Article: Three Big Takeaways From Camp

[Nick Nelson]

Spending a stretch of March in Minnesota Twins camp is always illuminating in terms of what to expect in the upcoming season.

Sure, it helps to chat with players/personnel and find out how much they're willing to share, but the vibe and buzz are more telling. You pick up on certain things based on what you overhear, and what you glean from conversations with reporters who are there all month.

Last year, I came home from a week in Fort Myers with five beliefs about the team reinforced, and they were all confirmed more or less in the regular season.

Here are three of my most significant takeaways from spending time on-site last week.

 

1. The bullpen might not be so far behind.

That certainly wasn't my impression a year ago, and I didn't expect it be so this time around. Minnesota's relief corps was a weakness in 2015 and the front office did little to address it during the offseason.

However, the talent makeup of the bullpen at the end of 2015 was a lot better than at the beginning, namely due to the additions of Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen. Both look like quality high-leverage arms, and to me, May has the makings of a pivotal difference-maker. Perkins has mostly looked good this spring, and he reports that his ramped up regimen over the offseason is already paying dividends. Cautious optimism is warranted at the back end.

I personally think that the Twins would have benefited from upgrading over Casey Fien, and aiming higher than Fernando Abad on the lefty relief market, but youthful depth offsets those concerns somewhat.

While other teams around the league have focused on building power bullpens with late-inning flame-throwers, the Twins have fallen behind the curve, as reflected by their last-place rank in relief strikeouts last year. But that is changing.

Perkins and Jepsen usually work in the mid-90s with their fastballs and May can run his up to 98. Two righties vying for the final spots, Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly, have been flashing 95 and 96 with hard breaking stuff. And that's before you account for minor-leaguers like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed and Alex Meyer, who could all be bringing their upper-90s heat to The Show this summer.

The Twins are not ignorant to the league-wide trend of bullpen gas. They've just characteristically elected to fuel theirs from within.

2. The Twins really like Max Kepler.

Kepler was never going to make this team out of spring training. He has just one season of experience above Single-A and he's been a gradual developer, so the Twins weren't going to risk throwing him right into the fire. Paul Molitor – who has plenty of familiarity with the young outfielder given his years of experience as a minor-league instructor prior to taking the manager gig – basically said as much when asked, even as Kepler's stay carried into the latter portion of March. There was never much suspense.

But the fact that Kepler stuck around as long as he did, up until he was cut last Friday, is telling. A year ago, Eddie Rosario was in a similar position, surprisingly remaining in big-league camp until March 28th. While he wasn't on the Twins roster at the start of the year, it took only a month before he got the call, and he never looked back.

Kepler is a hell of a specimen, with a lithe yet muscular physique and swing mechanics that garner all sorts of complimentary cliches from the old-school ball guys around camp. I think it's safe to say we'll be seeing him up before long.

3. Yep, the Miguel Sano in right field experiment is going to be rough.

There wasn't much reason to expect anything else. Acclimating a ballplayer to a brand new position takes more than a month, and often more than a year. People make a lot of out of Sano's size, and that's certainly a factor, but the biggest problem is a lack of experience and ingrained instincts.

He didn't get a ton of action while I was there, and really hasn't all spring, but I did see him badly bungle a fairly routine liner, and there have been times where his footwork and throws have been noticeably awkward.

Look, the Twins aren't under some delusion that this is an ideal situation. They know it's not, but they feel their hand was forced. They weren't going to uproot an entrenched veteran starter like Joe Mauer or Trevor Plouffe, and the desire not to relegate a 22-year-old to DH duty is understandable.

When asked, coaches and execs tried to focus on the positive aspects of his progress (what else are the going to do?) but they're prepared and expectant of some growing pains.

The good news is that right field falls toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Relatively few balls get hit there, and many of them are easy flies and line drives that Sano shouldn't have any problem with. It's a position that impacts games less than perhaps any other.

Still, there are going to be some scary and frustrating moments out there. It will be interesting to see how pitchers react if they get bit repeatedly by the young slugger's inexperience.

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[USNMCPO]

Just hope for no injuries...

[stringer bell]

OK, where and when is Kepler going to get his chance? Comparing his situation to Rosario's is instructive, because there was a 39 and a half year old starter in right and a waiver claim starting in center. The possibilities for Rosario to get a shot were all over the place. This year, Kepler is looking at three guys--nine years out of ten Rosario's stats would have netted a team ROY, the team MVP is on the other corner, and a top five prospect in baseball is starting in center. The oldest of these guys is 24. Besides this, there are two young guys who already have experienced some success in the majors who probably would get a chance before Kepler--Santana and Arcia.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

OK, where and when is Kepler going to get his chance? Comparing his situation to Rosario's is instructive, because there was a 39 and a half year old starter in right and a waiver claim starting in center. The possibilities for Rosario to get a shot were all over the place. This year, Kepler is looking at three guys--nine years out of ten Rosario's stats would have netted a team ROY, the team MVP is on the other corner, and a top five prospect in baseball is starting in center. The oldest of these guys is 24. Besides this, there are two young guys who already have experienced some success in the majors who probably would get a chance before Kepler--Santana and Arcia.

Not to mention 1B/DH is completely clogged up as well.

 

I think the Twins are hoping Arica+Rosario both do "well" in the majors the first few months of this season and Kepler rakes in AAA for the first few months, then the Twins suddenly are in the position to make a good "baseball" trade and trade one (or both?) of Arcia and/or Rosario to fill another hole (starting Catcher? Elite young bullpen arm? High upside SP prospect?) and then open up a corner OF spot for Kepler.

I am a BIG Rosario fan, however the fact that he has the ability to be at least an above average defensive CF while being able to hit very well for a CF I think the Twins should be shopping him somewhat aggressively.

Then again though, if the Twins eventually trade Plouffe and move Sano to 3rd, then suddenly Kepler's path to the majors becomes quite a bit easier.

 

How is Kepler's D in RF? If Arica can get back to his 30 HR upside, would a OF of Arcia-Buxton-Kepler be a disaster? Or would it be "ok"

 

 

Edited March 28, 2016 by DaveW

[Dantes929]

 

OK, where and when is Kepler going to get his chance? Comparing his situation to Rosario's is instructive, because there was a 39 and a half year old starter in right and a waiver claim starting in center. The possibilities for Rosario to get a shot were all over the place. This year, Kepler is looking at three guys--nine years out of ten Rosario's stats would have netted a team ROY, the team MVP is on the other corner, and a top five prospect in baseball is starting in center. The oldest of these guys is 24. Besides this, there are two young guys who already have experienced some success in the majors who probably would get a chance before Kepler--Santana and Arcia.

I do not believe Sano is a permanent fixture out there but I guess if those three, Park, Mauer and Plouffe hit like all stars and Kepler is stuck in the minors its not all bad.    Just like if the rotation performs so well there is no room for Berrios would be a good thing.    More likely, things happen and eventually both get their chance.

[ThejacKmp]

OK, where and when is Kepler going to get his chance? Comparing his situation to Rosario's is instructive, because there was a 39 and a half year old starter in right and a waiver claim starting in center. The possibilities for Rosario to get a shot were all over the place. This year, Kepler is looking at three guys--nine years out of ten Rosario's stats would have netted a team ROY, the team MVP is on the other corner, and a top five prospect in baseball is starting in center. The oldest of these guys is 24. Besides this, there are two young guys who already have experienced some success in the majors who probably would get a chance before Kepler--Santana and Arcia.

 

1) no way Santana gets a shot before Kepler unless service time is involved. Santana is a utility guy whose best shot at an everyday role is in the middle infield.

 

2) it would be really insane if no one outside of catching and the middle infield gets hurt this year. After service time considerations are no longer an issue, he's the first guy up if park/Arcia/mauer/plouffe/Sano/Buxton/Rosario goes down. I would love if everyone stayed healthy but that's just not very realistic. He may not play every single day but molitor would find a way to get him out there 3 or 4 times a week (like he will hopefully do for Arcia).

 

3) even if that happens, if Kepler is tearing it up at aaa, you'll see someone moved in June or July (likely plouffe?) the twins love Kepler and he can absolutely force his way to the majors. Particularly if it's in conjunction with Sano moving to third if his rf defense is unplayable.

[Eris]

 

 

I am a BIG Rosario fan, however the fact that he has the ability to be at least an above average defensive CF while being able to hit very well for a CF I think the Twins should be shopping him somewhat aggressively.

 

Rosario is a gamer.  He plays the game right.  That is why Molitor likes him.  He has one blemish on his record for substance violation (marijuana?)  Why would we want to trade some like this?  He should be a fixture in the Twins outfield  for years.  The Sano experiment is just that.  An experiment and in the end Sano will be at first or a DH, the present log jam is only temporary.  

 

I look forward to a Twins outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.

[Mike Sixel]

I am baffled that Sano got the Ponder treatment this year. He should have been in RF all day, every day.

[clutterheart]

 

 

Look, the Twins aren't under some delusion that this is an ideal situation. They know it's not, but they feel their hand was forced. They weren't going to uproot an entrenched veteran starter like Joe Mauer or Trevor Plouffe, and the desire not to relegate a 22-year-old to DH duty is understandable..

 

Their hand wasn't forced.  They did it to themselves.

[mikelink45]

It is true that the clogging of good players at multiple positions can be a good thing.  Who does not want someone really good in the minors if needed.  The OLD yankees of the 1950's - 60's used to have that all the time - Berra, Blanchard, Howard at catcher! and the Twins have potentially good players at all the positions - DH, RF, 1B where the abundance is pushing good players down.  What is important is the courage of the team to assess and sit the weakest of the options and this is where I worry that the Twins will not act.   Kepler, Rosario, Buxton would make all our pitchers happy.  Park if he delivers on his promise and Sano at DH and 1B make the most sense, but we have the Mauer issue that will not be addressed in a pure baseball manner. 

[Dantes929]

 

I am baffled that Sano got the Ponder treatment this year. He should have been in RF all day, every day.

When saying this year you mean Spring Training I am right with you.   Maybe he was taking 100 fly balls every day in practice.    While this does not replicate some of the spin from live ball it would still be a reasonable starting point.    However, I have not heard they have even done this.   While I downplayed some of the concerns and said either he had it or he didn't it was predicated that he would see tons of action in ST to figure out which it is.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OK, where and when is Kepler going to get his chance? Comparing his situation to Rosario's is instructive, because there was a 39 and a half year old starter in right and a waiver claim starting in center. The possibilities for Rosario to get a shot were all over the place. This year, Kepler is looking at three guys--nine years out of ten Rosario's stats would have netted a team ROY, the team MVP is on the other corner, and a top five prospect in baseball is starting in center. The oldest of these guys is 24. Besides this, there are two young guys who already have experienced some success in the majors who probably would get a chance before Kepler--Santana and Arcia.

Rosario had a solid season, but as I mentioned in the prediction thread, he's a big stagnation candidate.  If he's hovering in the 90-something OPS+ range, it is still useful combined with plus corner defense but it is not something that will block Kepler if he repeats his AA success at Rochester.

 

When combined with Sano getting breaks from RF duty (will happen), and Buxton likely needing breaks as he experiences rookie struggles in CF, plus some propensity for injury among a few of these guys, there is opportunity to break into this outfield.

 

I'm not convinced Kepler will force his way into a spot yet this year though anyway.  Repeating his AA success immediately at AAA is a tall order.

[Shane Wahl]

Their hand was not forced with regard to Plouffe. But, damn it, hopefully it is (in terms of trading him) at some point this season (isn't another David Wright injury just waiting to happen?). Sano belongs at third, and a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler OF has me excited.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah the forced hand presentation of these choices is so terrible.  It is about May in the bullpen.  It is about Sano in RF.

 

The team willfully made those choices and should be judged by their success or failure as such.  

Edited March 28, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[REPETE]

 

OK, where and when is Kepler going to get his chance? Comparing his situation to Rosario's is instructive, because there was a 39 and a half year old starter in right and a waiver claim starting in center. The possibilities for Rosario to get a shot were all over the place. This year, Kepler is looking at three guys--nine years out of ten Rosario's stats would have netted a team ROY, the team MVP is on the other corner, and a top five prospect in baseball is starting in center. The oldest of these guys is 24. Besides this, there are two young guys who already have experienced some success in the majors who probably would get a chance before Kepler--Santana and Arcia.

Before we anoint Kepler as an immediate call-up, let's see how he does in AAA.  I'm very excited about this kid, and can't wait to wear my German heritage on my sleeve, but he's had one great year.  He could use some time in AAA.

Besides, baseball has a way of creating opportunities for players.  Let's not forget, Buxton has not shown a great ability to stay on the field for long stretches.  The injuries he's had don't point towards chronic problems, but the injury history is extensive, with all sorts of ailments.  If Max's playing in AAA demands a call-up, there will almost certainly be room available somewhere, somehow.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Yeah the forced hand presentation of these choices is so terrible.  It is about May in the bullpen.  It is about Sano in RF.

 

The team willfully made those choices and should be judged by their success or failure as such.  

The choice that they willfully made was deciding that they didn't want Sano to be a DH at age 22. Do you disagree with that? Or with not trading Plouffe when he had no market?

May to the bullpen wasn't about a forced hand, it was about optimal use of resources. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The choice that they willfully made was deciding that they didn't want Sano to be a DH at age 22.

To be fair, they could have made that decision without precluding DH from being an option for Sano for the immediate future.  (As well as 3B, where Sano has apparently been ruled out of even backup duty.)

Edited March 28, 2016 by spycake

[Mike Sixel]

then make Plouffe the DH, and put Sano at 3B....and don't bid a on guy you didn't expect to land, that can only play DH or 1B? 

 

They made these decisions themselves. They get to choose who plays where, and at what level of the minors/majors. No one else makes those decisions, no one.*

 

*other than injuries, of course, forcing decisions to be made, but they still get to decide what to do after one.

[Blackjack]

 

Besides, baseball has a way of creating opportunities for players.  Let's not forget, Buxton has not shown a great ability to stay on the field for long stretches.  The injuries he's had don't point towards chronic problems, but the injury history is extensive, with all sorts of ailments.  If Max's playing in AAA demands a call-up, there will almost certainly be room available somewhere, somehow.

This.  Buxton will get hurt or play his way back to AAA, clearing a spot for Kepler, provided Kepler is raking.  Or you could see Rosario goto center and Arcia see more playing time when Buxton gets sent down. When the inevitably injury comes along, the player(s) playing the best will get their shot. Depth is a good thing!!!

[Dantes929]

 

The choice that they willfully made was deciding that they didn't want Sano to be a DH at age 22. Do you disagree with that? Or with not trading Plouffe when he had no market?

May to the bullpen wasn't about a forced hand, it was about optimal use of resources. 

If he hits like he is touted to I would be just fine with Sano at DH until Mauer is gone anyway.    I honestly think the Twins were fine with him at DH as well until Park happened.    The issue really is as much about Park as it is about Sano.    If Park fails then we are back to Sano at DH and Arcia or Kepler in right.   If Park, Plouffe, Mauer and Sano all have good offensive years I think people will be more forgiving of poor right field defense.    If any of them struggle then it changes the equation.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The choice that they willfully made was deciding that they didn't want Sano to be a DH at age 22. Do you disagree with that? Or with not trading Plouffe when he had no market?

May to the bullpen wasn't about a forced hand, it was about optimal use of resources. 

 

They could have moved Plouffe.  They could have kept Sano at DH.  They could have moved Mauer to DH and played Sano at 1B.

 

Quit trying to give the team excuses.  They had a multitude of options.  These are the choices they made.  They chose not to sign any relievers.  They chose not to trade for any relievers.  They chose to give Duffy and Nolasco preference to May in the rotation.   They chose to move the 22 year old and not the 29 year old to the OF.  They chose to sign Park.

 

We may judge, at the end of this, that their choices were correct.  But they weren't backed into a freaking corner, that's so preposterous.

Edited March 28, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[nicksaviking]

The Royals are releasing Brian Duensing. Small sample size obviously, but he did fairly well in his 9 innings this spring.

 

I could see the front office tempted on this one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Royals are releasing Brian Duensing. Small sample size obviously, but he did fairly well in his 9 innings this spring.

 

I could see the front office tempted on this one.

 

I don't think they would do that.  If they wanted Duensing back, or Cotts, or whomever, they would have done it long ago.  They like the group they have, for better or worse, and it's not in character for them to deviate from their plans this early (absent a major injury or something).

Edited March 28, 2016 by spycake

[Platoon]

When you stack your roster with hit first/field second corner players, it is a conscious decision. It's not bad luck, or unavoidable. My basic philosophy of baseball for years has been: You can't beat teams to death with your bats. Hitting comes and goes, often, and quickly. Pitching first, defense second, hitting third! The Twins are set up completely backwards.

[Nick Nelson]

 

They could have moved Plouffe.  They could have kept Sano at DH.  They could have moved Mauer to DH and played Sano at 1B.

 

Quit trying to give the team excuses.  They had a multitude of options.  

Could have, could have, could have. So what? They didn't do those things. When they decided they wanted to gamble on Park, and couldn't find a taker for Plouffe, they determined that Sano in RF was the best option for the time being. Plouffe is a better third baseman and it's not clear he'd be a much better right fielder.

 

Like I said, they know it's not ideal. But it also means that they have the bats of Sano, Plouffe and Park all in the lineup. They've deemed that offensive upside to be worth a probable defensive liability at the least important position on the field.

 

You might disagree, but it's not a ridiculous line of thinking. Nor is letting your dominant in-house reliever serve as a setup man rather than tethering yourself to an expensive aging free agent who probably isn't as good.

 

This organization has done some odd and inexplicable things in the past. Neither of these situations fall into that category. 

[jimmer]

 

They could have moved Plouffe.  They could have kept Sano at DH.  They could have moved Mauer to DH and played Sano at 1B.

 

Quit trying to give the team excuses.  They had a multitude of options.  These are the choices they made.  They chose not to sign any relievers.  They chose not to trade for any relievers.  They chose to give Duffy and Nolasco preference to May in the rotation.   They chose to move the 22 year old and not the 29 year old to the OF.  They chose to sign Park.

 

We may judge, at the end of this, that their choices were correct.  But they weren't backed into a freaking corner, that's so preposterous.

exactly.

[DiscGolfer]

 

They could have moved Plouffe.  They could have kept Sano at DH.  They could have moved Mauer to DH and played Sano at 1B.

 

Quit trying to give the team excuses.  They had a multitude of options.  These are the choices they made.  They chose not to sign any relievers.  They chose not to trade for any relievers.  They chose to give Duffy and Nolasco preference to May in the rotation.   They chose to move the 22 year old and not the 29 year old to the OF.  They chose to sign Park.

 

We may judge, at the end of this, that their choices were correct.  But they weren't backed into a freaking corner, that's so preposterous.

They weren't backed into a corner at all.  The problem is, if you want to call it that, is that they have a lot of players that are major league ready or close to it and had to make some tough decisions, time will tell if they work out or not.

 

 I foresee the Twins being active in the trade market come deadline time there will be a lot of potential moves they can make that will be addition by subtraction while adding more prospects to the system.

[TheLeviathan]

You might disagree, but it's not a ridiculous line of thinking. Nor is letting your dominant in-house reliever serve as a setup man rather than tethering yourself to an expensive aging free agent who probably isn't as good.

 

This organization has done some odd and inexplicable things in the past. Neither of these situations fall into that category.

 

We don't know how their choices will work out. But it was their choice to do all of the things you listed. They weren't backed into any corners or without alternatives. They willfully walked into their decisions.

 

They deemed this the best way to go - fail or succeed it was their call. We should judge the results as such, not start giving them preseason cover that this was somehow the only way things could be.

[TheLeviathan]

They weren't backed into a corner at all.  The problem is, if you want to call it that, is that they have a lot of players that are major league ready or close to it and had to make some tough decisions, time will tell if they work out or not.

 

 I foresee the Twins being active in the trade market come deadline time there will be a lot of potential moves they can make that will be addition by subtraction while adding more prospects to the system.

Absolutely, at the end of the day all the mistakes I worry they made could turn out to have been brilliant maneuvers by the team. I just take major issue with tossing the team shade already for their roster management.

[Nick Nelson]

 

We don't know how their choices will work out. But it was their choice to do all of the things you listed. They weren't backed into any corners or without alternatives. They willfully walked into their decisions.

Obviously. I'm not sure what you're arguing against. When I made the comment about their hand being forced, I meant that once trading Plouffe proved not to be a viable option, they didn't really have any option other than putting Sano in RF. Clearly I'm aware they assembled the personnel that put them in their current position.