Article: Three-Bagger: Schwarber, Strikeouts And Kepler

[alarp33]

 

Well, it's not like Park becoming available was a surprise. They must have scouted him, and known they would bid on him. It shows, imo, a complete lack of foresight and planning. 

 

Basically, we are giving them a pass for not knowing the trade market for Plouffe, and for signing a 29 year old rookie....as if all of that only just happened to them, and was not predictable at all......as if them taking those actions was not, in any way, their action. This all just happened to them, and it was not predictable, and there was nothing they could do about it.

 

Oh trust me, I am in no way giving them a pass for it. I'm agreeing with you.  I think it's absolutely crazy that they could be so ill prepared for this. I could've told you in October they wouldn't get a big return for Plouffe. 

Edited April 11, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

To be clear, I don't think putting him out there is the worst idea ever......but I do think not playing him in the OF last year was a bad idea (I think I even proposed this before last year started).

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Oh trust me, I am in no way giving them a pass for it. I'm agreeing with you.  I think it's absolutely crazy that they could be so ill prepared for this. I could've told you in October they wouldn't get a big return for Plouffe. 

Well, why didn't you tell the rest of us? Why'd you have to keep it a secret?!!!!

[Dantes929]

On the injury front I think it worth while to mention that two years ago Sano got an injury that erased a whole year while playing third base.   Last year his biggest injury was a pulled ham string while DH'ing which could possibly have been avoided by being loose while playing the outfield.    

I didn't see the play he blew but he was hitting very poorly before that.    He didn't seem to struggle too much in ST while playing the outfield.   Jepsen and Perkins were better last year than any of the FA's available and Jepsen was absolutely a shut down guy for us last year.    Now Jepsen has already blown more games than he did all last year and Perkins has more blown saves than he did the entire first half of last year.  Getting two free agents isn't going to change the fact that Jebsen and Perkins were going to pitch in those situations.    Buxton had started to hit in ST and Rosario did very well and now neither can even make contact.     My point of all this is that these guys could all just as easily been playing well and we would be 6-0 instead of 0-6.   Sometimes it is up to the players we have to actually perform.    Instead of someone stepping up as they did to a good ST we have someone failing each time during our miserable season so far.   I say so far because it is time for the Twins to go 18-10 from this point.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

I mean, if you want to remove all nuance from the discussion, sure, it's accurate to say that anyone on the baseball field can get hurt. We're talking about levels of risk. If you think a lifelong 3B like Sano isn't at greater risk of getting hurt while learning/playing a brand new position in the major leagues, I'd respectfully disagree. Obviously both 3B and RF involve much less risk than DH, where you're on the field only a fraction of the time. 

[jimmer]

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

There is some data that show right field is the least likely injury risk and third base the highest risk. Third is a quick reaction position, which I would think would increase the risk of pulling muscles. I'm not sure watching Sano diving for ball at third would be more healthy than running in the outfield.

perhaps for people who have played outfield before and aren't 270 lb.

[Zachary]

I do think in a perfect world it would be nice prolonging his bat as long as possible and keeping him at the DH would do that. David Ortiz has had incredible numbers at age 37,38 and 39 and will probably do it once again at age 40.

 

I'm sure this discussion has been had but I didn't see it at the time. Is there no chance of forcing Park to play at right and let him and Kepler fight for playing time? Would he be even worse than Sano in right?

[Major League Ready]

 

I do think in a perfect world it would be nice prolonging his bat as long as possible and keeping him at the DH would do that. David Ortiz has had incredible numbers at age 37,38 and 39 and will probably do it once again at age 40.

I'm sure this discussion has been had but I didn't see it at the time. Is there no chance of forcing Park to play at right and let him and Kepler fight for playing time? Would he be even worse than Sano in right?

I don't know if Sano has ever commented on his desire to play in the field and we would have to take whatever was said with a grain of PR salt.  However, I would think that Sano and his representation would be against a strictly DH role.  Players who can man a defensive position command more dollars and what player would prefer, especially with his athleticism wants to be just a DH.  Point being that defying his wish to play in the field if it exists would be a good way too assure him leaving once he has the option.

Edited April 11, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[savvyspy]

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

Not sure this is a sound understanding of how calculating risk works. This is like saying a 2 pack a day chain smoker and a marathon runner both have a risk of getting lung cancer. While technically true it vastly underestimates the risk factors for the smoker.

 

Sano playing outfield at his size with zero experience presents many more risk factors that could lead to injury (like diving for balls that land 10 feet in front of him) than a more experienced outfielder.

 

This being said, injury is a secondary reason Sano shouldn't be playing outfield. The primary one being he is horrendous out there (through no fault of his own) and it does the rest of the team a disservice by having to cover for a complete liability because this front office can't manage a roster at a professional level.

[KGB]

 

This being said, injury is a secondary reason Sano shouldn't be playing outfield. The primary one being he is horrendous out there (through no fault of his own)

So you don't see any opportunity for a player to improve his fielding ability?  No ability to get into better shape to improve mobility and work on his game in the outfield?  Nobody should have thought Sano was athletic enough to make the leap to playing the outfield?

 

I know we want to blame the FO for everything, but the players on the field have a part in the teams success or failure also.  Probably more than the FO.

[Nick Nelson]

I take it Seth was not a fan of the idea to have Mauer switch positions? After all, a guy can get a concussion anywhere.

[dxpavelka]

 

1) I don't why people keep bringing up weight. It means nothing really, in the case of Sano or Santana. I wouldn't think there is any less risk if he was 230, instead of 280.

2). Sure, there is always risk at any position, including DH. The risk of injury when playing outfield, however, is not the same as DHing. That's clear. Schwarber wouldn't have torn his ACL, and would still be playing, if he could be DH'd. Assigning the same level of risk across the board is kind of preposterous. Why not minimize risk as much as possible?

3). It's different if Sano is a gold glover out there. But, he's not. He's bad. He's arguable cost the team a game already. I keep hearing "right field defense doesn't matter" from all of these people whose opinions are typically spot on. That's just not true. Right field defense was the lone difference between the Twins losing in the bottom of the ninth, and getting a chance to retake the lead in extra innings. Sure, a game here or there typically doesn't matter over the course of an MLB season....but there is also that rare time when a team loses a game 163, or finishes the season a couple of games out of the wildcard. Why not do everything you can to maximize your victories? Is DHing Park everyday really doing that, and putting Sano in RF really doing that (I don't care about sunk costs)? So many think it's a cut-and-dried yes. But, I think that's debatable.

4). There's also that pesky little thing called the future. Why teach your best player a new position? Especially when it's not realistic for him to be there long term. Let Sano be Sano, and have assets of significantly less value make a career altering change.

Maybe people keep bringing up weight because the number of players who have not been major disappointments as outfielders at Sano's weight can be counted on with one hand.

[lukeduke1980]

Is it plausible that some of Sano's troubles at the plate are related to learning a new position in the field?  I think we heard that when Mauer was learning first?

[old nurse]

Leg injuries are as likely to happen on the basepaths as they are in the field. The Twins batters have found a way to minimize their chances of injury,

[LaBombo]

 

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

There is some data that show right field is the least likely injury risk and third base the highest risk.  Third is a quick reaction position, which I would think would increase the risk of pulling muscles.  I'm not sure watching Sano diving for ball at third would be more healthy than running in the outfield.

 

Good find, it was an interesting read and thanks for posting.   It seemed that the author was much more comfortable drawing conclusions about the age/injury relationship from his admittedly limited data set than he was with position/injury.    There was no attempt to divide each position into age groups, and age appeared to be the much greater contributor/correlation to injury than position.

 

And even if there were moderately compelling age-neutral data that a hypothetical generic 23 year old would be at greater risk of injury at third than in right, there's still the unavoidable fact that Sano is not a generic 23 year old.

 

He's a kid who has played only one position in his very short pro career, and has yet to accumulate a full season's worth of major league at bats.    And yes, it's a very small sample size, but so far he looks profoundly uncomfortable both in his new position and at the plate.

 

There's no guaranteed win/win path here that I can see.   I don't pretend to know for sure that Sano has what it takes to play third in the majors.  On the other hand, neither do the Twins, if you go by the fact that they've apparently changed their minds after watching him there a whopping 9 games.

 

Bottom line for me is that in an imaginary vacuum of only replacement-level alternatives to Sano at third or RF, the Twins play Sano at third.   And if not, aren't they obligated to clean house in the scouting department after they clearly dropped the ball on what was probably the most heavily scouted MLB-ready prospect in the organization?

 

But the Sano position call isn't being made in a vacuum, and the longer we watch him struggle in the field and at the plate, the more certain we'll be that the Twins moved him in order to accommodate both Plouffe and their own inability to stomach sub-par defense in exchange for even stellar offense.

 

 

 

 

[kenbuddha]

An issue I see with playing Sano in RF is that by doing so, Molitor will feel he needs a late inning defensive replacement. Which means he takes Sano's bat out of the lineup. If a late inning defensive replacement is necessary, it's a close game, and if it's a close game there's a realistic chance that our bullpen blows it and we now go into extra innings where Sano's spot in the lineup bats again. It's already happened once this season.

 

You take your best hitter, you make him comfortable and you leave him alone. Yes, even at the expense of a veteran player.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Regarding Buxton... I think we assumed that we (meaning, the Twins) could be more patient with Buxton's offense because the rest of the offense would be good. Aside from Mauer (and Nunez) no one is hitting, everyone is striking out. 

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

 

Escobar still gets no respect.

[KGB]

Is it plausible that some of Sano's troubles at the plate are related to learning a new position in the field?  I think we heard that when Mauer was learning first?

 

There are many plausible reason for a slow start, he had a high strike out rate last year and had a high BABIP which he probably not going to retain. Teams have a better book on him and he needs to make more adjustments. He didn't come into the season in playing shape. Or it's just 7 games and he is a streaky hitter.

 

I think we are looking hard to blame the move to right just because we don't like the move.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Regarding Buxton... I think we assumed that we (meaning, the Twins) could be more patient with Buxton's offense because the rest of the offense would be good. Aside from Mauer (and Nunez) no one is hitting, everyone is striking out. 

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

 

Whoops! Saw your response to an earlier email too late. No need for my reply.

[dxpavelka]

 

Is it plausible that some of Sano's troubles at the plate are related to learning a new position in the field?  I think we heard that when Mauer was learning first?

I spent the entire offseason warning of just such a possibility and was assured by some folks on  this page who claim to be a whole lot smarter than me that I was just pulling impossible **** out of my ass.

[savvyspy]

 

So you don't see any opportunity for a player to improve his fielding ability?  No ability to get into better shape to improve mobility and work on his game in the outfield?  Nobody should have thought Sano was athletic enough to make the leap to playing the outfield?

 

I know we want to blame the FO for everything, but the players on the field have a part in the teams success or failure also.  Probably more than the FO.

This isn't your beer league softball league. Playing a position at the professional level takes years of experience. There have been exactly ZERO cases of anyone in the history of the game playing outfield at 270 lbs or more with any level of competence. Sano NEVER played one inning in the outfield at any professional level. You can't just say, well he's athletic so what the heck.

 

Players that have never played a position at a size and build that history tells you never should be attempted given its common sense track record does not fit any scenario where "players on the field have a part in the teams success" should be offered as a defense of it. Its like saying the Wild should move Dubnick to center because they have a need and "hey he's an athletic guy". That obvious and very predictable failure is on whomever suggested such a ridiculous idea not on the player forced to go along with it.

 

In this case, this train wreck is 100% on Terry Ryan and no one else. He basically has too many DHs on the roster and since for whatever reason Plouffe and Mauer, who are 1000x more suited to play outfield, can't be asked to attempt it, they moved a guy with no experience and at least 30 lbs heavier than the largest outfielders generally are to move out there with VERY predictable results.  

Edited April 12, 2016 by savvyspy

[deanlambrecht]

 

Well, it's not like Park becoming available was a surprise. They must have scouted him, and known they would bid on him. It shows, imo, a complete lack of foresight and planning. 

 

Basically, we are giving them a pass for not knowing the trade market for Plouffe, and for signing a 29 year old rookie....as if all of that only just happened to them, and was not predictable at all......as if them taking those actions was not, in any way, their action. This all just happened to them, and it was not predictable, and there was nothing they could do about it.

 

I think there are a few problems with this analysis.  First, we do know that the Twins has scouted Park for a long time.  That does not mean, however, that getting the winning bid on him was a sure deal.  They also knew, for instance, that other teams were scouting him and, particularly given Jung-ho Kang's success in Pittsburgh, that there would likely be a good number of aggressive bidders.  Further, it's a secret bidding process, so they had little idea about whether they would be the successful bidders.  That makes it quite a surprise that he ended up on our team.

 

Second, it's likely they were quite aware of the trade market for Plouffe.  We fans didn't know, of course, but in retrospect it's quite easy to see that there was little market for third basemen this offseason.  David Freese's eventual cheap contract painted that picture for us.  But the Twins weren't in the dark in that regard.  There is plenty of talk between teams, and Plouffe's value was probably well known.

 

Bottom line, Plouffe's value was likely well known in advance, and the possibility of landing Park was the statistical equivalent of drawing a wild card.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

There is some data that show right field is the least likely injury risk and third base the highest risk.  Third is a quick reaction position, which I would think would increase the risk of pulling muscles.  I'm not sure watching Sano diving for ball at third would be more healthy than running in the outfield.

This is good data and I followed the links, but I have to agree with LaBombo in that there are some validity issues, mainly that these articles and data are primarily focused on the relationship between production, aging, and they don't really get to the topic of how changing positions is going to affect the injury risk of our big, whiffing slugger. 

 

Also, who knew there was a team called the San Francisco Padres? small details and stuff

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hO9cuW2gX1ViAL-SA7LP5ggLHvs5POHY2po1oneetTE/edit#gid=4

 

I will continue to believe that the most pertinent data points are right in front of our face: Kyle Schwarber's ligaments and Danny Santana's hamstring. To that data we can add the near collision between You Know Who and You Know Who on a fifth inning single on Monday. At least that play took place in slow motion and it would have looked more like a clumsy embrace with at worst somebody getting a bloody lip, than what happened between Schwarber and Fowler in Chicago. 

 

But thanks again for the links. It's obvious that we all care about this issue even though we might disagree on the risk and its overall importance in the grand scheme. 

[KGB]

 

This isn't your beer league softball league. Playing a position at the professional level takes years of experience. There have been exactly ZERO cases of anyone in the history of the game playing outfield at 270 lbs or more with any level of competence. Sano NEVER played one inning in the outfield at any professional level. You can't just say, well he's athletic so what the heck.

 

Players that have never played a position at a size and build that history tells you never should be attempted given its common sense track record does not fit any scenario where "players on the field have a part in the teams success" should be offered as a defense of it. Its like saying the Wild should move Dubnick to center because they have a need and "hey he's an athletic guy". That obvious and very predictable failure is on whomever suggested such a ridiculous idea not on the player forced to go along with it.

 

In this case, this train wreck is 100% on Terry Ryan and no one else. He basically has too many DHs on the roster and since for whatever reason Plouffe and Mauer, who are 1000x more suited to play outfield, can't be asked to attempt it, they moved a guy with no experience and at least 30 lbs heavier than the largest outfielders generally are to move out there with VERY predictable results.  

I would bet that around May, once he get into shape, the results will be different and he'll start hitting.  Other players have made position changes and not gone into a slump.  I would think the weight on losing a child last year was a bigger burden then the position change.  He hit well in spring training and he probably going to hit his home runs in streaks.

 

As far as his size, I think Ryan wanted him closer to 245-250, not 265-270 when they planned on the position change.  The weight gain problem is on Sano, not Ryan.  Miguel Cabrera signed as a 185 lbs 16 year old (Sano was 190) and when he switched to outfield in the majors (only a couple games in the minors) he weighted 220 lbs. 

 

But, if it make everyone feel better, we can blame Ryan.

[ken]

Even as a liberal, I am never surprised by the lack of accountability we hold our athletes to,see Aarons Hicks. If he doesn't hit,Twins fault for rushing him. If he does hit,I told you.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think there are a few problems with this analysis.  First, we do know that the Twins has scouted Park for a long time.  That does not mean, however, that getting the winning bid on him was a sure deal.  They also knew, for instance, that other teams were scouting him and, particularly given Jung-ho Kang's success in Pittsburgh, that there would likely be a good number of aggressive bidders.  Further, it's a secret bidding process, so they had little idea about whether they would be the successful bidders.  That makes it quite a surprise that he ended up on our team.

 

Second, it's likely they were quite aware of the trade market for Plouffe.  We fans didn't know, of course, but in retrospect it's quite easy to see that there was little market for third basemen this offseason.  David Freese's eventual cheap contract painted that picture for us.  But the Twins weren't in the dark in that regard.  There is plenty of talk between teams, and Plouffe's value was probably well known.

 

Bottom line, Plouffe's value was likely well known in advance, and the possibility of landing Park was the statistical equivalent of drawing a wild card.

 

But they chose to bid.......it didn't happen to them. If you are going to bid, you need to have a plan....a good  plan, for how to use him. None of this happened to them, they made these choices. choices that led to Sano in the OF, for the first time in his entire life.

 

they also chose not to play him EVERY opportunity possible in spring training. They also chose to never have him play the OF in the minors. 

 

You may disagree, but all this shows the lack of foresight that leads to bad business decisions IMO.

[dxpavelka]

 

I would bet that around May, once he get into shape, the results will be different and he'll start hitting.  Other players have made position changes and not gone into a slump.  I would think the weight on losing a child last year was a bigger burden then the position change.  He hit well in spring training and he probably going to hit his home runs in streaks.

 

As far as his size, I think Ryan wanted him closer to 245-250, not 265-270 when they planned on the position change.  The weight gain problem is on Sano, not Ryan.  Miguel Cabrera signed as a 185 lbs 16 year old (Sano was 190) and when he switched to outfield in the majors (only a couple games in the minors) he weighted 220 lbs. 

 

But, if it make everyone feel better, we can blame Ryan.

The fact that Cabrera weighed 220 pounds when he switched to the outfield does nothing to lead me to believe that Sano will be successful doing so at 270.

 

[savvyspy]

 

I would bet that around May, once he get into shape, the results will be different and he'll start hitting.  Other players have made position changes and not gone into a slump.  I would think the weight on losing a child last year was a bigger burden then the position change.  He hit well in spring training and he probably going to hit his home runs in streaks.

 

As far as his size, I think Ryan wanted him closer to 245-250, not 265-270 when they planned on the position change.  The weight gain problem is on Sano, not Ryan.  Miguel Cabrera signed as a 185 lbs 16 year old (Sano was 190) and when he switched to outfield in the majors (only a couple games in the minors) he weighted 220 lbs. 

 

But, if it make everyone feel better, we can blame Ryan.

There isn't anyone with an IQ above 30 that would suggest Sano at 245lbs was in the same zip code of reality. Cabrera is an awful comparison. He hasn't played an inning in the outfield since 2005 which not so coincidentally is when he went from 230lbs to 255-260lbs he is now. Sano has never been in the majors below 260 lbs and is probably 275lbs now. 

 

This is very simple. There are ZERO players to play outfield at Sano's size LAST YEAR let alone 15lbs heavier which he is this year.

 

You can imagine a case where you can try to shift the blame away from Ryan but you need to use false comparisons and rely on Sano doing something that no one has ever effectively done before.

 

You might see asking a player to do that as part of Terry Ryan's genius but I view it has a very predicable failure that a clueless front office is now trying to CYA by using the EXACT same criticism of the player that they did with David Ortiz. 

[KGB]

 

There isn't anyone with an IQ above 30 that would suggest Sano at 245lbs was in the same zip code of reality. Cabrera is an awful comparison. He hasn't played an inning in the outfield since 2005 which not so coincidentally is when he went from 230lbs to 255-260lbs he is now. Sano has never been in the majors below 260 lbs and is probably 275lbs now. 

 

This is very simple. There are ZERO players to play outfield at Sano's size LAST YEAR let alone 15lbs heavier which he is this year.

 

You can imagine a case where you can try to shift the blame away from Ryan but you need to use false comparisons and rely on Sano doing something that no one has ever effectively done before.

 

You might see asking a player to do that as part of Terry Ryan's genius but I view it has a very predicable failure that a clueless front office is now trying to CYA by using the EXACT same criticism of the player that they did with David Ortiz. 

You are just missing the whole point, he doesn't have to be 270 lbs and the Twins didn't want him to be 270 lbs when they made the plan.  The excuse of it's just normal weight gain for a 22 year old is ridiculous, which is what my Cabrera example was used for.  If you want a more current example, look at Max Kepler, he was the same size as Sano at 16 and there is no comparison now.

 

I agree that at 270, he probably not going to be a good outfielder but at that weight he probably not going to be a good at third either.  He didn't have great minor league fielding reports and he now 20-30 lbs bigger.  And I agree with your point of Cabrera gaining weight as he grew older and stopped playing the outfield.  Now consider that with Sano, are we looking at a 300+ DH in a couple years?

 

Even at 250 lbs, Sano might not be a good outfielder because he might lack just the natural skills to play out there.  But I'm glad the front office isn't just coddling him and saying, "You have eaten yourself in the DH role at 22, we are just hoping you don't eat yourself out of the league by 30."  The irrational fear that the FO is somehow trying to CYA by feeding stories about his weight to the press is hilarious.  A reporter or anyone would have to be blind not to notice his weight.

 

Sano is this franchises future, everyone wants him to be the best player he can be and that is going to take work.

 

 

[KGB]

 

Even as a liberal, I am never surprised by the lack of accountability we hold our athletes to,see Aarons Hicks. If he doesn't hit,Twins fault for rushing him. If he does hit,I told you.

I'm afraid we are getting into Mauer territory where you are either:

 

a. Mauer is the greatest Twins player of all time and you can't question anything about him (or)

 

b. You are a Mauer hater