Article: State Of The Bullpen

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins lost again on Wednesday night to fall to 4-11 on the still-young season. After starting 0-9, the team rattled off four straight wins before losing the last two days to Milwaukee. Just over a week ago, I wrote about the Twins bullpen failure during the first week of the season. Today, I am going to update you on how things have been going. It’s unfortunate that I didn’t do it a day earlier probably.

 

And let’s be honest, the bullpen is not the only reason that the Twins are struggling. The offense has at least started hitting for some power of late, but there have been many missed opportunities. Defensively, the team is a mess. Adding to that, the team’s closer, top utility man, and third baseman/clean-up hitter are injured.

 

But let’s get back to the bullpen. I wrote that it was unfortunate that I didn’t write this a day sooner. Why? Because last night, four Twins relievers entered the game and none of them really threw well. They certainly weren’t helped by their defense, but the results for each just isn’t where we, or they, would want them.But let’s take a step back first. I went into last week’s article wanting a stat that would tell me how often a relief pitcher came in and did his job.A simple, yes or no. Yes, there are similar stats such as FanGraphs' Shutdowns and Meltdowns. There may need to be an accounting for leverage. So, this isn’t a perfect stat, but what it does is says that when Paul Molitor calls a guy’s name, he did what was needed in that situation for the team. In theory, it may tell Molitor whether or not the pitcher should be relied upon.

 

THE FIRST SEVEN

Let’s start by looking back at the results we showed through seven games. This is through games played April 11.

 

Glen Perkins was 0/2 (0%).

Kevin Jepsen was ⅓ (33%)

Trevor May was 0/3 (0%).

Casey Fien was ⅓ (33%).

Ryan Pressly was ¾ (75%)

Michael Tonkin was 0/1 (0%)

Fernando Abad was 3/3 (100%)

Through seven games, the Twins bullpen combined to be 8/19 (42%) successful. I don’t know what a good number is, but I’m certain that 42% is not.

 

We also know that there is enough track record in the above group to know that it wouldn’t stay that bad forever. Even with Perkins going to the disabled list, it couldn’t stay that bad… Or could it?

 

THE NEXT SEVEN

So, let’s look at how the bullpen performed games eight through 14. Was it any better?

 

Kevin Jepsen was ¾ (75%).

Trevor May was ⅔ (67%)

Casey Fien was 2/2 (100%)

Ryan Pressly was 3/3 (100%)

Michael Tonkin was 3/3 (100%)

Fernando Abad was 3/3 (100%)

Taylor Rogers was 1/1 (100%)

Ryan O’Rourke was 2/2 (100%)

That certainly looks a lot better. In the second set of seven games, the Twins bullpen members were successful in 19 out of 21 opportunities. That’s 90.5% which I have to assume is very good.

 

Of course, as I mentioned above, four pitchers who were at 100% in the second week threw in last night’s game and went 0/4.

 

So, here is an update of how the Twins bullpen members have performed through the team’s first 15 games (includes Wednesday’s game too).

 

THROUGH 15 GAMES

 

Glen Perkins is 0/2 (0%)

Kevin Jepsen is 4/7 (57.1%)

Trevor May is 2/6 (33.3%)

Casey Fien is 3/6 (50.0%)

Ryan Pressly is 6/8 (75.0%)

Michael Tonkin is ⅗ (60.0%)

Fernando Abad is 6/6 (100%)

Taylor Rogers is 1/1 (100%)

Ryan O’Rourke is ⅔ (66.7%)

Overall, the team is now 27/44 (61.4%). Again, there is no real context to that number, though I still have to believe that a “good” number should be around 75%, but it may be higher.

 

If you want to factor in for leverage, clearly Perkins, Jepsen and May are being placed in the highest leverage situations, though we have seen Abad, Pressly and Fien in some as well. Last night, Michael Tonkin was placed in a bases-loaded, one out situation and it didn’t go well, but he was very successful when the Twins needed him to get Mike Trout and Albert Pujols out over the weekend.

 

Meanwhile, JT Chargois is sitting in Chattanooga, dominating AA hitters. He has faced 15 batters so far. He’s given up no hits, no walks, hasn’t hit a batter. No base runners through five outings. He’s also struck out nine batters. Nick Burdi is back in Chattanooga looking to get his season started off right. There are some options.

 

Bullpens, and relief pitchers, do have a tendency to be a bit streaky. It is rare to find relievers who are consistently good from year to year. Even within a season, it's normal to have good and bad stretches. It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out over the season. Who will step up and be more consistent, and how long will Terry Ryan be patient with some of these pitchers?

 

So, what do you think? Any further observations on the Twins bullpen? Do any of the numbers above surprise you?

 

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[HitInAPinch]

When I first brought up SD / MD it was because of my total disdain for Saves.  I admit I'm no expert on it, not even close.  There's a lot of moving parts to it.  FanGraphs does supply a graph:

 

Rating                  SD    MD
Excellent               40    2
Great                    35    4
Above Average     25    6
Average                20    8
Below Average     15    10
Poor                     10    12
Awful                      5    15

 

Stinking Firefox formating....

 

[Blake]

I've seen a couple of things things happening that I think are affecting the Twins. One of which I'm not sure can be fixed.

 

It looks to me like the strike zone has been wildly inconsistent. An inconsistent strike zone along with pitchers who need to hit their spots and get consistent calls is a recipe for disaster.

 

Couple an inconsistent zone with inexperienced players who don't know how or are not coached to take professional at bats and I see a recipe for disaster.

 

Obviously, I'm not excusing pitchers throwing belt-high fastballs. However, when they're not getting calls it makes things tough. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

It looks to me like the strike zone has been wildly inconsistent. An inconsistent strike zone along with pitchers who need to hit their spots and get consistent calls is a recipe for disaster.

Agreed. There are no stats to back it up and its entirely subjective but I have seen insane strike zones for both the Twins and their opponents in a bunch of games. Hopefully the umps will settle down a bit? :-)

[Mike Frasier Law]

 

When I first brought up SD / MD it was because of my total disdain for Saves.  I admit I'm no expert on it, not even close.  There's a lot of moving parts to it.  FanGraphs does supply a graph:

 

Rating                  SD    MD
Excellent               40    2
Great                    35    4
Above Average     25    6
Average                20    8
Below Average     15    10
Poor                     10    12
Awful                      5    15

 

Stinking Firefox formating....

 

So 71% is average, 81% is above average, 90% is great, 95% is excellent.

 

This is helpful context.

[Blake]

 

Agreed. There are no stats to back it up and its entirely subjective but I have seen insane strike zones for both the Twins and their opponents in a bunch of games. Hopefully the umps will settle down a bit? :-)

Watching the game last night, I saw a Twins pitcher clearly catch, and Foxtracks backed it up, the low outside corner of the plate. (I don't remember which pitcher) If memory serves, that missed call, and it wasn't really even close, lead to a walk or maybe a run. Just one example.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Watching the game last night, I saw a Twins pitcher clearly catch, and Foxtracks backed it up, the low outside corner of the plate. (I don't remember which pitcher) If memory serves, that missed call, and it wasn't really even close, lead to a walk or maybe a run. Just one example.  

 

Yeah. Tonkin got squeezed on that Braun at bat where he eventually walked him too.

 

And to not be one-sided or biased, Sano's 4th ball on a 3-0 count was one of the most criminal calls I've ever seen. It wasn't even borderline, it was just a strike.* My wife who thinks baseball is as interesting as golf (hint: not interesting) was watching for once and she laughed out loud when it was called a ball. Insane in the membrane. 

 

* Loving the new/old Arcia but he immediately swung at the first pitch after a reliever came in and walked the bases loaded with an ump who clearly had a schizophrenic strike zone in calling a 4 pitch walk. C'mon man, take that first pitch!

[Blake]

 

Yeah. Tonkin got squeezed on that Braun at bat where he eventually walked him too.

 

And to not be one-sided or biased, Sano's 4th ball on a 3-0 count was one of the most criminal calls I've ever seen. It wasn't even borderline, it was just a strike.* My wife who thinks baseball is as interesting as golf (hint: not interesting) was watching for once and she laughed out loud when it was called a ball. Insane in the membrane. 

 

* Loving the new/old Arcia but he immediately swung at the first pitch after a reliever came in and walked the bases loaded with an ump who clearly had a schizophrenic strike zone in calling a 4 pitch walk. C'mon man, take that first pitch!

Yeah the strike zone issue is where the lack of professional at-bats is hurting. None of this excuses Arcia's blunders in the outfield, however. Nor does it excuse Dozier not running out the ground ball.

 

As much as I'd like to rip Twins pitching, the schizophrenic strike zone, coupled with poor defense, just cannot be overlooked in the whole mess.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 Nor does it excuse Dozier not running out the ground ball.

 

 

Nunez did that on Tuesday too. The Twins have the depth to bench guys who do that, Molly needs to get on that.

[alarp33]

 

Watching the game last night, I saw a Twins pitcher clearly catch, and Foxtracks backed it up, the low outside corner of the plate. (I don't remember which pitcher) If memory serves, that missed call, and it wasn't really even close, lead to a walk or maybe a run. Just one example.  

 

You're thinking of Milone to their pitcher I believe... it was an awful call, caught all of the plate.. he did strike him out on the next pitch though

[Boom Boom]

Maybe there was some bad umpiring behind the plate... but the opponents had to deal with that, too.

 

If you think the Twins pitchers are being jobbed by the officials, watch what kind of strike zone the other guys are getting. You might have missed some bad calls going the other way.

[tobi0040]

If we go back and look at all the balls and strikes, I am guessing the Twins have not been any more hosed than the other teams.  The games I have seen have been extremely inconsistent on both sides.  Time to let the machines do the work, versus having a human make a call, then immediately use the machine to show the viewers how wrong the call was. And at the same time we can get rid of the ridiculous "the ump is giving away today, or low and outside".  The two innings it takes to figure out what the rules of the day are.

 

Our pen is struggling because we don't have good pitchers in it.  The "top 3" guys have had 6 good outings out of 15.

 

I expect the hitting to get better, but the pen should not really improve.  It will be a tragedy if guys like Berrios or Meyer are moved back there this year because TR didn't make any moves.

 

Those two should be replacing Nolasco and Milone.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Those two should be replacing Nolasco and Milone.

Actually Milone might be a good bullpen addition given his BAA disparity on 1st time through lineup against 2nd/3rd times

[tobi0040]

 

Actually Milone might be a good bullpen addition given his BAA disparity on 1st time through lineup against 2nd/3rd times

 

He very well could be.  I am willing to let Milone and Nolasco give it a rip in the pen.   As I see it, the best pen addition this year will be Chargois, but he has a total of 5 IP in AA.  So probably not imminent.

Edited April 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As I see it, the best pen addition this year will be Chargois, but he has a total of 5 IP in AA.  So probably not imminent.

Actually, Chargois had 33 IP in AA last year too (plus another ~5 IP in the AA playoffs).

 

Hopefully if his fast start is for real, he will be promoted soon, at least to AAA.

Edited April 21, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

Actually, Chargois had 33 IP in AA last year too (plus another ~5 IP in the AA playoffs).

 

Hopefully if his fast start is for real, he will be promoted soon, at least to AAA.

3.27 ERA last year with 9.3 k per 9. Time for a modest promo to AAA

 

Don't really care about his 5.5 BB per 9 last year. Our pen is at 5 this year. We need better stuff up here.

Edited April 21, 2016 by tobi0040

[Thrylos]

My take is the same that it was this off-season:

For the Twins to compete, they need at least 2 arms better than Perkins and Jepsen.

Chargois and Burdi could be them.  I'd take Chargois over Fien right now.  5 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 9 K should be rewarded.  Fien has an option.  Matter of fact, I trust Chargois more than I trust Jepsen.  Melotakis should not be down for long either.  He is pitching way better than his .700some BABIP-inflated stats suggest.

 

The other thing is bad use of pitchers.  Molitor should write on a blackboard 1000 times: Do not use O'Rourke against RHBs.   Doing so is purely inane.

 

Is this the bullpen of a contender?  No way.   But at this point the Twins are not contenders but have the worst record in baseball.  No wonder Ryan is at Rochester trying to get help ASAP

 

[tobi0040]

Yup. We needed two arms. More of the same in Rochester.

[Seth Stohs]

 

So 71% is average, 81% is above average, 90% is great, 95% is excellent.

 

This is helpful context.

 

But those numbers (shutdown and meltdown) are only populated if a guy pitches to certain levels (good or bad). My chart shows every outing for the player. I think that's the main difference.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Actually, Chargois had 33 IP in AA last year too (plus another ~5 IP in the AA playoffs).

 

Hopefully if his fast start is for real, he will be promoted soon, at least to AAA.

 

We know that Burdi is with Chattanooga right now, so he should be added to their roster soon. I'm thinking when Burdi is added, Chargois could move up to Rochester... or the Twins. 

[Rosterman]

Bad use of the bullpen. Jepsen in a tie game. Using guys to face a couple of outs ONLY. Is there no long-man pick-me-up guy. Who is the closer if you overuse your closer. Do we need two short left-handed guys. Bring back Rogers, or move Milone to the bullpen...for now.

 

Will be interesting to see how soon Chargolis will slip into the mix. Will he need time at AAA (Van Mil switchout?). But then you have Strong that needs to do something at AA, too.

 

 

[NoCal]

The entire new stat of "pitch framing" as a way to evaluate catchers is simply a product of umpires not having the ability to consistently call balls and strikes when the ball is traveling and moving like it does in the major leagues. More precisely, human beings do not have that ability. It seems to me that if we have the technology to talk about pitch framing, then we have the technology to call balls and strikes in real time in a ball game. It may remove some of the romance from the game, but I think that it is inevitable that electronic pitch calling is in the fairly near future. Then hitters like Maurer and Joey Votto will justly be rewarded for their great skill in knowing the strike zone, and catchers will not be lauded for their ability to fool the ump. 

[DocBauer]

I don't believe in machines calling balls and strikes any more than I believe in machines calling pass interference or any other penalty in football. There is a human element to the way the game is played on the field...an inch or two can make the difference of a caught ball or a hit, a foul ball or a double down the line.

 

Almost every single hitter at the plate has a different stance, even proximity in the batterbox, compared to every other batter before and after. Thus, the strike zone, to a degree, changes. And if you have a pitcher, a Maddux for example, that can have pin point control enough to paint a corner right on the black consistently, then I still don't have a problem with that consisfently, even borderline, being called a strike. As long as the calls are consistent. But that is where the problem lies.

 

With the exception of said pin point control being somewhat arbitrary, the strike zone, even for different batters, is still rather clearly defined...and always has been! Human error be damned, a missed call or two will almost certainly balance out for all teams. But it is the blatant disregard for the rules based on personal bias as to what is a strike, or worse, consistent incomletance, that is the root of a problem.

 

Sticking strictly with baseball as a referencd, if a player can't perform as ended or expected, he is benched or optioned down. Why is this not also an option for umpires? The MLBPA has had tremendous power for decades, though that power has eroded ever so slightly the past few years. Despite some attempts at strong armed tactics, the ML umpire association has not been nearly as powerful, despite their belief that they are.

 

The standards are set by regulation. The umpires, their overseers and their union should understand this, and have the capability to review and regulate such standards. There should be no open, personal interpretation of said regulations, for the most part, as there are actual rules and parameters to follow. This is not a professorship...anot entirely different subject matter and debate...and there should be no tenure. I would think it more prudent, any my preference, for any umpire that doesn't make muster to be demoted or removed in favor of a milb, college, or other umpire to receive an opportunity to show his abilities on a promotional or trial basis. (Yes, I exagerate...but only somewhat)

 

Even as complicated as the NFL is in rules interpretation and enforcement, (and this also has probably as many faulty outliers as ML umpires), at least there are reviews and ramifications for performance leading to removal, removal from top games, and a reward system for only top crews to referee top games, playoffs and the Super Bowl. I think it's way past time that MLB step in and do something about umpires and crews that just can't consistently get things right. Being an umpire may be a thankless job in many respects, but it is a PROFESSIONAL occupation. And there is a difference between human error and incompetance.

[Linus]

Nolasco can't go to the pen as he is our best starter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bad use of the bullpen. Jepsen in a tie game. Using guys to face a couple of outs ONLY. Is there no long-man pick-me-up guy. Who is the closer if you overuse your closer. Do we need two short left-handed guys. Bring back Rogers, or move Milone to the bullpen...for now.

 

Will be interesting to see how soon Chargolis will slip into the mix. Will he need time at AAA (Van Mil switchout?). But then you have Strong that needs to do something at AA, too.

How is using your best relievers in a tie game at home bad managing? That's not only common practice, it's common sense.

 

Get the outs, try to win in the bottom of the inning. At home, you work the pen backwards from the ninth inning onward.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't believe in machines calling balls and strikes any more than I believe in machines calling pass interference or any other penalty in football. There is a human element to the way the game is played on the field...an inch or two can make the difference of a caught ball or a hit, a foul ball or a double down the line.

Almost every single hitter at the plate has a different stance, even proximity in the batterbox, compared to every other batter before and after. Thus, the strike zone, to a degree, changes. And if you have a pitcher, a Maddux for example, that can have pin point control enough to paint a corner right on the black consistently, then I still don't have a problem with that consisfently, even borderline, being called a strike. As long as the calls are consistent. But that is where the problem lies.

With the exception of said pin point control being somewhat arbitrary, the strike zone, even for different batters, is still rather clearly defined...and always has been! Human error be damned, a missed call or two will almost certainly balance out for all teams. But it is the blatant disregard for the rules based on personal bias as to what is a strike, or worse, consistent incomletance, that is the root of a problem.

Sticking strictly with baseball as a referencd, if a player can't perform as ended or expected, he is benched or optioned down. Why is this not also an option for umpires? The MLBPA has had tremendous power for decades, though that power has eroded ever so slightly the past few years. Despite some attempts at strong armed tactics, the ML umpire association has not been nearly as powerful, despite their belief that they are.

The standards are set by regulation. The umpires, their overseers and their union should understand this, and have the capability to review and regulate such standards. There should be no open, personal interpretation of said regulations, for the most part, as there are actual rules and parameters to follow. This is not a professorship...anot entirely different subject matter and debate...and there should be no tenure. I would think it more prudent, any my preference, for any umpire that doesn't make muster to be demoted or removed in favor of a milb, college, or other umpire to receive an opportunity to show his abilities on a promotional or trial basis. (Yes, I exagerate...but only somewhat)

Even as complicated as the NFL is in rules interpretation and enforcement, (and this also has probably as many faulty outliers as ML umpires), at least there are reviews and ramifications for performance leading to removal, removal from top games, and a reward system for only top crews to referee top games, playoffs and the Super Bowl. I think it's way past time that MLB step in and do something about umpires and crews that just can't consistently get things right. Being an umpire may be a thankless job in many respects, but it is a PROFESSIONAL occupation. And there is a difference between human error and incompetance.

 

This is something that I think eventually gets changed.  The most important thing to me is getting the calls right.  So much of the frustration in this game is completely un-necessary.  Guys getting pissed about where the strike zone is, you called the pitch outside for them and not for us.  The whole feeling out period every game to see “what the ump will give you”.    And I think balls and strikes are an area where technology is going to get it right literally 99.99% of the time.  The umps miss all the time.  Unlike pass interference, this is more cut and dry.  The plate width and player height are known.  Pass interference is something where you need to make a judgement call.  Some touching is allowed.  If it is going both ways they usually don’t call it.  If the ball was not catch-able they don’t call it, etc.

 

Maybe some happy medium here is you still have a real grumpy old guy behind the plate with an earpiece.  After each pitch the earpiece tells him ball or strike.  If someone complains, he can still act like a child, freak out, start swearing and throw them out of the game.

Edited April 22, 2016 by tobi0040

[Darius]

Is it really a big surprise to anyone that is bullpen is one of the worst in the game? None of these guys have ever been that good (with the exception of Perkins, who is now two years removed from a full season of relevance as a closer).

 

It's just awful roster management, which has been a recurring issue from this front office for two decades.

[bluechipper]

It looks like the Twins tried to acquire Justin Wilson, and were surprised when the Yankees accepted the Tigers offer instead of their "aggressive" offer. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/al-pitcher-notes-wilson-skaggs-greene.html

 

That would have been a nice get, although I definitely can't complain with the way Fernando Abad has been pitching.