Article: May’s Mentality Much Needed In Pen

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As a pitcher on the MLB staff, he absolutely is locked in... Unless there's been some development of another team wanting him for a bucket of sunflower seeds. 

You were discussing the starting rotation, no?  Trevor May is already on the MLB staff, that is not the issue at hand.

[alarp33]

 

Nonsense.  Planning for the future is a part of running any business.  And right now, you personally liking it or not, the starting rotation is full and there are one or two MiLB pitchers who show some promise.  Right now, for the Twins, that's May in the bullpen bridging the gap between starter and closer and, potentially, from Perkins. 

 

Yeah this makes no sense. The starting rotation is not full with pitchers better than him, which is kinda the point.  

 

Part of any business? So a company should move their best salesman to the IT department because they have enough salesman?

[tobi0040]

 

How many quality pitches does May have?  I don't recall May using a split-fingered FB or a curve.  Yet there are an abundance of posters screaming that May belongs in the rotation!  based on what evidence--a one-pitch pitcher?  His Pelfrey-ish statistics from 2015?  His BP stats from 2014?  Give May credit for intelligence--he would not eliminate quality pitches from his repertoire.  

 

May had 2 more k's per 9 than four of the five guys that will start the year in the rotation (Duffy's SSS aside)

 

Not sure whether he uses a split finger is the right metric here. 

Edited March 24, 2016 by tobi0040

[SweetOne69]

According to Fangraphs May throws a Fastball, Slider, Curve and Change.  It looks like his FB% stays pretty constant whether he starts or relieves.  He pretty much abandoned the slider in the pen, but there was a slight increase in the curve and change.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Eliminating his slider to enhance his strikeouts?  The slider is a strikeout pitch.  It is often the #1 pitch for a relief pitcher.  At the very least it serves as a change-of-pace pitch to complement a fastball.

If you think that is universally true, you're mistaken. May's best three pitches are his fastball, changeup and curve. Plenty of pitchers don't have good sliders. 

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, if the rotation is stocked with "quality depth."  But I'm pretty sure Hughes and Santana will be there whether they are good or not that good.  Nolasco seems to still be in the pole position for another spot.  Gibson and Milone probably don't need to improve to keep their spots either.  That's the kind of rotation that you hope repeats 2015 but probably won't improve on it.

 

Could be worse, of course, but it doesn't exactly absolve the handling of May.

Quality depth in the way of #3-#5 type pitchers.  No #1 or #2 type in the rotation.  The two who could be those guys, one is now a bullpen guy, the other goes to AAA. 

 

The only reason May needs to be in the pen is because Ryan did jack to improve the bullpen, the self-admitted #1 priority this offseason.

Edited March 24, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

Nonsense.  Planning for the future is a part of running any business.  And right now, you personally liking it or not, the starting rotation is full and there are one or two MiLB pitchers who show some promise.  Right now, for the Twins, that's May in the bullpen bridging the gap between starter and closer and, potentially, from Perkins. 

Twins are always thinking about the future.  Santana and Hunter pointed that out in 2007.  It's always about the future with Ryan.

[SwainZag]

 

Quality depth in the way of #3-#5 type pitchers.  No #1 or #2 type in the rotation.  The two who could be those guys, one is now a bullpen guy, the other goes to AAA. 

 

The only reason May needs to be in the pen is because Ryan did jack to improve the bullpen, the self-admitted #1 priority this offseason.

 

Or that TR decided that May would be more valuable in the pen after seeing his numbers flourish in that role last year, instead of signing a $5-$7M free agent to a multi year deal because of the other starters that are already on the team.  

[jimmer]

 

Or that TR decided that May would be more valuable in the pen after seeing his numbers flourish in that role last year, instead of signing a $5-$7M free agent to a multi year deal because of the other starters that are already on the team.  

wouldn't he have known those numbers and seen that performance before he declared, when the offseason started, that improving the pen was the team's #1 offseason priority?

 

I will agree money stopped him from bothering to improve the pen from the FA pool.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I agree that the team has cornered itself, but what were they supposed to do? They're locked into Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson for better or worse. I didn't agree with bringing Milone back, but there's some infatuation with having a left handed pitcher on staff... Where's the opportunity for May to be a starter?  

 

But, as you kind of admit, these are all self-imposed problems.  The team should be having Santana, Hughes, Gibson, and May in the rotation and had a three way competition for the fifth spot.  

 

They chose instead to move one of their upside starters to the bullpen, admittedly as a temporary act.  It's pretty rare for guys to effectively bounce back and forth, so either the team is deluding themselves about May going back or they are deliberately feeding Trevor May false hope.  

 

Either way, they created this problem with their own choices: infatuation with a lefty starter, non-spending/trading during the offseason on relievers, and over spending on mediocre starters in FA in the past.  All of that has lead to a real wasted opportunity to utilize Trevor May in the best position to help this team - pitching more innings as a starter.  

[Han Joelo]

As far as the title and premise of the article goes, I applaud May for his attitude.  He drew a short straw but he's using it to drink some tasty lemonade he's making.  Some say that relievers are failed starters, but no one says all failed starters make good relievers.  And I would say not all good starters make good relievers.  At least I'd say that to myself if I were May.  He's looking at being able to make a lot of meaningful contributions to the team's success.

 

I'd also channel John Smoltz, Rick Aguilera, Adam Wainright, the kid from Toronto (egads, theyre leaving him in the bullpen in favor of J.A. Happ!) I'd even, gulp, channel Liam Hendricks.  Relish the opportunity to be a fireman, and maybe take those lessons back to the starter's mound with him when he goes back to it.

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

Looking at expected outcomes, May is probably a win better than Milone as a starter this year . . . not trivial, but also a difference May can partially or even mostly erase with strong performances in high-leverage situations.

 

The problem though is that May has legitimate upside that Milone and some others do not. The Twins need that upside in the rotation, because what they have now isn't good enough to contend.

[jimmer]

We don't know for sure May is going to be thrust into high leverage situations.  Ryan hinted at long reliever when the decision was made.

 

Last year, he had a hair over 100 plate appearances that were high leverage and some of that had to be as a starter, right?

[tobi0040]

We don't know for sure May is going to be thrust into high leverage situations. Ryan hinted at long reliever when the decision was made.

 

Last year, he had a hair over 100 plate appearances that were high leverage and some of that had to be as a starter, right?

You are killing the team need narrative with your facts. Please stop.

[DocBauer]

Could be great. Could be just a decent mid-rotation starter with efficiency issues, as opposed to a top-tier power arm in the bullpen. I'm not sure why everyone is so fixated on the one possibility. It's not like he was an elite starting pitching prospect.

 

 

Nick, I've been on record stating I get May in the pen for NOW due to rotation depth and numbers. (Not even including Nolasco) But the problem isn't what May might not be in the rotation, it's about what he could be and not getting a chance to be that guy.

 

I respect Milone and he could be OK for us. But I'm not obsessed with a lefty in the rotation over a better RH'er. And the Twins have certainly had difficulty the past several years producing young SP studs...not necessarily a #1...who could fill a rotation spot. May happens to be a hard throwing, strapping young fellow who throws hard, has upper rotation potential, would seem capable of being a 200 IP arm, was throwing well in 2015 and IMPROVING as the season went along, and yet he was thrown in to the bullpen why? Because Ryan was reluctant to acquire a second option besides Jepsen. Why? Banking ahead of time on prospects? Even if you allow that for last season, what about this off season? We honestly couldn't afford a trade or FA contract for a quality bullpen arm why?

 

With Duffey struggling a bit, for whatever reason, and Berrios not quite ready, are the Twins really better, short term and long term, with May out of the rotation rather than in it?

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you think that is universally true, you're mistaken. May's best three pitches are his fastball, changeup and curve. Plenty of pitchers don't have good sliders.

Heh, yes. A bad/mediocre slider is simply a slow fastball that moves a little.

 

A good slider is something else entirely.

[Vanimal46]

But, as you kind of admit, these are all self-imposed problems.  The team should be having Santana, Hughes, Gibson, and May in the rotation and had a three way competition for the fifth spot.  

 

They chose instead to move one of their upside starters to the bullpen, admittedly as a temporary act.  It's pretty rare for guys to effectively bounce back and forth, so either the team is deluding themselves about May going back or they are deliberately feeding Trevor May false hope.  

 

Either way, they created this problem with their own choices: infatuation with a lefty starter, non-spending/trading during the offseason on relievers, and over spending on mediocre starters in FA in the past.  All of that has lead to a real wasted opportunity to utilize Trevor May in the best position to help this team - pitching more innings as a starter.

 

In the hypothetical rotation, when would Berrios have a shot at making the team? If May is back into the fold as a starter, wouldn't that hold back Berrios another year at least? He would be at best 3rd in line behind the losers of the Nolasco, Milone, Duffey battle.

 

I'm willing to bet they are giving May false hope right now that he can still compete for a spot in the rotation. They were pretty quick to let him know of his role. I guess only insiders would know if May had a real chance of starting this year. From my recliner it didn't appear to be a true open competition for him against the others. I'd predict between now and 2018 when Nolasco and Santana comes off the books May has less than 10 starts.

 

If we could go back and not sign one of Nolasco, Santana or Hughes I'd be all for it. They're becoming a problem now for Berrios, Duffey and May getting their chance in the rotation. It's only going to get worse in 2017-2018 when more upside arms are ready for the big show.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

May was an option, he just wasn't the winner.

on what basis? You can't take everything TR says at face value.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

In the hypothetical rotation, when would Berrios have a shot at making the team? If May is back into the fold as a starter, wouldn't that hold back Berrios another year at least? He would be at best 3rd in line behind the losers of the Nolasco, Milone, Duffey battle.

 

I'm willing to bet they are giving May false hope right now that he can still compete for a spot in the rotation. They were pretty quick to let him know of his role. I guess only insiders would know if May had a real chance of starting this year. From my recliner it didn't appear to be a true open competition for him against the others. I'd predict between now and 2018 when Nolasco and Santana comes off the books May has less than 10 starts.

 

If we could go back and not sign one of Nolasco, Santana or Hughes I'd be all for it. They're becoming a problem now for Berrios, Duffey and May getting their chance in the rotation. It's only going to get worse in 2017-2018 when more upside arms are ready for the big show.

Why can't Santana, Gibson, and Hughes be 3,4,5 in the rotation? Berrios 1, May 2. It's not like the rotation was very good last year or any of the years in the previous 4

[DiscGolfer]

It's too bad we can't go back to 2013 when all of the starting pitchers were AAAA quality then May would be the #1 starter for sure.

 

Actually having some decent depth in the rotation for once is a good thing.

 

I don't understand the assumption that May would be a top end starter if in the rotation.  May's numbers as a reliever were better than when he was a starter last year.

 

I think May helps the team more if he's in the bullpen than if he's a starter.

[alarp33]

 

In the hypothetical rotation, when would Berrios have a shot at making the team? If May is back into the fold as a starter, wouldn't that hold back Berrios another year at least? He would be at best 3rd in line behind the losers of the Nolasco, Milone, Duffey battle.

 

 

I think you answered your own question with the 3 names at the end of your paragraph.  Of course none of them should or would prevent Berrios from getting a crack early this season. 

[dxpavelka]

 

Huh?  You don't see a lot of mid-tier guys traded, particularly not on multi-year deals.  They can be replaced every winter, either with other FA or internal options (just as you recommend for the Twins).

The kicker to that is that even those guys are big money guys in the eyes of the Twins, they are actually fairly affordable in the eyes of big market teams.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Yeah this makes no sense. The starting rotation is not full with pitchers better than him, which is kinda the point.  

 

Part of any business? So a company should move their best salesman to the IT department because they have enough salesman?

The rotation has guys that have lot's of money and a few years left on their contract.  Would it be smart business to just toss them aside and swallow the contracts?  No.  No business would do something like that.  You take that young pitcher [who, BTW, had success in the bullpen last year] and leave him there.  That's maximizing what you've got.  And I'd probably add, under these circumstances. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The rotation has guys that have lot's of money and a few years left on their contract.  Would it be smart business to just toss them aside and swallow the contracts?  No.  No business would do something like that.  You take that young pitcher [who, BTW, had success in the bullpen last year] and leave him there.  That's maximizing what you've got.  And I'd probably add, under these circumstances. 

 

Not cutting bait on bad investments, because you have committed money to them in the future is exactly what badly run businesses do every day. It is a drop in the bucket to bring up a better, younger, player. But, as you point out, most businesses would make the wrong decision.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The rotation has guys that have lot's of money and a few years left on their contract.  Would it be smart business to just toss them aside and swallow the contracts?  No.  No business would do something like that.  You take that young pitcher [who, BTW, had success in the bullpen last year] and leave him there.  That's maximizing what you've got.  And I'd probably add, under these circumstances. 

The rotation isn't completely full, though.  We have no long-term commitment to Gibson or Milone, and the end of Nolasco's commitment is in sight too.  Clearing one spot isn't that hard to do, we were basically ready to do it for Duffey.

[Nick Nelson]

I like how so many people are just assuming that May is a No. 2 starter, based on... who knows.

 

He hasn't shown that kind of ability as a starter in the majors, save for one short stretch, and he was never a top-tier pitching prospect in the minors.

 

I know, I know. "Now we'll never know!" But the downside of finding that out is reducing your starter depth (some SP is probably gone if May is in the rotation) and severely weakening your bullpen. And if May proves not to be vastly superior than the alternative starting option, it could prove to be a very costly error. Very costly. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like how so many people are just assuming that May is a No. 2 starter, based on... who knows.

 

He hasn't shown that kind of ability as a starter in the majors, save for one short stretch, and he was never a top-tier pitching prospect in the minors.

 

I know, I know. "Now we'll never know!" But the downside of finding that out is reducing your starter depth (some SP is probably gone if May is in the rotation) and severely weakening your bullpen. And if May proves not to be vastly superior than the alternative starting option, it could prove to be a very costly error. Very costly. 

Personally, I don't assume he's a No. 2.  But it would be nice to give him a chance.

 

It's pretty clear we're already willing to move Nolasco to the pen, so there's your rotation spot for May without reducing starting depth.

 

And the only reason it would severely weaken the pen is because we didn't sign anybody else for the pen, counting on May to be there.  Pick up Mark Lowe this winter, or Benoit, etc. and all of a sudden, May isn't critical to the pen.  (And if he eventually has to move there anyway, he could be part of a really great pen.)

[alarp33]

 

I like how so many people are just assuming that May is a No. 2 starter, based on... who knows.

 

He hasn't shown that kind of ability as a starter in the majors, save for one short stretch, and he was never a top-tier pitching prospect in the minors.

 

 

Well he had a 10.5 k/9 rate in the minors, and was a top 100 prospect, for one... and seemed to finally work out his control issues before being put in the pen. 

 

He's pitched 25 games in the majors, the last ~10 of which were pretty good.  

 

Personally, I like how some people are just assuming May does not have #2/3 starter potential based on... I don't know, his 1st 15 Major League starts?

 

PS: God forbid we risked losing this unbelievable starting pitcher depth by removing Nolasco or Milone from the rotation

Edited March 25, 2016 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

NO ONE IS ASSUMING THAT. We've been over this. NO ONE IS ASSUMING HE IS A 2. The straw man is tiresome. It really is.

 

Some of us think he has that upside, and we'd like to bet on the upside for a change. You agree with the Twins, bet on the low side play. That's fine, that's their right. Some of us just don't agree.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

He hasn't shown that kind of ability as a starter in the majors, save for one short stretch, and he was never a top-tier pitching prospect in the minors.

 

He's made 25 freaking starts, this argument is so terrible.  

 

Let's dump Buxton too if we're going to use this kind of argument.