Article: One Step Backward

[Nick Nelson]

At one of his pregame lunchroom press scrums on a mid-March day in Fort Myers, Terry Ryan was asked about his level of concern with the young and inexperienced players who would figure prominently into the team's plans this year.

 

"I worry about almost every guy that comes up here," the GM said. "They have instant success and things are looking good. Sometimes when guys come back it doesn't fall into place, it starts to unravel a bit. We send them back."Ryan obviously has a lot of faith in his youthful core, and with good reason. But he's been doing this long enough to recognize that things don't always play out according to plan.

 

"Every guy that's come through here with the exception of maybe a handful in the last 20 years has had to go back. Mauer didn't go back. Knoblauch didn't go back. Those types of guys."

 

Of course, we'd all like to believe that transcendent talents like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are "those types of guys," but Ryan pointed to a number of players who needed to be sent back to the minors after their initial call-up – sometimes multiple times – before going on to have long and successful big-league careers. Included on that list are names like Torii Hunter, Corey Koskie and LaTroy Hawkins. A.J. Pierzynski shuttled back and forth between the minors and majors repeatedly back in the late '90s, and he's still playing today.

 

So as we watch Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and even Byung Ho Park scuffle along, it's important to keep in mind that a step backward is sometimes required before taking two steps forward. I have a hard time envisioning a demotion for Sano but with the other three it's quickly going to become a consideration as the uncompetitive at-bats pile up.

 

On a larger scale, it's looking like the Twins, as a team, will need to take a step backward before they can move forward. They've dug themselves a deep hole at the start of the season and being forced to send down one or more of their key young players, while replacing them with mediocrities like David Murphy, would almost surely peg this year as a developmental one aimed toward getting everything in place for a 2017 run.

 

Perhaps that was always the most realistic outcome given the level of inexperience on the roster, but one can hardly be blamed for being impatient after a five-year playoff drought, or for feeling optimistic in light of the elite abilities of these admittedly green youngsters.

 

Unfortunately, it looks like they're just not there yet, and neither are the Twins.

 

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[blindeke]

Yeah these at-bats are bumming me out. I know they can do better!

[Darius]

If these guys "always have to be sent back" you have an organizational problem. Stop the BS lip service, do your job, and fix it.

 

Can't wait to hear what TRs excuses are in 2017. Then 2018, 2019, 2020....and so on. Of course, it's never: "Truthfully, I made some really bad decisions, again, and would like to take some responsibility for this train wreck.....again."

[Jgcarew]

I used to think the talk of Buxton being injury prone was foolish. He's still pressing. His head isn't in the game. Few people get hit by that pitch. That's just an opinion. Of course if it was me, I'd have ducked and gotten hit in the head.

[Radke's Change]

The funning thing right now is that I'm far happier with where the team is now at 0-9 with lots of high upside struggling youth than just about any Twins team in the last 5 years. Talent takes time to develop, pump the breaks and recognize the process. Hopefully in a year or two we can appreciate some 9-0 stretches.

[Radke's Change]

The other super awesome thing about this team is who we have been able to plug holes with. It was very discouraging to hear about santana and perk this early in the season but it gives us an opportunity to take a look at some players that could be very important 5 or 6 seasons from now. In the past those spots would have been given to Phil Dumatrait and Clete Thomas types. Now we get to enjoy the young controllable envy of the league. Success will come!

[Dantes929]

 

The funning thing right now is that I'm far happier with where the team is now at 0-9 with lots of high upside struggling youth than just about any Twins team in the last 5 years. Talent takes time to develop, pump the breaks and recognize the process. Hopefully in a year or two we can appreciate some 9-0 stretches.

I am hoping for it this year.   If our pitching stays the same I expect it.    I said they might as lose 9 in a row and then win the world series, setting a new standard for teams that are slow out of the gate.    Seriously, I have followed this team for a long time and these boards as long.   10 days can make a huge difference in how we see this team.    Go 7-3 and the outlook will be different.  

[nytwinsfan]

If they are going to demote Park, they should demote Plouffe, Dozier and Suzuki as well, all of whom have significantly lower OPS than Park.

 

I'm only half serious obviously, but Dozier and Plouffe have been striking out at almost the same rate as Buxton, Park and Sano. This isn't a "rookie" problem. It is a team wide hitting problem, with the exception of Mauer, Escobar and Nunez. To blame it "on the young players" isn't fair.

[clutterheart]

 

Perhaps that was always the most realistic outcome given the level of inexperience on the roster, but one can hardly be blamed for being impatient after a five-year playoff drought, or for feeling optimistic in light of the elite abilities of these admittedly green youngsters.

 

You're not trying to give the Twins FO a pass because of "inexperience" on this roster for the start of the season are you?  This line up is not young nor is it inexperienced.  The line up has a good mix of youth, guys in their prime and inexperience and experience.  

Suzuki - Age 33 1108 G . 

Dozier - Age 29 553 G 

Escobar - Age 27 394 

Plouffe - Age 30 3643 G

Mauer - 33 1465 G

 

[Comrade Bork]

But why can't our guys come up and stomp right away like Trout and Harper. So unfair.

[bird]

 

You're not trying to give the Twins FO a pass because of "inexperience" on this roster for the start of the season are you?  This line up is not young nor is it inexperienced.  The line up has a good mix of youth, guys in their prime and inexperience and experience.  

Suzuki - Age 33 1108 G . 

Dozier - Age 29 553 G 

Escobar - Age 27 394 

Plouffe - Age 30 3643 G

Mauer - 33 1465 G

 

I'm very interested in hearing about which of these players you believe the FO is receiving an undeserved free pass.

 

I so often find myself wondering why the discussion isn't more often skewed toward the performance of the players instead of the FO? Or even the hitting coach or manager? 

 

Not picking on you, but while we're at it, we might address an earlier post about excuses related to Ryan's bad decisions that used Sano, Buxton, and others as the apparent examples. Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan.....

[Twinfan & Dad]

When you assemble a flawed free swinging group that TR has what do you expect. 7 of 9 hitters in the line-up have struck out more than the norm in prior years so all of the sudden this is going to change? Come on TR, accept responsibility for your failure in the group you have hand picked. If you can't do better then step down and let's look outside the organization for a new direction that can move the Twins and their youth to success.

[Nick Nelson]

 

If they are going to demote Park, they should demote Plouffe, Dozier and Suzuki as well, all of whom have significantly lower OPS than Park.

 

I'm only half serious obviously, but Dozier and Plouffe have been striking out at almost the same rate as Buxton, Park and Sano. This isn't a "rookie" problem. It is a team wide hitting problem, with the exception of Mauer, Escobar and Nunez. To blame it "on the young players" isn't fair.

I mean, that simply isn't true. Dozier has 9 K in 39 PA (23% K-rate). Plouffe has 8 K in 32 PA (25%). Those are reasonable strikeout rates for a major-league ballplayer. Buxton, Park and Sano are all at 44+ percent, which is not, and beyond the stats, it is the quality of ABs. Like I said, they've been largely uncompetitive.

 

The intent of this article is not to "blame" the young players, but rather to point out that it appears some may need to be sent back because they're not ready. Are you suggesting that Dozier and Plouffe should be sent to Triple-A?

[Nick Nelson]

 

You're not trying to give the Twins FO a pass because of "inexperience" on this roster for the start of the season are you?  This line up is not young nor is it inexperienced.  The line up has a good mix of youth, guys in their prime and inexperience and experience.  

Suzuki - Age 33 1108 G . 

Dozier - Age 29 553 G 

Escobar - Age 27 394 

Plouffe - Age 30 3643 G

Mauer - 33 1465 G

The lineup also has four starters with fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances. How many other teams around the league can make that claim? 

[Twinfan & Dad]

I mean, that simply isn't true. Dozier has 9 K in 39 PA (23% K-rate). Plouffe has 8 K in 32 PA (25%). Those are reasonable strikeout rates for a major-league ballplayer. Buxton, Park and Sano are all at 44+ percent, which is not, and beyond the stats, it is the quality of ABs. Like I said, they've been largely uncompetitive.

 

The intent of this article is not to "blame" the young players, but rather to point out that it appears some may need to be sent back because they're not ready. Are you suggesting that Dozier and Plouffe should be sent to Triple-A?

 

This team is not going to contend for a title any time soon. We should look at trading Dozier and Plouffe and try and assemble more talented youth in their return. Lets move in the direction of Huntington and the way he moved the Astro's to a solid competitive young team. We already missed out on the opportunity to move Perkins when he had value. Why keep tradeable assets so you can be at best a 500 club?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I used to think the talk of Buxton being injury prone was foolish. He's still pressing. His head isn't in the game. Few people get hit by that pitch. That's just an opinion. Of course if it was me, I'd have ducked and gotten hit in the head.

 

I 100% guarantee that what I bolded is NOT the issue. Buxton is s a very focused young man. He''s struggling on a  number off levels right now, but focus is not one of them. Effort  is none of them.

[d-mac]

 

If they are going to demote Park, they should demote Plouffe, Dozier and Suzuki as well, all of whom have significantly lower OPS than Park.

 

I'm only half serious obviously, but Dozier and Plouffe have been striking out at almost the same rate as Buxton, Park and Sano. This isn't a "rookie" problem. It is a team wide hitting problem, with the exception of Mauer, Escobar and Nunez. To blame it "on the young players" isn't fair.

 

Totally true. However, I've been telling everyone who would listen from day one in spring training that Buxton needed to start the year in AAA.

[Loosey]

If this years Twins continue to bottom out I will actually not be too upset.  Last year as many have stated may have been one of the worst things development wise that could have happened to this team.  It gave the impression they were ready to make the jump to the upper echelon of teams. But that was all based on things like all of young guys stepping up their game from what it was last year.

 

Now this year the Twins will most likely be sellers at the July deadline and there are some pieces that could and should be moved in order to really start the rebuild and put guys in the right positions.

[TheLeviathan]

If this is a year of development, every inning Sano is in the field better be at the long term position.  Whatever that is.  

 

If it switches in a year or two I'm going to really sharpen my pitchfork.

[Mike Sixel]

I want a Twin's prospect that is TOP 10 to be like Bryant, Correia, etc......

 

There is no shame in going back down, kicking rear, and then coming and being great........but it would nice if that wouldn't be an issue here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If these guys "always have to be sent back" you have an organizational problem. Stop the BS lip service, do your job, and fix it.

I'm not making excuses for this 0-9 start - it has been abysmal - but the most complete player I've ever seen play the game of baseball was demoted after his first taste of MLB pitching produced less-than-stellar results.

 

Young players sometimes have to be sent back down, even the immensely talented ones. It's just a reality of baseball.

[PopRiveter]

I am struck by the hyperoverreaction on these comment threads lately. Many are already jumping to the end-of-season conclusions (firings, restructure organizational philosophy, etc.)

 

As a fan, I am not thinking playoffs until MUCH deeper into the season. Just want to see good ball played. New talent gel with established talent. Anxious to see it happen much quicker than this.

 

I'm happy to see Joe look like himself for the first time in over 2 years. Happy to see a just-okay pitching staff perform as hoped.

 

Not happy about much else, but hitters slump. 9 games doesn't say a lot in a career arch.

 

My only complaint regarding player use is this. Oswaldo Arcia made the team and is here. Once everyone slumps, why does he have just 4 ab? I get that he too is a strikeout prone, streaky hitter. However, he's been productive in the bigs and he's a couple years ahead of RoSanoBuxKepler.

 

Wish he'd have a few starts and pinch hit opportunies instead of one of each.

[Sam Morley]

In no way, was this kind of start even remotely foreseeable for this team. What's happening is crazy. 

 

7 out of 9 starters are hitting below 200

 

Mauer is hitting damn near 400

 

The pitching staff is actually keeping this team in games despite the woes of the offense- we've been blown out once. 

 

If even one of those 7 guys hitting under 200 was hitting say 250, we'd have at least a couple of wins, maybe even be close to 500 (if that one guy hits between Mauer and Escobar)

 

I think optimism for this season was reasonable (maybe a little less so now). I don't think that our expectations for success, for building on last year's success were ill-founded just because we have several young players primed for regression and bound for periods of adjustment. If Dozier, Plouffe, and Suzuki were performing anywhere near league average at the plate (let alone their own historical standards) this team would be 500 or better. This lineup should be more than able to handle the developmental lumps of Sano, Rosario, and Buxton- especially given the performance of the starting pitching staff (not that we should necessarily expect that to continue).

 

I said to my brother the other day, there's no way we'd be 0-9 if Torii Hunter was on this team. I don't know if there's a way to substantiate that claim. 

 

I mean, if we're going to sign David Murphy, did we at least give Torii a poke first?

[Mike Sixel]

Suzuki will not be anywhere near league average.........

[Sam Morley]

 

My only complaint regarding player use is this. Oswaldo Arcia made the team and is here. Once everyone slumps, why does he have just 4 ab? I get that he too is a strikeout prone, streaky hitter. However, he's been productive in the bigs and he's a couple years ahead of RoSanoBuxKepler.

Wish he'd have a few starts and pinch hit opportunies instead of one of each.

I agree. This is the most concerning thing to me in terms of management. It smells of irrational bias against Arcia. I'm about to say something irrational myself now, but it's how I feel, so bear with me:

 

The Twins know Arcia is talented, but they don't like him. They don't like him because he is a fiery, emotional, free-swinging, Latino power hitter who is a little indifferent to playing quality defense. This is not to say that their dislike is personal, but more so that it is based on some un-stated concept of the ideal Twins player. But! maybe it is personal! And maybe they are railroading his career out of spite by neither playing him- nor releasing him, because they know he is talented and will likely go crush for some team that can handle his passion and make them look stupid and stiff and old-fashioned (in a bad way) for the next fifteen years ala David Ortiz! (of course, secretly, or not so secretly, they are doing the same thing to Miguel Sano by jerking him around- hey, big guy you're going to play outfield now with no preparation, and you're still going to hit third in the order, with Trevor Plouffe and Byung-Ho Park for protection- good luck!)

[birddog]

If any of us were thinking playoffs this year, it would have been as a wild card and an early exit. 2017 is our first year with a realistic shot at world champs. For those of us who lived through the Twins early 1980's edition of rookie seasons for Hrbek, Gaetti, Bush, etc. it wasn't very often good baseball. But it was baseball with a future, and that is what this edition of the Twins is too.

 

When you play young kids, you accept the bad with the good. Rosario will swing at any catchable pitch. Buxton is going to K a lot early, but he'll also give you some quality at bats when he looks like he's going to be a great hitter at some point. We will see in May or June why he is the prospect he is. Sano will strike out often, but more than likely it was a strike that he just missed and not a slider out of the zone. When they show each of them in the dugout during the game, they all appear to be studying the game, especially Buxton. They are doing their homework and will get better. Kepler has shown a frustrating Mauer-like knack of taking the first pitch strike no matter how hittable it is. If he becomes in-his-prime Mauerlike we'll certainly take that.

 

We were all screaming at TR to "bring up the young kids and start the future now". Coming out of spring training it looked like hitting was going to be our strength and that the young kids were indeed ready. TR did what he thought was best for the organization, and if he thinks it best to send a few down he'll do that. I for one think if Torii was still playing we would not be where we are right now. His leadership was huge in the team's turnaround last year by keeping everyone loose. Once we win our first game I expect we'll win at least half our games the rest of the way, and if the pitching stays this good we'll win more than half. And if not, I'll be in this state of shock the whole season.

[jimmer]

 

I'm not making excuses for this 0-9 start - it has been abysmal - but the most complete player I've ever seen play the game of baseball was demoted after his first taste of MLB pitching produced less-than-stellar results.

 

Young players sometimes have to be sent back down, even the immensely talented ones. It's just a reality of baseball.

And there are a million examples of young players who got demoted after their less than stellar first taste of baseball and never came back and/or never became any kind of player to remember.

 

There's only one Trout (who's start gets compared to Buxton), there's only one Randy Johnson (compared to Meyer) and so on.  

Edited April 15, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

I for one think if Torii was still playing we would not be where we are right now. His leadership was huge in the team's turnaround last year by keeping everyone loose. Once we win our first game I expect we'll win at least half our games the rest of the way, and if the pitching stays this good we'll win more than half. And if not, I'll be in this state of shock the whole season.

I don't imagine it would be much if any difference.  Even with Torii's leadership, we started off horribly last year too.  We had one great month which was attributed to Hunter and this bad start makes it easy to continue the narrative that it was all about Hunter.  What about the rest of the year?  Did his leadership vanish?  How much did his horrible second half contribute to missing the playoffs?

 

Edited April 15, 2016 by jimmer

[alarp33]

 

 

Young players sometimes have to be sent back down, even the immensely talented ones. It's just a reality of baseball.

 

1) If there is a real belief that struggling for a couple weeks in the Majors is hurting development, then yeah, a player might need to be sent down.  

 

2) The players performance is hurting the team. 

 

In regards to Buxton at least - It doesn't sound if his confidence is shaken at all, the at bats do seem to be getting better... so I'm not sure there is an argument for #1 (get back to me in mid to late May)

 

For 2) The replacement in CF would likely be Eddie Rosario/ Danny Santana and David Murphy (LF).  So your defense is going to dramatically decline, and oh ya, Rosario and Santana are as lost if not more than Buxton at the plate... and yeah, they are 0-9 so before to long the Win/Loss column for this season won't mean much

Edited April 15, 2016 by alarp33

[Mr. Brooks]

Good article, but a step back from what?

Take out an incredibly fluky May last year and it didn't really look any different than the 4 years before it.

Last May was the worst thing that could have possibly happened to the Twins.

First, because it caused the FO to think we were closer than we actually are. Ryan did nothing to improve this roster over the off-season.

Secondly, it guaranteed Ryan and Mollie several more years of job security.

After they lose 90 games this year they can claim it's just one step back after fixing the roster, instead of having to explain why they have lost 90 games for a 6th straight year.