Article: Player Predictions: RF Miguel Sano

[Seth Stohs]

On July 1st, we learned officially that the Twins had called up Miguel Sano from AA Chattanooga and would be their DH the rest of the season. The Twins needed a bat, and Sano provided so much more than ever could have been hoped. He provided power in the middle of the lineup and a jolt that the Twins really needed. In fact, he was named the team’s MVP despite spending only half of the season with the big club.

 

So, what is in store for him in 2016? Well, let’s try to put together a prediction, but then let’s sit back and watch and enjoy!

 

Miguel Sano has been talked about for years. The Twins signed him for $3.15 million in October of 2009, but he was well-known in scouting circles for several years all ready. He was immensely talented, big, strong and growing.

 

He had a huge year in 2013 and was invited to big league camp in 2014. Unfortunately, he missed the full season due to Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2015 and really struggled for the first month in Chattanooga. We found out last month that there was a lot going on in his personal life. But it wasn’t long into May when he took off and for the next six or seven weeks, he destroyed the AA pitching in the Southern League. He came to the Twins and played great. Along with being the Twins choice for MVP, he was also their top rookie. He finished behind only Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor in Rookie of the Year voting.

 

The Twins signed Byung Ho Park from Korea to DH and play some first base. They were unable to trade Trevor Plouffe (whether they tried to or not). Torii Hunter decided to retire. They insisted (and Sano consistently agreed) that they did not want him to be a full-time DH at 22 or 23. So the decision was made to have him move out to right field.

 

Hunter was the Twins primary right fielder in 2015 though others played there as well. Twins right fielders hit .239 which ranked 27th in baseball. The .283 on-base percentage ranked 29th. The .400 slugging percentage ranked 22nd. Twins right fielders were 23rd in runs, 24th in doubles, 14th in home runs.

 

Let’s just say that I think Miguel Sano will be able to help the Twins improve their rankings in right field.Word of Warning: I fear that Sano’s debut performance, along with the prospect status bestowed upon him for almost a decade now, may have set the bar unfairly high for the slugger. As you’ll see below, I am as guilty as anyone in that category. I think it’s important to remember that he will not turn 23-years-old until May 11.

 

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

15.8% - Everyone knows that Miguel Sano will be breaking the Twins single-season strikeout record in 2016. Not only did he end up working a full count in 28% of his at-bats (hat tip Nick Nelson), but got on via the walk 15.8% of the time. Next highest in the American League last year was Mike Trout at 21%.

 

It’s amazing to think that a guy who could break not only the Twins single-season record for strikeouts but also the MLB record puts together great at-bats. That said, if he can reduce the strikeouts, imagine how much more damage he can do.

 

15.8% of his plate appearances resulted in a walk, but don’t worry. It is highly unlikely that he will break the Twins record. In fact, Harmon Killebrew topped that number in eight seasons with the Twins, peaking in 1969 when he walked in 20.5% of his 707 plate appearances.

 

And just for some comparison, Joe Mauer's best season in terms of walk percentage was 14.0% in 2012. His career walk rate is 11.9%. In other words, Miguel Sano will likely walk at a significantly higher rate than Joe Mauer ever has in his career.

 

3 - Miguel Sano should bat third in the Twins lineup most games for several reasons. First, it would sure be nice for him to get a plate appearances right away in the first inning. Sure, if he bats fourth, if he hits in the first inning, it is with a runner on base. However, for the same reason we don’t mind Brian Dozier putting the Twins ahead 1-0 in the first, having Sano make that possible each game is also good. If Dozier and Mauer are on base, it could be two or three to nothing. After the first inning, it is also possible that Byron Buxton will be on base when Sano comes to the plate.

 

In 2015, Twins fourth batters came to the plate 688 times. Their number three hitters had 703 times. While it’s only 2.5 to 3.0 plate appearances per month, it adds up over the course of the year.

 

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Miguel Sano: 554 At-bats, .287/.398/.538 (.936), 37 doubles, 1 triples, 35 home runs.

• The Twins are going to want Sano in the lineup every day. He will continue to be thrown into right field, through the good, the bad and the ugly most days. When he isn’t, it is likely he will get quite a few games as a DH as well. That will allow Byung Ho Park to get some time at first base and give Joe Mauer a few days off.
• I don’t expect Sano to break the single-season MLB strikeout record (223), but he will certainly break Dozier’s strikeout record at 148.
• While I want to say that he won’t walk as often as he did in 2015 (15.8%), I have a hard time believing that he will walk any less. Hence, I gave him an IsoD of .111. I also think that he has the ability to hit for a decent average too. I’m not saying he’s going to hit .330 like he did for a half-season in Ft. Myers, but I don’t think .300 is out of the realm of possibility for him in time.
• As I was thinking through some predictions for Sano in 2016, one thought came to my mind. If Miguel Sano were to spend the full season with the Twins and stay healthy, what if he “only” hit 29 home runs. Would Twins fans be disappointed? There seems to be a general acceptance that he is a given to hit 35 homers a year, but that isn’t as easy as people want to think. That said, I put him at 35 home runs.
• If he were to post the .936 OPS that I suggest above, only six players in MLB had an OPS higher than that in 2015.

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Miguel Sano in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

Eduardo Escobar

Eddie Rosario

Byron Buxton

 

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[DocBauer]

Except for the endless debate of where he should be playing, or where he will be playing in '17 or beyond, I think you just did a "mic drop" Seth.

[Rezzy]

I have no idea what his numbers are going to look like by the end of the year.

 

But, I am almost positive it's going to be really fun to watch.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

I've tried to moderate expectations, but barring injury it's hard to see over 650 PAs how Sano doesn't put up at least a .270/.370/.500 line with 35 2B and 30 HR. That's assuming say 160Ks / 90BB. And he has a chance to be better than that.

 

It seems insane to expect that as a floor for a 22 year old with half a season under his belt, but that's where I find myself. Just hope he can stay healthy out there in RF.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Except for the endless debate of where he should be playing, or where he will be playing in '17 or beyond, I think you just did a "mic drop" Seth.

 

I thought about mentioning or linking somehow to those stories, but 1.) They're old topics, 2.) he's playing RF this year and likely beyond

[jimbo92107]

If Sano actually stays healthy and has around 700 at bats, he could easily clear 40 home runs. 35 to me is his baseline. Under 30 would indicate something physically wrong with him.

[tobi0040]

The strikeouts depend on approach. Most guys dial their swing back with two strikes. He currently does not.

 

Even if he doesn't, it is what it is. He is a great power hitter who has the rare ability to walk a ton.

[Eephus]

For how hard he hits the ball (when he hits it), less than 30 homers to me would mean more doubles. Sano (please correct me if I'm wrong...this is a hunch not a data driven comment) seems like a guy whose non homers would tend to be hard hit doubles or hard hits singles more than moon shots that land at the warning track. 

[highlander]

I'm guessing 250,100,40. That's 250 K's, 100 walks, and 40 round trip tickets!

[markos]

Projection systems:

 

Marcels
.272 .368 .497 .865

Steamer
.257 .345 .510 .855

ZIPS
.249 .337 .491 .828

PECOTA
.245 .339 .496 .835

 

What does everything think Sano's true talent BABIP will be? Last year he had a .396 BABIP, which I don't think is sustainable. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he regularly is in the .320-.340 range.

[Tommygun921]

I just have a hard time thinking he'll be able to stay healthy all year running around in the outfield. But at the same time he's young. 475 AB, .275, .380, .520. 30 dbs and 28 hr.

[Target Field of Dreams]

Great piece Seth! Love your approach of laying out your predictions but also being mindful that this is a 22 year old guy we are talking about and we need to give him time to develop and grow as well. Sometimes as fans we can be pretty unfair to the guys when they don't immediately meet our grandiose expectations. With that being said, I am pretty optimistic that Sano will in fact meet them or come close to them and am excited to watch him play.

[Vanimal46]

Numbers like Seth projected would certainly put him in the top 3 of MVP voting.. I think we'll see those numbers in the future, but probably not this year. I'm going to be curious who will hit behind Sano to keep the opposing pitchers honest. 

 

.267 BA / .830 OPS / 31 HR / 25+ IBB

[Loosey]

.270/.356/.530 (.886 OPS)

 

36 HR, 34 Doubles, 90 walks

[HitInAPinch]

"working a full count in 28% of his at-bats (hat tip Nick Nelson), but got on via the walk 15.8% of the time."

 

Help me out here.  Is the 15.8% walk rate based on total AB's or is it "and of those full count AB's, he walked only 15.8% of the time." ?  

 

Is it possible that Sano turns into a triple digit BB/K guy like Thome?

Edited March 30, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[puckstopper1]

265/.360/.535 (.896 OPS)

31 HR, 34 Doubles, 85 walks, 155Ks

 

and a number that I don't see commenting on above, 102 RBI.

[Willihammer]

 

"working a full count in 28% of his at-bats (hat tip Nick Nelson), but got on via the walk 15.8% of the time."

 

Help me out here.  Is the 15.8% walk rate based on total AB's or is it "and of those full count AB's, he walked only 15.8% of the time." ?  

 

Is it possible that Sano turns into a triple digit BB/K guy like Thome?

BB-Ref has splits here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=sanomi01&year=Career&t=b

 

Sano worked 93 full counts, took 42 walks and struckout 30 times. Also hit 7 HRs. So 45% of the time he walked and 85% of the time a full count ended in a true outcome.

[Willihammer]

Think about that. Sano worked the count full 93 times out of 335 PAs. More frequently than Bryce Harper or Joey Votto. A  case could be made we had the most entertaining hitter in baseball last year.

Edited March 30, 2016 by Willihammer

[twinsnorth49]

I'm not tuning in to watch him play RF anyway, doesn't matter to me.

[Blake]

 

I'm not tuning in to watch him play RF anyway, doesn't matter to me.

Admit it, you're into seeing baseballs abused.

 

 

[twinsnorth49]

 

Admit it, you're into seeing baseballs abused.

[Mike Sixel]

He's awesome, but I think he's more like top 12 hitter, than top 3 hitter this year. I think most of the projections here are toward the high end of what could be expected. 

 

28 home runs, .275 batting average, 30 doubles, 2 stolen bases (you know he'll get some), lots of "that ball gets by Sano, and is going to the wall" type descriptions that we will mostly try to ignore.

[birddog]

I agree with most of the projections for Sano, but I get even more excited about the fact that if he averages 6 pitches seen per AB he should become an almost given 40+ HR man for many years to come if he stays healthy and learns better how to read pitches. He will indeed K a lot this year and in the future, but if they are swinging Ks and not looking we will have great entertainment most of his ABs.

 

I like him at #3. If Mauer is again Mauerlike and getting on base at a near .400 clip, Sano will have many chances for RBI's. And if Park and Plouffe have good years hitting behind him, pitchers will have to challenge him. Sano loves a challenge!

[Mike Sixel]

guys, have all the optimism you want.....but almost no one hits 40 HRs anymore, I don't want you all to be disappointed in life if that doesn't happen.

[blindeke]

Key question for me: Will he be better or worse the Delmon Young in the outfield?

[Blake]

 

Key question for me: Will he be better or worse the Delmon Young in the outfield?

Yes?

[HitInAPinch]

 

BB-Ref has splits here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=sanomi01&year=Career&t=b

 

Sano worked 93 full counts, took 42 walks and struckout 30 times. Also hit 7 HRs. So 45% of the time he walked and 85% of the time a full count ended in a true outcome.

Interesting stats.  Thanks!

[Vanimal46]

 

Key question for me: Will he be better or worse the Delmon Young in the outfield?

Concur. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

guys, have all the optimism you want.....but almost no one hits 40 HRs anymore, I don't want you all to be disappointed in life if that doesn't happen.

Almost no one hits the ball as hard as Sano does. 

[Vanimal46]

Good times, guys.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUrHS_g4k6c