Article: Player Predictions: LF Eddie Rosario

[Seth Stohs]

It was a surprise in early May when the Twins decided to promote Eddie Rosario from AAA Rochester instead of Aaron Hicks. The idea was for him to spend a couple of weeks in The Show and then head back to Rochester. He homered on the first pitch he saw in the big leagues and played well enough to stick with the Twins the rest of the season.

 

In fact, he more than did “just enough.” He played quite well and earned every day playing time. In 122 games, he hit .267/.289/.459 (.758). He certainly filled out the stat sheet. He had 18 doubles, 15 triples and 13 home runs. He added 11 stolen bases.

 

He also played some great outfield defense. He primarily roamed the vast and spacious left field at Target Field, but he also spent 34 games in right field. In all, he recorded 16 outfield assists with a powerful and accurate arm. One quick prediction; he will have fewer assists in 2016 because it is unlikely that runners will try to take an extra base on his arm any longer.

 

So what is in store for the talented outfielder from Puerto Rico in 2016?The phrase “No one walks off the island” originated when there was an influx of players from the Dominican Republic who needed to impress big league scouts with their ability to hit. The same can be said of players from another island, Puerto Rico. Rosario has always been a very aggressive hitter. In the low levels, he put up great numbers. In parts of two seasons in AA, he has struggled to get on base. In between, he endured a 50-game suspension. Last year, he had just 23 games in AAA before being promoted.

 

It’s no surprise that he struggled to just a .289 on base percentage. In fact, few players swing at as many pitches inside (or outside) of the strike zone than Rosario did in 2015. There were times he swung at fastballs above his eyes and homered, and there were a lot of times he swung at a curve ball well off of (or in front of) the plate and missed.

 

Last year, Rosario played left field in just over half of the Twins games. Twins left fielders were 12th in baseball with a .265 batting average. They were 25th in on-base percentage at .301. They rank ninth in slugging percentage at .442, and their .743 OPS was 15th in the big leagues. Thanks to Rosario, the Twins led baseball with 16 triples in 2015.

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

0.022 - With a .289 on-base percentage and a .267 batting average, Rosario posted a .022 Isolated Discipline (IsoD) during his rookie season. He’s unlikely to post an IsoD anywhere near the 0.058 IsoD that was the average in the American League. So, a lot of his success is going to be batting average and extra base pop related.

 

Rosario is going to swing a lot. He’ll miss a lot. He’ll produce some extra base hits and he’ll likely strikeout a lot. The key for me will be seeing improvements. Hopefully, he can take a few more walks. Hopefully he can have a little more control of the strike zone, finding a way to swing at fewer pitches outside the strike zone. Pitchers will adjust to him, and he is going to have to show the ability to adjust back to them.

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Eddie Rosario: 551 at-bats, .282/.316/.457 (.773), 28 doubles, 9 triples, 17 home runs.

 

Many see Rosario as a regression candidate. I can understand that. Twins fans understand regression fully after seeing what happened with Danny Santana from 2014 to 2015. While I can understand that thinking, I think it is a little flawed. While Santana’s 2014 numbers came completely out of nowhere, Rosario’s were not so out of this world as to think they are not replicable, or hopefully even something that he could improve upon.

 

So, I have him hitting for a little better batting average with a slightly improved IsoD. At the same time, with a full season, I think we’ll see a little drop in isolated power (IsoP), maybe even if it only be the reduction in triples. Overall, it’s a small improvement in OPS

 

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Eddie Rosario in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

Eduardo Escobar

 

Click here to view the article

[lightfoot789]

275/.305/.475 (.780), 35 doubles, 7 triples, 20 home runs.

Impact bat that will get better as year progresses

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think he regresses personally.  Fortunately, the team has plenty of options if he does.  If he doesn't, that will be even better, as he plays above average D and can be above average with the stick.  His minor league numbers were pretty good (excepting the year of his suspension), so I suspect long term, he's going to be a major leaguer... I just wouldn't be surprised at all if he has a bumpy first few years. 

[markos]

Projection systems:
Marcels
.269 .304 .457 .761

 

ZIPS
.256 .287 .415 .702

 

Steamer
.257 .291 .411 .702

 

PECOTA
.250 .280 .402 .682

[mikelink45]

Get the triples number up.  No idea about the others, but this is a player who likes to take that third base (the most exciting hit in baseball).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Many see Rosario as a regression candidate. I can understand that. Twins fans understand regression fully after seeing what happened with Danny Santana from 2014 to 2015. While I can understand that thinking, I think it is a little flawed. While Santana’s 2014 numbers came completely out of nowhere, Rosario’s were not so out of this world as to think they are not replicable, or hopefully even something that he could improve upon.

True, major regression like Danny Santana is unlikely.  But I think Rosario is a decent stagnation candidate, hovering in the 90-something OPS+ range.  With the extremes he is currently at for strikeouts and lack of walks, I'm not sure how one can predict immediate improvement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also Seth, you seem to be predicting +.020 in batting average for just about every player.  Does that mean you are predicting a big cutback in strikeouts for all of these guys?  Sometimes I think it's too easy to add 20 points of batting average as a reasonable expectation for improvement, without considering how they achieve that other than good luck.

 

Rosario, if he strikes out at the same rate in 2016 (and he showed no signs of slowing over the course of the season last year), he would need a 22 point jump in BABIP, up to .354, to achieve your "modest" 15 point increase in average.  That .354 would be his best full season BABIP of his pro career to date, at least since rookie league ball.

 

This team, under this hitting coach, hasn't really shown any signs of controlling strikeouts yet.  Predicting across the board increases in batting average feels a little like predicting across the board unwarranted strikeout increases for our staff too.

[Willihammer]

I think Rosario cuts down on the K's and does hit for a high average and good slg and is among the top 1-2 team leaders in WAR.

.290/.312/.480 (.792)

Edited March 28, 2016 by Willihammer

[DocBauer]

Seth, I think your numbers for Rosario are just about right on. Though I could argue his combination of speed and power should see an increase of doubles. 32 perhaps?

 

Rosario is probably always going to be a bit of a free swinger, and will probably always SO more than preferred. But I find the arguement as to his regression, mmmm, short-sighted. It seems to be based on last season only, with a dose of 2014 perhaps. I posted numbers in a post a couple months ago, and frankly, don't have time or energy to go back and find them again, but, in his milb career, the SMALLEST percentage difference between his BA and OB% was something like 46 points. While never an OB machine, he could certainly hit and he certainly DID get OB.

 

Further, when some reference his disappointing 2014 at AA, it must be remembered his entire season was thrown off by his suspension. He actually finished 2013 at AA and hit .284/ .330 in 70 games, 289 AB's. Not entirely SSS. Looking at talent, last season, and his milb career, I would think more focus should be on progress rather than regression.

[Vanimal46]

Much like diehard, I think there's going to be a slight decline at the plate for this season, but his defense will still provide value for the team. Going forward I'd love to see the OBP climb so he can be a table setter at the top of the order. 

.250 BA / .680-.700 OPS / 14 HR 

[jimbo92107]

I'm very optimistic about Eddie Rosario. He's not high-strung like Danny Santana. Instead, Rosie is completely engaged in finding ways to beat the opponent. For that reason the way to get him to show more plate discipline is to put it in terms of applying pressure to the pitcher. If you swing at junk, you're letting the pitcher off the hook. If you refuse to swing at junk outside the zone, you can force the pitcher to throw you better pitches to hit. Be just as aggressive, but make your swing zone smaller. Don't give the pitcher so many gifts. 

 

Rosie is smart. I think he'll learn to play the strike zone game better this year, and get himself something like a .289 average with about 25% fewer KO's. He's got 25 home run power, and he could easily steal 22 bases. Hard to believe he can pile up so many triples per game, but I'll say 25 triples over a full season. Not as many assists in the field; opponents can't be that dumb. 

 

One thing that surprises me is that there are still people around here who contemplate trading Rosario because of the apparent glut of outfielders. This is one of the premier young players in pro baseball. He's one of the main reasons to watch the Minnesota Twins, just to see what Rosie will do next to beat the other guys. He has an opportunistic approach, looking for little gaps in attention that let him steal an extra base, etc. Almost every game, Eddie Rosario does something that makes me smile and think, "That's the way to play baseball!" 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rosario is probably always going to be a bit of a free swinger, and will probably always SO more than preferred. But I find the arguement as to his regression, mmmm, short-sighted. It seems to be based on last season only, with a dose of 2014 perhaps.

Well, last season should be pretty important, as it represents the only time he's ever faced AAA and MLB pitchers.

 

And he had a .192 ISO last year, a mark he hadn't approached since A-ball.  To project him at .175 (second highest mark since A-ball) seems to be based a lot on last season, so why wouldn't we put equal importance on last season's K and BB rates?

 

Arcia saw his K rate jump and his BB rate fall when he reached MLB too.  It's a darn tough adjustment, and sometimes guys come out of it looking like very different players (remember when Arcia was thought of as a high-average hitter?).  And we've got a full season of evidence suggesting that will happen to Rosario too, and no evidence as of yet that he is going to revert to his pre-2014 minor league forms, judging by his monthly splits last year (and 6 K's vs zero walks this spring too, for what it's worth.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm taking the way under on Eddie. I think he's going to stumble badly as he discovers that an MLB hitter can't swing at 60% of pitches outside the zone. Maybe he gets demoted, maybe he adjusts, recovers, and has a solid second half.

 

OPS of .700 and that's only if he plays an entire season. I could easily see him hit .650 and get demoted in June.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

If it's a question of over/under Seth's prediction, I'll take the under – and I'm a strong supporter of Rosario. I too expect a SLIGHT drop-off of many of last year's numbers because the league has seen more of him now. They'll know him better. It's a matter of if he can make the adjustment.

 

it'll be even more important for him to lay off bad pitches this year – because of the lengthening of the lineup (adding Park, and last year, Sano and Buxton).  As pitchers have to face a more daunting Twins' lineup (Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Plouffe, Park, Rosario, Escobar, Suzuki and Buxton), there will be fewer holes for pitchers; thus Rosario might get better pitches – unless he continues to swing at bad stuff.

 

It's mainly up to Rosario. 

 

I see a .260/.290/.460 (.760), with 24 doubles, 16 triples, 16 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Still not bad for a full season, with a little more plate discipline and more walks.

 

[USAFChief]

I'm taking the way under on Eddie. I think he's going to stumble badly as he discovers that an MLB hitter can't swing at 60% of pitches outside the zone. Maybe he gets demoted, maybe he adjusts, recovers, and has a solid second half.

 

OPS of .700 and that's only if he plays an entire season. I could easily see him hit .650 and get demoted in June.

concur.

I see left field as the most likely spot for Kepler when he's ready.

[Teflon]

We saw Rosario's batting average on balls in play fall from the Kirby Puckett like levels he put up through July (.360) to numbers closer to league average (.300) in August and September as defenses and pitchers became more familiar with him. Rosario would need to put a LOT more balls in play in his at bats (that is to say strike out a LOT less) for there not to be a fall-off from last year's performance - let alone the improvement you're anticipating. 

 

I love watching Rosario play. His triples are a thing of beauty and he is a mensch on defense. I really hope he can cut down on his K's enough to stay an everyday player. 

[Rezzy]

I love this kid's game. If he can cut down on the Ks he will be a borderline All-Star.

 

I'll go .285/.315/.475

20 home runs, 30 doubles, 10 triples, 18 steals

[Steve J]

His ratios really bother me.  He had an almost 1:8 BB/K ratio last year, which he's bound to improve upon, I'm sure.  However, the trouble as I see it is this: how much improvement does he need in the associated skills to have a BB/K ratio where sustainable success becomes more realistic??  I doubt anyone has had sustained success walking once for every eight strikeouts, or that many have sustained hitting walking even once every four strikeouts...

 

His power is real, his Defense is real, but his contact and discipline skills may regress him into a AAAA player or 4th OF....

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

I'll trade a reduction in triples and outfield assists, for a higher OBP and more stolen bases.

[Ncgo4]

I think I'm probably nuts, but I have a feeling I can't escape that Rosario, not Sano, Park, Kepler or Buxton is going to be this year's breakout story.

[bluechipper]

 

I think I'm probably nuts, but I have a feeling I can't escape that Rosario, not Sano, Park, Kepler or Buxton is going to be this year's breakout story.

I hope you're right, as I really enjoy watching Rosario play. He had a really nice spring, and hopefully he can carry that right on into the regular season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think I'm probably nuts, but I have a feeling I can't escape that Rosario, not Sano, Park, Kepler or Buxton is going to be this year's breakout story.

It's entirely possible. Rosario has the talent to do it but his approach needs to change. If he accomplishes that goal, his ceiling is probably an .800 OPS player with plus defense.

 

In other words, a borderline elite player.

[alarp33]

It's entirely possible. Rosario has the talent to do it but his approach needs to change. If he accomplishes that goal, his ceiling is probably an .800 OPS player with plus defense.

In other words, a borderline elite player.

Since he was the 1st player that popped into my mind when I thought about low obp outfielder... Mark Trumbo has a career obp of .300, probably a reasonable guess for Rosario at this point. He's had 22, 29, 32, 34 home run seasons, and reached the .800 ops mark only 1 time, with a career mark of .758.

 

I think the .459 slg% Rosario put up last year may end up being a career high... Hard to see him ever approaching those triple numbers again.

 

I'll predict something like .270/.300/.400 this year. I agree with those that said LF is Keplers most likely spot this year

[Brock Beauchamp]

Since he was the 1st player that popped into my mind when I thought about low obp outfielder... Mark Trumbo has a career obp of .300, probably a reasonable guess for Rosario at this point. He's had 22, 29, 32, 34 home run seasons, and reached the .800 ops mark only 1 time, with a career mark of .758.

 

I think the .459 slg% Rosario put up last year may end up being a career high... Hard to see him ever approaching those triple numbers again.

 

I'll predict something like .270/.300/.400 this year. I agree with those that said LF is Keplers most likely spot this year

Agreed on most every count. Rosario has a high ceiling bit I'm skeptical he'll ever get there. Players who swing at everything have an uphill battle to success in the majors.