Teams that start 0-6.

[Mr. Brooks]

I've seen a lot of posters who, while obviously disappointed with the start, have said it's only 6 games.

True, it's only 6 out of 162, but it seemed to me that still is a pretty big hole to dig out of.

So, I decided to take advantage of baseball references streak analyzer to see how often teams have started out 0-6, and how they've fared.

 

Since 1900, 46 teams have started a season 0-6.

 

17 of them have lost 100 (or an equivalent winning percentage in less than 162 games) or more games.

 

31 of them have lost 90 or more games.

 

38 of them finished under .500.

 

Only 3 times have they made the playoffs: 1974 Pirates, 1995 Reds, 2011 Rays.

 

Just 2 times have they won their division: The 2011 Rays were a wildcard.

 

None have won a playoff series.

 

So, in conclusion, while still remotely possible, the odds of making the playoffs are now pretty remote, about 6.5 percent. While the odds of losing 90 plus games are at about 70 percent.

[parrothead]

Well, someone has to be the first team! Go Twins!

I still believe! The rotation looks great currently, possibly the best overall rotation in baseball so far, and the bats will come around.

The Twins haven't even played a home game yet either! They can make the wild card easily enough.

[Mike Sixel]

I would guess to make the wild card, they will have to win 12 more games than they lose, the rest of the way. Maybe 14. That seems like a tall order.

[h2oface]

Fans deserve way better than this comedy of errors. Something is so not right. Karma is screaming.

[jimmer]

Time to book my reservations to Minnesota for October.

[spinowner]

 

I would guess to make the wild card, they will have to win 12 more games than they lose, the rest of the way. Maybe 14. That seems like a tall order.

Probably more than that. If 88 wins are needed to be the second wild card that means 88-68.

[Mike Sixel]

Probably more than that. If 88 wins are needed to be the second wild card that means 88-68.

Ouch. 20 games over?

[USAFChief]

Ouch. 20 games over?

Pfft. Easy. Heck, they were 13 games over just in May last year!

[jay]

Well, get the pressure out of the way early.... Ack.

[markos]

 

I would guess to make the wild card, they will have to win 12 more games than they lose, the rest of the way. Maybe 14. That seems like a tall order.

 

I'm thinking along those same lines, but with a slightly different horizon. Basically, they need to be "in contention" by the trade deadline. If they are close, then they can make the team better via trades and then (hopefully) make up ground by beating up on teams that have fallen from contention over the last two months. For example, last year the Mets were 53-50 at the trade deadline and then went 37-22 the rest of the way.  So my goal for the team is to be above .500 at the trade deadline. 53-51. That works out to 53-45 between now and then, which is basically a 88-win pace over a full season. That's doable. 

[spinowner]

 

Ouch. 20 games over?

There are 156 games remaining. Breaking it down into four 37-game increments makes it seem less daunting. Achieving an 88-win season means going 22-17 in each of those increments.

[Old Twins Cap]

Didn't take long, but the mystery is over:  the Twins will not be in the post-season this year.

 

But, that was always a dicey proposition anyway, playing in the AL Central.

 

The main thing now is to make progress and grow players.  A high draft pick would be a bonus.  Most likely they muddle through and play close to .500 ball.

 

No real scapegoats in this:  young hitters at key positions,  a rotation that is capable but not able to win on their own, an aging backend to the bullpen, a feckless GM who hopes and gut-checks his way to making decisions.

 

I still think the Twins will be good, but the question of when keeps slipping every year.  Probably 2018 or so.

[Pius Jefferson]

How depressing. 

[Willihammer]

Starting 0-6 sucks but its not like they were home games against the Brewers and Angels or something. Then I would be more worried. 

 

This roadtrip could wind up being the toughest 6 games stretch all year.

[Blake]

I took a look at the numbers from streak analyzer and you have to look a little deeper into the numbers.

 

The cut-off for teams that made the play-offs is a run differential of -20 in the first 6 games. In other words, every single team that made the playoffs had a run differential of -20 or less.

 

The Twins, with a current run differential of -14 are on the side of "there's still a chance."

 

However, there are some really ugly numbers when run differential is sorted.. For instance, Cleveland in 1914, sported a run differential of -8 in the first 6 games and still managed to go 51-102. Pittsburgh, in 2006, was -10 in the first six games and wound up 67-95.

 

(copied the output from Streak Analyzer into a text file and imported into a spreadsheet after formatting the text file. Sort!)

[twinsnorth49]

I can't decide whether I should feel better or worse now.

[jimbo92107]

...

So, in conclusion, while still remotely possible, the odds of making the playoffs are now pretty remote, about 6.5 percent. While the odds of losing 90 plus games are at about 70 percent.

...and if you combine that with NFL teams that lose their first 6 games, it looks even worse!

[Minniman]

 

Since 1900, 46 teams have started a season 0-6.

17 of them have lost 100 (or an equivalent winning percentage in less than 162 games) or more games.

31 of them have lost 90 or more games.

38 of them finished under .500.

Only 3 times have they made the playoffs: 1974 Pirates, 1995 Reds, 2011 Rays.

Just 2 times have they won their division: The 2011 Rays were a wildcard.

None have won a playoff series.

So, in conclusion, while still remotely possible, the odds of making the playoffs are now pretty remote, about 6.5 percent. While the odds of losing 90 plus games are at about 70 percent.

 

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/dc/dc2fd6da2c741a3b2f6ae5fcf700e06fafe43267ea271579118ef4292ffb25c6.jpg

[Halsey Hall]

What's the odds of losing 7 straight?  50-50

[Pardon My Dinger]

If they win today, Twins are 1-6. They were 1-6 last year early on. 

 

Every team is going to lose 60 games, and every team is going to win 60 games. The Twins are going to continue to improve all year as young relievers filter in, Kepler finds a spot, Berrios takes the mound, etc...

[Ncgo4]

Well they're 0-7 now. Can someone redo the numbers? Wait...please don't.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

Well they're 0-7 now. Can someone redo the numbers? Wait...please don't.

of all of the teams that started 0-7 the highest end of the season finish was 3rd place.....

[Kwak]

Last year, the Twins owned the Orioles 7-0, and dominated the mighty whiteies.  This year is off to a worse start than just 0-7.

[wavedog]

The good news is that they won't lose tomorrow! Hopefully the bats will warm up with the weather.