Article: Rotating the Rotation: Is Jose Berrios Coming Up Soon?

[nytwinsfan]

 

He doesn't have great splits going through the order the first time, except for 3 starts this season.  He's got 106 starts that say otherwise.

 

If you want to demote him to the pen, fine -- he's scuffling, we could probably use a long man out there, and we've got Berrios and/or Meyer looking good in AAA.  But he's not a prospective short relief weapon at this point.

 

Actually, I checked this on Baseball Reference, and you are correct. It may just be a SSS then. But he could still be a decent long reliever.

Edited April 22, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[DuluthFan]

You leave all the pitchers in the minors where they are. You wait until someone is injured at the MLB level and then you call up whomever is pitching well at that time. The Twins are a team who cannot afford to waste depth on the whims of a few panicked fans. Someone will get hurt eventually. They always do.

 

When a move is made, I would start with either Duffy or Myer since they are already on the 40 man roster. If Berrios is called up before september and is sent down before the season ends you will have needlessly wasted an option year when there were available alternatives. The Twins cannot just casually throw away options when situations like this year may come up later. I believe Myer may be out next year.

[alarp33]

 

You leave all the pitchers in the minors where they are. You wait until someone is injured at the MLB level and then you call up whomever is pitching well at that time. The Twins are a team who cannot afford to waste depth on the whims of a few panicked fans. Someone will get hurt eventually. They always do.

 

When a move is made, I would start with either Duffy or Myer since they are already on the 40 man roster. If Berrios is called up before september and is sent down before the season ends you will have needlessly wasted an option year when there were available alternatives. The Twins cannot just casually throw away options when situations like this year may come up later. I believe Myer may be out next year.

 

I'm not going to go point for point, but just wanted to say I disagree with every single thing you wrote, and hope you aren't Terry Ryan in disguise posting on this board

[nicksaviking]

 

You leave all the pitchers in the minors where they are. You wait until someone is injured at the MLB level and then you call up whomever is pitching well at that time. The Twins are a team who cannot afford to waste depth on the whims of a few panicked fans. Someone will get hurt eventually. They always do.

 

 

The Twins are 5-11, with a young lineup that isn't ready yet to legitimately win it all, and a rotation full of low ceiling veterans only one of whom has a history of being anything close to reliable and stable.

 

What kind of team can afford to chose youth over depth if not the Twins?

[nicksaviking]

Also, aside from Santana, it's not like we're talking about some low-ceiling, boring-but-consistent starters like Mike Leake or Bronson Arroyo, we are talking about some of the most volatile starters in the game. On any given day, heck, any given year, these guys can and have been among the worst starters in the league. At this point we are basically equating the term "depth" with "experience". 

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

I'd like us to also consider the concept of moving Phil Hughes to the pen. I know he's got a big contract but the bullpen could more readily use a righty than a lefty and Hughes has had success pitching out of the pen earlier in his career. He hasn't pitched particularly well this year (though his FIP is low, SSS acknowledged) and is likely the starter who is most useful out of the pen.

 

Just a thought.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I hate to say it, but I don't think you see any action for at least another month, and if Meyer keeps pitching the way he's pitched, being on the 40 man, he gets the call before Berrios... as would Duffey if he figures things out.  That's the nature of that game as someone gets DFAd or moved to the 60 day to make room for Jose. 

 

I'd also add that you might see either Alex or Jose in the pen and not in the rotation if they do get the call.  I'm not necessarily against that if it's temporary... then again, Trevor May was supposed to be temporary. 

 

With Milone, I'd have traded him this offseason, though even as a 4/5, he would have value at the deadline.  Someone is always looking to shore up the back of their rotation.  He's not going to get you a high ceiling prospect, but getting a decent hitting prospect in the low minors wouldn't be a bad get, and the org could use a few more of those.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm with nick, it's abundantly clear our hitters are going to need more time to adjust and thrive.  Might as well call the young arms up to do the same rather than staggering everything.

[Thrylos]

 

Well when you construct your roster in a way that the best pitchers have to take a back seat to preserve depth, you kind of cancel out the positive benefit of the depth.

 

Milone traded/DFA'd, Nolasco and Hughes to the pen, all three of Berrios, Duffey and Meyer up by June. It wouldn't be popular and it would never happen, but if this club ever cared about getting the most peak years out of their young arms, this is what they should be doing.

 

This is an example of doing what you said you should not do

 

Nolasco and Hughes are the Twins best starters this season.  Nolasco has 2.64 FIP & 0.984 WHIP; Hughes 2.92 & 1.145.  

 

Last season Duffey had 3.24 FIP and 1.310 WHIP with the Twins.  In other words Duffey's best last season is worse than what these guys are doing right now.  Getting him up there instead of those 2 will hurt the team

 

In addition to Milone (who stinks) Gibson is having a pretty nasty start of the season.

 

Duffey is Rochester's 4th best maybe starter at this point.  Starters ranking there:  

 

Meyer 1.80 FIP, 0.87 WHIP
Berrios 2.71 FIP, 0.94 WHIP
Dean 3.58 FIP, 1.06 WHIP
Duffey 2.98 FIP, 1.40 WHIP

 

So there is no way that Duffey should be coming up north as a starter any time soon.

 

Furthermore, other than Milone, the rotation has not been an issue with the Twins this season.  They have bigger fish to fry, like finding a closer and at least another arm better than Jepsen, if they want to compete.

 

 

[alarp33]

I think people are putting way too much thought into the Berrios 40 man "issue".  There is plenty of dead weight to cut loose.  

 

He will get the call because he has the least amount to still prove at AAA - Meyer may have the higher ceiling, but its fair to say he needs more starts after last seasons debacle.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

If you don't want to option O'Rourke, the other possibility is to cut Casey Fien. Then you can call up whatever starting pitcher you want.

 

I assume that O'Rourke's place will be taken when Glen Perkins comes back - hopefully/likely before we make any starting rotation changes. So you're talking about Fien/Tonkin etc.

[Don Walcott]

Berrios has mastered 7 dominant innings every start in AAA.  It has to be frustrating for him that he's not even gotten an opportunity to pitch in the majors yet.  Milone is simply not very good, and he's not helping this team.  It's too early to bag the entire season (see 1991, 2015).  I hope they pull the trigger as soon as possible on replacing Milone with Berrios.  Maybe Milone needs some confidence building in AAA like he had last year.  Or maybe he just isn't good enough to start in the majors.  Either way, it seems to me like our best shot at winning a few more games is making this move now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not to mention, this is Meyer's final option year.

 

You sure about that?  I thought he was added to the 40 man last offseason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

One thing that we should be clear of, right now SSS is a big deal for all the pitchers doing well in AAA.  They all have some question marks, Berrios might have the least of them at this point, but I'd be a bit cautious in making extreme moves that are not dictated by injury at this point in the season.  By the end of next month, I think that's a bit more realistic.  We will see if Meyer and Berrios are still pitching this way, and if Duffey has turned it around.  The reality is that you will have 3 pitchers making a case for themselves and your rotation has 5 spots, that for economic as well as performance reasons aren't going to easily free up.  No one in the starting rotation is going to get benched if he's pitching well.  If we are out at the deadline, some of them (Nolasco and Milone in particular) may get traded.

[tobi0040]

 

I'd move Duffey out of the conversation and put him in the pen if we're making choices about which starters to call up and how to improve the team as much as possible. Berrios, Meyer, Duffey would be my pecking order. Knowing the Twins though, theirs is Duffey, Meyer, Berrios until they actually go through with it and it doesn't work, so they end up fixing it in July (at the earliest) when that will already be far too late.

 

Interesting discussion.  I touched on the number crunch in a recent blog.  The Twins have a lot of worthy guys right now all over the roster with not enough spots.

[Willihammer]

You sure about that?  I thought he was added to the 40 man last offseason.

I take that back, he was rostered in Nov 2014 so this is only his 2nd option year.

[dwade]

 

What other symptoms of tipping his pitches might you be looking for? (Not a gotcha question, but an honestly curious one.) Opponents hitting him significantly more and harder the 2nd and 3rd times through the order seems like a big symptom already. It may not be statistically significant this early in the season, though.

 

The biggest thing I'd be looking for is the bottom of the order hitting him hard. As soon as someone notices that he's tipping, the entire dugout knows, and by the time the 7-8-9 hitters come up, they're loaded for bear. Milone's getting them out fine the first time through, then struggling as soon as the lineup turns over. 

[alarp33]

 

One thing that we should be clear of, right now SSS is a big deal for all the pitchers doing well in AAA.  They all have some question marks, Berrios might have the least of them at this point, but I'd be a bit cautious in making extreme moves that are not dictated by injury at this point in the season.  

 

Extreme move = promoting a top pitching prospect who has been dominant in 15 starts in AAA?  Not sure I understand that one... 

[tobi0040]

 

One thing that we should be clear of, right now SSS is a big deal for all the pitchers doing well in AAA.  They all have some question marks, Berrios might have the least of them at this point, but I'd be a bit cautious in making extreme moves that are not dictated by injury at this point in the season.  By the end of next month, I think that's a bit more realistic.  We will see if Meyer and Berrios are still pitching this way, and if Duffey has turned it around.  The reality is that you will have 3 pitchers making a case for themselves and your rotation has 5 spots, that for economic as well as performance reasons aren't going to easily free up.  No one in the starting rotation is going to get benched if he's pitching well.  If w1-4e are out at the deadline, some of them (Nolasco and Milone in particular) may get traded.

 

I think you are not losing much in terms of upside by trading Milone yesterday.  We need higher upside, better stuff guys if this ship is going to right itself in the next 1-4 years. 

 

 

[DJL44]

 

I assume that O'Rourke's place will be taken when Glen Perkins comes back - hopefully/likely before we make any starting rotation changes. So you're talking about Fien/Tonkin etc.

 

Right now I'm assuming Glen Perkins doesn't come back in 2016. Frayed labrum is not a good injury for a pitcher. I think he has been struggling with the same shoulder issue for some time and it is gradually deteriorating.

Edited April 22, 2016 by DJL44

[Thrylos]

 

I think people are putting way too much thought into the Berrios 40 man "issue".  There is plenty of dead weight to cut loose.  

 

He will get the call because he has the least amount to still prove at AAA - Meyer may have the higher ceiling, but its fair to say he needs more starts after last seasons debacle.  

 

Berrios have only 15 starts at AAA.  Half a season.  Meyer has 2+ seasons there.

 

Meyer's last season was a lot like Meyer's 2014, after which he was ranked as better prospect than Berrios by pretty much everyone including BA, and he was ranked as having the organization's best fastball and curveball (same link; got to love the "experts" who came out of the woodwork after last season and saying that he has to develop "a third pitch" - he has a slider and a two-seamer in addition)

 

Here are Meyer's 2014 and 2015 numbers:

2015 3.28 FIP, 1.62 WHIP, .372 BABIP (1.26  nWHIP), 9.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9
2014 3.66 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .321 BABIP (1.24 nWHIP), 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9

 

Pretty darn close, other than a BABIP-driven WHIP, which when normalized for league average BABIP, is practically identical in the 2 seasons.

 

so if Meyer's 2015 was a "debacle", his 2014 was also a "debacle", but I bet you will not find many "experts" who would support that...  

[Thrylos]

 

Right now I'm assuming Glen Perkins doesn't come back in 2016. Frayed labrum is not a good injury for a pitcher. I think he has been struggling with the same shoulder issue for some time and it is gradually deteriorating.

 

FTFY

[Willihammer]

I'd love to see Milone flipped for a reliever.

[alarp33]

 

Berrios have only 15 starts at AAA.  Half a season.  Meyer has 2+ seasons there.

 

Meyer's last season was a lot like Meyer's 2014, after which he was ranked as better prospect than Berrios by pretty much everyone including BA, and he was ranked as having the organization's best fastball and curveball (same link; got to love the "experts" who came out of the woodwork after last season and saying that he has to develop "a third pitch" - he has a slider and a two-seamer in addition)

 

Here are Meyer's 2014 and 2015 numbers:

2015 3.28 FIP, 1.62 WHIP, .372 BABIP (1.26  nWHIP), 9.8 K/9, 4.7 BB/9
2014 3.66 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .321 BABIP (1.24 nWHIP), 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9

 

Pretty darn close, other than a BABIP-driven WHIP, which when normalized for league average BABIP, is practically identical in the 2 seasons.

 

so if Meyer's 2015 was a "debacle", his 2014 was also a "debacle", but I bet you will not find many "experts" who would support that...  

 

That's not really a valid comparison at all.  He only made 8 starts in AAA in 2015, most of that was in relief.  

 

I'm not trying to bash Meyer at all, but he walked 24 in 39 innings as a starter.  He was a disaster as a starter last year. 

 

And yeah, I know he was the higher ranked prospect. I said he is still the higher upside guy.  But if he can't throw strikes for 6+ innings it doesn't matter how good his stuff is.  His 3 starts have been very encouraging. Personally I would like to see another month.  

 

I don't know if Berrios will be a #2, 3, 4 in the Majors over the long run, but I do think he's better than Tommy Milone today. 

 

Edited April 22, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

This is exactly what some of us feared, btw. The starters wouldn't be bad, but they wouldn't be good. And, the higher upside guys would use more pitches in the minors, and nothing here would really change. So far, that's what we've seen, imo.

[Thrylos]

 

That's not really a valid comparison at all.  He only made 8 starts in AAA in 2015, most of that was in relief.  

 

I'm not trying to bash Meyer at all, but he walked 24 in 39 innings as a starter.  He was a disaster as a starter last year. 

 

And yeah, I know he was the higher ranked prospect. I said he is still the higher upside guy.  But if he can't throw strikes for 6+ innings it doesn't matter how good his stuff is.  His 3 starts have been very encouraging. Personally I would like to see another month.  

 

I don't know if Berrios will be a #2, 3, 4 in the Majors over the long run, but I do think he's better than Tommy Milone today. 

 

Agreed.  Berrios is better than Milone right now.  My point is that Meyer is better than Berrios right now.

 

Here are the numbers of 2015 as a starter only vs 2014 for Meyer

 

Here are Meyer's 2014 and 2015 (as a starter) numbers:
2015 3.66 FIP, 1.91 WHIP, .??? BABIP (????nWHIP), 9.4 K/9, 5.4 BB/9
2014 3.66 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .321 BABIP (1.24 nWHIP), 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9

 

Cannot calculate BABIP quickly to calculate normalized WHIP, but they are pretty darn close; I suspect that like his season numbers, WHIP is artificially driven high because of BABIP.  So if 2015 was a "disaster", 2014 should be one too   The Twins pulled the trigger to quickly on that one and moved him to the pen.  Mechanical problem that the pitching coach could not fix and he got the boot (they should have pulled that trigger faster, mid-season.)

 

Check Berrios' walks this season, btw

Edited April 22, 2016 by Thrylos

[nicksaviking]

 

This is an example of doing what you said you should not do

 

Nolasco and Hughes are the Twins best starters this season.  Nolasco has 2.64 FIP & 0.984 WHIP; Hughes 2.92 & 1.145.  

 

Last season Duffey had 3.24 FIP and 1.310 WHIP with the Twins.  In other words Duffey's best last season is worse than what these guys are doing right now.  Getting him up there instead of those 2 will hurt the team

 

In addition to Milone (who stinks) Gibson is having a pretty nasty start of the season.

 

Duffey is Rochester's 4th best maybe starter at this point.  Starters ranking there:  

 

Meyer 1.80 FIP, 0.87 WHIP
Berrios 2.71 FIP, 0.94 WHIP
Dean 3.58 FIP, 1.06 WHIP
Duffey 2.98 FIP, 1.40 WHIP

 

So there is no way that Duffey should be coming up north as a starter any time soon.

 

Furthermore, other than Milone, the rotation has not been an issue with the Twins this season.  They have bigger fish to fry, like finding a closer and at least another arm better than Jepsen, if they want to compete.

 

I don't care who the Twins best starters are right now, if and when this club is ever a contender, they aren't going to be the best starters then. Game-to-game and year-to-year Nolasco and Hughes are as inconsistent as starting pitchers come, inning-to-inning, that title might fall on Milone. You don't have to milk the cow until every last drop comes out, if it's nearly dried up and a new cow has a good chance of producing more, move on to the new one.

 

Also, why are you putting 100% of your Duffey evaluation on his unspectacular but still capable minor league numbers and 0% on his performance last year? Most folks would objectively say that earned him another good look.

 

Edit: I've never been on a farm, is that how cows work?

[alarp33]

 

Agreed.  Berrios is better than Milone right now.  My point is that Meyer is better than Berrios right now.

 

Here are the numbers of 2015 as a starter only vs 2014 for Meyer

 

Here are Meyer's 2014 and 2015 (as a starter) numbers:
2015 3.66 FIP, 1.91 WHIP, .??? BABIP (????nWHIP), 9.4 K/9, 5.4 BB/9
2014 3.66 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, .321 BABIP (1.24 nWHIP), 10.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9

 

Cannot calculate BABIP quickly to calculate normalized WHIP, but they are pretty darn close; I suspect that like his season numbers, WHIP is artificially driven high because of BABIP.  So if 2015 was a "disaster", 2014 should be one too   The Twins pulled the trigger to quickly on that one and moved him to the pen.  Mechanical problem that the pitching coach could not fix and he got the boot (they should have pulled that trigger faster, mid-season.)

 

Check Berrios' walks this season, btw

 

The babip was high, I see that in 2015.  The issue has always been his control, and I would say the obvious number that jumps out is a high 4.4 bb/9 jumps to 5.4 bb/9... that should be going the other way... 

 

Berrios has walked some guys this year... still has only 22 in his 92.2 AAA innings.  2 less than Meyer had in his 39 (starter) innings last year.  

 

If Meyer gets called up to replace Milone I would be ecstatic... I just think Berrios should be ahead in the pecking order  

 

(Unless of course neither are called up until June, because the Twins can't manage a roster, and Meyer is still cruising along at that point)

 

 

Edited April 22, 2016 by alarp33

[Thrylos]

 

I don't care who the Twins best starters are right now, if and when this club is ever a contender, they aren't going to be the best starters then. 

 

Last time I checked this club: a. was a contender last season and b. are not yet out of the race.

 

You got to play your best starters now in order to win now.  If Nolasco cools off, or performs like Milone, then you get rid of him.  I do not have a crystal ball to say that he will be hot or cold any time soon.  The point is that he is hot now and it is silly not to pitch him just in case he might cool off.  It is like sitting a guy with 20 games hitting streak because the likelihood is that the streak will get broken next time.

 

Duffey last season proved that he can pitch well the first time through an order (opponent OPS .446 innings 1-3), not that great the second time through (opponent OPS .810 innings 4-6), and pretty horribly the third (opponent OPS 1.320 innings 7+).   And that happened mostly after the rosters expanded.

 

Ideal profile for a reliever with 2 pitches, which is what he is.   If the Twins want to bring up Duffey and pop him in the pen instead of Fien/Tonkin, I'd be all for it.

 

Rotation, not that much, until he can prove he can go through an order at least twice with moderate success, which he has not done yet.

 

Edited April 22, 2016 by Thrylos

[tobi0040]

 

This is exactly what some of us feared, btw. The starters wouldn't be bad, but they wouldn't be good. And, the higher upside guys would use more pitches in the minors, and nothing here would really change. So far, that's what we've seen, imo.

 

Spot on Mike.  The second I saw us tender Milone, rather than trade him this was the obvious scenio.

 

I would not at all be surprised to see Meyer join the pen, like May.  I just wish these roster decisions were made with a lens on the next playoff team.  The games 1-2 starters are more likely to be Meyer, Berrios, and May and not guys like Milone or Nolasco.  So just get on with it.