Article: Joe Mauer Is Already A (Specific) Hall of Fame Catcher

[Bill Parker]

A couple of months ago, the Baseball Hall of Fame introduced Mike Piazza as one of its two newest inductees, and it was natural for some to wonder whether Joe Mauer, the other great hitting catcher of recent memory, was likely to join him someday.

 

It’s a bit of a forced comparison, though, as everyone recognized. You couldn’t find two more different great players who played the same position. One bats right handed, one left; one topped 30 home runs nine times, one’s topped 10 home runs only five; one spent his career relentlessly maligned (fairly or not) for his lack of defense, while one won three Gold Gloves at catcher; one anchored himself to a base and hoped for three straight walks or a homer, while the other is a (slow but) savvy and net-positive baserunner. Piazza matched Mauer’s .395 career on-base percentage in only four full seasons, while Mauer has equaled Piazza’s .545 career slugging percentage just once. It’s like comparing chocolate and beer. They’re both great, but for completely different, mostly incompatible reasons.

 

There is, on the other hand, a Hall of Fame catcher who does compare very closely, and favorably, to Mauer, right now. His name isn’t as sexy to modern audiences, but he was great, and the comparison is kind of uncanny.

 

Let’s talk about Mickey Cochrane.Cochrane was a Massachusetts native and a left-handed hitter who debuted with the Philadelphia Athletics in 1925, at age 22. He hit .331/.397/.448 as a rookie, and finished 10th in the MVP race (though it’s worth pointing out that offense was so ridiculous in the twenties that that line, which would be the stuff of MVP talk now or even a few years ago, was good for a 108 OPS+). After a slight dip the following year, Cochrane took over as probably the best catcher in the game, year in and year out, from 1927 through 1935, his age-32 season. For those nine seasons, Cochrane started an average of 122 games a year, all at catcher, batting .322/.423/.490, good even in those heady days for a 134 OPS+, in 4,980 plate appearances. He won two MVP awards--one in 1928 with the Athletics, one in 1934 with the Tigers (who he also managed)--and was known as an excellent defensive catcher. The All-Star Game didn’t exist until 1933, and Cochrane lost out to fellow Hall of Famers Rick Ferrell and Bill Dickey that first year, but was selected in ‘34 and ‘35.

 

While he played only 71 games over the next two seasons and suffered a head injury from a hit-by-pitch in May 1937 that ended his career at just 34, Cochrane was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA in 1947, with 79.5% of the vote. At the end of the last millennium, he was (perhaps kindly) listed 65th on The Sporting News’ list of the 100 greatest baseball players.

 

Mauer, it turns out, has had similar success, for similar reasons. From 2006-2013, Mauer put together an eight-year stretch that looks a lot like Cocrhane’s 9-year run: .327/.410/.473 (139 OPS+), catching an average of just 93 games a year thanks to the availability of the DH and his ability to play first, but playing an average of 126 of them, winning an MVP award and making six All-Star teams. In all, adjusting for eras and such, Cochrane probably had (even) more patience than Mauer and (even) less home run power, but the parallels between the two are astounding. Some selected career numbers (with Mauer’s through Monday the 18th), with the most fun parts highlighted:

 

http://i.imgur.com/xiwXJaM.png

 

They’re lefty-hitting catchers with good defensive reputations who hit for high averages, drew walks and had gap power. Both had one season where they uncharacteristically hit home runs (Cochrane had 23 in 1932, while Mauer, of course, hit those 28 in 2009), and altogether have matched each other in that category almost exactly. Maybe most interestingly, and certainly most importantly: Cochrane played in an era when it was a lot easier to get on base and score runs, but adjusting for that, Mauer has been exactly as effective with the bat as Cochrane was, in about a hundred more plate appearances than Cochrane got for his whole career. Cochrane remains a bit ahead on both common measures of WAR--largely driven by the fact that Mauer gets a significant negative position adjustment from spending time at first and left, whereas 5 innings in left in 1932 represented the whole of Cochrane’s career non-catching experience--but Mauer could well catch him this season, or next.

 

Cochrane has those two MVP awards to Mauer’s one, of course, though with only eight teams in the American League, he faced almost literally half the competition Mauer has, and it’s worth noting that in both of Cochrane’s MVP years, he accumulated just 4.0 WAR, so Mauer was nearly as valuable in his one MVP year (7.8 WAR) as Cochrane was in both of his. Mauer also had solid cases to win the award in 2006 and/or 2008.

 

Then, there’s the thing I haven’t mentioned yet: Cochrane played in five World Series (three with the Athletics, two with the Tigers), and his teams won three of them. He didn’t play particularly well in the postseason, overall, and it was a lot easier to make the Series back then for essentially the same reason it was easier to win an MVP, but anyway, there’s no denying that five Series appearances in just 11 full seasons was a major part of Cochrane’s resume, and one that Mauer can’t compete with.

Anyway, there’s no real doubt that Cochrane is a better Hall candidate, and overall player, right now, than Mauer, whether on the numbers alone or with the superlatives. The thing is that it’s close--very, kind of eerily close, right at the moment--and Cochrane’s career was essentially over at Mauer’s age, so whatever Joe contributes from here on out is gravy. Mauer has already essentially had a full career as a Hall of Fame catcher, plus whatever he adds from here on out.

 

Even with Piazza, there are only thirteen Major League catchers in the Hall of Fame--and frankly, at least three of them were mistakes (Ferrell, Roger Bresnahan, and Ray Schalk, all with significantly less career WAR than Mauer already has). I think that this is a wrong that needs correcting, and along with Ivan Rodriguez, I would put in Ted Simmons, Bill Freehan and maybe Jorge Posada. I’d also put Mauer in, even if he retired tomorrow. He wouldn’t get in, of course--but I think the comparison to Cochrane shows that he’s a lot closer, based on historical standards, than people typically think. Who knows what the BBWAA will do anymore, but a couple more solid years really should be enough to seal his induction, eventually.

 

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[mikelink45]

Nice comparison! Without a doubt his concussion has cost him and he needs a few good post catcher years to get back in the run for HOF.  Modern era comparisons to players like Cochrane are great for those of us who look back at early baseball, but I am not sure that computes for the voters any more.

[KGB]

My question would be at the end of Mauer career, can you really consider his career as a catcher primary?  He probably going to play more games at other postions and be at least 50% less games at catcher than other HOF catchers.

                                      Games at Catcher

Mauer                                         920

Cochrane                                  1,451

Piazza                                       1,602

 

Craig Biggio is closer to Mauer as a catcher, then he is to the other HOF catchers.

[Steve Lein]

If Joe is really back, and continues to be his old self and avoid the injury bug, this is probably moot, but Mauer's entire HOF case right now is built on what he did offensively (and defensively to an extent) as a catcher.

 

Guys like him just don't exist at that position.

 

Unfortunately, he's not a catcher anymore, and when it's all said and done he's going to end up having played other positions more than he ever caught. At that point I think any "catcher" argument for the HOF loses all it's credibility and most of it's relevance.

 

Like KGB says, he just didn't play the position enough in comparison to his potential HOF peers.

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

Comparing modern era numbers with those of the 20s makes absolutely no sense.   In 1927 the league average slash line was .292/.354/.411 whereas in 2015 was .254/.317/.405.   I just find it hard to believe that they both have the same OPS+ with such different baselines.  Or likely, OPS+ fails when comparing eons apart

 

Yes, Mauer was a better hitter in his time than Cochrane was in his...

[Bill Parker]

I don't think this argument (KGB's and Steve's) holds a lot of water. Mauer will go down as a catcher. He's 11th in WAR among guys who spent 50% of their time as catchers, but if you drop that down to 35% (probably the outer limit of where he might end up), he falls all the way to 12th--only Joe Torre, who certainly should have gone into the Hall as a player, jumps in there ahead of him. Mauer will likely move into the top 10 of either list this year or next. Guys just don't generally catch as much as Mauer did and accomplish what he did, and when they do that plus other stuff, they generally end up in the Hall (or should). 

[clutterheart]

Mauer has played 920 games at catcher 

Cochrane played 1,451 games at catcher

 

Thats a big distinction. 

[Bill Parker]

And, I should note, WAR corrects for that. If Mauer had caught virtually every game of his career to this point as Cochrane did, and all else remained the same, he'd be well ahead of Cochrane (and a bunch of other guys) by now. He gets penalized for playing 1B or DH. So it's not like it's somehow unfair to compare Mauer to other catchers because he hasn't caught quite as often.

[KGB]

 

And, I should note, WAR corrects for that. If Mauer had caught virtually every game of his career to this point as Cochrane did, and all else remained the same, he'd be well ahead of Cochrane (and a bunch of other guys) by now. He gets penalized for playing 1B or DH. So it's not like it's somehow unfair to compare Mauer to other catchers because he hasn't caught quite as often.

So if WAR is a driving factor, shouldn't we also compare him to non-HOF's also, like Gene Tenace

 

                                      WAR           wRC+      OBP

Mauer                             45.7             128        .395

Tenace                           45.0              140       .388

 

I would like to see Mauer get into the HOF, but I he going to need a few more productive years if he wants to get there. 

[Seth Stohs]

Of course Mauer will go down and be known as a catcher...

 

Consider Ernie Banks is still considered one of the best shortstops, but he played more games at 1B in  his career. 

 

Mauer will always be known as a catcher. That's why I think there's still a good chance he gets into the Hall. If not, I think he'll be on the ballot every year, or should be. Never know with the voters though. I thought Lou Whitaker was a borderline Hall of Famer and he didn't get 5% in his first time on the ballot.

[KGB]

 

Of course Mauer will go down and be known as a catcher...

 

Consider Ernie Banks is still considered one of the best shortstops, but he played more games at 1B in  his career. 

 

Mauer will always be known as a catcher. That's why I think there's still a good chance he gets into the Hall. If not, I think he'll be on the ballot every year, or should be. Never know with the voters though. I thought Lou Whitaker was a borderline Hall of Famer and he didn't get 5% in his first time on the ballot.

I'm don't think Ernie Banks is universally consider a shortstop.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1960647-ranking-the-10-greatest-shortstops-in-mlb-history#articles/1960647-ranking-the-10-greatest-shortstops-in-mlb-history

 

But even if you consider Mauer's average of 92 catching games a year over his catching career his primary position, you have to remember the HOF isn't looking to fill a roster and catcher have not faired very well in the voting.  Here's a listing of catchers around Mauer's WAR and HOF voting percentage:

 

                                                WAR               HOF %

Ted Simmons                          54.2                 3.7%

Brian Downing                         48.4                 0.4%

Joe Mauer                                45.7

Gene Tenace                           45.0                 0.2%

Bill Freehan                              44.8                 0.5%

 

I would expect Mauer to do better (probably more borderline like Oliva), but I think a he needs a few more good years to give him a shot at the HOF.

[bluechipper]

I'm don't think Ernie Banks is universally consider a shortstop.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1960647-ranking-the-10-greatest-shortstops-in-mlb-history#articles/1960647-ranking-the-10-greatest-shortstops-in-mlb-history

 

But even if you consider Mauer's average of 92 catching games a year over his catching career his primary position, you have to remember the HOF isn't looking to fill a roster and catcher have not faired very well in the voting.  Here's a listing of catchers around Mauer's WAR and HOF voting percentage:

 

                                                WAR               HOF %

Ted Simmons                          54.2                 3.7%

Brian Downing                         48.4                 0.4%

Joe Mauer                                45.7

Gene Tenace                           45.0                 0.2%

Bill Freehan                              44.8                 0.5%

 

I would expect Mauer to do better (probably more borderline like Oliva), but I think a he needs a few more good years to give him a shot at the HOF.

It should be noted that the batting titles and MVP gives Mauer a huge boost over the guys you listed.

[dbminn]

Sabernerds have been using two different WAR calculations as a first-cut for HOF status: Lifetime WAR and 7-Year WAR (seven best consecutive years). Mauer has the fifth largest 7-year WAR for catchers and has already accumulated a career catcher WAR that is comparable to the HOF class. Add in his batting titles, MVP and gold gloves and it looks like he should have a pretty good chance to get in. Not likely on the first ballot.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

So if WAR is a driving factor, shouldn't we also compare him to non-HOF's also, like Gene Tenace

 

                                      WAR           wRC+      OBP

Mauer                             45.7             128        .395

Tenace                           45.0              140       .388

 

I would like to see Mauer get into the HOF, but I he going to need a few more productive years if he wants to get there. 

 

As in, Gene Tenace at the plate?

 

[KGB]

 

 

Sabernerds have been using two different WAR calculations as a first-cut for HOF status: Lifetime WAR and 7-Year WAR (seven best consecutive years). Mauer has the fifth largest 7-year WAR for catchers and has already accumulated a career catcher WAR that is comparable to the HOF class. Add in his batting titles, MVP and gold gloves and it looks like he should have a pretty good chance to get in. Not likely on the first ballot.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml

 

The other HOF indicator are not as favorable.  The JAWS system uses only best 7 years which is about 80% of Mauer's career WAR.  That's much higher than the other players.

 

The batting titles & MVP will help but I think WS & market size also play a roll in voting.  I hope I'm wrong but I think he going to have a tough road to get to the HOF

 

[REPETE]

I'm still stuck on how beer & chocolate aren't compatible.  Two great tastes that taste great together!  I defy you to dislike Mich Golden Light & M&Ms together.

I think if Mauer puts together a couple more .300 averages, he's in.

[Boom Boom]

And, I should note, WAR corrects for that. If Mauer had caught virtually every game of his career to this point as Cochrane did, and all else remained the same, he'd be well ahead of Cochrane (and a bunch of other guys) by now. He gets penalized for playing 1B or DH. So it's not like it's somehow unfair to compare Mauer to other catchers because he hasn't caught quite as often.

Is it fair to compare Cochrane to Mauer, though? If Cochrane had some of those day games after night games off, if he could have DHed a little, and if his manager didn't abuse him as was the fashion at the time, would he have been a significantly better player than he was?

[deanlambrecht]

 

Comparing modern era numbers with those of the 20s makes absolutely no sense.   In 1927 the league average slash line was .292/.354/.411 whereas in 2015 was .254/.317/.405.   I just find it hard to believe that they both have the same OPS+ with such different baselines.  Or likely, OPS+ fails when comparing eons apart

 

Yes, Mauer was a better hitter in his time than Cochrane was in his...

 

That is an extremely pedantic comment.   The author plainly qualified the comparison and showed how it remains apt despite not being a 1:1 comparison.

 

The author's article was altogether the type of writing that makes TwinsDaily a very good site for all things Twins.

[Pius Jefferson]

I think Mauer is in a really tough spot. His peak was deserving without question but it was 10 years and he's probably going to play for another 8 to 10 years. If the old Joe is back even a little than that helps but playing 1B and DH the counting numbers probably need to be better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If Joe wins another batting title, he's a lock. If Joe has 2-3 more .300 batting average seasons, he's a lock.

 

Right now, he's a maybe.