Article: Three-Bagger: Schwarber, Strikeouts And Kepler

[Nick Nelson]

At 0-6, the Twins are off to the worst start in franchise history. To say it was an ugly first week would be an understatement. Today, we’ll look at three noteworthy storylines that have emerged.* Last year, while Miguel Sano was enjoying an explosive second half with the Twins as a rookie, Kyle Schwarber was doing the same thing in the north side of Chicago. After joining the Cubs in mid-June, Schwarber slugged 16 home runs in 69 games, a debut that would have garnered more attention if it weren’t overshadowed by his teammate Kris Bryant.

 

Much like Sano, Schwarber is a big power hitter who probably fits best at DH. But of course, those don’t exist in the National League, and so the 23-year-old was slotted to play primarily in left field this year. That’s where his season came to an abrupt end last Thursday.

 

While going full bore after a fly ball in the gap, Schwarber collided with speedy center fielder Dexter Fowler, and writhed on the field in pain for several minutes before being carted off. An MRI later found that Schwarber had suffered full tears of the ACL and LCL in his left leg. Brutal.

 

As a Twins fan, it’s hard not to look at this series of events and think about Sano. He’s bigger and faster, has considerably less experience in the outfield than Schwarber, and plays next to a rangier center fielder (who of course has his own history with collisions).

 

The incident serves as another reminder that the risks of using Sano in the outfield extend beyond missed plays and extra runs. And while the Cubs have enough depth to survive the loss of Schwarber’s potent bat, Minnesota's lineup would be crippled by losing Sano for an extended period of time.

 

* Of course, that’s not an easy argument to make right now. Sano has looked rough in the first week of his sophomore campaign, striking out in 11 of his first 22 plate appearances while sputtering to a .431 OPS. Incredibly, he hasn’t been the least productive hitter in Minnesota’s outfield.

 

That distinction belongs to Byron Buxton, who looks flat-out overwhelmed. On the season, he is 3-for-19 with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. Everything is trending in the wrong direction. He’s watching hittable pitches sail by and he’s whiffing on everything when he does offer. Last year he swung through 13.5 percent of the pitches he saw in a rough debut; this year he’s at 18.2 percent.

 

Buxton’s defense redeems him somewhat and it’s hard to point a finger at any individual in Minnesota’s struggling lineup. But when he’s this tied up, you’ve got to start wondering if his development is being hindered.

 

Paul Molitor knows what he has in the 22-year-old, and he knew going in that patience was going to be required. But it gets trickier to be patient at 0-6, with the struggles this profound.

 

* Was the surprising call-up of Max Kepler over the weekend a reflection of this waning patience? Historically, the Twins have often shown reluctance to disable players with “day-to-day” type injuries, but when Danny Santana came up with a lame hamstring on Saturday, the team wasted no time placing him on the DL and calling up Kepler, who had played only two games with the Rochester affiliate that he’d been assigned to two weeks earlier.

 

Molitor said on Sunday that he doesn’t expect Kepler to have a prominent role during his time here, but the top prospect’s presence clearly increases the pressure on Buxton (not to mention Eddie Rosario, who’s batting .200 and swinging at 60 percent of pitches outside the zone). If the kid comes in and takes better at-bats, the manager will need to adjust accordingly.

 

With Buxton and Rosario, who have a combined 20-to-0 K/BB ratio, the bar is not set high. And sure enough, in his first plate appearance of the year on Sunday, Kepler battled back from an 0-2 count and drew a walk.

 

Click here to view the article

[Seth Stohs]

Regarding Buxton... I think we assumed that we (meaning, the Twins) could be more patient with Buxton's offense because the rest of the offense would be good. Aside from Mauer (and Nunez) no one is hitting, everyone is striking out. 

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

[jimmer]

 

Regarding Buxton... I think we assumed that we (meaning, the Twins) could be more patient with Buxton's offense because the rest of the offense would be good. Aside from Mauer (and Nunez) no one is hitting, everyone is striking out. 

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

Escobar was batting .444 going into today and he now has a .348 BA. Nunez has started one game and had a .000 BA going into today.

 

Escobar is doing fine.  Nunez will probably get the next three starts because of this one game.

Edited April 11, 2016 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

Escobar was batting .444 going into today and he now has a .348 BA. Nunez has started one game and had a .000 BA going into today.

 

Escobar is doing fine.  Nunez will probably get the next three starts because of this one game.

 

I dunno, Nunez took a 95MPH+ pitch to his throwing wrist- it didn't look like a glancing blow, either, methinks he might be limited to pinch runner duties for the next few days. assuming the X-Rays are negative. It will be interesting to see if the Twins are confident that he can play through this for at least a game or two as the only back-up infielder on the 25-man.

Edited April 11, 2016 by jokin

[mudcat14]

I was surprised Kepler got the call. Figured either Beresford or Polanco, with limited IF options on the big league roster.

[Darius]

1) I don't why people keep bringing up weight. It means nothing really, in the case of Sano or Santana. I wouldn't think there is any less risk if he was 230, instead of 280.

 

2). Sure, there is always risk at any position, including DH. The risk of injury when playing outfield, however, is not the same as DHing. That's clear. Schwarber wouldn't have torn his ACL, and would still be playing, if he could be DH'd. Assigning the same level of risk across the board is kind of preposterous. Why not minimize risk as much as possible?

 

3). It's different if Sano is a gold glover out there. But, he's not. He's bad. He's arguable cost the team a game already. I keep hearing "right field defense doesn't matter" from all of these people whose opinions are typically spot on. That's just not true. Right field defense was the lone difference between the Twins losing in the bottom of the ninth, and getting a chance to retake the lead in extra innings. Sure, a game here or there typically doesn't matter over the course of an MLB season....but there is also that rare time when a team loses a game 163, or finishes the season a couple of games out of the wildcard. Why not do everything you can to maximize your victories? Is DHing Park everyday really doing that, and putting Sano in RF really doing that (I don't care about sunk costs)? So many think it's a cut-and-dried yes. But, I think that's debatable.

 

4). There's also that pesky little thing called the future. Why teach your best player a new position? Especially when it's not realistic for him to be there long term. Let Sano be Sano, and have assets of significantly less value make a career altering change.

[jokin]

 

1) I don't why people keep bringing up weight. It means nothing really, in the case of Sano or Santana. I wouldn't think there is any less risk if he was 230, instead of 280.

 

 

Isaac Newton would have a bone to pick with you, being he established a basic law of physics and everything:

 

F = ma

 

F- Force

m- mass

a- acceleration

[Mr. Brooks]

Regarding Buxton... I think we assumed that we (meaning, the Twins) could be more patient with Buxton's offense because the rest of the offense would be good. Aside from Mauer (and Nunez) no one is hitting, everyone is striking out.

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

Come on Seth. You can't honestly believe the statement "all things have risk, therefore all things are equally risky", can you?

 

I mean, why do we even bother with seat belts, air bags, speed limits, child car seats, etc.?

After all, some people manage to die in spite of all these things.

[Steve J]

 

 

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

 

I think the difference is that it may be held that OF collisions can be best avoided with experience, which Sano does not have in the OF.  Collisions endanger multiple players, especially when one is listed at 260 lbs... 

 

Granted at this point the only swap they could make would be to put Plouffe in the OF (who has only 30 games as an outfielder), but I would think that his greater experience overall and lighter frame would reduce the risk.  

[jokin]

 

I think the difference is that it may be held that OF collisions can be best avoided with experience, which Sano does not have in the OF.  Collisions endanger multiple players, especially when one is listed at 260 lbs... 

 

Granted at this point the only swap they could make would be to put Plouffe in the OF (who has only 30 games as an outfielder), but I would think that his greater experience overall and lighter frame would reduce the risk.  

 

IMO, this "solution" of a positional swap should have been obviously inevitable back in 2014. provided TR was as hellbent on retaining Plouffe until he was elgiible for free agency as it now appears to have been the case. And then, as a bonus, they got Sano's lost TJ season that allowed them even more time to make these big positional decisions, and they still got it completely wrong.

 

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Come on Seth. You can't honestly believe the statement "all things have risk, therefore all things are equally risky", can you?

I mean, why do we even bother with seat belts, air bags, speed limits, child car seats, etc.?
After all, some people manage to die in spite of all these things.

 

Kind of talking about baseball and the positions and such. Sano's chances of getting hurt aren't significantly different in RF vs 3B...Definitely not life and death stuff.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Escobar was batting .444 going into today and he now has a .348 BA. Nunez has started one game and had a .000 BA going into today.

 

Escobar is doing fine.  Nunez will probably get the next three starts because of this one game.

 

Yup, I missed Escobar... my bad. He's been terrific.

[jimbo92107]

 

I dunno, Nunez took a 95MPH+ pitch to his throwing wrist- it didn't look like a glancing blow, either, methinks he might be limited to pinch runner duties for the next few days. assuming the X-Rays are negative. It will be interesting to see if the Twins are confident that he can play through this for at least a game or two as the only back-up infielder on the 25-man.

Just watched Nunez get hit. The only thing that might have saved that bone was that he tried to spin away from the ball. That might have reduced the impact energy just enough to prevent a break. Hoping.

[jimbo92107]

Kepler's first at-bat was one of the most impressive I've seen for a guy that didn't swing once. He took six pitches without swinging, but that pitcher sure thought Kepler looked like he could swing. Even better, on ball four you could see Kepler laying off. He actually recognized that it was tailing outside soon enough to not swing. 

 

Impressive I say, in my deep baritone voice. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Kind of talking about baseball and the positions and such. Sano's chances of getting hurt aren't significantly different in RF vs 3B...Definitely not life and death stuff.

Fair enough, I'll stick to baseball.

Why bother bringing in your best pitcher with the game on the line? After all Mariano Rivera is the best closer of all time but he gave up a run one time so it really doesn't matter if you bring in him or Casey Fien, since they will both sometimes give up a run, and will both sometimes not give up a run.

 

I disagree that it's not significant.

I think it's many times more likely a guy his size gets hurt playing a position where:

A) He's never played in his life.

He has to run at full speed many times per game. Something rarely if ever done at 3B.

C) There is a chance of him colliding at full speed with another player also running at full speed. Another thing unlikely to ever happen at 3B.

[USAFChief]

 

Is there... data for that?

 

Because if you're asserting that it's true on an intuitive level, that's, well, I guess 'questionable' is the polite word.

Is there data for the opposite opinion?

 

 

[LaBombo]

 

Kind of talking about baseball and the positions and such. Sano's chances of getting hurt aren't significantly different in RF vs 3B...Definitely not life and death stuff.

 

 

Is there... like, data or something for that?

 

Because if you're asserting that it's true on an intuitive level, that's questionable at the very best.   Mr. Brooks raises a couple of pretty strong arguments against the idea that RF doesn't represent a higher injury risk for Sano, and my guess is that there might be others.

 

At any rate, the defense here at TD of the Twins' forced position change of Sano has been an interesting one, coming as it does on the heels of several years of the fairly common, seemingly almost reflexive shooting down of outside-the-box ideas put forth by some posters during the lean times that the Twins attempt in order to put a better team on the field.

 

'Players aren't Roto cards or Xbox avatars, you can't just shuffle them around to different positions and/ or different teams like they are' was how the argument went, or words to that effect.  Much was made of how there are egos, comfort levels, franchise good will, and a boatload of other intangibles to consider, in addition to the more tangible variables like, in the case of position change, defense.

 

But now Sano is charging around right field like a near-sighted rhino when he's not being a mess at the plate, Kyle Schwarber's left ACL is shredded, and, thanks in part to both injuries and the Sano move, the Twins are currently the proud owners of zero reserve infielders capable of playing anywhere but first.

 

So how much more has to happen before the 'Players aren't Roto cards' rule applies to the Twins coaching staff and front office, and not just to TD 'dreamers'?   

Edited April 11, 2016 by LaBombo

[The Wise One]

 

Is there data for the opposite opinion?

The people who complain that Sano in the outfield is a danger to his health would be the ones to have the data to say that it is more likely for him to get hurt. So far all I have ever seen is speculation without data. If one argues for a change from the status quo, saying prove me wrong is not the best way to prove the argument. 

[The Wise One]

 

Isaac Newton would have a bone to pick with you, being he established a basic law of physics and everything:

 

F = ma

 

F- Force

m- mass

a- acceleration

As the comparison was Sano to Santana for your counterpoint, considering Santana's injury are you saying Sano then should not run.?  Inciarte hurt his on the basebath.   Ethier injured his leg with a foul ball. Perhaps then by the equation, Sano better not bat as given his weight, he might shatter his leg with a foul ball.

[h2oface]

 

Escobar was batting .444 going into today and he now has a .348 BA. Nunez has started one game and had a .000 BA going into today.

 

Escobar is doing fine.  Nunez will probably get the next three starts because of this one game.

 

I bet not. I bet he doesn't even get the next start in game 7.

[h2oface]

I don't think Sano in the outfield is a danger to his own health - I think that Sano is a danger to the health of his teammates! Particularly Buxton, Dozier, and Mauer. Buxton especially, as he would probably be going at a terrific speed if they collided. 

 

I was happy to see Sano stick up for himself on that horrible call by plate umpire John Hirschbeck. The pitch he was tossed over was way outside and called a strike 3. Sure, arguing is an automatic ejection, but that was a horrible call. Hirschbeck needed ejected.

 

 

(Hirschbeck then called several balls strikes that May threw in the 10th). It was great that Sano did get booted, because Kepler had a great at bat and a great catch that Sano would never make in the 9th. 

 

[KGB]

 

Is there... like, data or something for that?

 

Because if you're asserting that it's true on an intuitive level, that's questionable at the very best.   Mr. Brooks raises a couple of pretty strong arguments against the idea that RF doesn't represent a higher injury risk for Sano, and my guess is that there might be others.

 

At any rate, the defense here at TD of the Twins' forced position change of Sano has been an interesting one, coming as it does on the heels of several years of the fairly common, seemingly almost reflexive shooting down of outside-the-box ideas put forth by some posters during the lean times that the Twins attempt in order to put a better team on the field.

 

'Players aren't Roto cards or Xbox avatars, you can't just shuffle them around to different positions and/ or different teams like they are' was how the argument went, or words to that effect.  Much was made of how there are egos, comfort levels, franchise good will, and a boatload of other intangibles to consider, in addition to the more tangible variables like, in the case of position change, defense.

 

But now Sano is charging around right field like a near-sighted rhino when he's not being a mess at the plate, Kyle Schwarber's left ACL is shredded, and, thanks in part to both injuries and the Sano move, the Twins are currently the proud owners of zero reserve infielders capable of playing anywhere but first.

 

So how much more has to happen before the 'Players aren't Roto cards' rule applies to the Twins coaching staff and front office, and not just to TD 'dreamers'?   

http://makenolittleplans.net/age-position-and-injury-risk-in-baseball/

 

There is some data that show right field is the least likely injury risk and third base the highest risk.  Third is a quick reaction position, which I would think would increase the risk of pulling muscles.  I'm not sure watching Sano diving for ball at third would be more healthy than running in the outfield.

[TheLeviathan]

Regarding the Sano in outfield injury thing... Danny Santana's at least 80-100 pounds less than Sano. He got hurt. More proof, anyone can get hurt, so there will be injury risk with Sano playing OF, or 3B or DH... so, unless they just keep him on the bench and decide that he isn't going to play at all, he's at risk... as is everyone.

Weight is only part of it. Santana's injury was on an awkward route/run that missed a ball and caused him to turn in a hurry on the run. In other words: an injury caused by someone who has not yet developed instincts or competency at a new position.

 

On that, the injury is a warning on Sano. So is Schwarber who, despite his size, did nothing to prevent his knee from getting destroyed.

 

A few weeks ago I insisted we not give the a Twins cover - good or bad - for their decisions this offseason. That needs to continue to be the case and so far the results haven't been worth all the defense they got.

[Major League Ready]

 

1) I don't why people keep bringing up weight. It means nothing really, in the case of Sano or Santana. I wouldn't think there is any less risk if he was 230, instead of 280.

2). Sure, there is always risk at any position, including DH. The risk of injury when playing outfield, however, is not the same as DHing. That's clear. Schwarber wouldn't have torn his ACL, and would still be playing, if he could be DH'd. Assigning the same level of risk across the board is kind of preposterous. Why not minimize risk as much as possible?

3). It's different if Sano is a gold glover out there. But, he's not. He's bad. He's arguable cost the team a game already. I keep hearing "right field defense doesn't matter" from all of these people whose opinions are typically spot on. That's just not true. Right field defense was the lone difference between the Twins losing in the bottom of the ninth, and getting a chance to retake the lead in extra innings. Sure, a game here or there typically doesn't matter over the course of an MLB season....but there is also that rare time when a team loses a game 163, or finishes the season a couple of games out of the wildcard. Why not do everything you can to maximize your victories? Is DHing Park everyday really doing that, and putting Sano in RF really doing that (I don't care about sunk costs)? So many think it's a cut-and-dried yes. But, I think that's debatable.

4). There's also that pesky little thing called the future. Why teach your best player a new position? Especially when it's not realistic for him to be there long term. Let Sano be Sano, and have assets of significantly less value make a career altering change.

You speak of maximizing victories in #3 and then the future in #4.  Quite often they don't go together.  There are too many players to name that benefited greatly for a position change.  Good thing KC's management was willing to experiment with Alex Gordon.

 

Now, if they did this to accommodate Plouffe, that would be very short sighted.  However, if they just did not believe Sano could stick at 3B, then this is all about the future and therefore a worthy experiment. 

Edited April 11, 2016 by Major Leauge Ready

[TheLeviathan]

 

You speak of maximizing victories in #3 and then the future in #4.  Quite often they don't go together.  There are too many players to name that benefited greatly for a position change.  Good thing KC's management was willing to experiment with Alex Gordon.

 

Alex Gordon got moved, in part, because he wasn't hitting and demonstrably fielding poorly.  I wouldn't compare his situation with Sano's.  

[Mike Sixel]

If only they had had a chance to play him in RF in the minors last year, but then, apparently, this wasn't the plan even 9 months ago.....that's the issue here. This was not the plan when last year started, otherwise he would have played OF in the minors some. The real question is, why did this become the plan? If this was even in the back of their minds, why not get him some time in the OF?

[alarp33]

 

If only they had had a chance to play him in RF in the minors last year, but then, apparently, this wasn't the plan even 9 months ago.....that's the issue here. This was not the plan when last year started, otherwise he would have played OF in the minors some. The real question is, why did this become the plan? If this was even in the back of their minds, why not get him some time in the OF?

 

Because they did not expect to win the bidding on Park, and did not expect there to be no trade market for an ok at best 3rd baseman making $8 million.  I really think it is as simple as that, as stupid as it may sound.  Complete panic by a short sighted organization

[Pardon My Dinger]

I never really fell one way or another on the "why risk screwing with Sano's bat by playing him in a new position" argument. But so far, I think that's what's going down. 

 

When he missed that ball yesterday, he looked shaken--almost like he was welling up. The next thing he did? Take his frustration out on the umpire (yes, it was a terrible call, etc). He hates playing out there. It's embarrassing for him and he's forcing things at the plate as a matter of overcompensation.

 

Just let the boy hit home runs! He's a good boy! For the love of god, just let him hit the ball!

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because they did not expect to win the bidding on Park, and did not expect there to be no trade market for an ok at best 3rd baseman making $8 million.  I really think it is as simple as that, as stupid as it may sound.  Complete panic by a short sighted organization

 

Well, it's not like Park becoming available was a surprise. They must have scouted him, and known they would bid on him. It shows, imo, a complete lack of foresight and planning. 

 

Basically, we are giving them a pass for not knowing the trade market for Plouffe, and for signing a 29 year old rookie....as if all of that only just happened to them, and was not predictable at all......as if them taking those actions was not, in any way, their action. This all just happened to them, and it was not predictable, and there was nothing they could do about it.

[Major League Ready]

 

Alex Gordon got moved, in part, because he wasn't hitting and demonstrably fielding poorly.  I wouldn't compare his situation with Sano's.  

Fair enough but what about the many other players that have benefited as have their teams by switching positions.  This is a pretty common thing and I would guess just bet every MLB team has had a player that they decided just would not cut it at their intended position and then switched them at the major league level.  Having said this, I think their is a pretty good chance this decision was a product of being at the bottom of the league in OPS last year as well as an unwillingness to accept this team had no real shot of winning the division