Article: Draft Blog, Entry 2 (4/14/16)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Any thoughts on Nick Senzel (mlb #14) or Bobby Dalbec (mlb #15)?  Both play third in decent colleges.  

 

Senzel will go Top 5. Haven't heard much about Dalbec.

[Hrbowski]

 

Dang, mlb has to update their list ....  So he's probably not going to be at 15 is what you're saying?

 

While we're on the topic, anyone know how Kyle Cody and Funkhowsier are looking this year?  

Both are doing real poorly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The success rate of college hitters in the Top 10 isn't 100%. It just happened that the Cubs might have gotten the best two in the last ten years. There are some bad names on that list: Michael Choice, Mike Zunino, Christian Colon, Colin Moran. It's possible that Ian Happ turns out to be a stud, but in reality, the Cubs are where they are because they've swindled other teams (Russell for Shark rental! Rizzo for Cashner! Arrieta for Feldman!). So, yeah, copy that part.

 

As you know, I agree with that part....but the Twins kept their two real assets, Dozier and Perkins. I can sort of understand the Dozier decision.

 

And, yes, the Cubs have gotten lucky some, I agree with that. But, somehow, if a team is lucky over and over and over.....maybe it isn't luck. Maybe the team has mad skillz.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Dang, mlb has to update their list ....  So he's probably not going to be at 15 is what you're saying?

 

While we're on the topic, anyone know how Kyle Cody and Funkhowsier are looking this year?  

 

Funkhouser has been between really bad and terrible. Cody has been between decent and bad. Neither go in the first round. Neither make what they turned down last year.

[Hrbowski]

 

Senzel will go Top 5. Haven't heard much about Dalbec.

Dalbec will probably fall completely out of the first round.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Quantrill's availability seems like a double-edged sword. If he comes back healthy and pitching well is he long gone by the time the Twins pick at 15. On the other hand, if he's shaky at best, do we want to take a chance on him?

 

I feel the same. It really depends on how much he is able to pitch vs what his demands are. With the larger pool, you might be able to work a deal to get him to slide... if you're into that sort of thing.

[Hrbowski]

The funny thing is that last November I had an argument with somebody about whether Senzel or Buddy Reed was a better player, and I told them that Senzel wouldn't get past #3, so I'm hoping he doesn't. 

Edited April 14, 2016 by Hrbowski

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

As you know, I agree with that part....but the Twins kept their two real assets, Dozier and Perkins. I can sort of understand the Dozier decision.

 

And, yes, the Cubs have gotten lucky some, I agree with that. But, somehow, if a team is lucky over and over and over.....maybe it isn't luck. Maybe the team has mad skillz.

 

What kind of luck are we talking about: This kind of luck?

[gunnarthor]

 

As you know, I agree with that part....but the Twins kept their two real assets, Dozier and Perkins. I can sort of understand the Dozier decision.

 

And, yes, the Cubs have gotten lucky some, I agree with that. But, somehow, if a team is lucky over and over and over.....maybe it isn't luck. Maybe the team has mad skillz.

You might be putting the cart before the horse.  They had a good year last year but, like the Twins, they sucked until last year.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

You might be putting the cart before the horse.  They had a good year last year but, like the Twins, they sucked until last year.  

 

I might, you want to be on that? I'm willing to bet the cubs are in the playoffs (barring several injuries) 5 times in the next 7 years. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I might, you want to be on that? I'm willing to bet the cubs are in the playoffs (barring several injuries) 5 times in the next 7 years. 

Yeah, they could, I suppose.  The NL only has 9 teams trying this year.  And they have a massive payroll advantage that should keep them in the hunt while the AL looks more even. But they won't make the playoffs 5x in 7 years.  Only a handful of teams have been able to pull that off.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What kind of luck are we talking about: This kind of luck?

 

I was talking about Arrieta and Bryant falling to them.......I think their luck may have turned. By coincidence, it happened when they got new leadership.

[alarp33]

 

I've been asked about Logan Shore. I didn't include him because he was talked about in the first installment. Given how much the Twins like him - Doogie talks about it frequently - I'd imagine he'd be in the mix, among many others that weren't mentioned above.

 

FWIW - Shore was not in Keith Law's top 50 draft prospects.  I asked him if he was close/considered and his was response was a simple "no." I said interesting, as I've heard the Twins floating his name (local kid and all) and he said re; Shore "it's not that kind of stuff at all"

[Pjfriend]

I hope the twins go heavy in college bullpen arms again this year. Can't believe this strategy hasn't caught on with the rest of MLB!!!

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I hope the twins go heavy in college bullpen arms again this year. Can't believe this strategy hasn't caught on with the rest of MLB!!!

It's an interesting strategy that's for sure, but with escalating contracts all around baseball especially the large influx in RP free agency, we might see more and more of it.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not ignoring anything......he has taken advantage of his assets, and succeeded in Boston, and now probably in Chicago. But, yes, we are off topic.

 

I am not saying that he deserves no credit at all.  I think he had a detailed 2-3 year plan for the Cubs and has executed that plan flawlessly.  But I took the comment of “copy everything the Cubs do” as more broad than just the draft and wanted to point out that he has a luxury we don’t have (payroll).  If you were taking just about the draft I think you are right.

 

None of his free agent signings in Chicago have really been shrewd deals.  Lester at $25M.  Heyward at $17.5M.  Lackey at $16M.  Zobrist at $10M.  Dexter Fowler at $8M.  I am guessing these are closer to overpays than great bargains.  But like the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, the Cubs are now a team that can go out and sign almost anyone they want and overpay without crippling the team.  Had he gone to a team that can’t be a top 5 payroll and had success I would have been more impressed.

[tobi0040]

 

It's an interesting strategy that's for sure, but with escalating contracts all around baseball especially the large influx in RP free agency, we might see more and more of it.

 

But relievers are still the cheapest position to fill and one you can with the shortest commitment.  O'Day was the cream last year and signed for 4-28 and he is good.  Mid-level starters are still signing for $10-15M on 4-5 year deals.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I hope the twins go heavy in college bullpen arms again this year. Can't believe this strategy hasn't caught on with the rest of MLB!!!

This is obviously filled with sarcasm (and I'm with you). It's paid some dividends... well, Duffey... but I've long been saying that the bullpen should be filled with players that failed as starters. If I ran a team, I'd draft some flamethrowers, sure, but they'd supplement a 'pen full of guys that didn't get it done as starters. From Rivera to Nathan to Perkins to Hochever to almost everyone in between, turn your junk starters into stud relievers!

[Mike Sixel]

Just skimmed KLAWs top 50. Ouch. Good luck following this crew, Jeremy.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Matt Manning, RHP, California HS (25;12;NR) - His season just starting, Manning is going to be all over national boards until teams have an opportunity to see him, something the Twins and scouting director Deron Johnson did earlier this week. Reports indicate that Manning was throwing “hard.”

If it came down to drafting one of these five, who do you want? And why?

Click here to view the article

I saw Manning throw at the Perfect Game WWBA in Jupiter, FL last October.  Kid had nasty stuff 76-78 slider/curve with a fastball 91-94 mph and was named MVPitcher for the tourney.  In his first game, he threw two innings of the EvoShield No-hitter striking out all six batters before coming back to pitch five innigns three days later in the championship game.  His dad is former NBAer Rich Manning.  I talked to Deron at the event, as he was watching several big HS arms, said "he liked what he saw".

 

 In fact, Deron had a front row seat to watch Josh Lowe with the Braves Scout Team at the WWBA too.  Low  had the fifth highest exit velocity at the tourney, so he hits the ball really really hard.  He also made a couple of good plays at third and showed off a CANNON of an arm at the hot corner.

[gunnarthor]

 

Just skimmed KLAWs top 50. Ouch. Good luck following this crew, Jeremy.

Out of curiosity, who does Klaw have at #15?

[Mike Sixel]

13...AJ Puk

14...Nolan Jones

15.....Anfernee Grier

16...Forrest Whitley

[Bob Sacamento]

 

This is obviously filled with sarcasm (and I'm with you). It's paid some dividends... well, Duffey... but I've long been saying that the bullpen should be filled with players that failed as starters. If I ran a team, I'd draft some flamethrowers, sure, but they'd supplement a 'pen full of guys that didn't get it done as starters. From Rivera to Nathan to Perkins to Hochever to almost everyone in between, turn your junk starters into stud relievers!

No doubt that's what you do with failed starters, it's just a developmental process vs how soon do you get a return on your investment.  What Ryan has done is interesting in that by drafting college relievers (Duffy, Jay, etc) theoritically they have low miles on their arms, they should climb the system fast and if they aren't able to be stretched out you have a RP ready for the show sooner than most.

 

 I'm not saying it's a good strategy just interesting as the game is becoming more and more reliever dominated.  I wouldn't be surprised in 10-20 years that a starter only goes thru a lineup twice before a RP is brought in becomes the standard.

[Mike Sixel]

Here is a list of RP they've drafted that have become RP in the majors so far:

[TRex]

 

Here is a list of RP they've drafted that have become RP in the majors so far:

What about Jesse Crain... I guess that is still a pretty small list!

[Mike Sixel]

 

What about Jesse Crain... I guess that is still a pretty small list!

 

Well, I thought we were talking about the current lead scout, but sure, I'll give them 1. 

[markos]

I think there will likely be a good pitcher available at #15. Over the past 5 drafts, that has been where a lot of "talented arm but injury/consistency/etc caused him to slip" pitchers have ended up:

 

At 14:

Kolby Allard (2015)

Tyler Beede (2014)

Jose Fernandez (2011)

 

At 15:

Sean Newcomb (2014)

Braden Shipley (2013)

 

At 16:

James Kaprielian (2015)

Touki Toussaint (2014)

Lucas Giolito (2012)

 

At 17:

Brady Aiken (2015)

Brandon Finnegan (2014)

 

At 18:

Phil Bickford (2015)

Erick Fedde (2014)

Sonny Gray (2011)

[Darius]

I don't understand....why isn't spending money a "luxury" that the Twins have?

 

No salary cap, boatloads of cash from a new stadium, owners are some of the richest people on earth.

 

The Pohlads don't want to spend money to field a talented roster. It has nothing to do with whether or not they "have the luxury." They're cheap, plain and simple.

[operation mindcrime]

I'd pick Will Benson! \m/ \m/

[gunnarthor]

 

I think there will likely be a good pitcher available at #15. Over the past 5 drafts, that has been where a lot of "talented arm but injury/consistency/etc caused him to slip" pitchers have ended up:

 

At 14:

Kolby Allard (2015)

Tyler Beede (2014)

Jose Fernandez (2011)

 

At 15:

Sean Newcomb (2014)

Braden Shipley (2013)

 

At 16:

James Kaprielian (2015)

Touki Toussaint (2014)

Lucas Giolito (2012)

 

At 17:

Brady Aiken (2015)

Brandon Finnegan (2014)

 

At 18:

Phil Bickford (2015)

Erick Fedde (2014)

Sonny Gray (2011)

That's a really good point.  Last year, I thought Mike Nikorak might be a nice sleeper pick for someone and he slid all the way to 27.  There will be some nice talent at 15 although we might not nab the right guy. Should still be fun to watch.