerable reps. I would rather watch Meyer, Berrios and Duffey lose 85 games than watch Nolasco, Hughes and Milone lose 80. And frankly, after watching the Twins young bats last year and the young players league-wide, I really see very little reason to expect the veterans to outperform the young arms.

[Dman]

Like most everyone else I would like to see the young guys up because they are this teams future and they need the experience to get better.  Why waste a year on the young position players learning and then next year on Young pitchers learning their craft?  Just bite the bullet and move forward as fast as you can.

 

And yet I get why the FO won't do it.  First there is the small sample size for the MLB and MILB pitchers involved.  Second the FO needs wins to put people in the seats to pay for the team so its not easy to go with the young guys who might struggle.  Third it wouldn't be a bad idea to build trade value for the starters you have and with such a small sample size it is hard to do that.  Fourth all the other teams are waiting to see what they have before feeling a strong need to trade for players which is why a lot of trades don't happen until June and July when teams better know where they stand in the playoff chase.

 

Verdict to me is the Twins are not going to make any quick moves with the starters.  Someone is going to have to be really bad for several turns or injured before any early changes will be made,  Unless they decide to move starters in AAA to the pen I don't see anything happening until June or July.

[alarp33]

 

Like most everyone else I would like to see the young guys up because they are this teams future and they need the experience to get better.  Why waste a year on the young position players learning and then next year on Young pitchers learning their craft?  Just bite the bullet and move forward as fast as you can.

 

And yet I get why the FO won't do it.  First there is the small sample size for the MLB and MILB pitchers involved.  Second the FO needs wins to put people in the seats to pay for the team so its not easy to go with the young guys who might struggle.  Third it wouldn't be a bad idea to build trade value for the starters you have and with such a small sample size it is hard to do that.  Fourth all the other teams are waiting to see what they have before feeling a strong need to trade for players which is why a lot of trades don't happen until June and July when teams better know where they stand in the playoff chase.

 

Verdict to me is the Twins are not going to make any quick moves with the starters.  Someone is going to have to be really bad for several turns or injured before any early changes will be made,  Unless they decide to move starters in AAA to the pen I don't see anything happening until June or July.

 

One quick nitpick.  You think Tommy Milone puts more fans in the seats than Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios? 

 

Also, why would you assume they would/ might struggle?  These aren't hitters being rushed from AA, they are pitchers with lots of succesful innings at AAA

[jimbo92107]

 

Berrios?  Duffey?  Nah.

 

Last time I checked, there is a guy who is pitching better than both, any way you cut it, in Rochester, and he has much higher upside than both.

 

Alex Meyer should be in the Twins' rotation way before Berrios or Duffey.

 

Milone needs to go and the already pretty mediocre at best Twins' pen will not improve with someone like him.  Plenty of other arms to do mop up duty.

Meyer? No way, not until after he posts half a season of good starts in Rochester. Otherwise we're just looking at a statistical anemone, a fig newton of our imagination. 

 

We know Berrios is ready from over a season of great pitching in AA/AAA. Milone isn't going to suddenly get radically better, which he'd have to do in order to be a better pitcher than Berrios. 

 

The Twins today have a bunch of #3's, 4's and 5's in the starting ro. Berrios is a solid #2, maybe even a #1. At some point Meyer and Duffey may make this into a very good starter corps, but both those guys have some proving to do in the minors. Duffey needs an MLB change-up, and Meyer needs to demonstrate reliable command (and hold base runners better). 

 

Meanwhile, Nolasco has just pitched some of the best ball of his career. Time to dangle him for a trade? Good grief, what was all that money supposed to buy, trade bait? 

[tobi0040]

 

Meyer? No way, not until after he posts half a season of good starts in Rochester. Otherwise we're just looking at a statistical anemone, a fig newton of our imagination. 

 

We know Berrios is ready from over a season of great pitching in AA/AAA. Milone isn't going to suddenly get radically better, which he'd have to do in order to be a better pitcher than Berrios. 

 

The Twins today have a bunch of #3's, 4's and 5's in the starting ro. Berrios is a solid #2, maybe even a #1. At some point Meyer and Duffey may make this into a very good starter corps, but both those guys have some proving to do in the minors. Duffey needs an MLB change-up, and Meyer needs to demonstrate reliable command (and hold base runners better). 

 

Meanwhile, Nolasco has just pitched some of the best ball of his career. Time to dangle him for a trade? Good grief, what was all that money supposed to buy, trade bait? 

 

The problem is this team is not winning the world series this year.  We just aren’t. And
Nolasco isn’t likely to keep this up.  I mean the guy is 33 years old and has a career ERA+ of 91.  So his mid 2’s ERA through 20 IP is probably not going to be sustained.  We should have no qualms about trading him at all.

 

And regarding Meyer needing a half of a year in AAA, the guy is 26 year old.  Outside of 2015 his numbers were incredible and he already has 140 dominant innings in AAA under his belt.

 

2012 (low and high A) – 129 IP, 2.86 ERA, 9.7 k per 9. 

2013 (AA) – 78 IP, 2.99 ERA, 11.5 k per 9. 

2014 (AAA) – 130 IP, 3.52 ERA, 10.6 k per 9.

[Dman]

 

One quick nitpick.  You think Tommy Milone puts more fans in the seats than Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios? 

 

Also, why would you assume they would/ might struggle?  These aren't hitters being rushed from AA, they are pitchers with lots of succesful innings at AAA

 

I don't think Tommy Milone is the future for the Twins.  I just think the FO is going to give him more time to straighten out especially since they demoted him to AAA last year and he was lights out down there.  If they can trade him right now I think they should but again I think they will be patient.  They will play things out and see where they are by June or July and then make the tougher decisions.

 

Lot's of young pitchers seem to struggle when they hit the Majors.  I think Trevor May walked about half the batters he faced when he first came up.  Gibson wasn't great either.  Duffey was pretty good but had a tough first game out there and got sent down.  I just think odds are there is an adjustment period.  How long is anybodies guess but usually there is one.

[tobi0040]

 

 

 

I don't think Tommy Milone is the future for the Twins.  I just think the FO is going to give him more time to straighten out especially since they demoted him to AAA last year and he was lights out down there.  If they can trade him right now I think they should but again I think they will be patient.  They will play things out and see where they are by June or July and then make the tougher decisions.

 

Lot's of young pitchers seem to struggle when they hit the Majors.  I think Trevor May walked about half the batters he faced when he first came up.  Gibson wasn't great either.  Duffey was pretty good but had a tough first game out there and got sent down.  I just think odds are there is an adjustment period.  How long is anybodies guess but usually there is one.

 

The time to trade Milone was in the off-season.  Hey Tigers, instead of giving Mike Pelfrey 2 years and $16M, we can send you Tommy Milone who is on the hook for a year and $4.5M and controlled another two years.  Interested? 

 

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Right now I'm assuming Glen Perkins doesn't come back in 2016. Frayed labrum is not a good injury for a pitcher. I think he has been struggling with the same shoulder issue for some time and it is gradually deteriorating.

 

I was kind of assuming that he'd pitch again - just maybe not well and then there would be surgery?

 

Kills me they didn't trade him two to three years ago when they were awful and he was very good. I know everyone can look back but I feel like "Bad Team Trades Good Closer at Deadline" is so commonplace and obvious that we can do some "I knew this would happen" complaining.

Edited April 22, 2016 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

I'd like us to also consider the concept of moving Phil Hughes to the pen. I know he's got a big contract but the bullpen could more readily use a righty than a lefty and Hughes has had success pitching out of the pen earlier in his career. He hasn't pitched particularly well this year (though his FIP is low, SSS acknowledged) and is likely the starter who is most useful out of the pen.

 

Just a thought.

 

Quoting myself. Bored at work. All right.

 

This was the reason I loved his first contract so much. He signed for an amount where he would be an acceptable luxury in the pen even if he didn't pan out as a starter. It seemed like such a good move for a team with payroll to spend because of young players.

 

Second contract not so good though I think it's pretty defensible, just didn't work out very well.  Hughes for closer!

[tobi0040]

I was kind of assuming that he'd pitch again - just maybe not well and then there would be surgery?

 

Kills me they didn't trade him two to three years ago when they were awful and he was very good. I know everyone can look back but I feel like "Bad Team Trades Good Closer at Deadline" is so commonplace and obvious that we can do some "I knew this would happen" complaining.

The lack of foresight over the last year or two has been just awful.

 

Perkins declining and Jepsen pitching much better than reality last year. They don't sign anyone.

 

Plouffe and Sano.

 

The extra bodies around the rotation and tendering guys like Milone.

 

The outfield defense with both Sano and Arcia in it. The log jam between OF, 1b, and DH and the Park signing.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Extreme move = promoting a top pitching prospect who has been dominant in 15 starts in AAA?  Not sure I understand that one... 

 

That extreme move (in the case of Berrios) comes with a DFA for someone as well as someone else being bumped from the rotation.  I think we have some candidates to bump, but like it or not, they deserve more than 3 starts to prove themselves.

 

I'll say what I said before, with Berrios not being on the 40 man, I would not be surprised at all if Duffy, Dean, or Meyer get the call ahead of him unless there's a corresponding 60 day DL move to come to go with it.

[Dman]

 

The time to trade Milone was in the off-season.  Hey Tigers, instead of giving Mike Pelfrey 2 years and $16M, we can send you Tommy Milone who is on the hook for a year and $4.5M and controlled another two years.  Interested? 

 

Yep I think a lot of people on here felt that way last year.  Somehow the Twins saw the Value (i.e. two years of control) for themselves and apparently didn't want to give that away.  If the guys in AAA keep pitching well and they move Milone to the pen that value will be gone.  Not that is was much to begin with after all we got him by trade off of a waiver claim, and his peripherals are not great so i don't think the Twins were going to get much for him anyway.  

 

If Milone doesn't pick it up in the next couple of starts maybe the Twins will make a move sooner than I think but they seem the patient type to me.  I think Berrios or Meyer would look better in his spot just have to wait and see what they decide to do and when.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Dman

[diehardtwinsfan]

the concern I have about using BABIP is that it is not as luck driven as is often implied here.  If you put anyone in this forum on the mound, we'd have an insanely high BABIP that would never normalize b/c quite frankly, we suck at pitching at the ML level, which is why we aren't there. 

 

I like Meyer as a prospect, but I don't think you can just write off that BABIP, especially in conjunction with his walk rate.  He had to make adjustments to get that down to a more normal level, and hopefully we will see sustained success.  I do agree that he needs to be doing this for at least another month before we consider a callup, but if he does, I'd put him ahead of Berrios without question.  That's no disrespect to Jose, except that Meyer is already on the 40 man, and Jose is not.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

One quick nitpick.  You think Tommy Milone puts more fans in the seats than Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios? 

 

Also, why would you assume they would/ might struggle?  These aren't hitters being rushed from AA, they are pitchers with lots of succesful innings at AAA

 

Truthfully, out side of these circles, no one has heard of any of them.  I don't think Meyer or Berrios are going to put a lot of butts in seats except for their family who will most certainly be at TF when they pitch.

[alarp33]

 

That extreme move (in the case of Berrios) comes with a DFA for someone as well as someone else being bumped from the rotation.  I think we have some candidates to bump, but like it or not, they deserve more than 3 starts to prove themselves.

 

I'll say what I said before, with Berrios not being on the 40 man, I would not be surprised at all if Duffy, Dean, or Meyer get the call ahead of him unless there's a corresponding 60 day DL move to come to go with it.

 

Again, there is plenty of dead weight on the back-end of the 40 man roster. DFA'ing Casey Fien, Pat Dean, etc is in no sense of the word an "extreme" move.  

 

I would wager any amount of money that Berrios does not get called up behind Duffy, Dean and Meyer.  Frankly I'd be surprised if he was behind Duffy AND Meyer (Dean is not a logical candidate in any way)

[Don Walcott]

In 15 AAA starts, Berrios is 8-2, 2.33 ERA, a sub-1 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 92.2 innings.  He's actually gotten better since being promoted to AAA.  IMO, he's earned a shot, and he should replace Milone ASAP.

 

As far as drawing fans, I'm convinced that once Berrios comes up, there will be a lot of fan interest in seeing him pitch.  I'm pretty sure everyone on this forum would prefer to see him pitch over Milone.  And if he comes up and has one good start, there will be a buzz around him all season.  Everyone will want to see him pitch -- probably more than any other starter the Twins have.  But most importantly, the Twins will likely be better with him instead of Milone.

[Thrylos]

 

The time to trade Milone was in the off-season.  Hey Tigers, instead of giving Mike Pelfrey 2 years and $16M, we can send you Tommy Milone who is on the hook for a year and $4.5M and controlled another two years.  Interested? 

 

That's the idea.  Especially having Milone and his 86 mph "fast"ball in the division facing Sano, Park, Plouffe, Dozier & Co multiple times a season.

[Thrylos]

Re: 40-man spot for Berrios. 

 

No need to DFA anyone.  Perkins is done.  He can move to the 60 day DL and go rest his shoulder in Fort Myers or some place and stay in the DL until his FB hits 95 mph and the slider 85.

[Jham]

Ok, Milone has not been a train wreck.  He's been an odd mix of really good with command and strike out stuff, to very bad and extremely hittable in the same starts.  That's a little strange.  I want Berrios in the rotation soon.  I'm just not positive Milone is the guy to move.  Nolasco is pitching too well right now.  I think Gibson will be our best overall starter this season.  And based on spring, I expect there to be a substantial learning curve for JO when he comes up.

There's no guarantee high prospects will be great MLB pitchers.

Phil Hughes was BA's #4 overall prospect in 2006.  Higher than JO or Meyer.  Ervin Santana was the 29th ranked prospect in 2003.  Each is in the tail end of his prime, and we're certain guys like Berrios or Duffey will be better?  We don't have Harvey and Syndegaard and de Grom.  Our prospects have flaws.  I get wanting to see these talented arms, I just don't get the rush.  We can compete this year.  We'll likely need some of these young arms to perform better than expected.  We'll also likely need big years from some veteran arms.  These are pretty big decisions to force after 3 starts.

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

My concern about not moving Berrios is that how is he going to become a better pitcher if he doesn't get challenged by better hitters? And as far as walks being a concern he has fewer walks in each start this season (4, 3, 1). And knowing Berrios, he may have been slightly over pitching in his first two starts (maybe being over amped to show the Twins how improved he is), and made adjustments to how he pitches by his 3rd start. But really do we have to see Berrios completely dominate this level to a point where he could rival his dominant stint in Fort Meyers in 2014? I want to see him fail some early on in his major league career because he will "get it" on how to attack big league hitters quickly. I just don't want to see the Twins jerk him around the way they did with Matt Garza in the 2007 season. I understand where Garza is now, but in 2007 he was seen as a legit top of the rotation starter who had a great spring (out pitched Carlos Silva for the #5 spot in the rotation, sent down until July). Anywho keeping Berrios in Rochester till August or September is stupid if he continues to pitch like an ace as he SHOULD start the 2017 season with the Twins on day 1. At this pace he won't have a chance like that till 2018.

[Linus]

I think Berrios still needs a few more starts to show that he is done with AAA but he has been about as consistent with his success as any prospect I've seen. If someone doesn't get hurt I would make a spot for him soon. Surprisingly the spot he might take is gibsons

[bluechipper]

In regards to Berrios' strong start, Roy Smalley just tweeted that he's a firm believer in forcing a promotion by dominating AAA before being called up. He said maybe by June.... Really?

[Darius]

Who cares if Milone is out of options? Honestly, why would finding a way to keep him be Amy kind of priority? You can find a beating heart to stand in the mound and lose games in the independent leagues (see Albers, who is Milone-Lite).

 

It's mind boggling that there are two young starters lighting up AAA, with excellent stuff, and the Twins continue to run out Tommy Milone, who has been a ticking time bomb with an 88 mph arrow straight fastball for his entire career. The guy has never been a good pitcher. I have never seen semi-advanced sabermetrics be disregarded in such a way, when talking about a player and their value (by most fans).

 

Only the Twins front office would make a decision that's this deplorable. I'm sorry,

but that's just a fact. Throw the starting pitchers that the Twins have at their disposal I to another system, and there wouldn't be a single one that would continue to run out Tommy Milone when they've had a top 10 pitching prospect ready for The majors since mid-2015 (Berrios), and another very good prospect who has already spent half a season as the team's best pitcher (Duffey).

 

It would be totally different if the Twins were 12-5 at this point. But, TR is sitting and watching this team in a tailspin, on the verge of being completely out of hope before May, and its nothing but status quo....which was FUBAR to begin with.

 

If this season doesnt epitomize the reasons why TR needs to go, I don't know what more can be done (The bullpen situation, the Sano/Park debacle, the Duffey/Berrios set-up out of ST). Does he need to set the all-time loss record for someone other than a few fans to take notice of how utterly incompetent he is when it comes to managing an MLB roster?

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins don't want a pitcher of Berrios potential retching free agency before age 30.

They will find excuse after excuse to keep Berrios in the minors.

[Major League Ready]

 

A soft-tossing lefty in the bullpen?  IMHO, not really a recipe for success.  Definitely not the direction the Twins moving.  Power pitchers in the pen!!

 

Milone being traded:  kinda laughable based on any reasonable expectation of an upside and a 1 year, $4.5M contract he signed in January.

 

then again, this is the team that once traded Kevin Correa  

 

Having watched Berrios pitch only a few times in Spring Training, his fastball is one of the flattest I've ever seen. Maybe that has changed.  I really hope so.

Does it really matter how hard he throws if he is extremely effective during the first ABs? 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Does it really matter how hard he throws if he is extremely effective during the first ABs? 

 

It isn't just the soft-tossing.  As a former starter, It will take him longer to warm up and it is highly questionable that Milone would ever be "extremely effective" in the pen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does it really matter how hard he throws if he is extremely effective during the first ABs?

Does his effectiveness the first time through the order in his last 3 starts really mean anything?

[Craig Arko]

Being highly effective for just one time through the order screams 'long reliever' to me.

[Steve Penz]

Now that service time is not an issue I am really losing patience. Malone is a nice pitcher and will never be more than we have seen. We can move on from him. Also, will Santana miss a second start? Berrios couled not have been ready for today's game so they bring up Duffey. That's OK but if Santana can't start at the end of the week and the don't bring up Berrios for that start at least then there is a huge problem.

[jorgenswest]

Hopefully the extra spot on the 40 man roster is with Berrios in mind.