Article: Woe And Seven

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins could have hardly asked for a better finish to the month of March. During their last eight days in Fort Myers, they went 8-0, receiving strong outing after strong outing as their starters stretched out to season-ready form. Hitters looked to be ahead of the curve; six regulars posted a Grapefruit OPS above 850. Everyone was healthy.

 

Then, the calendar flipped to April, and the team has been under some cruel hex ever since.During an unprecedented 0-7 start, the Twins have been outplayed so thoroughly that it's hard to remember a day where they actually did string together a rally or capitalize upon an advantageous situation.

 

The game of baseball, with its marathon regular season, has taught us again and again that it is folly to draw conclusions or reach judgments based on a week's worth of contests. It seems fair to say that the Twins haven't played as badly during this opening stretch as they did during last year's 1-7 start, and as we all recall, that team rebounded to overtake first place in the division – albeit with an historic month of May.

 

The season ebbs and flows, so there's little doubt that this dreadful slump will be offset, to some degree, by a hot streak in the relatively near future. There's no need to press the panic button simply because of the 0-7 record, even though the history of MLB teams who have gotten off to such a start is dreary.

 

Eventually we will see some of the positive aspects of this club, the ones that compelled many people including myself to believe that they had a good shot at contending for a playoff spot, becoming more prominent. It will likely happen very soon.

 

But what's alarming is that during this first week, the issues that have plagued the Twins and resulted in a steady stream of losses are the very same ones that we all envisioned in our "what if" scenario wherein this club was going to suffer a major backslide.

 

When you looked at the most pressing potential problem areas coming out of spring, they shaped up like this: bullpen, K-prone lineup filled with inexperienced hitters, and Miguel Sano in right field.

 

It'd be tough for any of those things to be playing out more poorly.

 

Bullpen? That unit is 0-3 and has yet to successfully protect a lead. Each of the three back-end staples has blown a key opportunity, with Glen Perkins' crushing appearance on Sunday standing out as the most painful.

 

Strikeouts in the lineup? Yeah, there have been plenty of those – more than even the most pessimistic skeptic could have guessed. The Twins entered play on Tuesday leading the majors in whiffs, with a team K-rate of 30.3 percent. In 2015, Baltimore's Chris Davis led all MLB hitters with 31.0 percent strikeout rate.

 

Inexperience? It certainly appears to be a major hindrance. Minnesota entered the campaign with four players in the starting lineup who had less than one full season's worth of MLB at-bats; each of those players has an OPS below .540 and a strikeout rate of 38 percent or above. The worst part is that they don't appear equipped to handle these struggles and are pressing more and more with each unsuccessful plate appearance, creating a snowball effect throughout the batting order.

 

And of course, the Sano-in-right field experiment has been adventurous, to be kind. The ball hasn't been hit to him a ton but he has still committed multiple gaffes, and his mechanics and movements on even the more routine plays suggest that he's a long way from being so much as serviceable out there. A long way.

 

So while the amount of losing is unsettling – only one of the Twins' division-winning teams since the turn of the century has ever lost seven straight – it's the foundational roots of all the losing that really stings.

 

I'm not talking about the typical frustrating miscues that always accompany a losing spell, like Eduardo Escobar uncharacteristically committing three errors in a week, or Kurt Suzuki popping up a bunt and sparking a double-play in the most facepalm-inducing moment of Monday's home opener. I'm talking about deeper symptoms that speak to the severity of this roster's flaws.

 

Those, much more than the results, make it difficult to believe that these Twins are ready to take a big step forward.

 

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[mumoo13]

When Kepler was called up, I thought he might get some at-bats from Buxton, Rosario, and Park, who are striking out a lot. Any chance that happens, or will he just be a defensive replacement until Santana is healthy?

[mickeymental]

i'm reminded of the allan sherman song from the '60s about camp granada. the kid is writing a long letter home about how everything sucks, it won't stop raining and the parents shoulda never sent him. suddenly the sun comes out and everything is great:

 

Wait a minute! It's stopped hailing. Guys are swimming. Guys are sailing. Playing baseball. Gee! That's better. Muddah, Fadduh, kindly disregard this letter!

[Platoon]

There's an awful lot of IF'S there. But one must remember these are IF'S that were consciously put in place. Sano in RF, the BP, Park, and in essence mostly the same starting staff. And while the SP has been above their norm, there is no reason to expect that to continue. Veteran mediocre pitchers may on a rare ocassion find another gear for a year, but not often and not collectively. While there a lot of IF'S, the one that intrigues me the most is the relationship between Sanos hitting and RF Experiment. Something seems amiss. I know he said all the right things, but his actions in the off season, and from what I can gather was not exactly a mad rush to ST early to work on The Experiment causes me to wonder if the he is distracted or disgruntled. Everyone has a slump, but his has made me wonder if the move to the OF is impacting his bat? The Twins lost two years in development of Sano and Buxton to injuries, and one year of development to the faux title run last year. So, I wasn't even expecting a WC chase this year, but was hopeful they would use the year to make adjustments to the awkward roster situation and integrate some more youth. Time will tell!

Edited April 13, 2016 by Platoon

[HitInAPinch]

"During their last eight days in Fort Myers, they went 8-0, receiving strong outing after strong outing as their starters stretched out to season-ready form."

 

That's my thing:  how the heck did they turn from a strong finish to SP to 0-7 in regular season play? 

Maybe it's over-rating prospects.  Or the bullpen.  Or starters. Or everyday players.  The fallacy of  being playoff contenders this year and the perception of having trade-able players of value doesn't help. 

 

At best, this is a team that is STILL in building mode.  There are some pieces in place for future success, but even those have warts.

 

Strap on that jock strap with Kevlar cup:  it's gonna be a bumpy ride. 

Edited April 13, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

There's an awful lot of IF'S there. But one must remember these are IF'S that were consciously put in place. Sano in RF, the BP, Park, and in essence mostly the same starting staff. And while the SP has been above their norm, there is no reason to expect that to continue. Veteran mediocre pitchers may on a rare ocassion find another gear for a year, but not often and not collectively. While there a lot of IF'S, the one that intrigues me the most is the relationship between Sanos hitting and RF Experiment. Something seems amiss. I know he said all the right things, but his actions in the off season, and from what I can gather was not exactly a mad rush to ST early to work on The Experiment causes me to wonder if the he is distracted or disgruntled. Everyone has a slump, but his has made me wonder if the move to the OF is impacting his bat? The Twins lost two years in development of Sano and Buxton to injuries, and one year of development to the faux title run last year. So, I wasn't even expecting a WC chase this year, but was hopeful they would use the year to make adjustments to the awkward roster situation and integrate some more youth. Time will tell!

 

I don't know about Sano and the off-season.  The part I'm confused about is whether or not management ordered Sano to play RF in the winter leagues or not AND who called it off.  That I don't understand.  Distracted or disgruntled:  At 22, I'd say too young to be disgruntled.  He has a family that grew up in poverty.  But it sounds like they did the best they could and Sano didn't sound disgruntled in the video.  I will say, he's probably facing pressure from family like he's never had in his life.  And from baseball, too.

[alarp33]

 

"During their last eight days in Fort Myers, they went 8-0, receiving strong outing after strong outing as their starters stretched out to season-ready form."

 

That's my thing:  how the heck did they turn from a strong finish to SP to 0-7 in regular season play? 

Maybe it's over-rating prospects.  Or the bullpen.  Or starters. Or everyday players.  

 

Or maybe it's over-rating a "strong finish to SP"

 

*By the way, I assume SP = Spring Training

Edited April 13, 2016 by alarp33

[Platoon]

Whether it be most, quite a few, or some of them believing it, there was a lot of speculation that Plouffe would be traded. A dollar to a dozen donuts Miguel was amongst them. This is not a Plouffe tirade, it's the observation that at 22 Sano could have believed that as easily as at 52. Frankly I was far more easily frustrated at that age than I am now. Impatience and impetuity are more likely equated with youth than with maturity!

[Platoon]

Or maybe it's over-rating a "strong finish to SP"

Someone overrated our SP? I am going to the SW corner of my moms basement to reflect on that concept!

[Han Joelo]

Twins opponents are 17-4 combined, which obviously translates to 11-4 against non-Twins opponents as well.

Not sure how much that counts, but it certainly doesn't help they've played three teams off to great starts.

[Shane Wahl]

Didn't Sano start out horrifically last year at AA too? I am only concerned about the obviously stupid move to RF having an effect, but I am not worried that there is a serious regression going on.

 

Spring Training means absolutely nothing. Hopefully hopes weren't raised because of the end of March! Good lord. ST means nothing and is totally worthless as a predictor for the regular season. They shouldn't even count wins and losses.

 

 

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Spring training results are akin to "fools gold". Sano is last year's version of the "Santana" switch. Tyler Duffy was successful with his two pitches last year but let's change him also, oh well. Confidence must be easier to attain at the major league level apparently with how we go about experimenting with our players.

[Blake]

 

Twins opponents are 17-4 combined, which obviously translates to 11-4 against non-Twins opponents as well.
Not sure how much that counts, but it certainly doesn't help they've played three teams off to great starts.

Yeah, when your first opponent is the last undefeated team and your next opponent is the reigning WS champ it makes for a tough way to start the season. 

[Mike Sixel]

There is an interesting post up there......

 

Santana was "good" in the OF, they moved him to SS, he struggled. Sano was awesome at DH, they moved him, SO FAR, he has struggled. Duffey was successful last year, they told him to work on a changeup, he struggled.

 

Reminds me of the stories we used to hear about trying to make all the hitters the same......no idea if any of those were true, but it is possibly an interesting discussion point. Do they mess with success too much (that is, are the Twins a meta version of Phil Hughes)?

[h2oface]

Sano's problem at the plate is from scouting his inability to hit a fastball up in the zone, and that is all he is getting now, and he swings and misses. He is swinging right through meat at the belt right down the middle and not even out of the zone. Scouting Duffey and looking for his curve instead of being fooled by it........ it is rare for the league to not adjust quickly with all the video, advanced stats, and scouting, and both Duffey and Sano need to make their own adjustments now, too. They are not performing the same because of the very tendencies that made them successful last year, are their nemesis this year.

Edited April 13, 2016 by h2oface

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sano's problem at the plate is from scouting his inability to hit a fastball up in the zone, and that is all he is getting now, and he swings and misses. Scouting Duffey and looking for his curve instead of being fooled by it........ it is rare for the league to not adjust now, and both Duffey and Sano need to make their own adjustments now, too. 

 

I agree with this, but if people think culture, and leadership and other stuff matters.......changing positions and asking players to work on new pitches must matter also.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

This is just an odd team and was last year. Really tough to predict what they will do because they are so streaky. As a homer, you can look and down the lineup and staff and say, "I like that guy and he is good," but when you take each individual position and compare him to the rest of the division or league you see we are very average or below average at almost every position.

 

We like Plouffe, but when you look at the rest of the league you find that there is not too teams that don't have better and younger 3B's than him. Good player, but would take 2/3's the leagues 3B over him. He will probably end up with similar stats as last year, but has been unlucky so far.

 

Escobar is hitting well, but literally half of his BABIP drop for hits thus far and has not walked but a few times! Some regression coming there, but at least he is getting lucky and getting on base right now. Again, another position where we homers like this guy, but would certainly choose half the starting SS's from others teams over him. At least not below average here thought. Just not something to be very excited and proud of.

 

Dozier we treat like he is some super star as homers, but again way overrated once you look at what else is out there. Yes, he is good, but not as good as we perceive him to be. Think he has another good year, but not as good, and then declines steadily. He has lived off of his pull power and 'just barely' line drive homers. Doesn't take much for the bat to slow down and those become outs. He is essentially terrible if not for the power. But, he is probably closer to the middle of the pack for 2B this year than the top, and was closer to just inside the top ten the way it was. Great player, but not as your top player.

 

Mauer, is off to a hot start. Is striking out less, walking more, and making contact. Probably not going to keep up  a .400 BABIP, but might be a good player this year. However, when you compare him to the rest of the leagues 1b, he would likely be near the bottom of starters by almost all standards. Like the start though and hope he can spark this team this year. Just not a plus at the position.

 

Suzuki is just not that good at baseball. Not much power, doesn't get on base to well, and is not that great of a defensive catcher. He just has a nice personality, so there is that. Probably bottom 5 catcher in the league and will likely remain that.

 

Our OF is young and is what I think most of us were hanging our hopes on. Well, so far that has been a disaster. There is youth and talent there, but also all 3 guys are and always have been extremely flawed too. I never thought Rosario was that great, nor did I think he could keep up his luck. He makes hard contact, but strikes out way too much, does not get on base, and his power is not even close to where it needs to be to make up for those flaws. His defense it nice, but as a hitter he is near the bottom when looking at other teams starters. Homers love him because he is young and flashy, but way too many flaws to be trusted or thought of as good. Buxton, is a stud in CF, but an AL pitcher at that plate. He has shown me nothing that says he will be make enough contact to be a good hitter. His defense makes him a good player, but still would say a the moment he is a bottom half CF with at least the chance of being one of the better ones. Just not right now. Sano is not and OF. Period. There is not much chance he will be as good as he was last year, but he could be close to that and still be a monster. The K's will likely always be there, but at least he can still get on base and the power is real. He might have stretches where he looks more like Chris Carter, but will also have stretches where he looks like Miggy. Our one true plus player.

 

DH? Park is struggling, and many thought this could happen. Way to early to know what he really is and can be. But, right now he is negative player that hurts more than he helps the team.

 

Our starting staff has performed better than in the past, but that is not really hard to do. Their ERA is top 1/3, but their metrics say more bottom 1/3 and have been getting lucky to this point. So, at least they are doing that, but nothing to be excited about. Our staff when compared to others is bad. Compare our #1 to others, our #2 to others, and so on and you almost always pick the other teams starter. So, we might like some of our guys, but in comparison they are not that great. At least we have a stud prospect that should help out at some point. This is not a good rotation, but it certainly is and will be much better than in the past.

 

Our bullpen has underperformed their metrics and have gotten pretty unlucky so far. They are not this bad. But, they are not that great either. Perkins is probably a bottom half or third closer and falling. He is more like a decent setup guy. Jepson is not that bad, but he is no stud either. He is an average late innings guy, but more suited to be a really good 7th inning guy. May still is our best guy in the pen, but is not consistent enough yet. Even as a closer, he would probably be average at best when you compare him to the rest of the leagues guys though. He has the potential to be really really good, but has not been used very well at all to this point. Fien, is terrible and I have no idea why the FO thinks guys with low velocity and bad stuff can somehow just find a way to succeed. It doesn't work. The bullpen is not that good, but really isn't this bad either. I would say middle of the league BP. Not my biggest worry, but Perkins needs to get pulled fast if he continues to falter. I think we could be really good, if our minor league guys come up and help out.

 

So, there you are. If you look at this team piece by piece and compare it to other teams guys you find that we really aren't a great team. Many people predicted us to be pretty bad based on these observations. Now, there was and is enough potential on this team to get streaky and find a way, but not likely. We need the young guys to live up to their potential and our veterans to not regress greatly for this team to be .500. The staff needs to keep it up and be infused by our minor league.

 

This team is still an enigma and could end up getting on fire if everyone clicks, but it is just as likely, if not more, that this team finishes bottom 3 in the AL.

 

Same goes for our staff and bullpen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Didn't Sano start out horrifically last year at AA too?

Sort of.  His average was low and he was striking out a lot, but he did connect on a few HR early last season, giving him a respectable ISO throughout.  7 games of no XBH, plus low average, plus not drawing an unholy amount of walks is rather unusual for Sano, although he probably did it last September in MLB too...

[Loosey]

 

This team is still an enigma and could end up getting on fire if everyone clicks, but it is just as likely, if not more, that this team finishes bottom 3 in the AL.

 

Same goes for our staff and bullpen.

I would assume most thought this team had/has chances on contending due to the "unknowns" and young guys developing into something and no longer being young unknowns.  7 games in they are still unknowns and young.

[h2oface]

 

I agree with this, but if people think culture, and leadership and other stuff matters.......changing positions and asking players to work on new pitches must matter also.

 

I have never bought into the pitch that it matters where a player plays in the field and that it affects the performance at the plate. Batting is batting, and has nothing to do with fielding. Mental issues certainly come into play, and rhythm of the game is different if one is a DH and just hits... but whether one plays outfield or infield, or switches around the field..... I don't buy that it should or does have an effect on hitting.

[James Richter]

Everything is magnified this early. "Winless through 7 games" can overstate how close most of these games were. The fundamental issues Nick raises are definitely a concern. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there has been some unsustainable un-clutchness so far:

 

-The team has about half the BABIP and 30% more Ks with RISP than they do overall.

-Our best bullpen guys have all blown at least one high-leverage situation.

 

It's maddening, but better times are ahead.

[sane16]

Wait a minute! It's stopped hailing. Guys are swimming. Guys are sailing. Playing baseball. Gee! That's better. Muddah, Fadduh, kindly disregard this letter!

"Look for the silver lining

When e'er a cloud appears in the blue.

Remember some where the sun is shining,

And so the right thing to do,

Is make it shine for you.

 

A heart, full of joy and gladness,

Will always banish sadness and strife.

So always look for the silver lining,

And try to find the sunny side of life"

[frightwig]

 

Everything is magnified this early. "Winless through 7 games" can overstate how close most of these games were. The fundamental issues Nick raises are definitely a concern. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there has been some unsustainable un-clutchness so far:

 

So far Pythag has their expected record at 1-6 (.197), and BaseRuns has it at 2-5 (.310).

 

Last year they had incredible "clutchness," or cluster luck. So far this year, they've been slightly unlucky, but the team really has been bad--just as it was fundamentally poor last season, if you look at the underlying numbers.

 

BaseRuns pegged the 2015 Twins as a 73-win (.451) team; if they play the rest of this year at that level, they'll finish with 70 wins. FanGraphs is currently projecting 74 wins for this season. Barring another year of terrific cluster luck, I expect the team will wind up somewhere in that neighborhood. I'm just hoping that some of the younger players will grow, and Terry Ryan will make some deals for the future that he should've done last winter.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Twins are 4.5 games behind right now. Jays are 4.5 games behind. I'm not sweating.

[h2oface]

Is it too early to start thinking about the #1 draft pick in 2017?